Nigel Hayes [Getty]

PREVIOUSLY: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers

Note: Wisconsin has played two games thus far, overwhelming a cupcake at home and losing to a solid Creighton team on the road, 79-67. Surprisingly, they allowed 1.20 points per possession to the Blue Jays and went 11-39 from three themselves. Turnovers, typically uncharacteristic of Wisconsin teams, were also a problem. Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig led the Badgers in scoring in that game.

It’s hard to believe that Wisconsin opened up the 2015-16 season with a home loss to Western Illinois; they started out 7-5 (with only one of those losses to a tournament team) before Bo Ryan surprisingly retired midseason. Long-term assistant Greg Gard was given a trial run to secure the job permanently, and when the Badgers started conference play 1-4, it looked like the odds of that were slim. Three of those losses were to quality opponents but a loss to Northwestern was particularly tough. It looked like even an NIT bid would require a significant turnaround.

Fast-forward to this offseason and Wisconsin – which returns all five of its starters – is the consensus favorite to win the conference. They responded to that Northwestern loss with a home upset over Michigan State by a single point, and including that game, finished on an extended 11-2 streak to end the regular season – they beat every tournament team in the league except for Purdue. Even with a first round upset loss to Nebraska in the Big Ten Tournament, they made it safely into the NCAA Tournament.

[Rest of the preview after the JUMP]

In the first round, they had a classically ugly 47-43 win over Pittsburgh – a reminder of the Bo Ryan era. They faced two-seed Xavier in the second round and played one of their best games of the season, winning on a Bronson Koenig buzzer-beater from the corner. They lost a heartbreaker in the Sweet 16 against Notre Dame after star Irish PG Demetrius Jackson had two steals in the waning moments of the game – Wisconsin actually led by three with less than a minute left and eventually lost by five. Still, it was an impressive tournament showing for a team that had some really bad non-conference losses earlier in the year. Unsurprisingly, Gard was given the job permanently.

It’s hard to believe, but literally everyone is back from that Sweet 16 team. Nigel Hayes had an abysmal shooting profile last season but got to the free throw line enough to make up for it and should be one of the better players in the conference; Bronson Koenig was a strong outside shooting threat but was otherwise not as impactful as expected; freshman big man Ethan Happ was a revelation and had unbelievable block and steal rates; Vitto Brown and Zak Showalter were valuable role players.

Winning the conference title over a team like Indiana or Purdue – who ostensibly have more talented players at the top of their roster – will be difficult, but it looks like Gard will have Wisconsin right where Ryan did for most of his tenure: near the top.

LAST SEASON

The #9 bubble located at (14, ~118) shouldn’t be there.

It comes as somewhat of a surprise that Wisconsin wasn’t their typically efficient self on offense: on the season, they ranked 90th in Kenpom’s adjusted efficiency and the defense – which was 13th – carried the squad.

Nigel Hayes and Ethan Happ were the go-to guys on offense; Hayes often operated out of mid-post isos where he could create for others or get to the free throw line, but he shot just 40% on twos and 29% on threes; Happ posted up some but was more often the recipient of offense created by others – and he did show a decent passing ability (though that was accompanied by a high turnover rate, which is common for freshmen).

Bronson Koenig and Vitto Brown were the next options on offense and they were the players most responsible for any success the Badgers had from three-point range – Koenig made 39% and Brown made 40%. Often regarded as a point guard, Koenig wasn’t much of a distributor and was ineffective from inside the arc, which hampered his efficiency. Brown is a quintessential Wisconsin stretch big – his combination of shooting and offensive rebounding rate make him a nice asset.

Zak Showalter was the most efficient Badger and was on the floor mostly for his defensive prowess; his high two-point percentage (58%) is a result of selectiveness in his shot attempts. The role players – guard Jordan Hill and forwards Iverson, Illikainen and Thomas – weren’t much of a threat offensively.

Four Factor Z-Scores from games against Big Ten opponents

The biggest sign that Gard doesn’t strictly adhere to Bo Ryan’s philosophies: the Badgers actually forced more turnovers in Big Ten play than anyone else, which is a huge deviation from Ryan’s typical conservative pack-line defense that focused more on forcing tough shots than creating turnovers. Wisconsin was a strong defensive team, even though they had average shot defense, rebounding, and foul avoidance because they were so disruptive defensively. While Gard certainly does incorporate a lot of what Ryan did, this is one major difference and one that’s easy to note statistically.

Offensively, they still did a good job of avoiding turnovers – and the spacing provided by Brown and Koenig helped them to a respectable eFG% number – but another difference is that they made a more concerted effort to get to the free throw line. Led by Nigel Hayes, who shot over seven free throws per game (and made 74% of them), the Badgers were great at attacking the basket and getting high-value possessions in the form of shooting fouls.

NEWCOMERS

Wisconsin signed two freshmen in the 2016: point guard D’Mitrik Trice – brother of former Spartan guard Travis Trice – and wing Aleem Ford, both of whom are old for their class and finished their high school careers at IMG Academy in Florida. Trice is a capable outside shooter and true point guard who can distribute – and he’ll be a part of the rotation right away. Ford is a late-blooming inside-outside forward who will probably be stuck behind some more veteran players in the rotation for the time being. The Badgers are also adding 2015 guard Brevin Pritzl, a relatively highly-regarded prospect who was forced to miss his freshman season due to injury.

PROJECTED ROTATION

• STARTER (GUARD) – Bronson Koenig (Sr, 6’3, 190): Shot just 40% on twos, but 39% on threes and actually took more shots from behind the arc, thought of as a point guard but has a low assist rate, offensive rating dropped ten points from his sophomore to junior season.
• STARTER (GUARD) – Zak Showalter (R-Sr, 6’3, 185): Defensive specialist a credible three-point threat (35%), doesn’t take many shots, turns it over a bit, very efficient from inside the arc on limited attempts.
• STARTER (POINT FORWARD) – Nigel Hayes (Sr, 6’8, 240): Inefficient on shot attempts from the field but was one of the best players in the league at getting to the free throw line and converting, highest assist rate on team, focal point of Wisconsin’s offense.
• STARTER (STRETCH-FOUR) – Vitto Brown (Sr, 6’8, 235): Stretch four was the best shooter on the team after not taking many threes earlier in his career, strong defensively and on the glass, one of the better role players in the Big Ten.
• STARTER (POST) – Ethan Happ (R-So, 6’10, 232): Ridiculous block and steal rates (top 20 nationally in steals) suggest that he’s a defensive force down low, strong rebounder as well, good post threat, can get to the free throw line but only shot 64%.
• BENCH (POINT GUARD) – D’Mitrik Trice (Fr, 6’0, 178): True freshman spent an extra year in high school and he’s played in each of Wisconsin’s games thus far, hitting a few threes, but hasn’t had an assist yet for the Badgers.
• BENCH (COMBO GUARD) – Jordan Hill (R-Jr, 6’4, 172): Was Wisconsin’s third guard last season, not very efficient on low usage, didn’t have many assists but has more this season, good size and good defender.
• BENCH (WING) – Khalil Iverson (So, 6’5, 212): Despite playing mostly on the wing, only hit two three-pointers last season and did most of his work inside the arc, turned it over a ton, poor free throw shooter.
• BENCH (WING) – Alex Illikainen (So, 6’9, 232): Took six threes against Creighton the other day, so probably a reasonable stretch forward to back up Brown, was the most effective bench big last season.
• BENCH (POST) – Charlie Thomas (So, 6’8, 252): Takes some threes so he must have the green light there, but a very poor shooter from all over the floor, hit less than 50% of his free throws, good rebounder.

PLAYER COMPARISON

A few years ago, I came up with a system that would compare the statistical profiles of Big Ten players to their historical counterparts by taking the sum of the differences between a given player’s profile and each of the thousand player-seasons from 2008-present in twenty different statistical categories.

# value is the Z-Score of the player’s statistic (or statistics averaged over multiple seasons) relative to the entire sample

Nigel Hayes is an interesting player. As a sophomore, he took 19.3% of available shots while on the floor and had excellent shooting splits – 54 / 40 / 74 (2P% / 3P% / FT%), while posting one of the best efficiency numbers in the conference. As a junior, those splits were markedly worse as he took 25.4% of available shots – 40 / 29 / 74 (it’s worth noting that his playing time also rose). He was still considered one of the best players in the league, but it was almost entirely due to his ability to get to the free throw line and his surprisingly solid passing ability.

Malcolm Hill and Shavon Shields are excellent comparisons for him, both stylistically and statistically. As high-volume iso scoring forwards who work best from the mid-range and are most effective while drawing fouls, those three definitely fit a certain profile of player. The dichotomy between the national hype Hayes receives – some consider him the best player in the league, which is laughable – and the lack of buzz around Hill, even within the conference, is stark.

If Hayes can rehabilitate those shooting numbers though, he could have a better senior year. It’s hard to say that his junior campaign was a huge step back because he went from being a role player on a team loaded with talent to the number one offensive option on a team with offensive challenges, but it would be huge for Wisconsin if he can be the same type of playmaker while shooting better from the field.

OUTLOOK

Even with the loss to Creighton and Indiana and Purdue looking really good, Wisconsin still could be considered the front-runner to win the Big Ten. While the bench is still unproven, the starting five of Koenig – Showalter – Hayes – Brown – Happ is a great combination, especially on the defensive end. It’s definitely unusual that their top two assist rates were from the SF and C positions last season, but they made it work to a certain extent.

Bronson Koenig hasn’t exactly thrived in a more featured role and between Showalter, Hill, and Trice, the backcourt might be a weak link for the Badgers. Guard play is obviously quite important at the college level and lacking a dynamic playmaker in the backcourt puts much more pressure on Hayes and, to a lesser extent, Happ. Koenig has already taken 23 three-point attempts over two games and has only made 30% of them; he’s only had a single assist. That might be a problem moving forward.

If Wisconsin hadn’t upset Xavier in the NCAA Tournament last season, they might not be the favorite to win the league, and because such a close game swung perception so much, it’s easy to wonder if they’re being overrated a little bit because of how they finished last year. Getting all of their players back was very important, of course, but they weren’t close to either Michigan State or Indiana last season in Big Ten play. They also struggled in non-conference play last season, so perhaps we can dismiss this loss to Creighton – which did come in a tough road environment.

At the very least, the frontcourt should be strong. As Hayes becomes more comfortable in a featured role, he could become more efficient. Happ could blossom into a star and he already could be the single most impactful defender in the Big Ten. The Badgers will make most teams work especially hard to score and keep games close that way, even if they don’t have the crisp, effective, and lethal swing offense that Bo Ryan had for years. They’ll be in the top tier of the Big Ten and wins against them will be very difficult, but their ceiling does seem limited, which could open things up for Indiana or Purdue to win the league.