Anu Solomon (Arizona), Eddie Vanderdoes (UCLA), Juju Smith-Schuster (USC)

The optics surrounding programs in the South are much different than those in the North. USC – the Pac-12’s most historically successful program, one that should theoretically be a playoff contender – has been a dysfunctional mess in the post-Pete Carroll era: sanctions and the hilariously ill-fated Lane Kiffin hire set the Trojans back and their former AD Pat Haden handled the Steve Sarkisian situation very badly. Now Clay Helton, a pretty uninspiring promotion from within the Carroll tree, is the head coach, handpicked by Haden. Their crosstown rivals have things better, as Jim Mora has gone 37-16 in four years at UCLA, but an 8-5 result last season is cause for some concern (though there were plenty of injuries, to be fair), as is the Bruins’ slide down the division standings year-over-year. Those two programs are the most well-equipped for success in the Pac-12 South due to natural advantages, but the odds of playoff contention seem remote.

Each of the other four programs in the division have their own questions – though Utah is definitely in a better place than the other three. Both Arizona schools regressed mightily last season: U of A followed up a New Year’s Six appearance with a 3-6 conference record in 2015 (and Rich Rodriguez had to fire DC Jeff Casteel after the season), ASU had two ten-win seasons in ‘13 and ‘14 before winning six games last season – and Todd Graham’s synonymous for fleeing programs for better jobs at the earliest available opportunity, though he’s now entering his fifth year at Arizona State. Colorado has been wandering in the wilderness since joining the Pac-12 and that’s unlikely to change any time soon. Kyle Wittingham has been at Utah for over a decade and once went undefeated in the Mountain West – two consecutive losing seasons put him on the hot seat, but 9-4 in ‘14 and a 10-3 showing in ‘15 (including a bowl win over much-hated BYU) has him safe again.

Of the six teams in the Pac-12 South, Utah’s the only one who’s on an upward trajectory entering 2016 and they have to replace very productive starting quarterbacks and running backs. UCLA’s a strong candidate for a rebound and USC always has plenty of talent. Still, the South looks to be the worse of the two divisions in the Pac-12, one without an obvious frontrunner or a team that stacks up well for a playoff run.

[After the JUMP, team previews]

Clay Helton has a nice mix of returning talent at USC, but can he coach them up?

USC

Somehow Clay Helton has been at USC since 2010, when Lane Kiffin hired him as the quarterback’s coach. He was actually promoted to offensive coordinator shortly before Kiffin’s demise, and retained his job after Ed Orgeron was passed over for the head coaching position (the DACOACHO Era at USC was too beautiful to live) and Steve Sarkisian was brought in from Washington. Helton stayed on and replaced Sarkisian as the interim coach after Sark’s career was derailed by alcoholism – he went 5-2 over the rest of the regular season (including a huge upset of Utah and a big win over rival UCLA) before the interim tag was removed. In the Pac-12 championship, they were routed by Stanford; in the bowl game, they lost to Wisconsin by a late field goal (coincidentally, UCLA also lost to a Big Ten West team – Nebraska – in their bowl game). The hire was met with skepticism and Helton’s first full season features a brutal schedule: they open in Arlington against Alabama, draw each of Stanford, Oregon, and Washington from the North, and host Notre Dame to close the regular season. If USC has a successful year, they’ll definitely have earned it.

As the effects of the Reggie Bush sanctions wear off, USC will look as talented as ever on paper. They must replace quarterback Cody Kessler – who had a pretty great season, even if it somehow didn’t garner that much attention – but whoever wins the job will be surrounded by a top-flight supporting cast: JuJu Smith-Schuster is a receiver who’s big, fast, mean as hell (and I mean that as the utmost compliment) and probably a very high draft pick, Ronald Jones II and Justin Davis form a powerful one-two punch at running back, and several offensive linemen return, including mammoth right tackle and potential All-American Zach Banner. The quarterback battle seems to have come down to Max Browne (a vet who has spent most of his career biding his time behind Kessler) and Sam Darnold (a redshirt freshman who’s more of a dual threat than Browne). The consistency in scheme will probably be pretty helpful, as Helton promoted Tee Martin from within to be the new offensive coordinator. Of course, bad QB play can sink even the most talented offenses, so the Trojans are hoping at least one of the two works out.

The story is similar on defense: Helton promoted from within (Clancy Pendergast replaces Justin Wilcox as DC) and there are five- and high four-stars up and down the depth chart. Adoree’ Jackson is the headliner: he’s an elite corner, but also returns kicks and punts, plays occasional snaps on offense, and still stays active in track and field, where he’s an Olympic hopeful. There are other playmakers in the secondary, but the loss of Su’a Cravens, a safety / linebacker hybrid who left early for the NFL, is a major hit to the middle of the back seven. Pendergast looks to move towards something resembling a 5-2 front on defense, which will feature a ton of unproven defensive linemen (something that Alabama is eagerly anticipating, I’m sure).

If it seems like USC is far removed from the success of the Carroll era, it’s because they are – since his departure, they’ve gone 8-5, 10-2, 7-6, 10-4, 9-4, and 8-6. USC will always have a great talent pool to draw from, but poor coaching hires will limit the program’s ceiling. Bringing in some new blood after a tumultuous half-decade may have seemed wise, but USC seems loathe to do that – even though they got rid of AD Pat Haden, they went with Lynn Swan, another former Trojan with no AD experience, as his replacement. Helton deserves some patience: the defense is still in flux and unless the new quarterback hits the ground running, there will be challenges there as well. The schedule is guaranteed to give USC a few losses, but because of their strengths they’re as good of a bet to win the division as anyone.

QB Josh Rosen (and by the way, adidas’s tweaks to UCLA’s classic uniforms are atrocious)

UCLA

While Jim Mora’s tenure at UCLA has more or less been a success, he’s yet to come close to seriously challenging for a conference title after coming a field goal short in the Pac-12 Title game in his first season in Westwood. In 2015, UCLA had a contender on paper, as the Bruins had a ton of gifted starters on both sides of the ball returning and a top flight freshman QB at the helm. While Josh Rosen was the ostensible weak spot entering the season, he posted pretty solid numbers – 3,668 yards, 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions – and was a freshman All-American. The Bruins went just 8-5 though, and gave up at least 31 points in each of their losses – the worst was a complete meltdown on that side of the ball in a 56-35 loss to Stanford. By then, UCLA had lost three stellar defenders – defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes, linebacker (and occasional running back) Myles Jack, and corner Fabian Moreau – to season-ending injuries. Many others on both sides of the ball missed games at different times, often leading to emergency situations at certain spots. In that way, it was a pretty unlucky season for Mora and company.

The coaching carousel saw offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone depart for the same job at Texas A&M, and the Bruins’ offensive identity as a relatively simple single-back offense featuring several receivers may be a thing of the past. Whatever scheme Mora and new OC Kennedy Polamalu come up with, they’ll have a tremendous asset in Rosen, who seems fast-tracked for a prolific four-year career and a shot at being one of UCLA’s all-time best quarterbacks, in time. Unfortunately he won’t be surrounded with the type of talent he was a year ago, as the Bruins lost a great running back in Paul Perkins as well as a trio of excellent receiving threats and three starting offensive linemen. Mora has recruited well at UCLA, so there will be some raw talent coming up through the ranks, but most of it is very unproven. The defense should be a strength this year after the return of Vanderdoes – a potential All-American – and a tremendous secondary that features Moreau and two top-tier safeties in Randall Goforth and Jaleel Wadood. In response to last season’s struggles, the Bruins will be moving from a 3-4 to a 4-3, which will also be of help considering the losses at linebacker, including Jack. It’s worth noting that former Penn State DC Tom Bradley was able to land at UCLA, a great hire by Mora.

The schedule does UCLA few favors: they open the season on the road against Mazzone’s new team (A&M) before traveling to BYU and hosting Stanford within the first month of the season. Even if the new personnel gels quickly, making it out of September with only one loss would be a big surprise. From there though, the Bruins could very well still contend for the South – and a potential rematch against Stanford in the conference championship game – as they host both USC and Utah later in the year. In any case, there’s little chance that UCLA will be a playoff contender, as this projects to be somewhat of a rebuilding year, especially on offense. With better injury luck, they could have a better record than last year though.

Lowell Lotulelei is one of the best interior defensive linemen in the country

Utah

Last year was a major breakthrough for Utah, who posted their first majorly successful Pac-12 season since joining the league (and it’s worth noting that the other newcomer, Colorado, hasn’t even come close). The season-opening win over Michigan appreciated in value over the course of the season, and the Utes quickly entered the playoff contention by surgically dismantling the Oregon defense en route to a 62-20 upset in Eugene. A loss to USC set the Utes back a little bit, but they still sat at 8-1 with a reasonable shot at the playoff before being upset by Arizona in double overtime. They followed that up with a baffling 17-9 home loss to an injury-decimated UCLA team, which took them out of a spot in the conference championship game. Even though those two weeks prevented Utah from higher aspirations than the Las Vegas Bowl, it still was a very successful season for Kyle Wittingham and the Utes – and it’s easy to consider them to be on the same level as USC and UCLA in the mess atop the South.

Perhaps there should be more optimism surrounding the Utes entering 2016, but the question marks – namely the departures of Utah’s starting (and backup) quarterback, as well as their star running back Devontae Booker. Additionally, their top receiving target, Kenneth Scott, graduates, and an impressive freshman in the slot, Britain Covey, will leave the program for his Mormon Mission for a few years. A strong offensive line with a good mix of returning experience goes a long way, but the Utes will be forced to break in a ton of new skill position players. Former Washington QB Troy Williams is the presumed frontrunner to win the job and he won’t have the luxury of a reliable target or a proven ground game. The biggest losses on defense come at linebacker, but the return of Lowell Lotulelei and Hunter Dimick on the defensive line ensures that the Utes will have a strong front seven regardless – Lotulelei (the younger brother of Star, former Ute and current NFLer) in particular has the potential to be a dominant force inside. The secondary should be fine.

Stanford is once again absent from the schedule, which could be the biggest advantage Utah has in terms of its ability to contend in the Pac-12 South – an early contest against USC will probably produce the consensus frontrunner and the Utes could very well pull a road upset. It’s hard to tell if last year was an aberration or not, but Utah seems perfectly fine, if somewhat limited in terms of their ceiling. A lot rides on Williams, which might be a shaky proposition.

MFW the comments devolve into a discussion that’s been had a million times

Arizona

Now entering his fifth season in Tuscon, Rich Rodriguez is at a crossroads. Rumored to be a candidate for the open South Carolina job (and if he was passed over in favor of Will Muschamp, that says a lot about whoever’s doing the hiring at USC East), he didn’t leave the school that have him a chance after flaming out here and now he’s tasked with rebuilding things after the bottom fell out on defense and Jeff Casteel was fired. The point totals surrendered in losses – 56, 55, 45, 49, 38, and 52 – were bad enough, but the Wildcats even conceded at least 30 points in four of their seven wins. Any improvement for U of A will be contingent on an adequate defense, and that defense was so far from adequate a year ago that it’s hard to think that there will be enough of a jump to get there. Ironically, they had a former All-American linebacker in Scooby Wright III, but he wasn’t impactful enough even when he was healthy, and he’s now gone to the NFL. Rodriguez was noncommittal about a scheme change on defense and didn’t have a spring game, so what the new defense looks like is anyone’s guess.

Unsurprisingly, the Wildcat offense – still controlled by the Rodriguez / Magee / Smith braintrust – will probably be pretty good again. Anu Solomon, now a junior, led Arizona to a road win over national runner-up Oregon and a Fiesta Bowl appearance as a freshman, but suffered from injuries a year ago. Solomon is perhaps more of a passer than Rodriguez’s offense would theoretically dictate, though he’s more than capable of running the staple zone-reads. Trey Griffey (son of Ken Griffey, Jr.) is Solomon’s biggest asset in the passing game after the departure of Cayleb Jones, and Solomon will often be flanked by running back Nick Wilson, who has shown promise when healthy. Regardless of the personnel, it’s a pretty safe bet to assume that the U of A offense will be average at worst under Rodriguez. Of course, the offense has to be amazing the compensate for the level of the 2015 Arizona defense, and it wasn’t close last year. Remaining a bowl team is the most realistic goal for this team, and a pretty attainable one.

Coach Todd Graham screaming at one of his best players, LB Salamo Fiso

Arizona State

The Sun Devils were coming off of two consecutive ten-win seasons and entered 2015 ranked in the top 15, but an uncompetitive season-opening loss of a not-that-good Texas A&M team was a harbinger of things to come, as ASU finished with a 6-7 record. Todd Graham has outlasted even the most generous predictions for the length of his tenure at Arizona State, and last year was an alarming step back after he’d built the program into one of the better ones in the Pac-12. Even more alarming is that, even though they weren’t good last season, ASU is still tasked with replacing a lot: starting quarterback Mike Bercovici, running back and slot receiver D.J. Foster, and safety Jordan Simone (the second-leading tackler in the Pac-12 (yes it’s bad when your free safety makes a ton of tackles)) as well as several others graduated, leaving mostly new faces in key spots after a disappointing season. Assuming that the newly-promoted starters weren’t good enough to displace underperforming players last season, it’s hard to see ASU making a move up the division pecking order in 2016.

Colorado

I’ll preview Colorado as part of the series looking at Michigan’s opponents. Spoiler alert: they’re not good.