loved this post and the cartoon at the top explains it perfectly.
coaches say you can't, so don't sign a loi
xkcd / Hoke pointing at xkcd / EDIT: which means you should click on it dammit so you will get the point!
This morning His Dudeness posted a throwaway discussion topic for the board comparing Rodriguez's 2009 recruiting to Hoke's 2012. This was taken by some as an attempt to reopen 2008-'10 wounds but really it's another "how many ways can we talk about how awesome our 2012 recruiting is going?" (So so awesome). Anyway this started as a
reply to fisk of that thread and ended up at 2,000 words plus charts. Hi, I'm Misopogon, have we met?
It's been almost 200 days since Hoke took the job. That's not much to go on when trying to judge a coach. Basically there's 1) his previous resume, 2) the process of how he was hired, 3) how he built his staff, 4) how he integrates into the program, and then 5) a few months of recruiting. I literally wrote up the first four then figured what the hell would we want to go over that again, so let's skip right to recruiting.
Rodriguez additions to Class of '08:
|Name||Pos||State||Stars||RR||Pos Rk||Nat Rk||State Rk||Rec'd By|
|Michael Shaw||RB||OH||4 stars||5.9||7||NR||6|
|Taylor Hill||LB||OH||4 stars||5.8||21||NR||16|
|Terrence Robinson||RB||TX||4 stars||5.8||9||NR||34|
|Ricky Barnum||OL||FL||4 stars||5.8||5||NR||37|
|Roy Roundtree||WR||OH||4 stars||5.8||44||NR||17||Bruce Tall|
|Justin Feagin||ATH||FL||3 stars||5.7||41||NR||71|
|Martavious Odoms||WR||FL||3 stars||5.7||71||NR||77||Rod Smith|
|Patrick Omameh||DE||OH||2 stars||5.1||NR||NR||NR||Bruce Tall|
Hoke additions to Class of '11:
|Name||Pos||State||Stars||RR||Pos Rk||Nat Rk||State Rk||Rec'd By|
|Chris Barnett||TE||TX||4 stars||5.8||14||NR||32||Jeff Hecklinski|
|Raymon Taylor||ATH||MI||4 stars||5.8||14||NR||6|
|Antonio Poole||LB||OH||3 stars||5.7||26||NR||20||Mark Smith|
|Frank Clark||LB||OH||3 stars||5.6||NR||NR||52|
|Thomas Rawls||RB||MI||3 stars||5.6||NR||NR||19||Fred Jackson|
|Russell Bellomy||QB||TX||3 stars||5.5||NR||NR||NR|
|Tamani Carter||DB||OH||3 stars||5.5||NR||NR||60||Mark Smith|
|Keith Heitzman||DE||OH||3 stars||5.5||NR||NR||NR||Greg Mattison, Mark Smith|
|Matt Wile||K||CA||2 stars||5.3||NR||NR||NR|
This is unfair to judge the coaches against each other. Rodriguez was hired in November and was taking over a Citrus-bound program with a retiring Hall of Fame coach, while Hoke was hired in the middle of January after a blowout Gator loss and following a fired guy. Rodriguez had less time than would have been optimal given the breadth of his transition, but it was no more of a transition than Hoke faces, and RR got a good two months, including the all-important December period, to bring the current class home.
The recruiting is reflected in that. Other than bringing Hill from W.Va., Rodriguez mostly grabbed guys to fit his offensive system. Shaw's a speed-back, T-Rob, Roundtree and Odoms were slot receivers, Barnum and Omameh were the kind of agile offensive linemen who fit best in zone blocking, and Feagin was a last-minute consolation prize when Pryor decided he'd get more out of attending Ohio State. Hoke on the other hand found a handful of Michigan and Ohio State Sad Joshes (Clark, Carter, Heitzman, Rawls, Poole, Bellomy and Taylor), at positions of great need, replaced the kicker lost in the transition, yanked the requisite Purdue recruit (Bellomy) to ensure Danny Hope stays petty, and pulled in a last-minute coup on a national tight end.
Both did okay, not fantastic. Hoke got a kicker back, which was a big deal, but needed to flip someone's 5.9+ OT and pick up another good-to-great linebacker to avoid scary depths at that positions starting in 2012; RR's failure to get more help at defensive back (Carr had Brandon Smith, J.T. Floyd, and Cissoko) would haunt him the rest of his Michigan career (nobody planned on losing 2/4 LBs by next summer). Oh, and, ahem, quarterback.
Rodriguez 2009 recruits as of July 26, 2008:
|William Campbell||DT||MI||5 stars||6.1||Oct. 2007||5||26||1||(Carr's staff)|
|Justin Turner||DB||OH||4 stars||6.0||Mar 28||3||35||1||Bruce Tall|
|Bryce McNeal||WR||MN||4 stars||6.0||May 1||10||75||1||Tony Dews|
|Kevin Newsome||QB||VA||4 stars||5.9||Apr 24||4||163||9||Fred Jackson|
|Jeremy Gallon||ATH||FL||4 stars||5.9||Jun 05||11||NR||31||Rod Smith|
|DeQuinta Jones||DT||LA||4 stars||5.8||Jul 21||NR||NR||10||Jay Hopson|
|Shavodrick Beaver||QB||TX||4 stars||5.8||Apr 29||8||206||24||Rod Smith|
|Fitz Toussaint||RB||OH||4 stars||5.8||Apr 18||8||NR||14||Tony Gibson|
|Michael Schofield||OL||IL||4 stars||5.8||Jun 16||18||NR||6||Scott Shafer|
|Teric Jones||RB||MI||3 stars||5.7||Mar 29||37||NR||12||Tony Dews|
|Isaiah Bell||LB||OH||3 stars||5.7||Mar 31||26||NR||27||Tony Gibson|
Hoke 2012 recruits as of July 26, 2011:
|Kyle Kalis||OL||OH||4 stars||6.0||Jul 10||4||18||1||Greg Mattison|
|Royce Jenkins-Stone||LB||MI||4 stars||5.9||Apr 16||7||87||1||Fred Jackson|
|Erik Magnuson||OL||CA||4 stars||5.9||Jun 10||8||34||6||Dan Ferrigno|
|Blake Bars||OL||TN||4 stars||5.8||Jun 26||34||NR||6||Mark Smith|
|Joe Bolden||LB||OH||4 stars||5.8||Apr 29||16||NR||11||Greg Mattison|
|Pharaoh Brown||DE||OH||4 stars||5.8||May 07||20||NR||17||Greg Mattison|
|Terry Richardson||DB||MI||4 stars||5.8||May 19||18||NR||4||Greg Mattison|
|James Ross||LB||MI||4 stars||5.8||May 2||4||NR||3||Fred Jackson|
|Tom Strobel||DE||OH||4 stars||5.8||Jun 10||18||NR||14||Greg Mattison|
|Jarrod Wilson||DB||OH||4 stars||5.8||Jul 8||NR||NR||NR||Greg Mattison|
|Ben Braden||OL||MI||3 stars||5.7||Mar 24||59||NR||9||Greg Mattison|
|Devin Funchess||TE||MI||3 stars||5.7||Apr 22||17||NR||6||Fred Jackson|
|Allen Gant||DB||OH||3 stars||5.7||May 31||22||NR||29||Al Borges|
|Matthew Godin||DT||MI||3 stars||5.7||May 12||27||NR||7||Fred Jackson|
|Kaleb Ringer||LB||OH||3 stars||5.7||Apr 12||11||NR||25||Mark Smith|
|Caleb Stacey||OL||OH||3 stars||5.7||Mar 26||12||NR||22||Mark Smith|
|Anthony Standifer||DB||IL||3 stars||5.7||Jun 01||37||NR||14||Jeff Hecklinski|
|A.J. Williams||TE||OH||3 stars||5.7||Apr 22||16||NR||28||Mark Smith|
|Mario Ojemudia||DE||MI||3 stars||5.6||May 7||NR||NR||14||Fred Jackson|
|Jeremy Clark#||DB||KY||3 stars||5.5||Jun 24||NR||NR||6||(Camp offer)|
|Sione Houma||RB||UT||0 stars||NR||Jul 25||NR||NR||NR||Dan Ferrigno|
# = entering as grayshirt
By the way those are end-of-cycle rankings so it's not an exact match, e.g. Newsome was at one point rated the 20th player in the country by Rivals and was around 40-something by mid-summer. For our purposes it gets the point across: RR had some great gifts for the tree had they hung on, but still needed a lot of stocking stuffers.
Both coaches worked quickly to over-address positions of the greatest whiffs in years previous. Rodriguez got two of the top QBs in the country signed on, and had 5-stars or near enough at cornerback and DT. To the groans of smurf-haters everywhere, RR also had secured two more scat-backs and another (highly rated) slot receiver. Schofield was considered a good system OT; Isaiah Bell was a S/LB sleeper adored by one Ohio site but not the national scouts. Hoke meanwhile has killed, already having secured five OL commitments, three of whom are already past the "just a 4-star" threshold, and also swept the region in LB recruits, faring almost as well in DEs. Hoke's clearly got the advantage.
You'll note a lot of the 2008 haul never made it to campus. The 3-9 year was partly to blame of course, however as of late July 2008 many of RR's guys were soft. Will Campbell (right) committed to Carr in the middle of his junior (2007) year and remained a softie; he eventually de-committed in September only to re-up after a long and pulmonarily destructive flirtation with SEC schools. Bryce committed but looking around; he lost interest in October, presumably after many sleepless nights spent thinking of Nick Sheridan passing to him. Newsome was entertaining a camp visit at Virginia Tech this time three years ago, but turned it down and sounded like he was rock. He and Beaver gave up around the same time (right after you mentally gave up on the 2008 offense) and were immediately replaced by Tate and the hard pursuit of some supersonic kid in Florida who Urban wanted badly and nobody thought was a QB.
And then there's DeQuinta Jones, a 4-star DT from Louisiana who just kind of randomly pretended to commit to M without visiting, kind of the way that my buddy once announced that he was in love with the hottest girl in camp, whom we will call L.H.*, so that other girls in camp would take him more seriously. If this seems at all weird to you welcome to the wild and wacky world of Louisiana recruiting; bring a funny hat. The DeQuinta/LH gambit worked surprisingly well in both cases, except not for the faux commit-ee.
If you take away the guys who de-committed from RR's 2009 class it looks more like this…
…and it's Hoke like whoa. A bad year in 2011 and maybe his class starts falling apart as well, but it is important to note that nobody on that list above is considered soft except the grayshirted Jeremy Clark** if he gets something better than high-ish MAC offers, whereas that label applied to half of RR's first full class by July.
Stick their late additions to the hybrid class with their first-year recruiting by July and you get:
Not hugely dissimilar except that Hoke's got a lot more 3-stars and is missing four blue chips. In a worst case scenario the 2011 team starts losing a la 2008, while Ohio State's dancing along having gotten off virtually scot-free from the most obvious case of Failure to Monitor and Lack of Institutional Control I've ever witnessed in 20 years of college football fandom, and Hoke's Goodwill Ride of 2011 comes to a crashing, sudden stop, and then entire position groups are destroyed, and the 2012 guys start decomitting and the university hires Freakbass to rebrand us. If all those things don't happen, well, this probably turns out better than the last time.
Brian penned a State of Recruiting article in early August '08 that's worth a look-back so you can remember your comparable state of mind. How does that compare to now? And I didn't even make you compare "Denard: The Upperclassman Years" to "gee I hope this Sheridan guy really is a Basanez."
P.S. Don't miss the next exciting episode of 'Alphas' on Sci-Fi!
* Fellow period Tamakwans will agree that this wasn't debatable. Maaaybe a few votes for E.C. or
L.C. (EDIT: L.B.!!! HT Schram, Schram, Schneider, & Luria)
** He'll get a YMRMFSPA Charles Stewart if he makes it, but the Phillip Brackins comparison is so go, unless we decide you can all remember Eric Rosel.
loved this post and the cartoon at the top explains it perfectly.
That's a working hypothesis I used for years, but like a company that always seems to be making its margins, it takes a lot of consistently good work to have sustained success. The brand doesn't sell itself -- it's just that the worst coach we've had in 40 years was still able to keep recruiting success at an extraordinarily high level (he just screwed up a), b), c), and of course totally mutilated the "D."
It's basically Brian and "the other Brian" paragraphing it out over this stuff. I miss the other Brian, the real brian has been chased away by the parsing of every single adjective he uses.
Personally attacks on users, arguing over "trolling", various levels of butthurt over the RR firing and/or Hoke hiring. This comment section is like a microcosm of what is wrong with this blog.
One comment to make on the article. I realize this is almost impossible to do, but we need to find a way to adjust for the fact we have a bumper crop of talent in your backyard this year. Not to take anything away from Hoke, but he was further blessed with an abnormally high number of 4* recruits within one day's drive from campus. That definitely helps. Whereas in 2008 we were rummaging around in areas we did not traditionally recruit from.
This is a good question. But is it really the case that there is an abnormally high number of 4 star recruits in our area, or is it just that we have more successfully recruited Michigan and Ohio this time around?
Rivals' 2009 class had 11 Michigan players at 4 stars or above; the 2012 class has only 5. But in 2009 we only signed 2 of those 11, while this year we've already got 3 of the 5 committed and are optimistic on the other 2.
In Ohio the number of highly rated players is about equal (16 in 2009 vs. 18 for 2012), but again in 2009 we got 2 of the 16 while for the 2012 class we have 5 of the 18 commited.
(Of course, these are preseason vs. postseason rankings, not sure how much Rivals' list of 2012 4 stars has yet to expand.)
If I remember correctly about 2009, that was a random year in which a bunch of kids seemed higher ranked than you'd think for Michigan, and RR had a bad run trying to snag kids after a 3-9 season. Also, there just a bunch of kids in the state who gravitated to MSU in a way that nobody could have expected. That said, it was a bumper crop of sorts for the state and MSU cleaned up; hopefully this year will be the same for Hoke.
One thing about the Rivals rankings is that they have no midwest recruiting analyst, which is interesting when you consider that most of our current recruits are from the midwest.
Based on the xkcd link Misopgon did call my original post stupid. That has to count for something amirite?
I love summer glau. When Firefly was not renewed, we were crushed. Wait what was this thread about.
Isn't pretty much everything she on, sadly, cancelled?
Ha, wife and I. Fortunate to have a girl that shares all my interests. Even M football. (but sadly does draw the line at the other 12 games I try to watch every Saturday).
Yeah it occurred to us too - all her shows get cancelled but they are all good - ratings be damned.
You chose well.
(And auto-correct wants it to be "Summer Glaucoma", which doesn't sound like nearly as much fun),
I honestly don't care about the genesis of this post - it was thoughtful and illuminating. I know people like to overreact about people not named Brian posting material, but if the biggest troll in the world posts something that makes you think a little, then so be it. Blind squirrel, meet nut.
True. Worthwhile talking points are worthwhile regardless of who thinks of them. Dudeness doesn't win awards for his argumentative skills or his annoyance, but if presented in a different manner, people would have no problem with this concept.
I agree about the presentation. At the same time, there are quite a few posters here who come across as various levels of ass-ness (me included) at times, and I generally tune that part of the discussion out.
What drives me crazy are the people who come on this site to complain about the "state" of the site, how it has gotten worse/more divisive, how some people need to stop getting all "butt hurt" over RR, how others needs to stop slobbering over Hoke, etc. It's a freaking website dedicated to UM sports - you don't need to be here if you don't like it. And if you want a site with a different style that is more conducive to your mood, check out the sidebar over <------ for another option.
I don't always agree with what is written here, but MGoBlog is one of the best sports sites on the web, hands-down. I don't come for the board threads and the ssad cats (okay, maybe the cats); I come for the content from guys like Brian, Tim, and Misopogon.
"What drives me crazy are the people who come on this site to complain about the "state" of the site, how it has gotten worse/more divisive, how some people need to stop getting all "butt hurt" over RR, how others needs to stop slobbering over Hoke, etc."
Exhibit A for this was posted 35 minutes before your contribution. It's nearby.
You know it's bad when this is a front page post on Mgoblog.
Lets try to put things in perspective for everyone about this recruiting class.
First off, it's a good class. Regardless of what RR did in any of his years, it's a good class. Considering our needs, and the system Hoke runs, it's a good class.
Also, many of the players we have commited are in line to get another star, which will make this class look even better on paper.
There are also many more top line recruits who we still have legitimate chances with. If Hoke can get even a few of these recruits to come, the class is even better.
Even if you do want to compare Rich Rod and Hoke, as many people have said before, how many of RR's recruits actually made it to signing day, let alone the field?
And although people are going to compare RR and Hoke, I personally think the comparison is ridiculous. RR came to Michigan already having made a name for himself at West Virginia nationally, and following a team that had just won a bowl game against an Urban Meyer/Tim Tebow lead Florida team, and two years after Michigan had been to a Rose Bowl.
Hoke comes to Michigan after the worst 3 year period in program history as a virtual unkown to most. Wouldn't you expect RR to be able to out recruit Hoke? The fact that these numbers are so similar when comparing the two at this point speaks volumes about Hoke and his staff's talent as recruiters. If Hoke can lead Michigan to even an 8 win season, the caliber of players he recruits should increase even more.
But in the end, none of this will matter if Hoke can do the one thing RR couldn't. Win.
I largely agree, though I would argue that a few factors were working against RR compared to the situation Hoke stepped into.
So I guess my point is that while Hoke definitely deserves credit for his recruiting prowess, let's not crown him the GOAT quite yet. I want him to succeed at UM like nobody's business, but not because of revisionist history or unnecessary cracks at the guy before him.
I think your point 3 is a partial analysis/justification, which many people tend to do (not knocking your point, just wanting to expand on it).
One of the issues that used to just grind from the dying embers of the LC era was that his conservatism on O tended to keep too many of our (on paper) overmatched opponents in the game, therefore forcing most starters/upper-classmen to remain in the games well into the 4th quarter, if not the entire game (both sides of the ball). This, in turn, led to the back-ups being a real fall-off in capability or experience when called upon in the case of injuries or (ugh) rest being needed. Isn't there an old adage about nothing beating game experience?
Compare/contrast to JT at OSU, where he had a nice melange of Soph/Jr/Sr on his units (and got big leads, providing the opportunity for underclassmen/back-ups to get some meaningful gameday experience) when RR arrived, he pointed out repeatedly (seemingly to a deaf audience), that not only was he going to install his system, but that most of these players hadn't played a (meaningful) collegiate down in their careers at U-M...and the past 3 years kind of bore some of those points out.
I totally agree about the conservatism on offense hurting the team's depth. I still remember watching that Ball St. (I think) game a couple of years ago and dying that the starters had to stay out there well into the 4th quarter. Carr was a lot of things, and I respect him not pulling a Beilima (sp?) and crapping on overmatched teams, but getting your backups meaningful playing time was something his approach never addressed.
hey that's an amazing comparison. thanks a ton for sharing it !!
I remember a few years ago, I was one of a number of people that helmed MGoBlog during Brian's Egyptian vacation. I remember that while a number of people were positive, there was a tremendous outpouring of "YOU IDIOTS AREN'T BRIAN, YOU JOKES ARE STUPID GO HOME."
I criticize Misopogon as much as anyone, but this thread is waaaaayyyy out of line. Writing daily about anything is really really fucking hard - that's why there's only one Brian. Shit, my blog has like 7 billion contributors, and we post twice a week when we're feeling it.
The fact that you can be an asshole to Misopogon without doing so to his face shouldn't enbolden people to do it here, merely because he's the guy brave enough to try to entertain you jackals for two fucking weeks. As I said, writing daily about Michigan is HARD, and doing so for mass public-consumption is harder.
I'm not saying you can't disagree, but 1/2 the shit on this thread is sheer ad hominem. I know a few dudes that have tail-gated with Misopogon in the past, and by all accounts, he's a painfully nice individual. He doesn't deserve the ration of shit you dicks are giving him.
You're being generous at half. A lot of the people here who are complaining about Brian's supposed negativity engage in nothing but ad hominem arguments and willful misreadings.
It's as if the only way folks know how to express disagreement with someone is by disrespecting them.
I think the internet arena encourages contentious discourse -- and I like that to a certain extent -- but it's lame to throw tomatoes at people when the thrower hasn't even tried to put together a coherent/thoughtful diary or comment together, let alone do so successfully.
Misopogon took the idea from Dudeness's thread (which at 200 or so comments is apparently still something a lot of people are interested in) and tried to provide some context for the numbers.
I don't understand how this should rile anybody up.
Tamakwa reference on Mgoblog? This is a mind-boggling convergence that causes me to question the very nature of the universe. But I think you have made a critical typo. LH was certainly the consensus HGIC, but EC and LB (not LS) were the other contenders. Did you mean LB? I'm something of an authority on this. LH EC LB SA DG and JT surprised my 13-day when their trip showed up at Eustache during our rest day. Still the highest concentration of beautiful yet convened in one place and time.
UPDATE: Misopogon has graciously corrected the typo.
How on earth did you realize whom he was talking about with just initials? That's crazy. I don't remember anyone's name from camp, let alone would I ever be tipped off by initials when he didn't even say the name of the camp. Crazy.
At any rate, everyone knows LB wins this debate
I have made this comment in other posts. In my opinion the better comparison is Hoke to Weis. You can make a better comparison of R^2 to Willingham. Here are the similiarities.
Willingham and R^2 were considered outsiders who were not the first choice and who were hated by the establishment from day one because they were outsiders.
For various reasons neither had much success thus giving ammo to the haters.
The AD who hired them left and was replaced by someone who did on day one did not like them.
Both were replaced by popular unknowns who had charisma and dubious backgrounds for predicting football success. I would say no college hc experience and a career sub five hundred record as equally dubious. Both new hires were loved by the insiders.
Both inherited teams that saw almost the entire starting roster returning.
Both generated massive hype and a very succesful first year of recruiting.
what happens next? I don't know.
That means Rich is going to get another job, suck miserably at that too and get canned right away again. And I'm not sure I buy that either.
1) I miss the old commitment charts with the sad joshs and company - those didn't survive the collaboration did they? If so - link to updated ones?
2) Thanks for the heads up on Alphas - between stationed in Europe and TDY all the damn time to Africa, it's hard to keep up on the latest shows :-)
Awhile back Brian said something like, "Michigan's fans would eat themselves and the program if they could." Judging by the back and forth over the last few days on the board I have to agree with that sentiment.
"This is unfair to judge the coaches against each other. Rodriguez was hired in November and was taking over a Citrus-bound program with a retiring Hall of Fame coach, while Hoke was hired in the middle of January after a blowout Gator loss and following a fired guy."
Rich was hired December 17, 2007 not November 2007 compared to Brady Hoke being hired January 11, 2011. Not stating which had a better starting recruiting class just pointing out that Rich was not hired in November and if I remember correctly Rich was hired the day before the December recruiting dead period. This is not a comparison to which first recruiting class was/is better.
The part I deleted (which was worth deleting) had the timeframe correct and even links to a bunch of goings on around then so I don't know why i screwed it up later.
Let's shutdown MGoBlog.
Day 201: RR got up early did a some extra stretching, popped in a Josh Groban CD and went about his business of opening up a recruiting pipeline at Lifeskills. Huge advantage to Hoke who spent his 201st day pointing Michigan Men in the right direction.
Hoke 148 RR 53