there would have to be some to wash away
MIchigan is the top team in the B1G according to The Sagarin poll. Below I list the PREDICTOR ratings--which are the best in actually predicting game outcomes. I also list the overall national rank according to these ratings.*
1. Michigan (#13 overall, rating 85.33)
2. Ohio (#18 overall, rating 83.15) INELIGIBLE for postseason
3. Neb (#23, rating 81.74)
4. Wisconsin (#27, rating 79.69)
5. PSU (#28, 79.64) ALSO INELIGIBLE for postseason
6. MSU (#36. 77.2)
One predicts the outcome of future games by subtracting the two Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings (with + or -3 for Home Field). So, if we play Wisc in INDY for the B1G title, we should be favored by 5-6 points. If Ohio were not ineligible and Michigan played them in INDY, UM would beat Ohio. In Columbus, the game would be essentially a tossup (less than a one point margin). Also, Michigan would be favored over MSU by 8 points on a neutral field and by 11 points this coming week in Ann Arbor (+3 for home field).
I don't know what the Vegas point spread is, but I suspect that it will be smaller, since UM-MSU is a rivalry game.
*Michigan also is #1 when Sagarin's PREDICTOR ratings are averaged with the ELO-CHESS ratings. The latter do not consider point margins and are not as good in predicting actual game outcomes. Regrettably, the overall BCS computer rankings use the ELO-CHESS Sagarin ratings--as well as other computer polls that often overweigh WL records and underweigh SOS. So, we will not do as well when the BCS computer rankings come out. However, I do not believe that any of these alternative ranks has been shown to do as well as the Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings in forecasting actual game outcomes. And that's what's important in predicting the rest of the UM season.
During our bye week/wife week, Ohio is playing against Michigan State. These are our two most important opponents and rivals. I still feel numb after the tire fire in South Bend, and haven't posted in days. What can you say?
However, life goes on, so here are three simple questions:
- Who do you want to win: Ohio or Michigan State?
- Who do you think will actually win: Ohio or Michigan State?
- Who winning benefits Michigan the most: Ohio or MSU?
It is harder for me to answer these questions than usual. I have a certain malaise such that I really don't care right now. More than that, there are many and varied reasons I dislike both of them, and don't care for either to win. The bye week is good for me personally, because I don't want to watch any college football this weekend.
The answer to the questions is the same for me: I want Ohio to win, think they will win, and if they win, it benefits Michigan because Michigan State has a loss against them, affecting who wins our division. I don't think Maxwell will perform any better against Ohio's defense than he did against ND, and I think Braxton Miller may just be good enough to score against Michigan State's defense. I do believe the matchup between Michigan State's defense and Ohio's offense (especially Braxton) is the key to the game.
I wanted to put this in mgo.licio.us, but had no clue how. Sorry mods.
Michigan with USC?
Late to the board, as the 2nd half of this "B1G Classic" just started, but sports TV options are limited right now. This one has to be the biggest win of the year, right? To me, OSU seemed bigger at the time but based on what each has done since, this one was impressive.
Would love to get a rubber match with either in the B10 tourney...
Texas A&M may be stealing MSU's DC, Narduzzi. Kevin Sumlin has been authorized to spend some big time $$ on a DC and Narduzzi is apparently at the top of his list.
I'll be happy if Narduzzi gets the job. Good for A&M, bad for MSU.