Can't wait for the season to start.
things go poorly
Previously: S Vlad Emilien, S Thomas Gordon, CB Justin Turner, CB Adrian Witty, LB Isaiah Bell, LB Mike Jones, LB Brandin Hawthorne, DT Will Campbell, DE Anthony LaLota, DE Craig Roh, OL Michael Schofield, OL Taylor Lewan, OL Quinton Washington, WR Cameron Gordon, WR Je'Ron Stokes, WR Jeremy Gallon, RB Teric Jones, RB Vincent Smith, RB Fitzgerald Toussaint, QB Denard Robinson, and K Brendan Gibbons.
|San Diego, California - 6'0" 184
|Scout||4*, #15 QB, #137 overall|
|Rivals||4*, #4 DTQB, #164 overall|
|ESPN||81, #14 QB, #144 overall|
|Others||#56 to Lemming, #133 to TAKKLE|
|Other Suitors||Penn State, Oregon, Florida, Nebraska|
|Quarterback Conundra. A diarist takes in Tate's final high school game. TomVH interviews Tate. Gun show. Mailbag 1. Mailbag 2. Tea leaves. Spring recap.|
|Notes||Early enrollee. Younger brother of former M QB Jason Forcier. Personal site.|
Tate Forcier is the one who didn't get away, the one who was planning on committing even when Kevin Newsome and Shavodrick Beaver hadn't twirled their mustaches in dastardly fashion and tied Michigan football's hopes to the train tracks before effecting their getaways. His brother is my favorite Michigan player of all time who never played. He is a relentlessly trained quarterback prodigy ready to step in on day one—which was a month ago—and challenge Steven Threet for the starting job. God help us if he flames out.
Here's the world's most succinct scouting report($), via a story title from the Nebraska Rivals site:
Forcier Equals Accuracy
Indeed. Forcier's high school numbers were mindboggling, Colt McCoy-style things. His junior year he completed 77%(!!!) of his passes; at times you could have taken a shot every time a Forcier pass hit the ground and driven home in confidence. His completion percentage dipped this year, but there were reasons and compensations:
|So||157 / 221||1637||71.0%||7.4||10.4||17-4|
|Jr||164 / 213||2387||77.0%||11.2||14.6||21-5|
|Sr||208 / 326||3424||63.8%||10.5||16.5||23-15|
Forcier was given a much greater burden in his final year. That naturally drives down your numbers as the playcalling slants towards passing and defenses are being called with that in mind. Despite that, you can see Tate's YPC rise every year as the dinking and dunking receded.
The one glaring issue is Forcier's senior spike in interceptions. That's partially the increased attempts and partially what sounds like a sieve-like offensive line. In Forcier's final high school game he was sacked seven times in a 41-14 loss against Oceanside. An MGoBlog diarist took it in:
Tate throws a great ball. Unfortunately, his offensive line was horrible and never gave him any time to sit in the pocket and throw a deep ball. It would have been nice to see him attempt some down field stuff, but it was not to be. All of his passes looked sharp and accurate though. He also has a really quick release.
Forcier was often reduced to scrambling around and chucking it hopefully, which obviously led to the interceptions. Here's another piece of the Drew Tate comparison I've been beating into the ground for months now: Tate (Iowa Version) also saw a senior-year spike in interceptions as Iowa's offensive line regressed (they gave up an extra half-sack per game when Tate was a senior) and Tate took matters into his own hands more often. This tendency can be either wildly good or wildly bad, and threatens to do so on consecutive plays this fall. Only experience will teach Forcier what he can and cannot do at this level.
When not fleeing from virtually unblocked defenders, Forcier is creepily accurate. That was his calling card as early as November of 2007. Rivals introduces Tate:
Forcier, 6-1, 185 pounds can flat out spin the rock. We first saw him at the NorCal NIKE Camp two years ago following his freshman season and he was already throwing the ball better than just about anyone at the event. Mechanically, Forcier is nearly flawless and has everything you're looking for in a signal caller.
The quarterback takes a great drop, has a quick release and the ball comes out of his hand so effortlessly. There is no wasted motion in Forcier's delivery and he has an absolute cannon for an arm. He's very accurate and can throw on the run or outside of the pocket equally well.
At the Elite 11 camp, Forcier won the accuracy competition. Soon after Rivals named him the most accurate quarterback in his class. When Friend of Blog Craig Ross caught him at spring practice that's what leapt out:
Forcier’s arm is stronger than I thought it would be. Most of the balls he threw looked pretty crisp. He looked terrific in the drills. Running right or left he puts the ball on the money. I didn’t see him throw a poor ball.
Yes: Forcier equals accuracy. That's his one-word description. Weis equals corpulence. Tressel equals boring. Forcier equals accuracy.
Accuracy arises from good mechanics, which have been drilled into his head since he was tiny. Michigan quarterbacks coach Rod Smith:
"I think he's got some of the best mechanics I've seen from a high school kid in a while," Smith said. "He's humble, and he's just willing to work. The kid's been playing football and winning games ever since he's been little."
You don't have mechanics like that, or two older brothers who got scholarships to Michigan and UCLA, without structural reasons pushing you towards that. Primary reason: Forcier's dad. A secondary one: Forcier's Tebow-esque homeschool setup:
On Fridays in the fall, Tate Forcier doesn't feel like going to school. The night's game is on his mind, and the quarterback for Scripps Ranch High in San Diego can't imagine studying a textbook rather than studying a defense.
No big deal.
"I'll tell my teacher, 'I have a game today,'" Forcier said. "He'll say, 'That's fine; you don't have to come.' And I'll go to my football school and watch film all day."
Aaaand the 17-and-under readership of this blog just passed out in joyous contemplation of such a thing. The flexibility in Forcier's schedule allowed him to pack in hundreds of extra workouts with Marv Marinovich, the father of one-time quarterback wunderkind Todd. Marinovich's assessment of his charge is strangely poetic:
"Tate springs off his feet. He bounds from side-to-side to avoid the rush and then accelerates. His peripheral vision is key allowing him stay focused and scan downfield. But really, his mental attitude toward the position along with quick feet and hand-eye coordination blended together is ridiculous."
A haiku version of this:
Tate springs off his feet
He bounds from side to side, and
So here's word two in our ever-expanding world's briefest Forcier scouting report: scrambly. ESPN's evaluation highlights it frequently:
Forcier lacks ideal height, but he makes a ton of plays with both his arm and feet. He has excellent speed for the position, but he's really a passer who happens to be athletic enough to run a spread or read-option attack with ease. … Has good mobility within the pocket, and pulls the occasional rabbit out of his hat when a play breaks down. Can sidestep the rush and has a very quick release. He isn't afraid to take off on the run. Can create second chances with his feet and pick up a first down. Often breaks containment, and can throw on the run to either side with very good accuracy. He's a timing passer who likes to get the ball out of his hand quickly. … Has ideal skills for his team's offense--excellent pre-snap reads, a quick release and great accuracy. … Shows a tough side and scrappiness when working to make things happen.
Forcier himself reinforces that scouting report:
"That's why coach Rodriguez recruited me," Forcier said after Saturday's scrimmage. "A lot of times, when the play breaks down, that's your job. Make a play."
Indeed, this youtube video is full of "oh my god what are you doing, stop doing that, arrrgh… touchdown?!" moments:
cough cough drew tate cough tate, drew cough.
Forcier's tutelage and longtime starting experience had him net an impressive set of BCS offers before he even showed up at the Army All-American combine as a junior:
The talented Californian barely showed up in time for registration, but had big news with Auburn, Penn State and Oregon sending offers within the last week to join the existing group of Wisconsin, Iowa, Stanford and Arizona.
Ironically, that article contrasts Forcier and Kevin Newsome, pigeonholing the former as a pro-style quarterback and the latter as a dual threat sort.
By the Signing Day a year before Forcier would actually put his name on a piece of paper, he had added to that list with offers from LSU, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, and Virginia. Florida would also throw its hat in the ring by June at the latest; Tate's personal site also shows offers—like, you know, the actual letters—from Tennessee, Arizona State, Virginia Tech, Nebraska, and many more. This is a lot of offers from impressive sources.
At that combine Forcier had some issues attributed, oddly, to the balls in use:
"I thought I threw the ball decent, I felt like I could have done better. I was getting used to the receivers and they did a pretty good job catching my ball. Overall I thought it went pretty well," Forcier said. "All quarterbacks like to have a certain kind of ball, some like the soft ones, some like the hard ones, and these were pretty hard. So you know we tried to adjust to them the best that we can.
"I have an advantage over some guys though, I've got big hands." [HEYO! –ed]
He did "nothing to hurt his standing" as a top 75 prospect… except apparently he did. So there you go. He dropped out of the top 100, but not far, and committed to Michigan about ten seconds after Kevin Newsome re-opened his recruitment, after attending the Utah game. And who could blame him after that?
Then, of course, came spring:
I just watched that thing again and it's pure sport porn; I sort of wish Ace had left in Forcier's three incompletions—one bad read, one Stonum drop, and one overthrown screen—so it wasn't a just a possibly-misleading highlight reel but was instead the whole spring performance. My favorite part is that little swing pass to Moundros on the rollout: Forcier's getting pressure from a defender, calmly positions himself, and puts a perfectly-led ball right in Moundros' arms, allowing him to turn upfield against the chasing linebacker. That is the sort of precision Michigan's offense was lacking last year.
In the aftermath this here blog was about as "eeee" over Forcier as it is over Mike Barwis:
Most encouraging development: The general existence of Tate Forcier. Forcier chucked one pass into a linebacker's pads but other than that was worlds better than anything Michigan's seen at quarterback since Lloyd Carr rode out of the Citrus Bowl on the shoulders of his team. Forcier was as advertised: quick and scrambly in the pocket, accurate on the run, worryingly small, &c.
…There was one overthrown screen and the shoulda-been interception, but other than that he was dead on. Unofficial stats had him 11/14 for 130 or so yards. That's worlds different from last year's spring game, in which both quarterbacks threw multiple interceptions to legends like Artis Chambers and everyone started panicking in earnest about what fall would bring. Forcier's first excursion as Michigan's quarterback could not have been more reassuring.
So, here we are.
Why Drew Tate? That's my go-to comparison and I'm sticking to it. Forcier is about 6', maybe 6'1". He's nimble and though he took off frequently in high school, in college he won't have as much of an athletic advantage and will mostly use his feet to buy time to throw downfield. He has the proverbial moxie, which occasionally gets him into trouble. The Tate comparison is eerily accurate, except maybe Forcier is better school and will be more accurate than the occasionally-erratic Tate.
Look, you can even listen to ESPN, which grabbed the most Tate-like NFL quarterback in recent memory when searching for a comparison:
Has a style similar to that of Jeff Garcia, another riverboat gambler who finds ways to get the job done.
I'm telling you. I tell you. This I have told you.
Guru Reliability: High. Forcier's been on the radar screen a long time with his father and his brothers and whatnot. Also, the final guru ratings above are spectacularly similar, with Lemming's strong endorsement the only one that finds him outside a narrow band centered around #150.
General Excitement Level: High, minus a pip or two. He's not Devin Gardner in terms of upside but those skills in this offense should provide an immediate boost, and I'd be surprised if he wasn't a four-year starter.
Projection: Here's me on a limb: I think Forcier will be the starting quarterback this year. Wow, this limb… it's very wobbly no it's not it's the ground.
Can't wait for the season to start.
"...even when Kevin Newsome and Shavodrick Beaver hadn't twirled their mustaches in dastardly fashion and tied Michigan football's hopes to the train tracks before effecting their getaways."
Never heard of him. You'd think someone would have mentioned the guy before now. Weird.
At the very least, I think we have the coolest offer- like, you know, the actual letter- of them all:
Sounded like something you would write in someone's yearbook. "Stay Sweet" "Don't Change" Love RR
Also, Old Man Ferentz and Co. win the award for lamest offer letter:
Wow... I didn't realize they could be so lame.
Who the heck is "at" that placed a bunch of X's where Ferentz was to sign?
The only thing I will add as I was sitting with Brian at the sping game was that we still need to see the guy handle the blitz and not the "Hey, we're on the same team" two hand touch blit either. I think Tate is going to see the blitz early and often and how he responds to it will be crucial. IMO, if the kid goes out there and sees the blitzes and can make the right reads (post snap) or can use his wiggle to make plays early on, then he'll gain confidence, if that is even possible.
I am more curious about Denard as I feel like if he can come on during the summer camps and the first few games, then he'll be a solid contributor. We need 2-3 that RR feels he can win with, or atleast that is what RR says everytime someone asks him about QBs.
...getting the ball out to the slot, to a checkdown RB, or to Koger is going to be key. I especially think the slots and Koger are going to get a lot of work if teams like ND blitz Tate a lot. Once they back off, then the run and the deeper routes should be able to develop.
I think having Tate back there will give the offense time for plays to develop, which plainly never happened last year.
I would actually want Denard playing a lot to start the year. I think Denard's speed will really be a huge asset compared to tate, Tate is slippery and he throws accurately, but if denard makes the right read - he's gone. Should be fun to watch.
I completely disagree. It has been proven time and again that your QB must be a QB first and an RB second. Not the reverse.
Yep, I will take accuracy over speed any day.
Considering that we don't run the full triple-option, I agree. Go tell that to Paul Johnson, though.
Eh it's not like he can't throw - you make him sound like Feagin at Minnesota. Bubble screens and passes out of the backfield will be Robinson's friend at first. I want to see if he can be a good passer - maybe I didn't get that across.
(said like the guys in the Guiness commercial)
I've only seen a couple Kansas games, but that's the image I have in my head for Tate: shortish, scrambly, and somehow always making plays.
Argh, why isn't it football season yet? I can't wait to talk about, you know, GAMES.
propose Reesing also.
I like this comparison also....nothing against Brian's Drew Tate parallel, mind you, but after watching Forcier live at the spring game, my mind flashed to Reesing.....I didnt think of Drew Tate because I was thinking about QBs playing today.
Reesling just gets it done. Hopefully we can say the same about Tate.
The spring game performance makes me way too optimistic about the season...
...but the defense balanced that out for me. I mean, they had some key injuries, but I didn't think the 1st team D played especially well against the 2nd team offense.
....the fact that a starting LB, the best CB, the 3rd best CB (JT Turner), and midway through, a starting DT (RVB) weren't playing. Those are only 4 of the better players on the team. Graham was also taken out pretty quickly.
The defense is thin, but will be alright.
Yeah, that is what I was talking about.
Given those key losses, I was still hoping our depth would play better against the duo of Cone and Kennedy.
Hey big guy. You are obviously at work today. Or really bored. Either way, I'm proud of you. Keep the summer dream alive.
Oh, and Dantonio wants his seat back.
Seconded. I choose to turn a blind eye to the fact that our defense may have been semi-responsible
Tate Forcier: Accurate Passerman™
>Weis equals corpulence. Tressel equals boring. Forcier equals accuracy.<
Wait a minute. I thought it was 5'10". Did he grow, is this standard recruiting height inflation, or was he always 6' tall?
6 feet, if not 6'1
You can tell Michigan sent him an offer BEFORE the 2008 season got too far under way. Note the "32 Consecutive Bowl Appearances" at the bottom. =P It's ok though, we can start a new streak with Tate hopefully.
Another clue: the "February 22, 2008" date at the top.
joint detective work. You make a great team.
Not to be a contrarian, but did he in the entire spring game throw to someone who wasn't his first option?
but the whole point is to get the ball in space quickly
Can't we just be happy for a little bit that he was at least accurately passing the ball to any option?
we have a QB that can consistently hit a receiver in the numbers from 10 yards away. The rest is icing on the cake.
Why would you if you don't have to?
Believe me I'm as excited about him as anybody, but before we start calling him Moses Forcier, it's probably wise to check the enthusiasm a little bit.
I admit though that this is all based on me just watching some highlights. Any of the following could be true:
- He did make some reads and check down
- He did not need to come off the first option cause it was always open
Actually, watching that spring game highlight reel, I saw him check down receivers (or look off the defenders, at least) a couple times.
Here's where I saw it:
2:34 (looking left, looking left . . . zips it down the middle, long gain).
3:46 (looking to the right, nothin' there--long ball over the middle, TD).
And as it's been said, if your first guy is open, why check down?
having an accurate quarterback will make all the difference. bubble screens will finally work!!
Ok, I'm jazzed. We're gonna beat the Irish, stinking Spartans, PeeSU, and the Buckeyes.
Sorry - not about Forcier, who I hope rocks...
Ah, this sentence brought back memories...
"The flexibility in Forcier's schedule allowed him to pack in hundreds of extra workouts with Marv Marinovich, the father of one-time quarterback wunderkind Todd."
If memory serves, that whole Todd Marinovich wunderkind thing didn't work out too well...people still hire Marv Marinovich to work out their kids?
So I'm not sure what the problem is.
Let's not pile on too many expectation for this year. I know we're all thirsty for some respect after last year but it's still a work in progess.
It's all about imeasureables.
is going to last forever. Can't wait to wash the taste of last year out of my mouth forever.
Having seen a lot of Doug Flutie in the CFL...Tate just has that feel about him and like they said about Flutie...if he was just a few inches taller...he could have been an NFL hall of famer...
If Forcier can replicate his spring performance in game conditions we are going to tear up the Big Ten this year.
I think Forcier is a great pickup for Michigan. There needs to be some kind of forward motion, or the identification of some of the missing puzzle pieces that Coach Rodriguez and Michigan fans need. And this recruit landing in Ann Arbor is one of those pieces.
The downside is that he scrambles and then gets a zinger or dinger laid on. Height is really not an issue simply because he played taller in the spring game. Scrambling was not an issue either because he was elusive in the spring game. The fear is the spaces in between where the play breaks down, causing the scramble, and some random 200 plus LB'er or lineman simply falling/tackling the young man. Because there will be breakdowns, 3rd and longs and other obvious passing plays where he will scramble, be elusive and be one on one with some bigger people in the open field. His loss would significantly hurt the passing rhythm of the Michigan offensive attack. Not that Jack Kennedy and Denard Robinson cannot throw.
Great recruit, hard worker, so heres to sliding into tackles and staying healthy fella!