future of the program
Here's a form of questions that developed in my mind over the last few days reading the board.
The format isn't perfect, but it's all I can do on Turkey Day.
For the 1st few questions, please note:
- The divisions change to an E-W grouping beginning next year: M, OSU, PSU, MSU, Maryland, Rutgers in the east.
- The 2014 CFB playoff begins next year: top 4 teams selected by committee, two semifinals played in bowl games, and a national championship game played in a different city each year. AFAIK, a conference title is NOT required.
For the last several questions:
- By accountability, I mean: how much blame and/or credit to you assign for each of the 2011-2015 seasons (as a %)?
- For a given year, please try to have your total add up to 100%.
Thanks in advance. I typically welcome constructive criticism, but please be advised in advance that:
- I know it's not a scientific poll and I am not a psychometrician nor do I play one on TV
- I'm probably not going to make any changes (typos or otherwise) b/c I don't have the time nor inclination to do so.
- The board has been very toxic recently- I'm just asking for your input. If this generates discussion fine, but if you don't have something constructive to say, don't bother.
Thanks for your time and have a Happy Thanksgiving!
Edit: At a response count of 230, I played with some of the data: that's the .XLSX file (2nd link above). The graphs show histograms of each accountability in each of the 5 years 2011-2015: % of total responders VS accountability as a decimal. Basically, if the peaks are leftward, the coach was not held accountable. Peaks on the right indicate high accountability.
Most of the accountability (as you look from 2011-15) is what you'd expect, but the interesting thing (IMO) is how the RR & Transition (labelled as O, for other) accountabilities are fairly static from 2011 to 2012 and even for 2013 a bit. Clearly, after 2013 it's all on Hoke. Apparently people hold the previous coach consistently accountable for 2 years, then in year 3 an "accountability transition" takes place and by year 4 & beyond the overwhelming majoriety of people don't credit/blame the previous coach.
AFA the division, B10 title and playoff expectations: you can always look at the pie charts on the google response form - just submit a blank response and click 'view previous responses." Peolpe expect M to contend for the division every year or most years, win the division every other year (or most years!), win the B10 every 3-4 years and enter the playoff system every 4-5 years. Expectations are actually below what I expected, b/c thinking about this in the abstract is MUCH less emotional- since we haven't experienced the missed opportunities 1st hand, we seem to have more reasonable expectations. IMO, if M wins the B10 every 3-4 years that's a reasonable expectation, but I don't think most people will be all that pleased with that as an OUTCOME. Also, I kind of doubt we reach that title rate with OSU in the division, MSU performing well and PSU not bottoming out quite as much as expected.
People at this point are not confident that BH will reach their expectation levels: about 50% of people were basicailly 50-50 (maybes), UNLESS a change in offense is made. Again, you can see the Google results for this as well.
There are now 300 responses in the raw google forms spreadsheet- that's the 1st link. Feel free to create more eye-friendly charts and view the data as you wish. Thanks for the responses!
In an effort to stay out of the "RichRod sucks/Harbaugh is God" or "Harbaugh is a hack traitor/RichRod will win 20 MNCs" camps, I decided to refocus my attention on a possibly relevant topic: given the completed 2010 season, what should our expectations for 2011 be? More specifically, is there hope in recent Michigan history?
I began by comparing Michigan's results from 2010 with those from another recent 7-5 year, the 2005 Year of Infinite Pain (little did we know), a season that was widely heralded as Michigan's "once per score years down-year."
|Win #1||NIU, 33-17||UConn, 30-10|
|Win #2||EMU, 55-0||ND, 28-24|
|Win #3||MSU, 34-31||UMass, 42-37|
|Win #4||PSU, 27-25||BG, 65-21|
|Win #5||Iowa, 23-20||Indiana, 42-35|
|Win #6||Northwestern, 33-17||Illinois, 67-65|
|Win #7||Indiana, 41-14||Purdue, 27-16|
|Loss #1||ND, 10-17||MSU, 17-34|
|Loss #2||Wisconsin, 20-23||Iowa, 28-38|
|Loss #3||Minnesota, 20-23||PSU, 31-41|
|Loss #4||OSU, 21-25||Wisconsin, 28-48|
|Loss #5||Nebraska, 21-25||OSU, 7-37|
While at first glance I want to be able to look at this and say "we followed that 2005 season with a 2006 season led by a beast of a defense and a powerful offense, and came within a late-hit penalty of playing for the national championship," I can't see a similar turn-around for 2011. Outside of the records, these teams were night-and-day.
It's true that the 2011 team will be bringing back more guys than we did in 2006, but that's where the comparison ends. The 2005 team didn't lose a game by more than seven points, and lost their five games by a combined 21 points while outscoring their opponents in their wins by 122. The 2010 team suffered each loss by at least ten points and lost the five by a combined 87 points, while only outscoring their opponents by 83 in the wins. For those of you keeping track at home, that's a +101 scoring differential versus a -4.
So if we can't learn from 2005, what does progress really look like year-on-year from 2009?
|Win #1||WMU, 31-7||UConn, 30-10|
|Win #2||ND, 38-34||ND, 28-24|
|Win #3||EMU, 45-17||UMass, 42-37|
|Win #4||Delaware St., 63-6||BG, 65-21|
|Win #5||Indiana, 36-33||Indiana, 42-35|
|Loss/Win||Illinois, 13-38||Illinois, 67-65|
|Loss/Win||Purdue, 36-38||Purdue, 27-16|
|Loss #3/1||MSU, 20-26||MSU, 17-34|
|Loss #4/2||Iowa, 28-30||Iowa, 28-38|
|Loss #5/3||PSU, 10-35||PSU, 31-41|
|Loss #6/4||Wisconsin, 24-45||Wisconsin, 28-48|
|Loss #7/5||Ohio State, 10-21||OSU, 7-37|
Other than UConn being a marginally tougher opponent than WMU, we ran the table against ND and some cupcakes in the non-conference schedule. In both years we beat Indiana close and lost to Wisconsin by about 20.
In the positive column, we turned a 25 point Illinois loss into a 2 point win, and turned a 2 point Purdue loss into an 11 point win. We closed the gap with PSU from 25 points to 10 points.
On the negative, however, our three conference losses against the better Big Ten teams got much worse. Instead of losing in OT to MSU, we lost by 17. Instead of losing by 2 to Iowa, we lost by 10. Instead of an 11 point loss to OSU with five Tate Forcier turnovers, we lost by 30 in a game wherein OSU ran the ball on the final 16 plays and didn't attempt a pass in the 4th quarter (mimicking Wisconsin's performance the week before).
A sad stat for those arguing that 2010 was a strong step forward - the 2009 team was actually a +24 in scoring differential, which is four touchdowns favorable to the 2010 team that supposedly took a big step forward. If David Brandon keeps Rich Rodriguez on for a fourth year I'm rooting hard for him to succeed and for us to compete for a championship, but it appears he'll be doing it without the benefit of recent trends or history.