upset watch

And, at last, we are at the end. Since Week One, August 30^th, I’ve been covering college football games. 18 weeks later, we arrive at the final set of college football games for the 2011-2012 season. What better way to end the season than to cover the remaining BCS bowl games, including the BCS National Championship?

For those of you keeping track, Big 12 teams are 6-1 (Missouri, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State won; Iowa State lost). Conference USA teams are 3-1 (Marshall, Southern Miss, and Houston won; Tulsa lost). MAC teams are 3-1 in bowl games (Temple, Ohio University, and Toledo won; Western Michigan lost). SEC teams are 4-2 (Mississippi State, Auburn, South Carolina, and Florida won; Vanderbilt and Georgia lost). Big East teams are 2-1 (Rutgers and Cincinnati won; Louisville lost). Independent teams are 1-1 (BYU won; Notre Dame lost). Sun Belt teams are 1-1 (Louisiana-Lafayette won, Florida International lost). Mountain West teams are 2-3 (TCU and Boise State won; Wyoming, San Diego State, and Air Force lost). Big Ten teams are 3-6 (Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan State won; Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, Nebraska, Ohio State, and Wisconsin lost). ACC teams are 2-4 (North Carolina State and Florida State won; North Carolina, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Virginia lost). PAC-12 teams are 2-5 (Utah and Oregon won; Arizona State, California, Washington, UCLA, and Stanford lost). WAC teams are 0-3 (Utah State, Louisiana Tech, and Nevada).

During the regular season, the Upset Watch reviewed picks from the previous week, noted the bad picks, and pointed out a few games to give the underdog some credit in, even if it was only in Vegas. It also looked at one or two sure-fire favorites (two when Michigan wasn’t playing).

Because this is the bowl season (and our last hurrah for the 2011-2012 regular season), we’ll cover each of the bowl games, splitting them up by week.

Be sure to check out my website, Before Visiting the Sportsbook, throughout the week, for more content.

Recap:

Wins

Utah (8-5) +3.5 Georgia Tech (8-5). Result: Utah 30 Georgia Tech 27 [Props to Trebor and One Inch Woody for correctly predicting Utah would cover].

Illinois (7-6) -1.5 UCLA (6-8). Result: Illinois 20 UCLA 14 [Props to Trebor and One Inch Woody for correctly predicting Illinois would cover].

South Carolina (11-2) +1.0 Nebraska (9-4). Result: South Carolina 30 Nebraska 13 [Props to Lord Maker, Trebor, and One Inch Woody for correctly predicting South Carolina would cover].

Oregon (12-2) -5.5 Wisconsin (11-3). Result: Oregon 45 Wisconsin 38 [Props to Lord Maker for correctly predicting Oregon would cover].

Stanford (11-2) +4.0 Oklahoma State (12-1).Result: Oklahoma State 41 Stanford 38 [Props to Trebor for correctly predicting Stanford would cover].

Push

Northwestern (6-7) +11.0 Texas A&M (7-6). Result: Texas A&M 33 Northwestern 22.

Losses

Vanderbilt (6-7) -1.5 Cincinnati (10-3). Result: Cincinnati 31 Vanderbilt 24 [Props to Trebor and One Inch Woody for correctly predicting Cincinnati would cover].

Virginia (8-5) +3.0 Auburn (8-5). Result: Auburn 43 Virginia 24 [Props to One Inch Woody for correctly predicting Auburn would cover].

Penn State (9-4) +9.0 Houston (13-1). Result: Houston 30 Penn State 14 [Props to Lord Maker, Trebor, and BrewCityBlue for correctly predicting Houston would cover].

Georgia (10-4) -2.0 Michigan State (11-3). Result: Michigan State 33 Georgia 30 [Props to Trebor and One Inch Woody for correctly predicting Michigan State would cover].

Ohio (6-7) +2.0 Florida (7-6). Result: Florida 24 Ohio 17 [Props to BrewCityBlue for correctly predicting Florida would cover].

This Week

The final week of the college football season kicks off Tuesday night when (#13) Michigan meets (#11) Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl (8:30 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3); this marks only the second meeting between the Big Ten and ACC in the BCS (2005-2006 season featured Penn State and Florida State in the Orange Bowl, with Penn State winning 26-23 in 3OT). On Wednesday night, (#15) Clemson faces off against (#23) West Virginia in the Orange Bowl (8:30 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3). No games on Thursday night, so we’ll skip to Friday night, for the Cotton Bowl Classic, where (#8) Kansas State and (#6) Arkansas meet at Jerryworld (8:00 PM EST/FOX). Finally, next Monday the 2011-2012 NCAA Champion will be crowned, where conference rivals (#2) Alabama and (#1) LSU meet in New Orleans (8:30 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN 3D/ESPN3).

Upset Watch

Clemson (10-3) -3.0 West Virginia (9-3) (@ Miami Gardens, FL). The Mountaineers are 17^th in total offense (100^th rushing, 7^th passing); Clemson is 29^th (61^st rushing, 21^st passing). West Virginia is 27^th in total defense (51^st rushing, 32^nd passing); the Tigers are 59^th (80^th rushing, 34^th passing). Clemson leads the series 1-0, with a 27-7 victory over West Virginia in 1989 (Gator Bowl). Clemson is 16-17 all time in bowl games (1-4 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 1-4 ATS as a favorite in last 5). West Virginia is 13-17 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 1-0 ATS as an underdog in last 5). West Virginia Coach Dana Holgorsen is 9-3 (6-6 ATS, 2-1 ATS underdog); Clemson Coach Dabo Swinney is 29-18 (21-18 ATS, 14-12 ATS favorite). Clemson is 6-4 ATS as a favorite this year (8-5 overall ATS); West Virginia is 2-1 ATS as an underdog this year (6-6 overall ATS). West Virginia’s last bowl game was the 2010 Champ Sports Bowl, a 23-7 loss to North Carolina State; Clemson’s last bowl game was the 2010 Meineke Car Care Bowl, a 31-26 loss to USF. Take Clemson to cover the points.

Arkansas (10-2) -7.5 Kansas State (10-2) (@ Arlington, TX). The Wildcats are 96^th in total offense (29^th rushing, 109^th passing); Arkansas is 27^th (81^st rushing, 13^th passing). Kansas State is 74^th in total defense (39^th rushing, 104^th passing); the Razorbacks are 51^st (79^th rushing, 27^th passing). Kansas State leads the series 3-1, with a 16-7 victory over Arkansas in 1926, 3-0 in 1911, and 5-0 in 1910. Arkansas defeated Kansas State 28-7 in 1967. Arkansas is 12-23-3 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 1-2 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Kansas State is 6-8 all time in bowl games (1-4 SU in last 5; 0-5 ATS in last 5; 0-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Kansas State Coach Bill Snyder is 59-40 (52-40 ATS, 22-10 ATS underdog) since 2001; Arkansas Coach Bobby Petrino is 74-26 (59-38-1 ATS, 41-22-1 ATS favorite) since 2001. Arkansas is 6-3 ATS as a favorite this year (7-5 overall ATS); Kansas State is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this year (9-3 overall ATS). Kansas State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Pinstripe Bowl, a 36-34 loss to Syracuse; Arkansas’s last bowl game was the 2010 Sugar Bowl, a 31-26 loss to Ohio. Take Arkansas to cover the points.

Southern Methodist (7-5) +7.0 Pittsburgh (6-6) (@ Birmingham, AL). The Mustangs are 53^rd in total offense (98^th rushing, 22^nd passing); Pittsburgh is 84^th (68^th rushing, 76^th passing). Southern Methodist is 37^th in total defense (31^st rushing, 60^th passing); the Panthers are 41^st (24^th rushing, 70^th passing). The series is tied at 2-2-1, with SMU defeating Pittsburgh 7-3 in 1983 (Cotton Bowl) and 33-14 in 1948. Pittsburgh defeated SMU 20-7 in 1942 and 34-7 in 1938. The teams tied 7-7 in 1940. SMU is 5-7-1 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 3-0 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Pittsburgh is 12-15 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 2-0 ATS as an favorite in last 5). Pittsburgh Coach Keith Patterson is 0-0 (0-0-0 ATS, 0-0-0 ATS favorite); SMU Coach June Jones is 87-56 (65-68-2 ATS, 29-26-1 ATS underdog) since 2001. SMU is 1-4 ATS as an underdog this year (5-7 overall ATS); Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year (7-5 overall ATS). Pittsburgh’s last bowl game was the 2010 Compass Bowl, in Birmingham, a 27-10 win over Kentucky; SMU’s last bowl game was the 2010 Armed Forces Bowl, a 16-14 loss to Army. Take SMU to cover the points, and win.

Arkansas State (10-2) -1.0 Northern Illinois (10-3) (@ Mobile, AL). The Red Wolves are 25^th in total offense (55^th rushing, 17^th passing); Northern Illinois is 10^th (9^th rushing, 59^th passing). Arkansas State is 20^th in total defense (15^th rushing, 54^th passing); the Huskies are 87^th (83^rd rushing, 75^th passing). Northern Illinois leads the series 6-1, with a 31-30 victory over Arkansas State in 1996, 38-16 in 1994, 23-7 in 1993, 31-0 in 1992, 22-21 in 1991, and 35-0 in 1990. Arkansas State defeated Northern Illinois 28-21 in 1995. Arkansas State is 0-1 all time in bowl games (1-0 ATS; 0-0 ATS as a favorite). Northern Illinois is 3-3 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 1-3 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Northern Illinois Coach Dave Doeren is 10-3 (5-8 ATS, 1-1 ATS underdog); Arkansas State Coach David Gunn is 0-0 (0-0 ATS, 0-0 ATS favorite). Arkansas State is 8-2 ATS as a favorite this year (10-2 overall ATS); Northern Illinois is 1-1 ATS as an underdog this year (5-8 overall ATS). Arkansas State’s last bowl game was the 2005 New Orleans Bowl, a 31-19 loss to Southern Miss; Northern Illinois’s last bowl game was the 2010 Humanitarian Bowl, a 40-17 win over Fresno State. Take Arkansas State to cover the points.

Alabama (11-1) +1.0 LSU (13-0) (@ New Orleans, LA). The Crimson Tide are 30^th in total offense (15^th rushing, 72^nd passing); LSU is 75^th (17^th rushing, 105^th passing). Alabama is 1^st in total defense (1^st rushing, 1^st passing); the Tigers are 2^nd (3^rd rushing, 8^th passing). Alabama leads the series 45-25-5. In the five recent meetings, LSU leads 3-2, with a 9-6 victory over Alabama earlier this year, 24-21 in 2010, and 41-34 in 2007. Alabama defeated LSU 24-15 in 2009 and 27-21 in 2008. LSU is 22-19-1 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 3-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Alabama is 33-22-3 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 0-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Alabama Coach Nick Saban is 94-24 (66-46-2 ATS, 7-5-2 ATS underdog) since 2001; LSU Coach Les Miles is 103-38 (65-66-5 ATS, 39-39-2 ATS favorite). LSU is 8-3 ATS as a favorite this year (10-3 overall ATS); Alabama is 0-0 ATS as an underdog this year (8-4 overall ATS). Alabama’s last bowl game was the 2010 Capital One Bowl, a 49-7 win over Michigan State; LSU’s last bowl game was the 2010 Cotton Bowl, a 41-24 win over Texas A&M. Take Alabama to cover the points, and win.

Gameday Prediction

The Wolverines are 34^th in total offense (12^th rushing, 90^th passing); Virginia Tech is 38^th (31^st rushing, 66^th passing). Michigan is 18^th in total defense (35^th rushing, 16^th passing); the Hokies are 12^th (17^th rushing, 41^st passing). These teams have never met before. Michigan is 19-21 all time in bowl games (1-4 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 0-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Virginia Tech is 9-15 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Virginia Tech Coach Frank Beamer is 110-36 (78-61-2 ATS, 11-4-0 ATS underdog) since 2001; Michigan Coach Brady Hoke is 57-52 (58-43-3 ATS, 24-13 ATS favorite). Michigan is 6-3 ATS as a favorite this year (8-4 overall ATS); Virginia Tech is 0-0 ATS as an underdog this year (4-9 overall ATS). Michigan’s last bowl game was the 2010 Gator Bowl, a 52-14 loss to Mississippi State; Virginia Tech’s last bowl game was the 2010 Orange Bowl, a 40-12 loss to Stanford.

Michigan is 2-1 against teams fielding top 25 defenses, defeating Illinois and Ohio, but losing to Michigan State; the Wolverines are 3-0 against top 40 offenses (Northwestern, Notre Dame, and San Diego State). Virginia Tech’s two losses came at the hands of Clemson, allowing an average of 390 yards (222 passing yards – 56.9% of offense), while being outscored 61-13. The Hokies are 10-1 when they outgain their opponents on the ground (1-1 when outgained on the ground). Virginia Tech is led by QB Logan Thomas (2799 passing yards, 59.2% completion, and 29 total TDs), RB David Wilson (1627 rushing yards, 6.1/carry, and 9 rushing TDs), and WRs Danny Coale (787 receiving yards, 15.1/catch, and 3 receiving TDs) and Jarrett Boykin (731 receiving yards, 12.8/catch, and 5 receiving TDs). Virginia Tech is 2-1 when Wilson is held under 100 yards rushing, being outscored 65-60 (average of 22-20); the Hokies are 9-1 when Wilson meets or exceeds the 100-yard plateau, outscoring opponents 311-158 (average of 31-16). Take Michigan to cover the points.

Michigan 24 Virginia Tech 16

Who ya got?

So far only two Big Ten teams have played in bowl games; between now and the next Upset Watch, on Tuesday, January 3^rd, seven Big Ten teams will have played in bowl games, leaving only Michigan left to play.

For those of you keeping track, SEC teams are 1-0 (Mississippi State). Big 12 teams are 4-1 (Missouri, Texas, Baylor, and Oklahoma won; Iowa State lost). MAC teams are 3-1 in bowl games (Temple, Ohio University, and Toledo won; Western Michigan lost). Conference USA teams are 2-1 (Marshall and Southern Miss won; Tulsa lost). ACC teams are 2-2 (North Carolina and Wake Forest lost; North Carolina State and Florida State won). Independent teams are 1-1 (Notre Dame lost; BYU won). Big East teams are 1-1 (Louisville lost; Rutgers won). Big Ten teams are 1-1 (Purdue won; Iowa lost). Sun Belt teams are 1-1 (Louisiana-Lafayette won, Florida International lost). Mountain West teams are 2-3 (Wyoming, San Diego State, and Air Force lost; TCU and Boise State won). PAC-12 teams are 0-3 (Arizona State, California, and Washington). WAC teams are 0-3 (Utah State, Louisiana Tech, and Nevada).

During the regular season, the Upset Watch reviewed picks from the previous week, noted the bad picks, and pointed out a few games to give the underdog some credit in, even if it was only in Vegas. It also looked at one or two sure-fire favorites (two when Michigan wasn’t playing).

Because this is the bowl season (and our last hurrah for the 2011-2012 regular season), we’ll cover each of the bowl games, splitting them up by week.

As a reminder, the Michigan game will be covered on the January 3^rd posting.

Be sure to check out my website, Before Visiting the Sportsbook, throughout the week, for more content.

Recap:

Wins

Texas (8-5) -3.0 California (7-6). Result: Texas 21 California 10 [Props to wolver767 and Lord Maker for correctly predicting Texas would cover].

Florida State (9-4) -2.5 Notre Dame (8-5). Result: Florida State 18 Notre Dame 14 [Props to One Inch Woody and Lord Maker for correctly predicting Florida State would cover].

Baylor (10-3) -9.0 Washington (7-6). Result: Baylor 67 Washington 56 [Props to wolver767, One Inch Woody, Lord Maker, and Trebor for correctly predicting Baylor would cover].

Brigham Young (10-3) -1.0 Tulsa (8-5). Result: Brigham Young 24 Tulsa 21 [Props to One Inch Woody for correctly predicting Brigham Young would cover].

Push

Toledo (9-4) -1.0 Air Force (7-6). Result: Toledo 42 Air Force 41.

Losses

Louisville (7-6) +3.0 North Carolina State (8-5). Result: North Carolina State 31 Louisville 24 [Props to One Inch Woody and jamiemac for correctly predicting North Carolina State would cover].

Iowa State (6-7) +2.5 Rutgers (9-4). Result: Rutgers 27 Iowa State 13 [Props to Trebor for correctly predicting Rutgers would cover].

Mississippi State (7-6) -6.5 Wake Forest (6-7). Result: Mississippi State 23 Wake Forest 17 Mississippi State (6-6) [Props to One Inch Woody for correctly predicting Wake Forest would cover].

Iowa (7-5) +16.0 Oklahoma (9-3). Result: Oklahoma 31 Iowa 14 [Props to Lord Maker for correctly predicting Oklahoma would cover].

This Week

Six bowl games that take place between now and the next watch will have a top 25 team playing in them. An ACC/SEC matchup ends the games for 2011, with Virginia and (#25) Auburn meeting in the Chick-fil-A Bowl (7:30 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN 3D/ESPN3). The TicketCity Bowl kicks off the January bowl games, with at large choice (#19) Houston meeting (#22) Penn State (12:00 PM EST/ESPNU/ESPN3). A pair of early afternoon games involve Big Ten/SEC matchups; (#17) Michigan State looks to get Coach Mark Dantonio’s first bowl win as head coach; Michigan State’s last bowl win was in 2001, under then Coach Bobby Williams. The Spartans will meet (#16) Georgia in the Outback Bowl (1:00 PM EST/ABC). (#20) Nebraska will play in their first bowl game as a Big Ten member, meeting (#9) South Carolina in the Capital One Bowl (1:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN 3D/ESPN3). In the Granddaddy of them all, (#10) Wisconsin will make their second straight trip to Pasadena, facing (#5) Oregon, who will be in their second straight BCS bowl game (5:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3). Wrapping up the January 2^nd bowl games, once considered national title contenders, (#3) Oklahoma State will meet (#4) Stanford in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (8:30 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3).

Upset Watch

Northwestern (6-6) +11.0 Texas A&M (6-6) (@ Houston, TX). The Aggies are 7^th in total offense (21^st rushing, 18^th passing); Northwestern is 31^st (36^th rushing, 35^th passing). Texas A&M is 66^th in total defense (13^th rushing, 113^th passing); the Wildcats are 80^th (90^th rushing, 58^th passing). These teams have never met. Texas A&M is 13-19 all time in bowl games (0-5 SU in last 5; 0-5 ATS in last 5; 0-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Northwestern is 1-8 all time in bowl games (0-5 SU in last 5; 3-1-1 ATS in last 5; 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Northwestern Coach Pat Fitzgerald is 40-35 (31-40 ATS, 20-18 ATS underdog); Texas A&M Coach Tim DeRuyter is 0-0 (0-0 ATS, 0-0 ATS favorite). Texas A&M is 3-8 ATS as a favorite this year (3-9 overall ATS); Northwestern is 3-4 ATS as an underdog this year (5-7 overall ATS). Northwestern’s last bowl game was the 2010 TicketCity Bowl, a 45-38 loss to Texas Tech; Texas A&M’s last bowl game was the 2010 Cotton Bowl, a 41-24 loss to LSU. Take Northwestern to cover the points.

Utah (7-5) +3.5 Georgia Tech (8-4) (@ El Paso, TX). The Yellow Jackets are 17^th in total offense (3^rd rushing, 112^th passing); Utah is 110^th (82^nd rushing, 99^th passing). Georgia Tech is 45^th in total defense (70^th rushing, 30^th passing); the Utes are 29^th (7^th rushing, 89^th passing). These teams have never met. Georgia Tech is 22-17 all time in bowl games (0-5 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 0-3 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Utah is 12-4 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 2-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Utah Coach Kyle Whittingham is 64-25 (44-41-2 ATS, 12-10-0 ATS underdog); Georgia Tech Coach Paul Johnson is 79-47 (67-49-2 ATS, 28-28-1 ATS favorite). Georgia Tech is 4-3-1 ATS as a favorite this year (5-6-1 overall ATS); Utah is 3-3 ATS as an underdog this year (5-7 overall ATS). Georgia Tech’s last bowl game was the 2010 Independence Bowl, a 14-7 loss to Air Force; Utah’s last bowl game was the 2010 Las Vegas Bowl, a 26-3 loss to Boise State. Take Utah to cover the points.

Vanderbilt (6-6) -1.5 Cincinnati (9-3) (@ Memphis, TN). The Bearcats are 56^th in total offense (37^th rushing, 70^th passing); Vanderbilt is 97^th (47^th rushing, 98^th passing). Cincinnati is 46^th in total defense (6^th rushing, 105^th passing); the Commodores are 19^th (27^th rushing, 33^rd passing). Vanderbilt leads the series 4-3, with a 34-24 victory over Vanderbilt in 1994, 17-7 in 1993, 13-9 in 1977, and 32-0 in 1934. Cincinnati defeated Vanderbilt 33-7 in 1976, 6-0 in 1899, and 10-0 in 1898. Vanderbilt is 2-1-1 all time in bowl games (1-1 ATS; 0-1 ATS as a favorite). Cincinnati is 5-6 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 0-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Cincinnati Coach Butch Jones is 40-24 (31-28-3 ATS, 9-12 ATS underdog); Vanderbilt Coach James Franklin is 6-6 (9-3 ATS, 4-0 ATS favorite). Vanderbilt is 4-0 ATS as a favorite this year (9-3 overall ATS); Cincinnati is 1-2 ATS as an underdog this year (6-5-1 overall ATS). Vanderbilt’s last bowl game was the 2008 Music City Bowl, in Memphis, a 16-14 win over Boston College; Cincinnati’s last bowl game was the 2009 Sugar Bowl, a 51-24 loss to Florida. Take Vanderbilt to cover the points.

Illinois (6-6) -1.5 UCLA (6-7) (@ San Francisco, CA). The Fighting Illini are 86^th in total offense (42^nd rushing, 91^st passing); UCLA is 62^nd (30^th rushing, 81^st passing). Illinois is 7^th in total defense (42^nd rushing, 4^th passing); the Bruins are 91^st (96^th rushing, 68^th passing). UCLA leads the series 6-5, with a 35-17 victory over Illinois in 2004, 6-3 in 2003, 6-3 in 1991 (Sun Bowl), 45-9 in 1984 (Rose Bowl), 18-14 in 1958, and 16-6 in 1957. Illinois defeated UCLA 26-7 in 1964, 18-12 in 1963, 27-13 in 1951, 14-6 in 1950, and 45-14 in 1947 (Rose Bowl). Illinois is 7-9 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 1-0 ATS as a favorite in last 5). UCLA is 14-15-1 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 1-0 ATS as an underdog in last 5). UCLA Coach Mike Johnson is 0-0 (0-0-0 ATS, 0-0-0 ATS underdog); Illinois Coach Vic Koenning is 4-19 (10-10-1 ATS, 0-0 ATS favorite) since 2001. Illinois is 3-7 ATS as a favorite this year (5-7 overall ATS); UCLA is 4-6 ATS as an underdog this year (5-8 overall ATS). Illinois’s last bowl game was the 2010 Texas Bowl, a 38-14 win over Baylor; UCLA’s last bowl game was the 2009 EagleBank Bowl, a 30-21 win over Temple. Take Illinois to cover the points.

Virginia (8-4) +3.0 Auburn (7-5) (@ Atlanta, GA). The Cavaliers are 51^st in total offense (53^rd rushing, 62^nd passing); Auburn is 104^th (38^th rushing, 106^th passing). Virginia is 30^th in total defense (34^th rushing, 50^th passing); the Tigers are 78^th (99^th rushing, 45^th passing). The series is tied 1-1, with Virginia defeating Auburn 19-0 in 1998 and Auburn defeating Virginia 28-17 in 1997. Auburn is 21-13-2 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 2-2 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Virginia is 7-10 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 3-0 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Virginia Coach Mike London is 12-12 (10-12-2 ATS, 6-7-0 ATS underdog); Auburn Coach Gene Chizik is 34-29 (31-29 ATS, 12-13 ATS favorite). Auburn is 1-3 ATS as a favorite this year (4-8 overall ATS); Virginia is 3-2 ATS as an underdog this year (5-6-1 overall ATS). Auburn’s last bowl game was the 2010 BCS National Championship, a 22-19 win over Oregon; Virginia’s last bowl game was the 2007 Gator Bowl, a 31-28 loss to Texas Tech. Take Virginia to cover the points, and win.

Penn State (9-3) +9.0 Houston (12-1) (@ Dallas, TX). The Cougars are 1^st in total offense (62^nd rushing, 1^st passing); Penn State is 94^th (54^th rushing, 96^th passing). Houston is 64^th in total defense (77^th rushing, 38^th passing); the Nittany Lions are 10^th (48^th rushing, 5^th passing). Penn State leads the series 2-0, with a 31-14 victory over Houston in 1977 and 24-7 in 1964. Penn State is 27-14-2 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 2-2 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Houston is 8-11-1 all time in bowl games (1-4 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Penn State Coach Tom Bradley is 1-2 (1-1-1 ATS, 1-1-1 ATS underdog); Houston Coach Tony Levine is 0-0 (0-0 ATS, 0-0 ATS favorite). Houston is 10-3 ATS as a favorite this year (10-3 overall ATS); Penn State is 1-2-1 ATS as an underdog this year (3-8-1 overall ATS). Penn State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Outback Bowl, a 37-24 loss to Florida; Houston’s last bowl game was the 2009 Armed Forces Bowl, a 47-20 loss to Air Force. Take Penn State to cover the points.

Georgia (10-3) -2.0 Michigan State (10-3) (@ Tampa, FL). The Spartans are 60^th in total offense (76^th rushing, 44^th passing); Georgia is 39^th (41^st rushing, 49^th passing). Michigan State is 5^th in total defense (12^th rushing, 11^th passing); the Bulldogs are 3^rd (9^th rushing, 7^th passing). Georgia leads the series 2-0, with a 24-12 victory over Michigan State in 2009 (Capital One Bowl) and 34-27 in 1989 (Gator Bowl). Georgia is 26-17-3 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 3-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Michigan State is 7-14 all time in bowl games (0-5 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 1-4 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Michigan State Coach Mark Dantonio is 61-39 (49-44-4 ATS, 17-9-1 ATS underdog); Georgia Coach Mark Richt is 106-37 (69-64-4 ATS, 47-43-2 ATS favorite). Georgia is 8-2 ATS as a favorite this year (8-4-1 overall ATS); Michigan State is 3-2 ATS as an underdog this year (9-4 overall ATS). Michigan State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Capital One Bowl, a 49-7 loss to Alabama; Georgia’s last bowl game was the 2010 Liberty Bowl, a 10-6 loss to UCF. Take Georgia to cover the points.

South Carolina (10-2) +1.0 Nebraska (9-3) (@ Orlando, FL). The Cornhuskers are 59^th in total offense (13^th rushing, 103^rd passing); South Carolina is 74^th (26^th rushing, 97^th passing). Nebraska is 36^th in total defense (66^th rushing, 17^th passing); the Gamecocks are 4^th (45^th rushing, 2^nd passing). Nebraska leads the series 3-0, with a 30-21 victory over South Carolina in 1987, 27-24 in 1986, and 28-6 in 1964. South Carolina is 4-12 all time in bowl games (1-4 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 0-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Nebraska is 24-23 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Nebraska Coach Bo Pelini is 39-15 (27-25-1 ATS, 24-21-1 ATS favorite); South Carolina Coach Steve Spurrier is 64-37 (52-42-3 ATS, 21-21-2 ATS underdog) since 2001. South Carolina is 0-1 ATS as an underdog this year (5-6-1 overall ATS); Nebraska is 4-5-1 ATS as a favorite this year (4-7-1 overall ATS). South Carolina’s last bowl game was the 2010 Chick-fil-A Bowl, a 26-17 loss to Florida State; Nebraska’s last bowl game was the 2010 Holiday Bowl, a 19-7 loss to Washington. Take South Carolina to cover the points, and win.

Ohio (6-6) +2.0 Florida (6-6) (@ Jacksonville, FL). The Buckeyes are 107^th in total offense (27^th rushing, 116^th passing); Florida is 102^nd (75^th rushing, 87^th passing). Ohio is 24^th in total defense (52^nd rushing, 15^th passing); the Gators are 9^th (40^th rushing, 9^th passing). Florida leads the series 1-0, with a 41-14 victory over Ohio in 2007 (BCS National Championship). Florida is 19-19 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 3-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Ohio is 20-22 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 2-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Ohio Coach Luke Fickell is 6-6 (6-6 ATS, 4-1 ATS underdog); Florida Coach Will Muschamp is 6-6 (4-8 ATS, 4-3 ATS favorite). Florida is 4-3 ATS as a favorite this year (4-8 overall ATS); Ohio is 4-1 ATS as an underdog this year (6-6 overall ATS). Florida’s last bowl game was the 2010 Outback Bowl, a 37-24 win over Penn State; Ohio’s last bowl game was the 2010 Sugar Bowl, a 31-26 win over Arkansas. Take Ohio to cover the points.

Oregon (11-2) -5.5 Wisconsin (11-2) (@ Pasadena, CA). The Badgers are 15^th in total offense (10^th rushing, 63^rd passing); Oregon is 6^th (5^th rushing, 68^th passing). Wisconsin is 8^th in total defense (47^th rushing, 3^rd passing); the Ducks are 60^th (46^th rushing, 82^nd passing). Wisconsin leads the series 3-1 with a 27-23 victory over Oregon in 2000, 22-19 in 1978, and 22-10 in 1977. Oregon defeated Wisconsin 31-28 in 2001. Oregon is 9-15 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 0-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Wisconsin is 11-11 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 3-2 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Wisconsin Coach Bret Bielema is 60-18 (39-34-1 ATS, 6-8 ATS underdog); Oregon Coach Chip Kelly is 33-6 (21-16-2 ATS, 18-13-2 ATS favorite). Oregon is 5-6-1 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6-1 overall ATS); Wisconsin is 0-0 ATS as an underdog this year (7-6 overall ATS). Oregon’s last bowl game was the 2010 BCS National Championship, a 22-19 loss to Auburn; Wisconsin’s last bowl game was the 2010 Rose Bowl, in Pasadena, a 21-19 loss to TCU. Take Oregon to cover the points.

Stanford (11-1) +4.0 Oklahoma State (11-1) (@ Glendale, AZ). The Cardinal are 11^th in total offense (22^nd rushing, 26^th passing); Oklahoma State is 3^rd (43^rd rushing, 2^nd passing). Stanford is 25^th in total defense (5^th rushing, 78^th passing); the Cowboys are 107^th (84^th rushing, 102^nd passing). These teams have never met. Oklahoma State is 13-8 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 3-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Stanford is 10-11-1 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 3-0 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Stanford Coach David Shaw is 11-1 (9-3 ATS, 0-0-0 ATS underdog); Oklahoma State Coach Mike Gundy is 58-30 (50-32-3 ATS, 33-14-1 ATS favorite). Oklahoma State is 8-3 ATS as a favorite this year (9-3 overall ATS); Stanford is 0-0 ATS as an underdog this year (9-3 overall ATS). Oklahoma State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Alamo Bowl, a 36-10 win over Arizona; Stanford’s last bowl game was the 2010 Orange Bowl, a 40-12 win over Virginia Tech. Take Stanford to cover the points.

Who ya got?

Only the SEC has yet to have had one team play in a bowl game; they’ll finally have one team play on Friday (Mississippi State). We round in to mid-bowl season form this weekend, with 15 games being played between Friday and Tuesday.

For those of you keeping track, Conference USA teams are 2-0 (Marshall and Southern Miss). Big 12 teams are 1-0 (Missouri). Big Ten teams are 1-0 (Purdue). MAC teams are 2-1 in bowl games (Temple and Ohio University won; Western Michigan lost). Mountain West teams are 2-2 (Wyoming and San Diego State lost; TCU and Boise State won). Sun Belt teams are 1-1 (Louisiana-Lafayette won, Florida International lost). ACC teams are 0-1 (North Carolina). PAC-12 teams are 0-1 (Arizona State). WAC teams are 0-3 (Utah State, Louisiana Tech, and Nevada).

During the regular season, the Upset Watch reviewed picks from the previous week, noted the bad picks, and pointed out a few games to give the underdog some credit in, even if it was only in Vegas. It also looked at one or two sure-fire favorites (two when Michigan wasn’t playing).

Because this is the bowl season (and our last hurrah for the 2011-2012 regular season), we’ll cover each of the bowl games, splitting them up by week.

As a reminder, I’ll have more picks on Saturday, December 31^st, before noon, covering the games through January 2^nd. The Michigan game will be covered on the January 3^rd posting.

Be sure to check out my website, Before Visiting the Sportsbook, throughout the week, for more content.

Recap:

Wins

Marshall (7-6) +5.0 Florida International (8-5). Result: Marshall 20 Florida International 10.

Boise State (12-1) -13.5 Arizona State (6-7). Result: Boise State 56 Arizona State 24 [Props to Trebor and BrewCityBlue for correctly predicting Boise State would cover].

Southern Miss (12-2) -5.5 Nevada (7-6). Result: Southern Miss 24 Nevada 17 [Props to Trebor for correctly predicting Southern Miss would cover].

Missouri (8-5) -3.5 North Carolina (7-6) (@ Shreveport, LA). Result: Missouri 41 North Carolina 24 [Props to Trebor and BrewCityBlue for correctly predicting Missouri would cover].

Losses

TCU (11-2) -9.5 Louisiana Tech (8-5) (@ San Diego, CA). Result: TCU 31 Louisiana Tech 24 [Props to BrewCityBlue for correctly predicting Louisiana Tech would cover].

Western Michigan (7-6) +2.5 Purdue (7-6). Result: Purdue 37 Western Michigan 32.

This Week

Only three bowl games that take place between now and Friday will have a top 25 team playing in them. In a traditional PAC-12/Big 12 matchup, the Holiday Bowl will pair California and (#24) Texas (8:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3) on Wednesday night. On Thursday night, Heisman trophy winner QB Robert Griffin III leads (#12) Baylor against Washington in the Alamo Bowl (9:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3). A late Friday night game will pair Iowa against (#14) Oklahoma in the Insight Bowl (10:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3).

Upset Watch

Louisville (7-5) +3.0 North Carolina State (7-5) (@ Charlotte, NC). The Cardinals are 104^th in total offense (94^th rushing, 79^th passing); North Carolina State is 93^rd (107^th rushing, 52^nd passing). Louisville is 23^rd in total defense (10^th rushing, 61^st passing); the Wolfpack are 39^th (41^st rushing, 55^th passing). Louisville leads the series 3-0, with a 29-10 victory over North Carolina State in 2007, 35-14 in 1994, and 26-2 in 1951. North Carolina State is 13-11-1 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-0-1 ATS in last 5; 3-0 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Louisville is 7-7-1 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 0-2 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Louisville Coach Charlie Strong is 14-12 (15-11 ATS, 8-4 ATS underdog); North Carolina State Coach Tom O’Brien is 85-52 (68-53-3 ATS, 30-31-2 ATS favorite) since 2001. North Carolina State is 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year (5-6-1 overall ATS); Louisville is 6-0 ATS as an underdog this year (8-4 overall ATS). Louisville’s last bowl game was the 2010 Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, a 31-28 win over Southern Miss; North Carolina State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Champs Sports Bowl, a 23-7 win over West Virginia. Take Louisville to cover the points.

Toledo (8-4) -1.0 Air Force (7-5) (@ Washington, DC). The Rockets are 8^th in total offense (14^th rushing, 29^th passing); Air Force is 19^th (2^nd rushing, 113^th passing). Toledo is 76^th in total defense (28^th rushing, 109^th passing); the Falcons are 70^th (113^th rushing, 6^th passing). These teams have never met before. Toledo is 7-4 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 2-2 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Air Force is 10-10-1 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 2-2 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Air Force Coach Troy Calhoun is 34-18 (28-20-1 ATS, 10-7-1 ATS underdog); Toledo Coach Matt Campbell is 0-0 (0-0-0 ATS, 0-0-0 ATS favorite). Toledo is 5-3 ATS as a favorite this year (7-5 overall ATS); Air Force is 2-2 ATS as an underdog this year (5-7 overall ATS). Toledo’s last bowl game was the 2010 Little Caesars Bowl, a 34-32 loss to Florida International; Air Force’s last bowl game was the 2010 Independence Bowl, a 14-7 win over Georgia Tech. Take Toledo to cover the points.

Texas (7-5) -3.0 California (7-5) (@ San Diego, CA). The Golden Bears are 37^th in total offense (48^th rushing, 38^th passing); Texas is 45^th (19^th rushing, 85^th passing). California is 26^th in total defense (37^th rushing, 43^rd passing); the Longhorns are 14^th (11^th rushing, 47^th passing). Texas leads the series 5-0, with a 56-15 victory over California in 1970, 17-0 in 1969, 28-3 in 1961, and 33-0 in 1959. Texas is 25-22-2 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 1-2 ATS as a favorite in last 5). California is 10-9-1 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 0-0 ATS as an underdog in last 5). California Coach Jeff Tedford is 79-47 (64-58-1 ATS, 16-16-1 ATS underdog); Texas Coach Mack Brown is 113-28 (70-67-3 ATS, 55-48-2 ATS favorite) since 2001. Texas is 5-3 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6 overall ATS); California is 2-2 ATS as an underdog this year (7-5 overall ATS). Texas’s last bowl game was the 2009 BCS National Championship, a 37-21 loss to Alabama; California’s last bowl game was the 2009 Poinsettia Bowl, a 37-27 win over Utah. Take Texas to cover the points.

Florida State (8-4) -2.5 Notre Dame (8-4) (@ Orlando, FL). The Seminoles are 73^rd in total offense (99^th rushing, 34^th passing); Notre Dame is 33^rd (51^st rushing, 33^rd passing). Florida State is 6^th in total defense (2^nd rushing, 18^th passing); the Irish are 34^th (58^th rushing, 34^th passing). Florida State leads the series 4-2, with a 37-0 victory over Notre Dame in 2003, 31-26 in 1996 (Orange Bowl), 23-16 in 1994, and 19-13 in 1981; Notre Dame defeated Florida State 34-24 in 2002 and 31-24 in 1993. Florida State is 23-14-2 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 5-0 ATS in last 5; 1-0 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Notre Dame is 12-11-1 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 2-2 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Notre Dame Coach Brian Kelly is 71-32 (52-41-4 ATS, 20-9-2 ATS underdog); Florida State Coach Jimbo Fisher is 18-8 (14-12 ATS, 12-8 ATS favorite). Florida State is 6-4 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6 overall ATS); Notre Dame is 0-1 ATS as an underdog this year (5-7 overall ATS). Florida State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Chick-fil-A Bowl, a 26-17 win over South Carolina; Notre Dame’s last bowl game was the 2010 Sun Bowl, a 33-17 win over Miami (FL). Take Florida State to cover the points.

Baylor (9-3) -9.0 Washington (7-5) (@ San Antonio, TX). The Huskies are 57^th in total offense (67^th rushing, 51^st passing); Baylor is 2^nd (18^th rushing, 5^th passing). Washington is 94^th in total defense (54^th rushing, 116^th passing); the Bears are 114^th (102^nd rushing, 112^th passing). Baylor leads the series 3-1, with a 17-14 victory over Washington in 1965, 13-7 in 1955, and 34-7 in 1954; Washington defeated Baylor 35-14 in 1964. Baylor is 8-9 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 1-2 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Washington is 15-14-1 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 3-0 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Washington Coach Steve Sarkisian is 19-18 (20-17-0 ATS, 11-12-0 ATS underdog); Baylor Coach Art Briles is 58-53 (54-52-1 ATS, 30-20-1 ATS favorite). Baylor is 6-2 ATS as a favorite this year (8-4 overall ATS); Washington is 3-3 ATS as an underdog this year (7-5 overall ATS). Baylor’s last bowl game was the 2010 Texas Bowl, a 38-14 win over Illinois; Washington’s last bowl game was the 2010 Holiday Bowl, a 19-7 win over Nebraska. Take Baylor to cover the points.

Brigham Young (9-3) -1.0 Tulsa (8-4) (@ Dallas, TX). The Cougars are 41^st in total offense (52^nd rushing, 46^th passing); Tulsa is 24^th (25^th rushing, 41^st passing). BYU is 17^th in total defense (21^st rushing, 29^th passing); the Golden Hurricane are 90^th (38^th rushing, 118^th passing). Brigham Young leads the series 6-1, with a 49-24 victory over Tulsa in 2006, 49-39 in 1997, 55-30 in 1996, 45-35 in 1995, 38-15 in 1984, and 25-7 in 1971. Tulsa defeated Brigham Young 55-47 in 2007. Brigham Young is 11-17-1 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 3-1 ATS in last 5; 2-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Tulsa is 8-9 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 5-1 ATS in last 5; 2-1 ATS underdog in last 5). Brigham Young Coach Bronco Mendenhall is 65-24 (48-37-1 ATS, 33-26-0 ATS favorite); Tulsa Coach Bill Blankenship is 8-4 (7-5 ATS, 2-3 ATS underdog). Brigham Young is 5-4 ATS as a favorite this year (8-4 overall ATS); Tulsa is 2-3 ATS as an underdog this year (7-5 overall ATS). Tulsa’s last bowl game was the 2010 Hawai’i Bowl, a 62-35 victory over Hawai’i; Brigham Young’s last bowl game was the 2010 New Mexico Bowl, a 52-24 win over UTEP. Take Brigham Young to cover the points.

Iowa State (6-6) +2.5 Rutgers (8-4) (@ Bronx, NY). The Scarlet Knights are 100^th in total offense (115^th rushing, 46^th passing); Iowa State is 55^th (35^th rushing, 75^th passing). Rutgers is 13^th in total defense (57^th rushing, 10^th passing); the Cyclones are 99^th (100^th rushing, 72^nd passing). These teams have never met. Rutgers is 4-2 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 4-0-1 ATS in last 5; 3-0-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Iowa State is 3-7 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 3-1-1 ATS in last 5; 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Iowa State Coach Paul Rhodes is 18-19 (20-16 ATS, 13-10-0 ATS underdog); Rutgers Coach Greg Schiano is 67-67 (68-57-1 ATS, 23-26 ATS favorite). Rutgers is 4-2 ATS as a favorite this year (8-4 overall ATS); Iowa State is 7-3 ATS as an underdog this year (7-5 overall ATS). Rutgers’s last bowl game was the 2009 St. Petersburg Bowl, a 45-24 win over UCF; Iowa State’s last bowl game was the 2009 Insight Bowl, a 14-13 win over Minnesota. Take Iowa State to cover the points.

Mississippi State (6-6) -6.5 Wake Forest (6-6) (@ Nashville, TN). The Bulldogs are 87^th in total offense (45^th rushing, 92^nd passing); Wake Forest is 76^th (96^th rushing, 36^th passing). Mississippi State is 43^rd in total defense (65^th rushing, 23^rd passing); the Demon Deacons are 75^th (70^th rushing, 71^st passing). These teams have never met. Mississippi State is 8-6 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 1-0 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Wake Forest is 6-3 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 2-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Wake Forest Coach Jim Grobe is 68-66 (63-63-4 ATS, 39-26-3 ATS underdog); Mississippi State Coach Dan Mullen is 20-17 (19-17 ATS, 10-6 ATS favorite). Mississippi State is 4-3 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6 overall ATS); Wake Forest is 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog this year (7-4-1 overall ATS). Mississippi State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Gator Bowl, a 52-14 win over Michigan; Wake Forest’s last bowl game was the 2008 EagleBank Bowl, a 29-19 win over Navy. Take Mississippi State to cover the points.

Iowa (7-5) +16.0 Oklahoma (9-3) (@ Tempe, AZ). The Hawkeyes are 70^th in total offense (77^th rushing, 56^th passing); Oklahoma is 4^th (49^th rushing, 4^th passing). Iowa is 68^th in total defense (64^th rushing, 66^th passing); the Sooners are 62^nd (49^th rushing, 83^rd passing). Oklahoma leads the series 1-0, with a 21-6 victory over Iowa in 1979. Oklahoma is 26-17-1 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Iowa is 14-10-1 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 1-3 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz is 92-46 (75-56-3 ATS, 22-16-3 ATS underdog) since 2001; Oklahoma Coach Bob Stoops is 118-29 (74-67-4 ATS, 55-50-3 ATS favorite) since 2001. Oklahoma is 6-5 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6 overall ATS); Iowa is 1-3 ATS as an underdog this year (5-7 overall ATS). Oklahoma’s last bowl game was the 2010 Fiesta Bowl, a 48-20 win over Connecticut; Iowa’s last bowl game was the 2010 Insight Bowl, a 27-24 win over Missouri. Take Iowa to cover the points.

Who ya got?

Readers from last week will recall I was in Curacao. I visited Aruba, as well. If you ever get the chance to visit Aruba, do it. There are two casinos within walking distance of port, including one having a sportsbook, in Oranjestad (Seaport Casino).

For those of you keeping track, MAC teams are 2-0 in bowl games (Temple and Ohio University). Sun Belt teams are 1-0 (Louisiana-Lafayette). WAC teams are 0-1 (Utah State) and Mountain West teams are 0-2 (Wyoming and San Diego State). The Mountain West Conference should get off the schneid this week, with TCU and Boise State playing this week, two of their best teams.

During the regular season, the Upset Watch reviewed picks from the previous week, noted the bad picks, and pointed out a few games to give the underdog some credit in, even if it was only in Vegas. It also looked at one or two sure-fire favorites (two when Michigan wasn’t playing).

Because this is the bowl season (and our last hurrah for the 2011-2012 regular season), we’ll cover each of the bowl games, splitting them up by week.

Be sure to check out my website, Before Visiting the Sportsbook, throughout the week, for more content.

Recap:

Wins

Temple (9-4) -6.0 Wyoming (8-5). Result: Temple 37 Wyoming 15 [Props to Trebor, Maize and Blue in OH, sammylittle for correctly predicting Temple would cover].

Ohio University (10-4) +3.0 Utah State (7-6). Result: Ohio University 24 Utah State 23 [Props to Trebor, jamiemac, sammylittle for correctly predicting Ohio University would cover].

Losses

San Diego State (8-5) -4.5 Louisiana-Lafayette (8-5). Result: Louisiana-Lafayette 32 San Diego State 30.

This Week

Only three bowl games will take place between now and the next Upset Watch, which will be on December 20^th (we’ll have six bowls on the next Watch). Temple earned an at-large selection to the New Mexico Bowl (since the PAC-12 didn’t fill their bowl allotment) to face the #4 selection from the Mountain West #4, Wyoming, on Saturday (2:00 PM EST/ESPN). The Idaho Bowl will pair Ohio University, the #3 selection from the MAC, against Utah State, the #2 selection from the WAC (5:30 PM EST/ESPN). The final game on Saturday is in New Orleans, with San Diego State, an at large selection since Conference USA did not fill their bowl allotment, against Louisiana-Lafayette, the top choice from the Sun Belt (9:00 PM EST/ESPN).

Upset Watch

Marshall (6-6) +5.0 Florida International (8-4) (@ St. Petersburg, FL). The Golden Panthers are 80^th in total offense (70^th rushing, 69^th passing); Marshall is 101^st (92^nd rushing, 74^th passing). Florida International is 33^rd in total defense (23^rd rushing, 64^th passing); the Thundering Herd are 86^th (61^st rushing, 100^th passing). These teams have not met before. Marshall is 6-2 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 3-1 ATS underdog in last 5). Florida International is 1-0 all time in bowl games (0-0 ATS favorite). Marshall Coach Doc Holliday is 11-13 (11-12-1 ATS, 7-7-1 ATS as an underdog); Florida International Coach Mario Cristobal is 24-37 (31-30 ATS, 11-12 ATS as a favorite). Florida International is 3-5 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6 overall ATS); Marshall is 5-3 ATS as an underdog this year (7-5 overall ATS). Florida International’s last bowl game was the 2010 Little Caesars Bowl, a 34-32 win over Toledo; Marshall’s last bowl game was the 2009 Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, a 21-17 win over Ohio University. Take Marshall with the points.

TCU (10-2) -9.5 Louisiana Tech (8-4) (@ San Diego, CA). The Horned Frogs are 28^th in total offense (20^th rushing, 60^th passing); Louisiana Tech is 50^th (70^th rushing, 45^th passing). TCU is 32^nd in total defense (29^th rushing, 56^th passing); the Bulldogs are 55^th (25^th rushing, 96^th passing). These teams have not met before. TCU is 12-14-1 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 2-3 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Louisiana Tech is 2-2-1 all time in bowl games (2-1 ATS; 1-1 ATS as an underdog). TCU Coach Gary Patterson is 108-30 (70-58-5 ATS, 51-42-3 ATS favorite); Louisiana Tech Coach Sonny Dykes is 5-7 (5-7 ATS, 3-4 ATS underdog). TCU is 4-6-1 ATS as a favorite this year (5-6-1 overall ATS); Louisiana Tech is 6-0 ATS as an underdog this year (10-2 overall ATS). Louisiana Tech’s last bowl game was the 2008 Independence Bowl, a 17-10 win over Northern Illinois; TCU’s last bowl game was the 2010 Rose Bowl, a 21-19 win over Wisconsin. Take TCU to cover the points.

Boise State (11-1) -13.5 Arizona State (6-6) (@ Las Vegas, NV). The Sun Devils are 26^th in total offense (78^th rushing, 11^th passing); Boise State is 9^th (40^th rushing, 10^th passing). Arizona State is 88^th in total defense (59^th rushing, 107^th passing); the Broncos are 16^th (22^nd rushing, 25^th passing). Arizona State leads the series 1-0, with a 56-7 victory over Boise State in 1996. Boise State is 7-4 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Arizona State is 12-11-1 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 2-2 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Arizona State Coach Dennis Erickson is 42-43 (41-37-2 ATS, 19-19-2 ATS underdog) since 2001; Boise State Coach Chris Petersen is 72-6 (43-31 ATS, 36-29 ATS favorite). Boise State is 4-8 ATS as a favorite this year (4-8 overall ATS); Arizona State is 3-7 ATS as an underdog this year (4-8 overall ATS). Arizona State’s last bowl game was the 2007 Holiday Bowl, a 52-34 loss to Texas; Boise State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Las Vegas Bowl, a 26-3 win over Utah. Take Boise State to cover the points.

Southern Miss (11-2) -5.5 Nevada (7-5) (@ Honolulu, HI). The Wolfpack are 5^th in total offense (8^th rushing, 30^th passing); Southern Miss is 13^th (23^rd rushing, 73^rd passing). Nevada is 52^nd in total defense (56^th rushing, 63^rd passing); the Golden Eagles are 31^st (20^th rushing, 69^th passing). Southern Miss leads the series 2-0, with a 55-28 victory over Nevada in 1998 and a 35-19 victory in 1997. Southern Miss is 9-10 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Nevada is 4-7 all time in bowl games (1-4 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Nevada Coach Chris Ault is 63-39 (61-48 ATS, 14-19 ATS underdog) since 2004; Southern Miss Coach Larry Fedora is 33-19 (27-23 ATS, 19-16 ATS favorite). Southern Miss 5-5 ATS as a favorite this year (8-5 overall ATS); Nevada is 2-1 ATS as an underdog this year (5-7 overall ATS). Southern Miss’s last bowl game was the 2010 Beef ‘O’ Brady Bowl, a 31-28 loss to Louisville; Nevada’s last bowl game was the 2010 Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, a 20-13 win over Boston College. Take Southern Miss to cover the points.

Missouri (7-5) -3.5 North Carolina (7-5) (@ Shreveport, LA). The Tigers are 12^th in total offense (11^th rushing, 57^th passing); North Carolina is 52^nd (72^nd rushing, 43^rd passing). Missouri is 61^st in total defense (44^th rushing, 91^st passing); the Tar Heels are 40^th (14^th rushing, 90^th passing). Missouri leads the series 2-0, with a 24-3 victory over North Carolina in 1976 and a 27-14 victory in 1973. Missouri is 12-16 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 1-3 ATS as a favorite in last 5). North Carolina is 13-15 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). North Carolina Coach Everett Withers is 7-5 (6-6 ATS, 1-2 ATS underdog); Missouri Coach Gary Pinkel is 84-54 (67-64-1 ATS, 35-35-1 ATS favorite) since 2001. Missouri is 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6 overall ATS); North Carolina is 1-2 ATS as an underdog this year (6-6 overall ATS). Missouri’s last bowl game was the 2010 Insight Bowl, a 27-24 loss to Iowa; North Carolina’s last bowl game was the 2010 Music City Bowl, a 30-27 2OT win over Tennessee. Take Missouri to cover the points.

Western Michigan (7-5) +2.5 Purdue (6-6) (@ Detroit, MI). The Broncos are 23^rd in total offense (87^th rushing, 8^th passing); Purdue is 79^th (39^th rushing, 82^nd passing). Western Michigan is 100^th in total defense (107^th rushing, 53^rd passing); the Boilermakers are 69^th (91^st rushing, 38^th passing). Purdue leads the series 2-0, with a 28-24 victory over Western Michigan in 2002 and a 28-13 victory in 1993. Purdue is 8-7 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 0-3 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Western Michigan is 0-4 all time in bowl games (1-1 ATS; 1-1 ATS as an underdog). Western Michigan Coach Bill Cubit is 47-38 (38-40-3 ATS, 19-22-2 ATS underdog); Purdue Coach Danny Hope is 15-21 (15-19-2 ATS, 5-9-1 ATS favorite). Western Michigan is 3-2 ATS as an underdog this year (8-4 overall ATS); Purdue is 2-2-1 ATS as favorite this year (5-6-1 overall ATS). Western Michigan’s last bowl game was the 2008 Texas Bowl, a 38-14 loss to Rice; Purdue’s last bowl game was the 2007 Motor City Bowl, in Detroit, a 51-48 win over Central Michigan. Take Western Michigan to cover the points, and win.

Who ya got?

As I am writing this article, I am in sunny, warm Ohio (and no it’s not because my couch is on fire – I’m not in Columbus); by the time this article is posted, I’ll be in Curacao.

Between December 17, 2011 and January 9, 2012, there are 24 days, but 35 bowl games. Some say there are too many bowl games (like who/what is Gildan and why are they sponsoring the New Mexico Bowl when they are a Canadian company?). Some will be outdoor cold weather games, like the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Military Bowl, and New Era Pinstripe Bowl. Some cities will host more than one bowl game, like New Orleans (New Orleans Bowl, Sugar Bowl, and BCS Championship Game) and San Diego (Poinsettia and Holiday Bowls). Finally, some states seem to have a corner on the bowl market, like Florida (St. Petersburg , Champs Sports, Outback, Capital One, Gator, and Orange Bowls) – 6, Texas (Alamo, Armed Forces, Texas, Sun, TicketCity, Cotton Bowls) – 6, California (Poinsettia, Holiday, Fight Hunger, and Rose Bowls) – 4, and Louisiana (New Orleans Bowl, Independence, Sugar, and BCS Championship) – 4.

During the regular season, the Upset Watch reviewed picks from the previous week, noted the bad picks, and pointed out a few games to give the underdog some credit in, even if it was only in Vegas. It also looked at one or two sure-fire favorites (two when Michigan wasn’t playing).

Because this is the bowl season (and our last hurrah for the 2011-2012 regular season), we’ll cover each of the bowl games, splitting them up by week.

Be sure to check out my website, Before Visiting the Sportsbook, throughout the week, for more content.

Recap:

Wins

@ New Mexico State (4-9) +14.0 Utah State (7-5). Result: Utah State 24 New Mexico State 21.

Michigan State (10-3) +9.5 Wisconsin (11-2). Result: Wisconsin 42 Michigan State 39 [Props to jrt336 and Trebor for correctly predicting that Michigan State would cover].

West Virginia (9-3) -1.0 @ South Florida (5-7). Result: West Virginia 30 South Florida 27 [Props to jrt336 and BrewCityBlue for correctly predicting that West Virginia would cover].

Push

Syracuse (5-7) +13.0 @ Pittsburgh (6-6). Result: Pittsburgh 33 Syracuse 20.

Losses

Troy (3-9) +17.5 @ Arkansas State (10-2). Result: Arkansas State 45 Troy 14.

@ Florida Atlantic (1-11) +11.5 Louisiana-Monroe (4-8). Result: Louisiana-Monroe 26 Florida Atlantic 0.

Wyoming (8-4) -5.0 @ Colorado State (3-9). Result: Wyoming 22 Colorado State 19.

Poster Picks

Trebor added in LSU (-13.5, 42-10), besides his Michigan State pick.

Bosch picked up a win with Southern Miss (+12.5, 49-28).

BrewCityBlue added in 6(!) more, besides the West Virginia pick, with THE Ohio University (+3.5, 20-23), Oklahoma State (-3.5, 44-10), Baylor (-1.5, 48-24), Southern Miss, and LSU.

Number 7 was on the LSU pick, too.

This Week

Only three bowl games will take place between now and the next Upset Watch, which will be on December 20^th (we’ll have six bowls on the next Watch). Temple earned an at-large selection to the New Mexico Bowl (since the PAC-12 didn’t fill their bowl allotment) to face the #4 selection from the Mountain West #4, Wyoming, on Saturday (2:00 PM EST/ESPN). The Idaho Bowl will pair Ohio University, the #3 selection from the MAC, against Utah State, the #2 selection from the WAC (5:30 PM EST/ESPN). The final game on Saturday is in New Orleans, with San Diego State, an at large selection since Conference USA did not fill their bowl allotment, against Louisiana-Lafayette, the top choice from the Sun Belt (9:00 PM EST/ESPN).

Upset Watch

Temple (8-4) -6.0 Wyoming (8-4) (@ Albuquerque, NM). The Owls are 67^th in total offense (7^th rushing, 117^th passing); Wyoming is 48^th (32^nd rushing, 73^rd passing). Temple is 15^th in total defense (26^th rushing, 19^th passing); the Cowboys are 98^th (115^th rushing, 34^th passing). These two teams last met in 1990, with Wyoming winning 28-23. Temple is 1-2 all time in bowl games (1-1 ATS; 1-1 ATS underdog). Wyoming is 6-6 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS; 3-2 ATS underdog). Wyoming Coach Dave Christensen is 18-19 (21-14-1 ATS, 16-8-1 ATS as an underdog); Temple Coach Steve Addazio is 8-4 (8-4 ATS, 6-4 ATS as a favorite). Temple is 6-4 ATS as a favorite this year (8-4 overall ATS); Wyoming is 5-2 ATS as an underdog this year (7-5 overall ATS). Temple’s last bowl game was the 2009 EagleBank Bowl, a 30-21 loss to UCLA; Wyoming’s last bowl game was the 2009 New Mexico Bowl, in Albuquerque, a 35-28 win over Fresno State. Take Temple to cover the points.

Ohio University (9-4) +3.0 Utah State (7-5) (@ Boise, ID).The Aggies are 20^th in total offense (6^th rushing, 95^th passing); Ohio University is 21^st (24^th rushing, 39^th passing). Utah State is 50^th in total defense (32^nd rushing, 76^th passing); the Bobcats are 42^nd (30^th rushing, 67^th passing). These two teams last met in 1994, with Utah State winning 5-0. Ohio University is 0-5 all time in bowl games (0-3 ATS; 0-2 ATS underdog). Utah State is 1-4 all time in bowl games (0-1 ATS; 0-1 ATS underdog). Ohio University Coach Frank Solich is 49-40 (46-38 ATS, 21-16-1 ATS as an underdog) at Ohio; Utah State Coach Gary Anderson is 15-21 (19-16 ATS, 5-11 ATS as a favorite). Utah State is 2-6 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6 overall ATS); Ohio University is 2-1 ATS as an underdog this year (6-7 overall ATS). Utah State’s last bowl game was the 1997 Humanitarian Bowl, in Boise, a 35-19 loss to Cincinnati; Ohio University’s last bowl game was the 2010 New Orleans Bowl, a 48-21 loss to Troy. Take Ohio University to cover the points, and win.

San Diego State (8-4) -4.5 Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4) (@ New Orleans, LA). The Aztecs are 35^th in total offense (28^th rushing, 64^th passing); Louisiana-Lafayette is 65^th (86^th rushing, 40^th passing). San Diego State is 57^th in total defense (82^nd rushing, 31^st passing); the Ragin’ Cajuns are 72^nd (55^th rushing, 92^nd passing). These two teams have never met before. Louisiana-Lafayette is in their first ever bowl game. San Diego State is 2-4 all time in bowl games (2-1-1 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as a favorite). Louisiana-Lafayette Coach Mark Hudspeth is 8-4 (8-4 ATS, 4-0 ATS as an underdog); San Diego State Coach Rocky Long is 61-50 (54-51-2 ATS, 25-26 ATS as a favorite) since 2001. San Diego State is 3-5 ATS as a favorite this year (5-7 overall ATS); Louisiana-Lafayette is 7-0 ATS as an underdog this year (8-4 overall ATS). San Diego State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Poinsettia Bowl, a 35-14 win over Navy. Take San Diego State to cover the points.

Who ya got?

Only 22 games this weekend, with 19 of them on Saturday. Of the 22 games this weekend, six are conference championship games; so I guess we’ll call this championship weekend? For six teams, it’s a last ditch effort to become bowl eligible (right now 70 teams are bowl eligible; there are 70 bowl spots); so if you are a Ball State, Toledo, or Western Michigan fan, you want these teams to lose (although the winner of Syracuse and Pittsburgh will be bowl eligible for sure).

Army/Navy is December 10^th, while this is a game where we honor our servicemen and servicewomen, there will be no Upset Watch, as there is only one game played. Upset Watch will return for the bowl season.

As typical with the Watch, we’ll review the picks from last week, noting the bad picks, and point out a few games to give the underdog some credit in, even if it is only in Vegas. We’ll also look at two sure-fire favorites (since Michigan’s regular season is over). Be sure to check out my website, Before Visiting the Sportsbook, throughout the week, for more content.

Recap:

Wins

Florida State (8-4) -2.0 @ Florida (6-6). Result: Florida State 21 Florida 7.

Losses

@ Northwestern (6-6) +7.0 Michigan State (10-2). Result: Michigan State 31 Northwestern 17 [Props to Trebor for correctly predicting Michigan State would cover].

*@ Michigan (10-2) -7.5 Ohio (6-6). Result: Michigan 40 Ohio 34 [Props to One Inch Woody for correctly predicting Ohio would cover].

@ Wake Forest (6-5) +1.0 Vanderbilt (5-6). Result: Vanderbilt 41 Wake Forest 7 [Props to One Inch Woody for correctly predicting Wake Forest would cover].

Nevada (6-4) +1.5 @ Utah State (5-5). Result: Utah State 21 Nevada 17.

@ Auburn (7-5) +21.0 Alabama (11-1). Result: Alabama 42 Auburn 14.

UCLA (6-6) +14.5 @ USC (10-2). Result: USC 50 UCLA 0 [Props to One Inch Woody for correctly predicting USC would cover].

*I’m counting this as a loss despite the fact Toussaint was clearly in the end zone, despite the officials “better” judgment.

Poster Picks

Besides the Michigan State game, Trebor added a pair of wins with Purdue (-7.5; 33-25) and Virginia Tech (-4; 38-0).

Gulo_Gulo added a pair, as well, with Texas (+7.5; 27-25) and Wisconsin (-17; 45-7).

Logan88 rode Stanford (-7; 28-14) and Minnesota (+10; 27-7) to victory.

Number 7, following the trend of twos, picked up wins with Georgia (-5.5; 31-17) and Kentucky (+6; 10-7).

This Week

Championship Week begins on Thursday with (#23) West Virginia visiting South Florida (8:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN 3D(!)/ESPN3); the Mountaineers need a win to keep their BCS bowl hopes alive. On Friday, there are a pair of championship games, with Ohio University and Northern Illinois meeting at Ford Field (7:00 PM EST/ESPN2/ESPN3); Northern Illinois returns to the championship game after coming up short last year and Ohio University returns for the second time in three years. UCLA visits (#9) Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship Game (8:00 PM EST/FOX); Oregon has won three straight against UCLA, dating back to 2007.

Six games match top 25 opponents on Saturday. Saturday kicks off with (#24) Southern Miss visiting (#6) Houston in the Conference USA Championship Game (12:00 PM EST/ABC); a BCS bowl is on the line for Houston. (#22) Texas visits (#17) Baylor (3:30 PM EST/ABC); Texas had won 12 straight against Baylor until last year’s 30-22 loss in Austin. The SEC Championship Game is another with BCS bowl implications, matching (#14) Georgia and (#1) LSU in the Georgia Dome (4:00 PM EST/CBS); a Georgia win likely knocks Alabama out of a BCS bowl game. (#10) Oklahoma visits (#3) Oklahoma State in the Bedlam Game, a de facto Big 12 Championship Game (8:00 PM EST/ABC); an Oklahoma State win gives them a BCS bowl bid with a shot at the national title, while an Oklahoma win would likely create a three-way tie for first, with Oklahoma winning by virtue of their 2-0 record against Kansas State and Oklahoma State. In the ACC Championship Game, a rematch occurs between (#5) Virginia Tech and (#20) Clemson, this time, in Charlotte (8:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3); Clemson beat Virginia Tech 23-3 in Blacksburg on October 1^st. After starting 8-0, Clemson is 1-3 in their last four games, the lone win coming by three. In another game involving a rematch, (#15) Wisconsin meets (#13) Michigan State in Indianapolis in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game (8:17 PM EST/FOX); since 2000, the teams have split their ten meetings – Michigan State won on October 22 on a desperation heave by QB Kirk Cousins, 37-31, in East Lansing.

Upset Watch

@ New Mexico State (4-8) +14.0 Utah State (6-5). The (NM St) Aggies are 48^th in total offense (92^nd rushing, 24^th passing); Utah State is 24^th (6^th rushing, 92^nd passing). New Mexico State is 109^th in total defense (105^th rushing, 96^th passing); the (Utah State) Aggies are 48^th (30^th rushing, 74^th passing). Since 1997, New Mexico State is 4-9 SU against Utah State (5-8 ATS); 9 of the last 13 meetings have been decided by 14 points or less. New Mexico State Coach DeWayne Walker is 9-28 (16-19-1 ATS, 15-16-1 ATS as an underdog); Utah State Coach Gary Andersen is 14-21 (19-15 ATS, 5-10 ATS as a favorite). Utah State is 4-2 in Las Cruces since 1997. Utah State is 2-5 ATS as a favorite this year; New Mexico State is 6-4 ATS as an underdog this year. New Mexico State should keep this closer than 14, provided the defense shows up. Take New Mexico State with the points, at home.

Troy (3-8) +17.5 @ Arkansas State (9-2).The Trojans are 65^th in total offense (116^th rushing, 16^th passing); Arkansas State is 26^th (21^st rushing, 18^th passing). Troy is 113^th in total defense (108^th rushing, 95^th passing); the Red Wolves are 36^th (18^th rushing, 47^th passing). Since 2004, Troy is 4-3 SU against Arkansas State (3-4 ATS); Troy has won four straight (3-1 ATS over that span). Arkansas State Coach Hugh Freeze is 9-2 (9-2 ATS, 7-2 ATS as a favorite); Troy Coach Larry Blakeney is 72-61 since 2001 (60-57-2 ATS, 31-24-1 ATS as an underdog). Troy is in the midst of a surprisingly bad season, as they were picked to win the Sun Belt; by contrast, Arkansas State was picked in the middle and will finish first, regardless of the outcome of the game. Arkansas State, until this year, has only made one bowl game. Despite Troy’s struggles on defense, they have the potential to keep this game close due to QB Corey Robinson’s (3100 passing yards, 62.3% completion, 19 passing TDs, but 13 INTs) success through the air. Take Troy with the points.

@ Florida Atlantic (1-10) +11.5 Louisiana-Monroe (3-8). The Owls are 119^th in total offense (106^th rushing, 110^th passing); Louisiana-Monroe is 61^st (73^rd rushing, 49^th passing). Florida Atlantic is 69^th in total defense (73^rd rushing, 60^th passing); the Warhawks are 29^th (12^th rushing, 76^th passing). Florida Atlantic is 2-5 SU against Louisiana-Monroe since 2004 (1-5-1 ATS). Louisiana-Monroe Coach Todd Berry is 12-47 since 2003 (24-32-2 ATS, 3-7-1 ATS as a favorite); Florida Atlantic Coach Howard Schnellenberger is 58-73 since 2001 (36-52-2 ATS, 23-36-2 ATS as an underdog). Florida Atlantic got their first win of the season last week, at home, 38-35 over UAB. Neither team is making a bowl game. This is Coach Schnellenberger’s last game, as he is retiring. A career that started in 1979 with Miami (FL) now comes to a close in Boca Raton. Take Florida Atlantic with the points, and to win.

Michigan State (10-2) +9.5 Wisconsin (10-2) (@ Indianapolis, IN).The Spartans are 64^th in total offense (78^th rushing, 46^th passing); Wisconsin is 12^th (10^th rushing, 63^rd passing). Michigan State is 3^rd in total defense (11^th rushing, 8^th passing); the Badgers are 7^th (44^th rushing, 3^rd passing). Wisconsin Coach Bret Bielema is 49-16 (72-61-2 ATS, 46-45-2 ATS as a favorite); Michigan State Coach Mark Dantonio is 61-38 (48-44-5 ATS, 33-34-5 ATS as an underdog). Since 1999, Michigan State is 5-6 SU against Wisconsin (5-6 ATS, but 4-2 since 2004), including 1-0 this year (+7.5; 37-31 in East Lansing). If you read the Upset Watch: Week 8, I noted the home team dominance; the home team has now won seven straight, but this one is on a neutral site. Since their meeting, Michigan State is 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS); Wisconsin is 4-1 SU (2-3 ATS). Wisconsin should win, but winning by ten seems a bit much. Take Michigan State with the points.

Syracuse (5-6) +13.0 @ Pittsburgh (5-6).The Orange are 89^th in total offense (96^th rushing, 64^th passing); Pittsburgh is 83^rd (61^st rushing, 78^th passing). Syracuse is 71^st in total defense (43^rd rushing, 99^th passing); the Panthers are 41^st (22^nd rushing, 69^th passing). Since 1997, Syracuse is 6-8 SU against Pittsburgh (0-6 since 2005) (5-9 ATS). Pittsburgh Coach Todd Graham is 48-29 (41-33-1 ATS, 18-23-1 ATS as a favorite); Syracuse Coach Doug Marrone is 17-19 (16-18-1 ATS, 9-11 ATS as an underdog). I normally stay away from Big East games; the conference is just too unpredictable (who would have thought Louisville would be in the running for a BCS bowl?). Winner of this game is bowl eligible. Syracuse was picked, by most, to finish at the bottom of the Big East. Many experts had Pittsburgh finishing near the top of the Big East. Syracuse, under Marrone, has been an overachieving team. Pittsburgh should win the game, but Syracuse should keep it within two touchdowns. Take Syracuse with the points.

Sure-fire Favorites

West Virginia (8-3) -1.0 @ South Florida (5-6) (THURS). The Mountaineers are 16^th in total offense (101^st rushing, 6^th passing); South Florida is 30^th (32^nd rushing, 39^th passing). West Virginia is 25^th in total defense (49^th rushing, 30^th passing); the Bulls are 34^th (14^th rushing, 83^rd passing). Since 2005, West Virginia is 3-3 SU against South Florida (2-4 ATS). West Virginia Coach Dana Holgorsen is 8-3 (5-6 ATS, 3-5 ATS as a favorite); South Florida Coach Skip Holtz is 51-38 (48-39-1 ATS, 24-11-1 ATS as an underdog). Holtz’s gaudy numbers come from his days at East Carolina; he is 13-11 at South Florida (10-14 ATS, 4-3 as an underdog). I have yet to offer a pick for a game that is not on Saturday, but I couldn’t resist this one. Both teams have a lot to play for: A South Florida win makes them bowl eligible; a West Virginia win coupled with a Cincinnati win gives West Virginia the Big East title. Consider that South Florida’s record in the Big East is mediocre (21-27); West Virginia is 32-10 in the Big East since 2005 (when South Florida entered the conference). The last time West Virginia lost more than two conference games, it was 2001, Rich Rodriguez’s first year. South Florida QB BJ Daniels’s (2378 passing yards, 60.4% completion 12 passing TDs, but 6 INTs) status for the game is in doubt; he did not play in a losing effort to Louisville, last week. Take note of West Virginia’s pass offense against South Florida’s pass defense. Take West Virginia to cover.

Wyoming (7-4) -5.0 @ Colorado State (3-8).The Cowboys are 50^th in total offense (35^th rushing, 72^nd passing); Colorado State is 91^st (62^nd rushing, 90^th passing). Wyoming is 100^th in total defense (114^th rushing, 42^nd passing); the Rams are 85^th (116^th rushing, 14^th passing). Since 1997, Wyoming is 5-9 SU against Colorado State (7-7 ATS). Wyoming Coach Dave Christensen is 17-19 (21-13-1 ATS, 4-5 ATS as a favorite); Colorado State Coach Steve Fairchild is 16-32 (19-27 ATS, 14-16 ATS as an underdog). Wyoming is 2-5 in their last seven trips to Ft. Collins, winning the last time there, in 2009, 17-16. These teams meet for the Bronze Boot; the “Border War” had had over 100 meetings since 1899; the teams have meet every year since 1946. Take note of Wyoming’s rushing offense against Colorado State’s run defense. Wyoming is bowl eligible for only the third time since 2000 (Las Vegas Bowl in 2004 and New Mexico Bowl in 2009; Wyoming won both of those bowl games). I would be remiss if I didn’t point out Wyoming is 7-4 ATS this year (2-2 ATS favorite) and Colorado State is 3-8 ATS (3-4 ATS underdog); Coach Fairchild is 9-4 (1-2 this year) as a home underdog, though. Take Wyoming to cover.

Who ya got?