things go poorly
The map you see below is a compilation of all the players that have been on the U of M roster starting with Bo and ending with RichRod.
There is a lot of information here...but lets start with the Michigan/Ohio region and work our way out to the rest of the country.
Michigan vs Ohio
There has been a lot of discussion on this board about the Great Wall of Tressel, and how he shut down the border. Lets take a look at how our roster was compiled with Michigan and Ohio kids over the past few decades.
A couple of things stick out here...
- During Bo's era 1 out of 4 kids on the team were from Ohio. From Lloyd's tenure and to the present it was 1 out of 10.
- Our presence in Ohio started to decline long before Tressel got there.
- RichRod always caught a lot of flack for not recruiting Michigan players, but he averaged more Michigan players then previous coaches (Yes, I know we are dealing with sample size, and most of his roster was still Lloyd's players.)
Here is a look at some of the raw data I was working with...
Rich Rod's Midwest:
Regional and National Footprint
The graphs you see below break down our roster by Region....
I was pretty amazed to see that 82% of Bo's roster was compiled of MidWest kids. I'll update this or do a Part 2......but it will be interesting to see how Hoke's first class will break down once it's complete. Right now its leaning torwards Bo's percentages.
** note: All data was pulled from http://bentley.umich.edu/athdept/football/football.htm
[Ed-M: I used basically the same database for this year's HTTV article on recruiting Ohio, and ran into a similar problem: walk-ons. Bentley doesn't say who's a scholarship player and who isn't. Also the nature of a 4- to 5-year turnover cycle makes it hard to see what effect a coach is having except by tracking trends, not total % of players. For example, Bo's Ohio recruiting had been trending down for a long time in his later years, so that when Moeller took over it looks like the story is Mo recruited nationally and Bo was a Midwest guy. In truth, Bo took over a team from Bump that had been capping at 80% people from a mitten- or trash can-shaped state. Bo started by scouring Ohio but once his program was established he went all around the country. To wit:
If you break that into trend-lines...
...the conclusions are radically different than the percentages above suggest. Also RR and Mo weren't really there long enough to make any judgments, except the first chart shows a pretty radical growth in Ohio prospecting by RR replacing in-state success of Carr.]
I love these write ups on the new recruits. They are very informative and interesing. However, one thing always irks me. The "Fake 40 Time Sections" and the wide belief on MGo that fast 40 times don't translate to the field.
1st: 40 yard dashes are timed in a mulitude of ways (i.e., outdoors, indoors, grass, astro turf, field turf, basketball courts, rubber tracks, wind-aided, below 60 degrees, above 80 degrees, above sea level, at sea level, hand held, electronic, etc.). ALL OF THESE FACTOR IN A 40 YARD DASH TIME. Yes, at the NFL Combine they post the times to the public. But, the majority of scouts take their own numbers back to their respective teams. They do so, b/c they trust their own timing and this gives them at least one constant when comparing times. Times in FLA, TX, GA, etc. are faster for a number of reasons. As fast as Denard is, he wouldn't run those times in Michigan during April when it is still 55 degrees outside, windy, and above sea level. The kids aren't necessarily faster...in fact, the Midwest usually has some of the faster track kids in the Nation when it comes to timing at National Events. I can go on and on. But, the times you see aren't "FAKE" they just don't correlate to whatever imaginary scale being used to determine the validity of an "ACTUAL" 40 time.
2. Yes, when someone has consistent fast times this usually means they always run fast. Even on the football field. As an observer, sometimes it is really hard to judge how fast someone is. Hate to bring the whole Tate vs Denard thing up, AGAIN (I know how much you hate it)! But, there will be absolutely no comparison to how fast each one is...track speed, field speed, game speed, it won't matter! Now, some players don't run as fast a 40 time as they are phsyically capable, but this is due to lack of coaching. But, if they are running fast times they are gonna run fast on the field if they know what they hell they are doing. A smart player is confident, a confident player can play full speed.
3. And USAIN BOLT IS ONLY 22 years old! How fast do you think he was at 18? I can guarantee you he was running well under a 4.4 second 40 yard dash time. Look at Ted Ginn. He was widely considered to have world class speed...and it showed on the field as he consistently ran past opposing defenders while playing with the SUCKeyes! Someone else do the google search to find out what he ran in HS...
***Sorry, I just don't like to call 40 times fake*** The time may not exemplify a players actual speed, but they are usually are representative of how fast someone may have run at that particular time.