UM BASKETBALL

According to the Sagarin ratings, which predict actual game outcomes:*

IN BB, UM is #1 in the B1G.  In the nation, UM is #3,  IND #4, and Ohio is not in the top 10.*

IN FB, on a neutral field UM would still be favored over Ohio (by 0.15 pts).   Why? UM’s nonconference opponents included the two teams now favored to be in the national title game.  By contrast, Ohio’s “marquee” nonconference game this year supposedly was Cal, which is now not even in the top 70 nationally.  Moreover, Ohio’s  other wins were often very narrow.  In fact, even for the UM game, they were only +2 pts after subtracting 3pts for home field (not even considering the injury to UM’s starting QB). 

What then should we make of Ohio’s claim that they could win the AP national title?  That claim should be laughable to any educated voter.  In fact, Ohio is not even ranked in the top 20 nationally by Sagarin (they are #24, whereas UM is #22).  Also, Ohio will not be tested in a competitive bowl or conference championship.  Indeed, in the latter, on a neutral field, they would be  favored by less than half a point vs WISC, 2.5 pts vs NW and they would be underdogs to both NEB and UM.

Interestingly, ND's delusions of grandeur also should be tempered.  Although human pollsters will no doubt put them #1, would ND actually be favored to beat all the other teams according unbiased Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings?  No, not at this point. Why?  ND had many narrow wins, even over marginal teams and teams expected to be huge challenges--like USC--turned out not to be so great.  Thus, by Sagarin's ratings, while ALA is #1 and Oregon #2, ND is only #3  Both ALA and OR both would be favored over ND by large margins on a neutral field.  In addition, unlike ALA but like Ohio, ND will not be tested in a conference championship game.

*I report only those ratings that predict actual game outcomes.  For BB I take the average of ELO and PREDICTOR ratings.   For FB, I report only PREDICTOR ratings (not the ELO-CHESS, which is used by the BCS but does not consider margin of victory or predict actual game outcomes).

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm

The Hoops team has played well during the pre Big Ten schedule.  Granted the preseason expectations were very low and the team has easily exceeded those expectations.

Can they maintain this level of play in the Big Ten? 

I'm going to be an optimist and say:

Morris will be able to see over the smaller PG in the BTen and drive and dish and ave.14p/6a/3r game in BT

Smotrcyz and Hardaway will be up and down and have nearly identical stats...each averaging  8/2/2

Outside shooting will be improved over last year....shoot  34% from 3pt  & 45% from 2pt

8 wins -10 losses IN THE BIG TEN regular season

1 win in BT tourney

Make the NCAA