I know we've heard speculation that Derrick Green may wind up transferring after getting burried on the depth chart and even more so now after the verbal committment of Karreem Walker.  It's stil unclear if that will happen, but this is just another peice of information regarding the once highly touted running back.  Here's the link:

 

http://michigan.247sports.com/Bolt/Green-Doesnt-Travel-For-Citrus-Bowl-4...

OK - so I know there have been a number of posts on RB performance and who the best RB is (mods - I think this is a new take, but feel free to remove if its redundant).  

I did a little more digging into the RB performance last year to see if I could quantify who performed better.  I came up with the following charts, which I think definitively shows Drake was our best running back by far.  (click to make bigger).  

Chart 1 - Big Ten Opponents only

This is based on approximately 32 attempts by Green, 56 by Johnson and 82 by Smith (Note: see data disclaimer below).

How do I read this chart?

Basically, the chart tells you what % of each RB's rushing attempts went for more than X yards.  The x axis is "X yards", the y-axis is the % of attempts.  Being higher on the chart is better.  Data is limited to Green, Smith and Johnson.

E.g.  25% of Green's rushining attempts went 7 yards or more; 34% of Johnson's did the same and only 20% of Smiths.  Likewise, 18% of Johnson's carries went 10 yards or more. 

Note: Read "15+" as "16 or more yards" (its a little nuance I oversaw when creating the charts)

How did you create this chart?

I basically copied and pasted the play by plays from ESPN for every game into a spreadsheet, then ran some conditional formulas and pivot tables  to identify:

1. Was a UM running back in the play?

2. If so, was it a rushing attempt?

3. If so, what was the result in yards.

4. Filter, summarize, etc

Data disclaimer: The underlying data may not be 100% correct, there may be minor discrepancies, but based on the digging and testing I've done, the impact to the results is limited.  I'd put the confident interval at >95% on the results.

What should I to take away from the chart?

Basically, Drake Johnson was the most efficient back by some margin.  71% of his carries went for 3 or more yards, compared to 44% for Green and 51% for Smith.  The talk of him not being a Power 5 RB seems like nonsense to me, based on the data.

I made also made up a metric I called the explosion/implosion index, calculated as follows: % of carries 10 or more yards divided by % of carries for 0 or less yards.  Johnson kills the other two here...

Explosion/implosion index results

• Johnson: 2.0
• Green: 0.57
• Smith: 0.43

What if you include all games?  What if you exclude Indiana?

The answer is it gets closer, but doesn't change the story substantially.  

If all games are included, Drake still sits higher at all point on the curve if all games are included.

If all games except Indiana are included, Drake sits higher at all but 5 points (9-12 yards), where all the running backs are within 1-2 percent of each other.

Chart 2  - all games excl.  Indiana

If all games except App State, Miami (OH), and Indiana are included (Chart 3), Drake is higher at all points, except 15+ yard (5% of Drakes carries when 15+ yards, 7% of Green's did). 

Chart 3  - all games excl. App State, Miami (OH) and Indiana

 

" A nine-win season should be within reach. Of course, Michigan could always limp to another disappointing finish, but if a few things break right and the Wolverines wind up playing on New Year’s Day, it won’t only be because the new head coach is the Messiah. It will be because this team has underachieved for a while, and it has the pieces it needs to do well right away."

 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-college-football-preview-michigan...

 

 

"Time is a Flat Football" is a series of posts which will explore players from Michigan football history members of the 2015 team resembles the most. Tackled in these posts will be the offensive "skill" position groups: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, and Receivers/Tight Ends. My apologies go out to the offensive line, but it's very difficult to get o-line statistics, and more difficult to compare the groups. I used Python and Pandas almost exclusively for this quick trip to the past. Any "predictions" can be described as unscientific, but kind of fun.

 

Disclaimer: Obviously caveats do apply here. These are namely the effects of other position groups, coaching, and style of offense on the players being analyzed. Also, the past probably has no bearing on what current players will do, unless you believe Rust Cohle. I plan to deal with these issues by completely ignoring them. It's the off season, people.

 

Michigan has an interesting mix of running backs this year. Junior backs Derrick Green and De'Veon Smith were highly rated coming out of high school, but neither have locked up the feature back role at this point. Drake Johnson is heading into his senior year after a promising junior season which unfortunately ended after a knee injury. Newly eligible Ty Isaac will be a RS sophomore after taking a year off following his transfer from USC. It's a crowded but talented backfield, and at this point, not much separates them. Let's take a look at their stats, gathered from sports-reference.com. Here are their stats throughout the years they have been active.  

 

Yr	Cls	Player	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Rush Avg	Rush Td	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec Avg	Rec Td	Plays Tot	Yds Tot	Avg Tot	TD Tot
2013	1	Derrick Green	83	270	3.3	2	0	0	0	0	83	270	3.3	2
2013	1	De'Veon Smith	26	117	4.5	0	0	0	0	0	26	117	4.5	0
2013	1	Ty Isaac	40	236	5.9	2	4	57	14.3	0	44	293	6.7	2
2014	2	De'Veon Smith	108	519	4.8	6	3	26	8.7	0	111	545	4.9	6
2014	2	Derrick Green	82	471	5.7	3	2	26	13.0	0	84	497	5.9	3
2014	3	Drake Johnson	60	361	6.0	4	1	11	11.0	0	61	372	6.1	4

 

We can also look at the totals for each player:  

 

Yr	Cls	Player	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Rush Avg	Rush Td	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec Avg	Rec Td	Plays Tot	Yds Tot	Avg Tot	TD Tot
2014	2	Derrick Green	165	741	4.5	5	0	0	0	0	167	767	4.6	5
2014	2	De'Veon Smith	134	636	4.65	6	0	0	0	0	137	662	4.7	6
2014	3	Drake Johnson	60	361	6	4	1	11	11	0	61	372	6.1	4
2013	1	Ty Isaac	40	236	5.9	2	4	57	14.3	0	44	293	6.7	2

 

  Green and Johnson were each having promising seasons last year before going down with injuries. De'Veon Smith put up a relatively good season, especially considering he spent most of the year splitting carries with Green and Johnson. Isaac's freshman year at USC was good for a freshman back who was not the featured guy. Let's find some comparisons to past Michigan running backs from past years.  

 

Derrick Green

Derrick Green

Yr	Cls	Player	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Rush Avg	Rush Td	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec Avg	Rec Td	Plays Tot	Yds Tot	Avg Tot	TD Tot
1984	2	Bob Perryman	76	393	5.2	5	2	15	7.5	1	78	408	5.2	6
1991	1	Tyrone Wheatley	86	548	6.4	9	10	90	9.0	0	96	638	6.6	9
2000	1	Chris Perry	77	417	5.4	5	0	0	0	0	77	417	5.4	5
2007	2	Carlos Brown	75	382	5.1	4	0	0	0	0	75	382	5.1	4
2014	2	Derrick Green	82	471	5.7	3	2	26	13.0	0	84	497	5.9	3

 

Derrick Green's sophomore campaign ended after just 6 games, so his stats ended up looking like players coming off the bench. As you can see in the chart above, Green is in good company. Freshmen Tyrone Wheatley and Chris Perry are very similar to sophomore Green. No one on the list is a prolific pass catcher, which makes comparisons easier. Arguably the best metric to judge running backs by is Rush Avg, AKA yards/carry. Let's see who's similar here, and throw in TDs just to compare.

 

 

Green's 5.7 Yds/Carry looks very similar to freshman Chris Perry's 5.4 average. Freshman Tyrone Wheatley's 6.4 Yds/Carry represents the top of the comparisons, and he was much more of a TD vulture than Green has been. Carlos Brown's sophomore campaign looks somewhat similar as well. Let's see how these running backs fared in their next year.  

 

Yr	Cls	Player	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Rush Avg	Rush Td	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec Avg	Rec Td	Plays Tot	Yds Tot	Avg Tot	TD Tot
1985.0	3.0	Bob Perryman	-11.00	-154.0	-1.5	-5	5	61	3.4	-1	-6.00	-93.00	-0.80	-6.0
1992.0	2.0	Tyrone Wheatley	99.00	809.0	0.9	4	3	55	2.2	3	102.00	864.00	1.00	7.0
2001.0	2.0	Chris Perry	35.00	39.0	-1.3	-3	0	0	0	0	41.00	85.00	-1.10	-3.0
2008.0	3.0	Carlos Brown	-46.00	-260.0	-0.9	-4	0	0	0	0	-40.00	-237.00	-1.00	-4.0
	2.5	Mean	19.25	108.5	-0.7	-2	4	58	2.8	1	24.25	154.75	-0.48	-1.5

 

Every running back outside of Tyrone Wheatley saw a decrease in their Yds/Carry. The average running back saw an increased workload of about 20 carries, good for an extra 100 yds. Coach Wheatley is really skewing the numbers here. He took the leap from "damn, that guy's good for a freshman" to "damn, that guy's good". This is the type of jump we are hoping for with Green.  

If I had to make one prediction based on this data, I'd say that Green's Yds/Carry will go down this year. Should he win the feature back role, I have no doubt that he'll be relatively consistent. However, the progression for the comparable backs above shows that if you're not Tyrone Wheatley (and most people aren't) you'll come back to earth.  

Bottom Line: Derrick Green should have a season similar to Sophomore Chris Perry (2001).  

	Yr	Rk	Player	Cls	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Rush Avg	Rush Td	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec Avg	Rec Td
	2001	2	Chris Perry	2	112	456	4.1	2	6	46	7.7	0

 

The 2001 team won 8 games and lost 4. Chris Perry split carries that year with B.J. Askew, who had a good season as well. At this point it's tough to see much separation between all four candidates for the feature back role. Barring a surprise breakout, this should translate to a running back by committee simply for the sake of fresh legs.  

De'Veon Smith

De'Veon Smith, thanks to Maizeandbluenews.com

 

De'Veon Smith is another applicant for the feature back position. In the wake of losing Green to a broken clavicle, Smith saw the most carries on the 2014 team. However, Drake Johnson started stealing carries towards the end of the year before he too went down with an injury. Let's see to whom Smith is most comparable.  

 

Yr	Cls	Player	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Rush Avg	Rush Td	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec Avg	Rec Td	Plays Tot	Yds Tot	Avg Tot	TD Tot
1984	1	Jamie Morris	118	573	4.9	2	14	131	9.4	0	132	704	5.3	2
1993	2	Ed Davis	93	441	4.7	2	11	89	8.1	0	104	530	5.1	2
1997	1	Anthony Thomas	130	529	4.1	5	21	205	9.8	0	151	734	4.9	5
2001	2	Chris Perry	112	456	4.1	2	6	46	7.7	0	118	502	4.3	2
2008	1	Sam McGuffie	118	486	4.1	3	19	175	9.2	1	137	661	4.8	4
2014	2	De'Veon Smith	108	519	4.8	6	3	26	8.7	0	111	545	4.9	6

 

The comparison which leaps out is Smith's sophomore season to Jamie Morris' freshman season. Attempts and Rush Avg are very similar. Morris was more involved in the passing game than Smith, but their Rec Avgs are similar (Smith's sample size is miniscule, though). Let's explore the similarities graphically because we can!

In addition to Jamie Morris, De'Veon Smith looks a lot like sophomore Ed Davis with more TDs. De'Veon Smith, much like Green, is in good company with the other players included in the comparisons. Chris Perry and Anthony Thomas were eventually drafted in the 1st and 2nd rounds, and Sam McGuffie jumped over multiple guys (a habit he has yet to break). McGuffie left after one year, but let's see how the rest of the guys progressed.  

 

Yr	Cls	Player	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Rush Avg	Rush Td	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec Avg	Rec Td	Plays Tot	Yds Tot	Avg Tot	TD Tot
1985	2.0	Jamie Morris	79.0	457.0	0.30	1.0	19.00	85.00	-2.90	1.00	98.0	542.0	0.10	2.0
1994	3.0	Ed Davis	-13.0	-102.0	-0.50	1.0	-2.00	-53.00	-4.10	0.00	-15.0	-155.0	-0.90	1.0
1998	2.0	Anthony Thomas	16.0	232.0	1.10	7.0	-6.00	-65.00	-0.50	0.00	10.0	167.0	0.70	7.0
2002	3.0	Chris Perry	155.0	654.0	0.10	12.0	8.00	110.00	3.40	0.00	163.0	764.0	0.20	12.0
	2.4	Mean	59.25	310.25	0.25	5.75	4.75	19.25	-1.03	0.25	64.00	329.50	0.03	5.5

 

Most of these players took a major leap forwards in multiple stats. It seems as though once a player has reached a De'Veon Smith level of contribution, the next year they are expected to take on a more significant role in the offense. The average running back got about 60 more carries, 310 more yards, and gained 0.25 more yards/carry. The players most similar to Smith (Morris and Davis) represent opposite trajectories. Morris became the feature back and would keep that role until he graduated. Ed Davis continued to split carries until he graduated.

 

Bottom Line: If he wins the feature back role, De'Veon Smith could have a season similar to Sophomore Jamie Morris (1985).

 

Yr	Cls	Player	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Rush Avg	Rush Td	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec Avg	Rec Td	Plays Tot	Yds Tot	Avg Tot	TD Tot
1985	2	Jamie Morris	197	1030	5.2	3	33	216	6.5	1	230	1246	5.4	4

  Morris had a great season by all accounts. Most impressive was his 5.2 yards/carry and the first of three straight 1,000 yd seasons. The 1985 team went 10-1-1 and finished ranked #2 in the country, with Morris being a large part of the offense. Past Wolverines show Smith to be the running back in the most prime position to break out.

Drake Johnson

Drake Johnson, courtesy of CBS

Drake Johnson came on strong last season before going down with a knee injury. By all accounts he's been putting in the work to be ready for this season, and with his vision he is definitely in the hunt for the feature back role. Let's see who Johnson's 2014 season was reminiscent of.  

 

Yr	Cls	Player	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Rush Avg	Rush Td	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec Avg	Rec Td	Plays Tot	Yds Tot	Avg Tot	TD Tot
1977	2	Roosevelt Smith	57	308	5.4	4	5	46	9.2	0	62	354	5.7	4
1989	3	Allen Jefferson	65	380	5.8	3	3	27	9.0	1	68	407	6.0	4
1992	1	Ed Davis	61	374	6.1	3	3	11	3.7	0	64	385	6.0	3
2007	2	Carlos Brown	75	382	5.1	4	0	0	0	0	75	382	5.1	4
2009	1	Vincent Smith	48	276	5.8	1	10	82	8.2	2	58	358	6.2	3
2010	3	Michael Shaw	75	402	5.4	9	10	75	7.5	0	85	477	5.6	9
2011	3	Vincent Smith	50	298	6.0	2	11	149	13.5	2	61	447	7.3	4
2014	3	Drake Johnson	60	361	6.0	4	1	11	11.0	0	61	372	6.1	4

 

Drake Johnson's profile is similar to just about every change of pace back Michigan has had in recent years, minus the screens. Ed Davis pops up again, and Vincent Smith appears twice. Perennial change of pace backs Carlos Brown and Michael Shaw also appear. The most apt comparison seems to be Ed Davis' freshman campaign, followed by Vincent Smith's junior year. You know the drill: let's look at the progress they made from the comparison season to the next.  

 

Yr	Cls	Player	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Rush Avg	Rush Td	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec Avg	Rec Td	Plays Tot	Yds Tot	Avg Tot	TD Tot
1978.00	3.00	Roosevelt Smith	41.00	102.00	-1.20	-1.00	4	69.00	3.60	3.00	45.00	171.00	-0.80	2.00
1990.00	4.00	Allen Jefferson	-13.00	-111.00	-0.60	3.00	-1	-5.00	2.00	-1.00	-14.00	-116.00	-0.60	2.00
1993.00	2.00	Ed Davis	32.00	67.00	-1.40	-1.00	8	78.00	4.40	0.00	40.00	145.00	-0.90	-1.00
2008.00	3.00	Carlos Brown	-46.00	-260.00	-0.90	-4.00	0	0	0	0	-40.00	-237.00	-1.00	-4.00
2010.00	2.00	Vincent Smith	88.00	325.00	-1.40	4.00	5	48.00	0.50	0.00	93.00	373.00	-1.40	4.00
2011.00	4.00	Michael Shaw	-44.00	-203.00	1.00	-6.00	-9	-63.00	4.50	0.00	-53.00	-266.00	1.00	-6.00
2012.00	4.00	Vincent Smith	-12.00	-204.00	-3.50	0.00	-1	-75.00	-6.10	-1.00	-13.00	-279.00	-3.80	-1.00
	3.14	Mean	6.57	-40.57	-1.14	-0.71	1	8.67	1.48	0.17	8.29	-29.86	-1.07	-0.57

 

The basic gist of this table is that many of these backs have reached their ceiling, and might actually take a step back year-to-year in Rush Avg. While the mean Rush Att and Rush Yd changes are +6.57 and -40.57, respectively, the running backs themselves seem to fall into two categories. The first category includes freshman to sophomore Vincent Smith, freshman to sophomore Ed Davis, and sophomore to junior Roosevelt Smith. Each of these backs saw a significant increase in their carries and a decent uptick in yards. The second group saw just as significant a decrease in usage between years.  

The question of which of these groups Drake Johnson will fall into is difficult to answer. Perhaps the most relevant distinction between these two categories is Class. Most upperclassmen with Drake Johnson level production the previous year saw a decrease in touches the following year. All seniors experienced this decrease, as did junior Carlos Brown, although his decrease was entirely injury related. Only junior Roosevelt Smith did not see lower numbers. The two underclassmen, Ed Davis and young Vincent Smith saw increased usage.  

Bottom line Given that he's going into his ***RS Junior year, I'm most inclined to say Drake Johnson's final year will mirror that of Senior Michael Shaw (2011).  ***Thanks for the correction.

Yr	Cls	Player	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Rush Avg	Rush Td	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec Avg	Rec Td	Plays Tot	Yds Tot	Avg Tot	TD Tot
2011	4	Michael Shaw	31	199	6.4	3	1	12	12	0	32	211	6.6	3

 

The 2011 went 11-2 and won the Sugar Bowl. Shaw saw a small share of the rushing load with Denard, Fitz Toussaint, and junior Vincent Smith getting more carries. Carries were difficult to come by for Shaw behind these backs, a problem which will also be faced by Johnson.  

Ty Isaac

Ty Isaac, expertly photo shopped by someone here at MGoBlog

 

Ty Isaac is the outside challenger this year. After a decent freshman season with USC, Isaac transferred to Michigan, finally completing the Justin Fargas trade. Isaac's 2013 freshman season was similar to a few familiar names.  

 

Yr	Cls	Player	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Rush Avg	Rush Td	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec Avg	Rec Td	Plays Tot	Yds Tot	Avg Tot	TD Tot
2006	1	Brandon Minor	42	238	5.7	2	1	9	9.0	0	43	247	5.7	2
2008	1	Michael Shaw	42	215	5.1	0	6	32	5.3	1	48	247	5.1	1
2009	1	Vincent Smith	48	276	5.8	1	10	82	8.2	2	58	358	6.2	3
2013	1	Ty Isaac	40	236	5.9	2	4	57	14.3	0	44	293	6.7	2

 

If you've made it this far, you're acquainted with two of these names already. Freshmen Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith were similar to Isaac in most stats. Brandon Minor's first year was similar to Isaac's in many ways as well. Let's see how the sophomores stack up.  

 

Yr	Cls	Player	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Rush Avg	Rush Td	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec Avg	Rec Td	Plays Tot	Yds Tot	Avg Tot	TD Tot
2007.00	2	Brandon Minor	48.00	147.00	-1.40	-1.00	2	-8.00	-8.70	0.00	50.00	139.00	-1.50	-1.00
2009.00	2	Michael Shaw	0.00	-30.00	-0.70	2.00	-4	-27.00	-2.80	-1.00	-4.00	-57.00	-0.80	1.00
2010.00	2	Vincent Smith	88.00	325.00	-1.40	4.00	5	48.00	0.50	0.00	93.00	373.00	-1.40	4.00
	2	Mean	45.33	147.33	-1.17	1.67	1	4.33	-3.67	-0.33	46.33	151.67	-1.23	1.33

 

Minor and Smith saw upticks in usage and yards, but all three regressed a little in Yds/Carry. I really do not believe that Isaac will be like one of these guys, simply because I'm pretty convinced he'll get at least a third of the carries.

Bottom Line: No idea. Ty Isaac is a bit of an unknown at this point. Just over 40 touches on a different team is not much to go on. Isaac's his build suggests he'll be more Minor than Smith, but his pass catching ability seems closer to the latter than the former.  

What Does It All Mean?

  I'm not sure that Michigan has a running back on the roster who is ready to be "the guy". Derrick Green and De'Veon Smith have each shown flashes of being able to handle the entire load, and Johnson looked good in limited action last year. Isaac had a promising freshman season at USC, but it's difficult to know just what he is. A look at the Yds/Carry shows reveals strong numbers for each back.

These numbers are even more impressive when plotted against every Michigan running back with greater than 20 carries since 1975. The x-axis is the Class (1-freshman, 2-sophomore, etc) and the y is Yds/Carry.

The dotted line represents the absolute average Yds/Carry, and all four backs are well above the line. Those with fewer carries are well above the line, but even De'Veon Smith's >100 carry season last year put him above average. It looks like Michigan has at least four solid backs, meaning that at the very least we will have a strong committee. At best we might have the next Chris Perry or Jamie Morris. Just who that might be is impossible to answer at this point.  

In my most recent diary, I claimed that the offfensive line was not terrible. I'm still seeing people claim that they are, so I thought I'd check some statistics. I prefer quantitative analysis over qualitative conjecture. The first thing I checked was individual rushing yards per carry.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/player/_/stat/rushing/sor...

There are 124 teams in I-A. De'Veon Smith is 50th in I-A with 6.0 yards per attempt. Derrick Green checks in at #71 with 5.7 yards per attempt. So that "terrible" offensive line has allowed not one, but two running backs to be in the top 75. That's not great, but it's not terrible either. I'd say it's about average.

The other criticism you see is something like this, "of course we gained yards, we were playing Rutgers." So let's look at our opponents.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/rushing/posit...

Utah is 14th in yards per attempt, and ND is 17th. Those are two pretty good defenses. Minnesota is 45th and Rutgers is 63. Those are two pretty average defenses. And last but least, Miami (OH) is 96 and Appy State is 119. Those are two pretty bad defenses.

So in conclusion, the running game has been average against average defenses.

We are 2-4 because of turnover margin and some head-scratching coaching decisions. I think 5-7 or 6-6 are still real possibilities. Which is not what I expected coming into the season, but the offensive line is not the reason why we are underperforming expectations.

So far so good.

http://mgovideo.com/michigan-vs-appalachian-state-offense-every-snap/