men's basketball

I was just reading an article by Jason King over at the WWL about the strength of the Big Ten this year. Toward the end of the article, King discussed some random things about the season so far, and this was one of them:

4. Random thought here, but the race for National Coach of the Year is going to be an interesting one. Lots of good candidates but no hands-down favorites. At least not yet. Here are some guys who may be considered: Dana Altman (Oregon), Brad Stevens (Butler), Bruce Weber (Kansas State), Tubby Smith (Minnesota), Gregg Marshall (Wichita State), Larry Shyatt (Wyoming) and Larry Eustachy (Colorado State).

And for the record, I tend to favor coaches who have surpassed expectations set forth during the preseason, which tends to put guys like Mike Krzyzewski and Bill Self at a disadvantage. But I would have no problem if the coach of a top-five-caliber team ended up winning the award. Staying at the top is often as difficult as getting there.

To be honest, I was surprised that he didn't mention Beilein with those other coaches. Granted, I'm sure he wasn't trying to provide an exhaustive list, but I still feel like Beilein has to be on a short list of coaches in the running.

Your thoughts? I'll hang up and listen.

Results: The B1Ggest disadvantage goes to MSU, then to Indiana.  The B1Ggest advantage goes to Penn State, then Iowa.

The remainder of the teams on a list of scheduling difficulty vary in their positions depending on the analysis used.  To list the order of schedules this early in the season, it seems assumptions have to be made (note: I assume that the teams in 2013 exist on four separate tiers: (i) Indiana ("IN"), Minnesota ("MN"), Michigan ("UM"); (ii) OSU, MSU, Wisconsin ("WI"); (iii) Illinois ("IL"), Purdue ("PU"), Iowa ("IA"); and (iv) Northwestern ("NW"), Nebraska ("NU"), PSU).  I struggled with assuming that Illinois did not belong on tier 2, however getting itself blown out at Wisconsin did not help the Illini cause.  Wisconsin is not on tier 1, because it has at least one too many losses outside of the conference.

One analysis scored (using numbers) the difficulty of the games (in light of each of their venues) by ranking the teams using four tiers equally separated.  The following is a representation of the scoring and the resulting list of teams with the most difficult schedules:

8             @IN, @MI, @MN (9)

8              IN, MI, MN (7)

6              @WI, @MSU, @OSU (7)

6              WI, MSU, OSU (5)

4              @PU, @IL, @IA (5)

4              PU, IL, IA (3)

2              @NW, @NU, @PSU (3)

2              NW, NU, PSU (1)

Difficulty of Schedule:

1. MSU
2. Indiana
3. OSU
4. Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois
5. Wisconsin, Nebraska, Purdue, Northwestern
6. Iowa
7. Penn St.

The second analysis scored (using numbers) the difficulty of the games (in light of each of their venues) by ranking the teams using four tiers also, but they were not equally separated. The following is a representation of the scoring and the resulting list of teams with the most difficult schedules:

7              @IN, @MI, @MN (8)

7              IN, MI, MN (6)

6              @WI, @MSU, @OSU (7)

6              WI, MSU, OSU (5)

4              @PU, @IL, @IA (5)

4              PU, IL, IA (3)

2           @NW, @NU, @PSU (3)

2              NW, NU, PSU (1)

 Difficulty of Schedule:

1. MSU
2. Indiana
3. Michigan, Minnesota, OSU, Illinois
4. Wisconsin, Nebraska
5. Purdue, Northwestern
6. Iowa
7. Penn St.

Finally, I provide the B1G teams ranked (as they are today in the B1G standing) with the play-once games for each team also listed, so that you can do your own analysis at your convenience and leisure. 

#5 Indiana(IN)  3-0/15-1

has no rematch for games: WI, @NW, @IL, NU

Wisconsin(WI)  3-0/12-4

has no rematch for games: @IN, UM, @NW, PU

#2 Michigan(UM)  3-1/16-1

has no rematch for games: IA, NU, @MN, @WI

#8 Minnesota(MN)  3-1/15-2

has no rematch for games: UM, @WI, PSU, @PU

#22 Michigan State(MSU)  3-1/14-3

has no rematch for games: @IA, @PSU, IL, NW

#15 Ohio State  (OH)  3-1/13-3

has no rematch for games: @PU, IA, @PSU, MN      

Purdue(PU)  2-2/8-8

has no rematch for games: OSU, @NU, @WI, MN

#12 Illinois(IL)  1-3/14-4

has no rematch for games: @MSU, IN, PSU, @IA

Iowa  (IA)  1-3/12-5

has no rematch for games: @UM, MSU, @OSU, @PSU

Northwestern  (NW)  1-3/10-7

has no rematch for games: IN, @NU, WI, @MSU

Nebraska  (NU)  0-4/9-8

has no rematch for games: @UM, PU, NW, @IN

Penn State (PSU)  0-4/8-8

has no rematch for games: MSU, OSU, @IL, @MN

The next 6-8 weeks will be a crazy ride, but I like Michigan's chances even if it has much work to do.

#GoBlue, #HAIL, #Wolverines, #TheTeamTheTeamTheTeam, #2012defendingB1Gchampions #WantMoreSuccess

Now that I've stopped grinding my teeth (and cursing up a storm) in frustration during the entire game against Ohio University, and now that I've accepted the loss to that solid team (led by an outstanding performance by DJ Cooper); I realize that despite the upset tonight, Michigan was a great team in 2011 -- 2012.  Looking on as a dedicated basketball fan, I believe Michigan overachieved when it captured a share of the Big Ten championship for the season.  In retrospect, it looks like that overachievement also led to the team losing some of its hunger--some of its edge.

Now, I'm not suggesting the team didn't prepare enough for the post-season tournaments.  I just think the mentality of the team changed the moment it won a share of the title.  Before that moment, Michigan (like the previous season and even like the season Beilein first took Michigan to the NCAA tournament) was out to prove people (the naysayers and doubters) wrong.  It often acted like its back was to the wall.  That mentality is how it beat MSU and Ohio at home and also went on the road and won at Illinois and at PSU.  Winning the big ten title, however, validated Michigan's great season, and Michigan never seemed like it could thereafter adjust its mental approach (from that of an underdog to that of a champion) to play well going forward.

You may remember that the team came out flat against Minnesota.  Michigan still won because the gap between Michigan and the Gophers is apparent.  I think the gap is less apparent against Ohio University and inapplicable relative to Ohio.  Michigan was hungry when it won out after losing to Purdue; and, if it had that same edge tonight, I think we would have advanced to Sunday.  Instead, Michigan now has the off-season to learn how to play as a favorite, as a front runner. 

And who knows? Perhaps Beilein also isn't used to being the favorite.  It's possible. Ultimately though, I have  no doubt that Michigan will perform better in the tournaments next year.

Despite the disappointment of tonight's game, I gotta give it up for the seniors and the rest of the team.  The team was undersized the entire season and still earned a championship in the best conference.  Would advancing to the second weekend--the sweet 16--been a notable improvement over last season's finish?  Yes, without question. 

Was winning a big ten title this season a notable improvement over last season's 9-9 finish in the conference? Yes, without question.  Would I trade the championship for a sweet 16 finish?  No, without question;  absolutely not.  Next year, I want the championship and the sweet 16 (at least!). 

So, anyway, thanks, Michigan, for a great season.  For basketball, I see a bright future with a team hungrier in 2012 -- 2013 than it was when it finished 2012 -- 2013.  As Denard once said: "This program's been starving for a while.  It's time for us to make something happen.  We've been starving. It's time for us to eat."

GO BLUE. 

(EDIT update: UM 66 NW 64 final; OT) Michigan looks to continue its success defending home court.  A win tonight would move Michigan into a tie with Illinois for second place in the conference.  Of course no game is guaranteed for the favored team (e.g. OSU losing again last night).  Game starts at 630 EST.  Current standings:

Morris is going into his junior year of high school.  Has interest from big ten programs, but Michigan is one of the first to offer him.

http://www.detnews.com/article/20110707/OPINION03/107070423/1004/SPORTS/Flint-Beecher’s-Monte-Morris-earns-U-M-offer--might-wait-for-others 

"(Michigan) actually showed a lot of interest in (Monte)," said Morris' mother Tanya. "He loved the way the team came together in the tournament. He loves the way Coach Beilein handled the team. They are very high on his list. Very high." "They're at the number one spot right now," Morris added. "It's the support they've shown me — showing me how serious they are recruiting me. I like their campus and their offense — how they spread the court and how they like the point guards to have the ball for at least six seconds. I just feel like their style of play will fit mine."

I've recently been seeing criticism on mgoblog of Coach B's offense generally and of Darius Moriss specifically.  In consideration of this criticism, I've taken data from the most recent game to give a glimpse into the inadequacy of this criticism. 

Here's a link to umhoops.com and its "5 Key Plays" in the win against sparty at the Breslin Center (first win since 1997).  4 of the key plays show Michigan winning the battle with one of them showing the opposite.  Play 1: Novak's 4 point play early in the game; Play 2: C. Christian beats the shot clock for 2 pts.; Play 3: Draymond Green scores 3 pt. play in transition for sparty; Play 4: Novak for a long 3 pt. shot; Play 5 (2 plays actually): Stu Douglas hits 2 pt. shot late in the game and Douglass hits 3 pt. shot even later in the game.  Here it is for viewing (note Stapleton's statement): 

"Please let us know in the comments if you think we missed one. It seems weird that Darius isn’t explicitly featured in any of these."

http://www.umhoops.com/2011/01/29/five-key-plays-michigan-at-michigan-st...

I can think of one commenter in this mgoblog community who feels it necessary to criticize DMo w/o any real support for that criticism--something about ball-hogging or not passing or not being a team player.  I can think of many users who criticize the offense/defense Coach B uses or the talent he recruits.  My responses:

1) Of the four--really five since Stu gets two plays in his one video clip--plays resulting in Michigan's favor, DMo assists on the play or does more.  Play 1:  DMo draws a double team and makes a skip (no look which freezes the defense) pass to Novak in corner who's open b/c his man dropped down to help on the open post guy b/c of the double team on DMo; Play 2: DMo drives--and draws an extra defender sufficiently away from Christian --and assists on the made shot by Christian; Play 4: DMo gets the rebound (offensive rebound!) off someone else's shot and then assists on a 3 pt. shot to Novak; Play 5: DMo assists on Stu's 2pt shot (admittedly Stu created that shot, but DMo still had to recognize Stu's comfort at that place on the floor in that situation to make the pass) and DMo draws a second defender again to hit Stu for the open 3 pt. look to clinch the game.

Yes, DMo also made the turnover in Play 3 that led to Green's score and 1.  But that only leads me to my next point (made ad naseum by many against the trolls and ignorant critics of the bball team): YOUTH.  DMo is a sophomore starting full-time for the first time.  He will make mistakes, but he does--at least on this night in front of an Izzone and meatheads wearing numbers crying insecurity--make more positive plays than negative ones.  He will--if he hasn't already--have struggles with ego/maturity and a learning curve. 

What about the five freshman who rotate in regularly with 3 of them starting?

2) Coach Beilein has a young but talented team.  As a group, the team will play down to competition (hopefully not Iowa today, but I wouldn't be surprised).  But we've seen it play up to competition all season long too. The latter is not a given with just any team full of two juniors and the rest underclassmen.  Coach B should get praise for this part, for which he seemingly does not.   With maturity (and patience from us), Coach Beilein will show the fruits of his progress.  And please remember this tidbit from the detnews today:

In 2009, his second season at U-M, Beilein guided the Wolverines to a 21-14 record and back into the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 11 seasons, with a first-round win over Clemson. Michigan's 11-win turnaround tied a school record for the largest single-season turnaround.