Hoke was top notch at this aspect of his job.
hope this doesn't suck
A few weeks ago there was a post that talked about the myth of SEC speed, and the larger issue of player quality among the different US regions. I don't know that I agreed with the article linked in that post, but it did bring up some interesting points. When I reviewed the Rivals250 watch list for 2012 , I had this in mind and began analyzing player location. Of course I didn't come up with anything other than very crude conclusions re. that particular issue, but I did find the exercise more generally informative about recruiting as a whole. I'll present it here, with the understanding that many similar analyses have likely been completed in the past, and those much better in findings and scope.
First up - where do they come from? Well, that's Texas, Florida, and California, and you knew that. The top 15 states in terms of the most R250 players:
- TX, FL, CA, GA, and LA together hold nearly half of the preliminary 250, with 124 athletes
- The Top 15 states, which you'll notice includes MI, hold 82% of the R250
- There are 34 states represented by the R250, and 19 of them have 5 or fewer players
- 16 states are not represented at all. Many of those are smaller states or Alaska, but some surprises: Kansas, West Virginia, Connecticut, and our new B1G member Nebraska have no players in the R250
- Iowa, Oregon, and Wisconsin each have 1 player
- Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Indiana (home of ND, Purdue, and IU) have 2 players
- New York also has only 2 players - it's hardly the empire state for football, despite having an enormous population. There are probably answers to those player quality questions here, which likely involve player development and the popularity of football in the area. But this is just speculation.
In terms of which conference the players belong to, I made some crude assumptions: players play at home, and states are split according to popular custom. Re. the latter, the example would be MI and OH are 100% B1G states, but PA is 2/3 B1G and 1/3 BEAST (for Penn State and Pitt respectively). FLA is 2/3 ACC and 1/3 SEC, to recognize MYTM, FSU, and UF. Yes it's simplistic. It's also hard to do it any other way.
|*B1G = 15% of total|
So yes the SEC RULZ. They get there by taking 1/3 of FLA (11 players), and all of GA (15), LA (10), and AL (8). The PAC10 comes in second by virture of CA, AZ, and WA. ACC is third? That's what 2/3 of FLA, plus MD (and their 4 OLGC players) and NC will get you. B1G is fourth, more in a bit. B12 is fifth, made up almost entirely of 2/3 of TX (the other 1/3 went to OTHER), plus 3 kids from MO and 2 from OK. The B12 is Texas in every way it can be anything. BEAST is hopeless, but that's a pretty good abbreviation eh?
The B1G is made up of OH, PA, IL, and MI. Michigan isn't in a terrible position, but with B1G regions making up just 15% of the total, needs to be in FL, TX, and CA to be a national power. ND has nothing in IN and does just fine.
What about the position breadowns?
Not sure how this compares to previous years, but the good news is that there are 39 OL and 36 WRs - two positions of need next year. DEs are also very deep - OH has six alone (and that doesn't include Pharaoh Brown or Odenigbo). But also very few DTs or TEs. MI has only one of either, and unfortunately O'Brien looks to be vexed by the orange sun and questionable head coaching strategies of UT. OH has neither a DT nor TE, and only one each of LB, OL, and DB. We'd like to keep all of the MI guys who represent, yo:
|Kelby Latta||OL||Battle Creek, MIHarper Creek|
|Danny O'Brien||DT||Flint, MIPowers Catholic|
|Royce Jenkins-Stone||LB||Detroit, MICass Tech|
|James Ross||LB||Orchard Lake, MISt. Mary's|
|Efe Scott-Emuakpor||WR||East Lansing, MIEast Lansing|
|Terry Richardson||DB||Detroit, MICass Tech|
|*128 <200s (51%)|
- 86% of the R250 are 6'0" or taller - marry a big girl
- 51% of the R250 are in the 200s or lighter, surprisingly - it's OK to marry a thin girl
- Want a 300+ pounder? There are only 17 in the country right now (though they may grow over the year): 11 OL and 6 DTs - not enough of you are marrying big enough girls
No grand conclusions, but some interesting info. I haz spreadsheet, so questions are welcome. The data at Rivals is easy to copy and paste into Excel. I'll probably update this when it changes from watch list to the actual R250. Go Blue and that is all