this week in unintentionally grim-sounding recruiting headlines
I just saw KenPom was doing an AMA(like a Q&A) earlier. Was pretty internesting to look through.
/u/LOLmodel on Reddit compiled a list of how teams with top 30 offenses and sub-100 defenses have performed in the tournament (using Kenpom's adjO and adjD numbers). This year, Michigan enters the tournament with the 3rd best offense and 104th best defense.
The results were not incredibly encouraging, but I found it a highly interesting examination. Click the image below to open a full-sized (i.e. legible) version in a new window.
Sorry I couldn't fit more words in the title...
The reverse (top 30 adjD and sub-100 adjO is also available here).
Mr. Pomeroy has been busy crunching the numbers for each conference tournament, calculating percentages for each team's chances for success.
Below is the chart for the BTT based off of Ken's ratings and Bill James' log5 formula (I am not familiar with this formula but assume it is complicated).
Michigan is the favorite as you can see, though a potential quarterfinals matchup with Indiana has them slightly less favored to make the semis than Wisconsin, who most likely will be facing Minnesota.
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Michigan 100 72.6 45.1 25.4 2 Wisconsin 100 73.7 40.4 22.1 5 Ohio St. 82.2 55.2 28.9 15.1 3 Michigan St. 100 55.9 29.3 15.0 6 Iowa 86.2 42.3 21.8 10.9 4 Nebraska 100 39.4 14.1 5.0 8 Indiana 57.8 17.4 7.3 2.6 7 Minnesota 58.9 17.1 5.7 1.9 9 Illinois 42.2 10.1 3.5 1.0 10 Penn St. 41.1 9.2 2.4 0.6 12 Purdue 17.8 5.5 1.1 0.2 11 Northwestern 13.8 1.8 0.3 0.05
The summary of the tournament focuses mostly on MSU (yes, injuries are mentioned), however it mostly paints their chances now that they're "healthy" in a negative light.
Finally, a quick rundown of today's games:
Illinois vs. Indiana, 12pm (BTN) -- IU -2.0
Purdue vs. Ohio State, ~2:25pm (BTN) -- OSU -8.5
Penn State vs. Minnesota, 6:30pm (ESPN2) -- Minn -4.5
Northwestern vs. Iowa, ~ 8:55pm (ESPN2) -- Iowa -12.5
OK, so that happened. The great thing about the Big Ten standings is that they don't take 19-point first-half deficits into account. :-) Unsurprisingly, the performance in West Lafayette reduced KenPom's probabilities of Michigan victory in each of the next three games; combined with an Illinois victory over Nebraska, the remaining schedule looks a couple of percentage points harder than it did a few days ago.
Having said that, GRIII's layup turned a 74% (pregame) probability of victory into 100%, which more than makes up for the slightly smaller future percentages. Here's an updated chart of Michigan's expected final record, again to two signficant figures:
Staee hasn't played; their chart is nearly unchanged:
Wisky, now alone in third place:
|11-7 or worse||13%|
Ohio, still up half a game on Iowa:
|11-7 or worse||67%|
|11-7 or worse||79%|
(Nebraska, unsuprisingly, has been eliminated from title contention).
Combining the various scenarios, we get the following chance of winning the title with the given record (i.e., the rows add up to 100% and represent the probability of each outcome if Michigan achieves the record listed).
|Record||Outright Title||Shared Title||No Title|
Multiplying by the data in the first table -- the chance that Michigan achieves each of these records -- gives us an 83% chance of an outright title (up from 75% on Sunday) and a 15% chance of a shared title, for a whopping 98% chance of hanging a Big Ten championship banner for 2014.
With the victory over the Boilermakers, Michigan has also locked up a first-round bye in the Big Ten tournament. (I'll spare you the details, but suffice it to say that even if they lose out, Michigan's worst possible finish is a tie for fourth, and the winning record against the top teams in the B1G standings would pay dividends in any tiebreaker).
Clinching/eliminatation scenarios for the remainder of the week and weekend:
- Michigan cannot clinch the outright title this weekend. However, Michigan can clinch a share of the title with a win and a loss by Staee.
- Iowa plays @Indiana and vs. Purdue and is eliminated with any loss or Michigan victory.
- Ohio plays @PSU and @Indiana and is eliminated with any loss or Michigan victory.
- Wisconsin plays @PSU. A loss or Michigan victory means that they can do no better than a share of the title; a loss and a Michigan victory would eliminate them entirely.
- Staee plays at home against Illinois; if they lose and Michigan wins, they can do no better than a share of the title.
As always, Go Blue!
(Edit: corrected a typo - "play dividends" -> "pay dividends")
(Apologies if this belongs elsewhere, but I haven't seen this analysis done yet).
At 11-3, with a half-game lead on Staee and four games remaining, Michigan is obviously in the driver's seat for the B1G basketball title. Using the game predictions from KenPom's site, I've done a quick probability analysis to see what the odds are that there's a banner to be hung.
First, Michigan's expected record, along with a percent chance:
(I used two significant figures, since there were two in the KenPom data; obviously, they won't add to exactly 100%).
Here's Staee's expected record:
|10-8 or worse||12%|
|10-8 or worse||2.4%|
|10-8 or worse||23%|
|10-8 or worse||68%|
Put it all together, and you get the following possibilities (all chances here are conditional -- e.g., each line should add up to 100% within the limits of rounding and significant figures):
|Record||Outright Title||Shared Title||No Title|
|11-7||< 0.01%||0.20%||> 99%|
When you factor in the chances that Michigan achieves each of these records (from the first table), and add it all up, and there is a 75% chance of an outright title, a 19% chance of a shared title, and a 6% chance of being bannerless. (Coincidentally, I coded up a simulation using the same KenPom percentages, ran it 100 times, and got at least a share of the title exactly 94 times).
Long story short, even with a single loss, the odds are still in our favor to win the title outright, since KenPom doesn't think Staee is likely to run the table, and 2-2 down the stretch is likely to be enough to secure a share of the title. Like many of you, I never would have predicted this in December.
Because I was bored during lunch, I wanted to see how John Beilein's teams had improved over his tenure at Michigan by looking at the final KenPom and Sagarin numbers. I made 2 quick and dirty graphs that show the teams yearly final rank and rating. I thought the team rank would probably be the best way to compare across years because it is more standardized as the formula for the rating may have slight tweaks that impact the final value of the rating between years.
Amazingly, Michigan's teams under Beilein showed a progressive improvement each year with the outlier of one year, 2009 or 2010. You could make a case that Michigan overachieved ahead of schedule in 2009 or underachieved in 2010. I also thought it was pretty interesting that Michigan has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation under Beilein. Some of this has to do with the Big Ten Conference, but even within the Big Ten, Michigan's SOS are some of the best. Michigan has pretty much had a top 15 SOS every year under Beilein.
EDIT: Can't figure out how to successfully cut and paste the graphs.
The raw numbers:
|Year||KenPom Rank||KenPom Rating||Sagarin Syn Rank||Sagarin Syn Rating||Sagarin Predict Rank||KenPom SOS||Sagarin SOS|