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NCAA Softball Super-Regional
Thursday-Friday, May 21-22
ESPN, ESPN2 & ESPNU
The NCAA super-regional is a best-of-three series. There will be one game Thursday and one Friday, with a third game following a half-hour after the second if needed.
Thursday, May 21
Game 1 -- #3 Michigan vs. #14 Georgia (ESPN2)
Friday, May 22
Game 2 -- #3 Michigan vs. #14 Georgia (ESPNU)
Game 3 (if necessary) -- #3 Michigan vs. #14 Georgia (ESPN)
Last year in Tempe, the regional was an emotional thrill-ride. Shoot-outs, come-backs, and one of the greatest games in Michigan softball history combined to put the Wolverines past Arizona State. Cardiologists throughout Southeast Michigan were probably happy to see this year’s affair cause the Maize & Blue spectators a great deal less anxiety. Apart from a spot of indigestion when Cal briefly took a 1-0 lead on Saturday, there was not much to raise heart rates or drive up blood pressure as the big Blue machine cruised to their regional coronation.
As the top seed in the region, Michigan drew the Oakland Golden Grizzlies in the opener, a middling team that snagged an auto-bid out of a lower-tier conference. Michigan was not as sharp as they could have been in their first playoff appearance, which Carol Hutchins attributed to the nervous energy of the first game of the playoffs. Even so, Michigan breezed by a badly out-matched Oakland team. The Grizzlies played into Michigan’s hands, handing out 6 walks, committing 2 errors, and plunking a pair of Wolverine batters. As she has done so often, Sierra Romero led the way on offense, going 2-3 with 2 RBIs as Michigan secured a 9-1 mercy-rule win.
Michigan had to shake off the jitters that slowed them down in game 1 quickly, as a tested California team came knocking on the door on Saturday. As mentioned, Cal took an early lead with a home run in the top of the 2nd. The first time through the line-up, Michigan continually made contact against Cal starter Stephanie Trzcinski, but couldn’t get much going beyond a manufactured run in the 2nd to level the score. Once they’d had a look at her, though, Michigan’s deadly line-up zeroed in and showed no mercy. Romero gave Michigan the lead on a deep solo-blast in the third, and in the 4th the rest of the team blew the doors down. Falk, Lawrence, and Christner each launched long-balls, and Cal was down 7-1 before they came back to the plate. Cal would continue to threaten throughout the day, but Betsa worked out of several jams with a little help from her friends. Abby Ramirez highlighted the defensive performance with a dynamite diving grab to rob a base hit. A two-run double in the 6th from senior catcher Lauren Sweet allowed Michigan to walk off early for the second day in a row, also by a 9-1 margin.
On Sunday, Michigan unexpectedly faced the Pittsburgh Panthers, who used a grand slam and some good freshman pitching to oust the Bears in the Saturday late game. As the away team on the scoreboard, Michigan batted first, and by the time they were done, the game was almost out of reach. Sierra Lawrence sprinkled the cheese from the lead-off spot, reaching 2nd base on a hard-hit ball down the right-field line. She would come in to score after two illegal-pitch calls. Pitt’s hurler hit Romero and walked Christner before giving up a 3-run blast to Susalla. Clearly flustered, she left the game without retiring a single Michigan batter. Aidan Falk added another run, and it was 5-0 by the time Pitt picked up their bats. It briefly looked as though Michigan might grab yet another mercy-rule win when the lead swelled to 8 runs in the 3rd, but Pitt got 3 back in the bottom of the same inning. Neither starter Wagner nor reliever Betsa had her best stuff today, as on-and-off drizzles, fatigue, and perhaps just a little complacency with the big lead kept them off-balance. They did what they needed to do, however, and the offense removed any doubt with a pair of insurance runs in the 5th inning. Alumni Field rose as one to cheer on Betsa as she gunned down the final Pitt hitter in the 7th, and Michigan could celebrate a 10-3 win and a regional championship.
The stats throughout the weekend were impressive to say the least for the Maize & Blue. Michigan went 3-0, outscoring their opponents 28-5 along the way and posting a combined 1.84 ERA with a 26-5 K to BB ratio. 5 home runs on the weekend pushed Michigan’s season total to a staggering 112, now well past the 2005 team’s program record in that category. Junior wonder-worker Sierra Romero showed the full range of her abilities, going 5-9 at the plate, showing power with a home-run and blazing speed with a triple and a cheeky bunt-single against a backed-off infield. Freshman Aidan Falk made a big impression as well – as Hutch says, at this point in the year, they’re not freshmen anymore! She hit .600 on the weekend, grabbing 3 hits against both Cal and Pitt.
After Sunday’s game, Carol Hutchins told her team what she always does after a regional win – that they are one of only 16 teams in the country that gets to have practice on Tuesday. For a coach that wants nothing more than a chance to help her players get better, that is reason enough to be excited. One of those other 15 teams will be thinking along the same lines, however, and is headed for Ann Arbor with no intentions of bowing out early. Now it’s time for us to look ahead to our opponents in the next round, the Georgia Bulldogs out of the ESS-EEE-SEE!
Georgia tore through a thoroughly mediocre non-conference schedule, littered with the Elons and Winthrops of the world. The Mary Nutter Collegiate Challenge was their only real foray into serious opposition prior to conference play. There Georgia notched a shiny win over Oklahoma, but suffered losses to Texas and Notre Dame – tourney teams, but ones a real contender should be able to handle. The Bulldogs added a few more non-conference games in the midst of their conference slate, and did not fare so well in those match-ups, dropping a wild 15-9 affair to UNC and taking a surprise 4-3 loss against USC Upstate.
Within the SEC, Georgia’s season went largely according to plan, with few major upsets in either direction. A home win against Alabama and a road sweep of Kentucky mark the most impressive achievements of the Dogs on the season thus far. With the rise of the conference as a whole, however, simply navigating the schedule without excessive humiliation now buys a team not only a ticket to the big dance, but the right to host a regional as well.
Once in the regional, things got dicey for Georgia. Fans that came to Athens on Saturday got to watch MUCH more than they paid to see. Western Kentucky went 14 innings with Georgia, eventually winning a 2-1 pitchers’ duel on the arm of Miranda Kramer, who struck out 19, allowing only 5 hits and 1 run over the equivalent of two back-to-back games. After that, Georgia was pushed to the very edge of elimination, salvaging a 2-run deficit in the 5th inning against UNC before walking off in the 7th. Sunday went by more easily, as Kramer was unable to recapture the magic of her earlier performance, and Georgia cruised to back-to-back double-digit mercy-rule wins. They escaped ignominy and earned the right to travel north to Ann Arbor where, according to their football coach, they will surely freeze to death.
Digging into the stats, we see a Georgia team with a respectable defense and an elite offense. Chelsea Wilkinson is clearly the work-horse for Georgia in the circle, having hurled over 100 more innings than back-up Brittany Gray, and leading the team in ERA, strike-outs, and a number of other categories. She is a strike-out merchant, averaging a little over one per inning – not Betsa-level, but quite good. The one real knock on her is that she is significantly more inclined to give up the long-ball compared to her partner, ceding over 5 times more on the season. While this may be attributable to having faced better opposition, Georgia may want to consider giving Gray an opportunity if the home runs start piling up.
Meanwhile, at the plate, Georgia stands squarely among the nation’s elite. The Dogs .346 team batting average is actually a hair ahead of Michigan’s .344 number, and is tied for 10th nation-wide. While Michigan more than makes up the difference with a better on-base and more home runs, there is no doubt that the Bulldogs can plate runs when they need to. At the end of the day, what matters on offense is scoring runs, and Georgia is again tied for 10th in the country at 7.31 per game (Michigan, meanwhile, is in 2nd at 8.30).
The star of the line-up is Alex Hugo without a doubt. She hits over .400, gets on base over half the time she steps to the plate, and leads the team with an impressive 21 homers. Limiting her opportunities to get multiple RBIs will be essential for Michigan’s defense. That won’t be easy to do, however, as almost every major contributor on Georgia hits over .330. Sisters Cortni and Sydni Emanuel are both over .400 on the year (there are two other girls in the Emanuel family, Brittni and Whitni, which … ok). For one of the first times this season, Betsa and Wagner will really get a sense of what other pitchers feel like going up against our line-up – there simply are no easy outs available.
The one weakness in this buzz-saw of an attack is a dearth of true power hitters. Apart from Hugo, only one other hitter has double-digit homers on the year (Anna Swafford, a strike-out prone .342 slugger). After her, only one more player has more than 5 long balls. This team is almost certainly going to get hits, but as long as we can scatter them and get the timely K or double-play, we just might escape without too much damage. If they get on a roll and the hitting becomes contagious, however, the wheels can come off in a hurry, as WKU’s Miranda Kramer found out on Sunday.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Like last week, I’ll peg a couple Michigan names for newer fans to keep an eye on. It would be a little too easy to just name superstar Sierra Romero and ace pitcher Megan Betsa every time, so this week, let’s put the spotlight on a couple players who have been coming on strong of late – Lindsey Montemarano and Aidan Falk. In addition to starting the team’s pizza obsession, Montemarano has been a spark plug in the line-up in recent weeks after having to fight for her spot earlier in the season. She has become a highly disciplined hitter, using her diminutive stature (and accompanying smaller strike-zone) to draw more than her fair share of walks. Aidan Falk starred in the “regional review” above, and deservedly so. She has been dialed in of late, and is beginning to show more and more of the power she used to set state records in New York in her high school days. Carol Hutchins has often spoken about the importance of hitting through the line-up, 1-9 rather than just 1-4. Keep an eye on this pair as we look to continue that trend.
As much as I hate to do it, even a superstitious fan like myself has to make some predictions at the end of a write-up. Looking at Georgia’s numbers, it’s impossible for me to believe that we will hold them down all weekend. At some point they’ll string things together, somewhere along the line, Michigan’s defense will be stretched to the limit. All the same, when you stack things up, and as much as I hate to jinx anything with over-confidence, I just can’t see them beating us out. We hit just as well as they do for average, better for on-base, and vastly better for power. Their ace is very good; our back-up has better numbers than her and our ace is among the nation’s best. I see Georgia getting hot and winning a game, but Michigan will pull through in the end and return to Oklahoma City for the Women’s College World Series next week.
[Ed-S: written at our request.]
Big Ten Champions
|WHAT||NCAA Softball Regional|
|WHERE||Wilpon Complex/Alumni Field|
|WHEN||Friday-Sunday, May 15-17|
|TV||ESPN2 & ESPNU|
The NCAA regional is a double-elimination tournament, so the only team Michigan is guaranteed to play is Oakland; if all goes chalk, Michigan would play Cal in Game 3 and go from there.
|Friday, May 15|
|3:30 p.m.||Game 1 -- #2 seed California vs. #3 seed Pittsburgh (ESPNU)|
|6:30 p.m.||Game 2 -- #1 seed Michigan vs. #4 seed Oakland (ESPNU)|
|Saturday, May 16|
|4 p.m.||Game 3 -- Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner (ESPN2)|
|6:30 p.m.||Game 4 -- Game 1 loser vs. Game 2 loser (ESPN2)|
|9 p.m.||Game 5 -- Game 3 loser vs. Game 4 winner (ESPNU)|
|Sunday, May 17|
|3:30 p.m.||Game 6 -- Game 3 winner vs. Game 5 winner (ESPNU)|
|6 p.m.||Game 7 -- Game 6 winner vs. Game 6 loser (if necessary) (ESPNU)|
Big Ten Review
For the first time since 2005, Michigan softball swept the Big Ten championships, taking home the regular season crown after a tightly contested race with Minnesota and the tournament crown after downing PSU, Northwestern, and Nebraska in dominant fashion.
The Wolverines came into Big Ten play slightly chastened by a home loss to Kent State and their brilliant pitcher, but nevertheless riding a brilliant non-conference performance. MGoSoftball has already ably reviewed that portion of the season (http://mgoblog.com/diaries/softball-mid-season-report).
After exacting revenge against KSU and pounding Bowling Green, the Wolverines charged into Big Ten play with a three game set at Ohio State, racking up double-digit wins in all three games. Two games into the Iowa series, things were looking on track for continued success. Halfway through the final game of the series, though, the Wolverines defense collapsed, blowing a 4-run lead and handing the lowly Hawkeyes an unlikely upset at Alumni Field. There wasn't much time to recover, either, as Michigan had to travel up to Minneosta for a 3-game set against the nationally-ranked Golden Gophers, headlined by star pitcher Sara Groenewegen. After a 9-1 run rule drubbing and a blown 3-run lead early in the second game, it looked like Michigan's magical season was unravelling all too quickly.
Fortunately, something clicked in those Maize & Blue minds after that bad 2nd inning in Minnesota, and the Wolverines bounced back. They tied the game in the 3rd, and went on to win 9-4, following up that performance with an Easter Sunday run-rule blowout, returning the 9-1 favor that Minnesota had handed out that Friday.
From that point on, Michigan has not looked back. Since the loss to Minnesota, Michigan has won 20 straight games, including 13 via the run-rule and 2 no-hitters from sophomore stand-out Megan Betsa.
The end of the Big Ten season found the Wolverines in possession of an array of awards, headlined by Megan Betsa as the conference pitcher of the year and Carol Hutchins as the coach of the year. Multiple Wolverines found their way onto the 1st, 2nd, and defensive teams. Sierra Romero won the tournament MVP award and also the inaugural ESPNW national player of the year award as well (she is a finalist for the more prestigious player of the year award, which will be announced later). The brilliance of the team's performance earned Michigan the #3 overall seed in the NCAA tournament and the right to host a regional and, if they win through, a super-regional as well.
Three teams will be coming to Ann Arbor this weekend with their eyes on a trip to the super-regionals. We'll look at Oakland, the #4 seed in the region, first, since they're our Friday opponent, then at #2 seed California and #3 seed Pittsburgh after that.
[After the jump.]
As expected, when the Big Ten softball awards were released, Michigan was once again prominently featured. Megan Betsa was a unanimous selection for pitcher of the year and Carol Hutchins was coach of the year for the 15th(!) time. Betsa, Christner, Romero, and Wagner all made it onto the All-Conference 1st team, Lawrence, Ramirez, and Sweet came in on the 2nd team, and Wagner, Christner, and Lawrence also appeared on the All-Defensive team. Becca Garfinkel was honored with one of the sportsmanship awards.
In an interesting turn, for the first time in her Michigan career, Sierra Romero actually did not win Big Ten Player of the year, and honor that went to Minnesota's brilliant sophomore pitcher Sara Groenewegen. This comes as Romero's numbers dipped somewhat during conference play as opposed to the non-conference season, probably largely due to her arm injury. Hopefully she'll be able to tough it out through the playoffs & get it plenty of rest over the summer.
Carol Hutchins appeared on the Inside Michigan Sports Radio Show recently and made some public statements regardings the injury situations on the team that some of us have been concerned about. Senior pitcher Sara Driesenga has been out since the Alabama series with what Hutchins described as a "naggy minor injury", but she said she was hoping to get her back in the next "week or so". Lauren Sweet, meanwhile, suffered a sprained ankle againt Kent State. She is back on her feet, though, and is expected back "shortly". Any issues with other players Hutch wrote off as just "bumps and bruises, aches and pains" - standard things that come up in any season.
It's a relief to hear the good news on both fronts, especially for Lauren Sweet. Sweet has been having a fantastic senior season, and went down on a nasty-looking slide into home. I was afraid it was a knee injury or something long-term like that looking at the video, so it's good to hear it's not something that huge, and that she's on the mend. For us to go deep in the tournament, having her & Driesenga back at full speed will be big.
Michigan Softball 2015 Season Preview
Michigan fans have taken it on the chin for the last few months without a doubt. While Harbaugh has brought hope for the future and the hockey and basketball teams have shown great resilience, there can be no doubt that 2014-15 has been a down year for the Maize and Blue on the whole. In times like these, we turn to the reliable things in life, those few things we know we can count on to pick us up. In Ann Arbor for the last three decades, one of those reliable touchstones has been the softball program under the masterful guidance of head coach Carol Hutchins. With a staggering 1,372 wins in her coaching career, Hutchins is not only a Michigan legend, she is a legend among softball fans everywhere. If anyone can give us all the lift we, it’s Carol Hutchins and her team.
Below we’ll take a look at this year’s edition of Michigan softball. We’ll review some of last year’s events and the seniors who have moved on. With the help of MGoSoftball, we’ll preview some of the new faces, and then we’ll turn to the outlook in the three phases of the game – offense, pitching, and fielding. Finally, we’ll examine the schedule and map out the expectations. Just one more week to go before the Wolverines trot out onto the diamond once again!
When last season’s tournament run came to an end at Florida State, Michigan bid farewell to a brilliant senior class. The outgoing seniors were responsible for 193 wins, 4 Big Ten championships, 3 trips to the NCAA super-regionals, and 1 to Oklahoma City for the Women’s College World Series. Four members of the class of ’14 saw significant playing time and production last season. Outfielders Lindsay Doyle and Nicole Sappingfield served as table-setting slap hitters, each getting on base in around 40% of their at bats. First baseman Caitlin Blanchard served as protection for Sierra Romero, punishing teams again and again for the free passes that were repeatedly issued to the star shortstop. Finally, Taylor Hasselbach was the pleasant surprised of the season, coming on strong in her senior year after seeing only limited playing time earlier in her career. Hasselbach hit .320 in her final campaign with 9 home runs, including one in the thrilling 7th inning at the end of the regional. The other seniors served primarily in supporting roles as pinch-hitters and pinch runners. Replacing the production of last year’s seniors, especially at the top of the order, will be a tall order for the 2015 edition of Michigan softball.
As a program that expects to compete for championships every single season, Michigan softball recruits and plays top-quality freshmen every year. MGoSoftball has again furnished us with some great profiles of some of the new recruits, so I’m just going to point you in that direction for those where I see one. For others, I’ll link their MGoBlue.com profile.
Aidan Falk (1B/OF) – http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/hello-aidan-falk-sb
Amanda Vargas (IF) – http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/hello-amanda-vargas-sb
Morgan Swift (C) – http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/w-softbl/mtt/morgan_swift_928031.html
Taylor Swearingen (1B/3B) – http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/hello-taylor-swearingen-sb
Tera Blanco (RHP/1B) – http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/hello-tera-blanco-sb
MGoBlue.com also has a fluffy profile of three of the freshmen: http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/w-softbl/spec-rel/012915aaa.html
Carol Hutchins will be looking at Falk and Blanco in particular to add some punch to Michigan’s batting line-up. Falk has spent her last few years busily destroying New York high school softball, hitting over .500 and setting the New York state home-run record. Blanco, for her part, comes highly-recommended from the state of California, always a major center of softball recruiting. Rated as the number 1 pitcher in the state for this year’s class, she also hit .420, with a .550 on-base percentage against tough California pitching. Even if she isn’t able to crack into Michigan’s strong pitching rotation, she has the opportunity to contribute in a big way, with a number of openings in the line-up.
In the Circle
Michigan’s pitching staff had an up-and-down season in 2014, with all three pitchers showing great promise, but none delivering a truly elite season. Nevertheless, the Wolverines managed to finish 19th in the nation in team ERA with a 2.07 mark on the season.
2015 will mark the final go-round for senior LHP Haylie Wagner and RHP Sara Driesenga. Both have been the ace of the staff at different points in their careers, but both have struggled at times as well. Wagner in particular has been hampered by injuries. If both play at the top of their game, however, they have the potential to be among the best pitching staffs in the nation. Both came to Michigan as highly-touted recruits; 2015 will be their final opportunity to leave the kind of lasting mark the came to Ann Arbor to make.
Wagner was Michigan’s best pitcher last year, and, having earned a spot of the pre-season Player of the Year watch-list, figures to be the ace of the staff again in 2015. She led the team in ERA at 1.82, posting an impressive 24-5 record. When push came to shove, Hutch turned to Wagner in pressure situations, and despite some mid-season struggles, she came through in a number of key post-season situations. If Michigan is going to make a deep run again, Wagner will need to be a critical component.
Sara Driesenga, the Wolverines’ second senior, struggled in 2014 after a very strong 2013 season. Her ERA dipped from 1.89 to 2.34, and her 31-9 record in 2013 turned into a disappointing 5-6 mark in 2014. She still has all the physical tools to play the position at a high level, however, and has shown great talent in the past. Even so, with Betsa and Blanco pushing from behind, Driesenga will need to show more in 2015 than she did last year if she wants to maintain her spot in the rotation. Carol Hutchins’ long history of getting players to deliver their best performances in their senior seasons makes it too soon to write Driesenga off, though, and the Hudsonville hurler may well have a few tricks left up her sleeve.
Sophomore Megan Betsa rounds out Michigan’s returning pitching staff, coming off a solid freshman season. Betsa went 18-4 with a 2.15 ERA. She faced some typical freshman struggles, but played brilliantly on many occasions, highlighted by a no-no in a 10-0 run-rule victory over Detroit. Betsa provides a change of pace in terms of style as well. While Wagner and to some extent Driesenga are more of ground-ball pitchers, Betsa is a strike-out artist pure and simple. Despite pitching 42.1 innings fewer than Wagner, Betsa led the team in strike-outs with 150 (to Wagner’s 122).
If Wagner and Driesenga both play to their potential and Betsa shows even standard incremental improvement, Michigan’s pitching staff will be a powerful battery. The fact that the top pitcher out of California will be joining the team as well gives the Maize and Blue a level of luxury that few teams can match in the circle.
At the Plate
As much as we all love good defense and pitching (and as often as Hutch has reminded interviewers that softball comes down to those two factors), Michigan has been known for offense in recent years, and justly so. The Wolverines had one of the top ten scoring offenses in the nation in 2014 at 6.56 runs per game. Even though Michigan will need to replace a substantial portion of their hitting line-up, there is a great deal of talent, both new and experienced, and Alumni Field should play host to a strong offense once again.
In the category of talent, no player on the team – and few in the nation – can match rising junior Sierra Romero. Romero burst onto the scene in 2013 by setting the Michigan single-season home-run record, leading the team with a .379 batting average, bringing home the Big Ten Freshman of the Year and Player of the Year awards, and finishing the top ten for the NCAA Player of the Year award. Even a repeat performance would have delighted fans of the Maize & Blue, but Romero had no intentions of settling for stagnation. Instead, she managed not to improve, but do so substantially in her sophomore year. While her home-run total dipped from 23 to 18 (still the team leader and tied for 16th nationally), her batting average sky-rocketing to .491, and was over .500 for most of the season until a stomach bug slowed her down in the regional. Even more impressively, she led the nation with a staggering .633 on-base percentage, a full .052 better than the second-place finisher, demonstrating her tremendous patience as team after team pitched around her (Romo was the most-walked player in the nation last season). Her sparkling season led to a top-three finish in the National Player of the Year voting and a second Big Ten Player of the Year award. If the fall series against Kentucky (a WCWS team last year) was any indication, though, Romero is still improving – she went 6-8 with 4 home runs and two doubles against the Wildcats. Great news for Michigan fans, these numbers surely have opposing pitching shaking in their cleats.
While the story of Michigan’s offense starts with Romero, it certainly does not end there. Most significant among returning players will be Michigan’s other Sierra (and third member, with Wagner and Romero, of the Player of the Year watch-list), Sierra Lawrence. Lawrence, or SiLo for short, hit .351 last year, and was second only to Romero on the team in on-base with a very strong .460 mark. She also brings some power, having jacked 9 HR last season, including two in Michigan’s come-from-behind win to clinch the regional over Arizona State. It will be interesting to see where Lawrence ends up in the line-up. Hutch could easily put her in the one or two spot to set the table for Romero with her great OBP, but her power and reliability might keep her in the heart of the order, perhaps replacing Blanchard as Romero’s protection. Wherever she ends up, she’ll have to be a key piece of the puzzle.
After the two Sierras, the question marks become a little bigger in terms of where the offense will come from. Among major contributors last year, all the other .300+ hitters have graduated. Two names stand out as potential risers, however, who could step up into bigger roles. Senior Lauren Sweet could be a candidate to have a break-out season in her last go-round, reminiscent of Taylor Hasselbach in 2014. Sweet has hit in the .200s for much of her career, but has had stretches of elite play, most notably the back half of the 2013 campaign. The other candidate is junior Kelsey Susalla, who played well in limited action a year ago. Early on last year, she looked to be getting some serious playing time, but Hasselbach’s emergence relegated Susalla to a supporting role. Both of these players were named in this space last season, so I hope I’m not just trying to justify my earlier predictions. It seems likely, though, that at least one of these two will step up in a serious way.
After that, Michigan may need to rely on a youth movement to generate offense. Rising sophomores Abby Ramirez and Lindsay Montemarano both saw a good deal of action in 2014, serving at the bottom of the order for the most part. They both struggled at times, but with another full year under Hutch’s tutelage, the potential is always there for a leap forward. Last but not least, some of the freshmen noted above will certainly be thrust into starting roles. This has paid big dividends for Michigan more than once in recent years, and will need to do so again in 2015.
All told, repeating the blistering pace of the offense over the last few years will be difficult while replacing so much of the line-up. The talent is there, however, and Hutch will always get the most out of what she has. We may not see quite as many double-digit games & run-rule blowouts, but the offense should be able to provide the pitching staff with all the run support they need.
In the Field
As I’ve noted before, this section of the preview takes me further from my expertise, and further from easily available statistics. However, at least a little must be said about this key part of the game.
Last season, I called for Michigan to raise their fielding percentage (thoroughly mediocre in 2013) into the top third or quarter of the nation if they wanted to have a successful season. The women did far more than that, ending 2014 in the top ten nationally with a .976 mark. This elite defensive production was a key factor in backing up a pitching staff that, as mentioned, struggled at various moments. Only two players on the team had more than 4 errors in 2014, those being freshman infielder Lindsay Montemarano and Sierra Romero. Romero’s 14 errors last year are still too many, but they do represent a substantial improvement over her freshman season, so there is reason to hope for more improvement this year. Additionally, she makes up for many of those errors with athletic defensive plays to pick up outs that most other players would never come close to. Michigan will have to sustain this high level of defensive play to achieve their goals in 2015. This seems like a reasonable possibility, especially if Romero continues her improvement. I can’t go so far as to predict that Michigan will be a top-ten outfit again, but I’d be surprised to see a major drop-off. If there is one, it may be due to the need to break in a new outfield following the departures of Doyle and Sappingfield, who patrolled the open areas of the field effectively for several years.
With an overall picture of the team in place, we can start looking ahead to the schedule, and then wrap up with some Bold Predictions about what will happen as the season plays out. As always, Michigan starts with an arduous non-conference cross-country tour. The Wolverines open the season with a bang, taking on #1/#1 defending national champion Florida on February 7th. Michigan opened against Florida last year and lost in heartbreaking fashion, blowing a 4 run lead in the 7th before losing in extras. The Florida game will come as part of the first of 5 tournaments/invitationals/classics that Michigan will take part in, comprising 25 games in 4 different states (Florida, Alabama, Arizona, and California). While there are always a few easier games mixed in – if Michigan struggles with Binghampton, we may be in for a long season – the usual bevy of powerful opponents lies in wait. In addition to the match-up with top-ranked Florida, Michigan will have a pair of showdowns with #5/#5 Florida State (who sent Michigan packing in the super-regional last year), and #3/#4 Alabama, three clashes with #16/#16 Arizona State (whom Michigan ousted in thrilling fashion in Tempe a year ago), a rematch with the Gators at the always-challenging Judi Garman Classic, and a tussle with #10/#11 Baylor, also at Judi Garman. Especially given the heavy travel requirements for Michigan, our women will likely be underdogs in many of these matches, but Hutch always manages to pull out a number of big wins no matter what. These games are key for Michigan’s tournament résumé, and provide vital opportunities to get experience playing against the nation’s best. Only the most mentally strong players come to Michigan to run this gauntlet (Southern and Southwestern teams scarcely leave their home stadium until the start of conference play), and they grow together through the experience every year.
The annual odyssey comes to an end on March 14th, when Michigan will finally get to play in front of the home fans at Alumni Field. A three-game set against Kent State and a one-off against Bowling Green a few days later will provide some final tune-ups before conference play gets underway. Once again, Michigan’s journey through the Big Ten should be a lighter burden than the non-conference trek, although last year should serve as a reminder to take nothing for granted. Key losses to over-matched opponents cost the Maize & Blue the outright Big Ten Championship and the right to host a regional. Michigan opens Big Ten play in Columbus, against an OSU team that was thoroughly mediocre a year ago, followed by a home set against an Iowa team that struggled mightily. Next up will be the defining series of the Big Ten season for Michigan, as the team travels to Minnesota to take on the #15/#15 Golden Gophers. Minnesota gave Michigan a real fight last year at Alumni Field and ripped the tournament title from our hands as well. While Sara Moulton is no longer around to terrorize batters, sophomore righty Sara Groenewegen was last year’s Big Ten Freshman of the Year and can do plenty of damage herself. Taking a couple games from the Gophers on their field would go a long way towards sealing the Big Ten title. After that, Michigan will close out the regular season with a tour of the bottom of the Big Ten barrel. Road trips to newcomers Maryland (11-35 a year ago) and Rutgers (28-19 against weak competition in 2014) combine with a home-and-home against a dismal MSU program and home stands against Penn State and Indiana to round out the Big Ten schedule (there are also a pair of one-offs against MAC opposition mixed in).
Once again, Michigan misses out on most of the tougher opponents in conference, including ranked Nebraska and a Wisconsin team that just missed the top-25. While this is a boost to Michigan’s chances to win the conference, it is a real missed opportunity in terms of staying sharp by facing the best. It’s hard to avoid feeling like the suits at Big Ten HQ dropped the ball on this one once again. Michigan plays the 3 worst teams in the Big Ten from last year, both of the mediocre newcomers, and only one of the other 4 NCAA tournament teams from a year ago. For comparison, Minnesota plays all the tournament teams, and Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Northwestern play all of them except for Michigan.
It’s almost time for some hot takes, but first a look back at the Bold Predictions made in this space a year ago. I said:
- “I expect Michigan to pick up a few quality wins in the non-conference schedule and come into the Big Ten season still sporting a top-ten ranking.”
Correct! Michigan was ranked #6 in the nation when they opened Big Ten play by slaughtering Indiana in a trio of run-rule decisions.
- "Six straight Big Ten Titles will probably become seven, as no one in the Big Ten can match Michigan’s talent. Nebraska is an up-and-coming team and may provide a challenge, but in my estimation their tougher schedule will probably doom them to a strong second-place showing.”
Correct (almost)! I was right that Michigan would win a Big Ten championship, and also on the mark in identifying Nebraska as the primary threat to Michigan’s reign of terror. What I did not foresee were disastrous road losses against Illinois and Purdue, which opened the door for Nebraska to clinch a share of the title as well.
- “Michigan will once again host a regional and probably a super-regional as well and will go all the way to the WCWS. … Winning it all is a lofty goal, but it is well within reach.”
Not quite. Michigan was on track to do exactly this, but faded down the stretch. The stumbles in the latter portion of the Big Ten season and Michigan’s failure to lock up the conference tournament title sent the Wolverines to Tempe to play in Arizona State’s regional. While Michigan triumphed heroically and started off strong in the super-regional (handing Florida State the worst loss in program history), they could not seal the deal, and went home early.
Looking ahead to this season, it is hard to deviate too much from what I said going into last year. I’m a bit more circumspect about our chances to host a super-regional or maintain a consistent top-ten ranking, given how much we’re replacing on the offensive side of the ball. If things come together at the plate, however, the sky could very well be the limit for this year’s team. So:
- Michigan will end the non-conference portion of the season with a few big wins, but suffer too many setbacks to stay in the top-ten. They will still be in position to host a regional, however, with a ranking in the top 16.
- When a team has won seven conference championships in a row and returns this kind of pitching and talents like the Sierras, it is almost impossible to pick against them in conference play. Even if Michigan struggles, the substantially easier slate of opponents will guide the Maize and Blue to another outright Big Ten crown.
- Michigan will host a regional in Ann Arbor, but probably not a super-regional unless the youth movement on offense comes together in a big way. A trip to the WCWS is very much in play, but not a lock.
- A bonus prediction: with Hutch only needing 28 wins to crack the 1,400 mark and having earned at least 40 wins in every single season since 1994, look for her to fly past 1,400 career wins in 2015.
This Michigan team has a number of wild-cards that make prognosticating difficult. Will Wagner & Driesenga finally both play at an elite level at the same time? How quickly can the offense get up to speed while replacing such a huge part of the line-up? Can Michigan maintain their elite defensive play without its host of reliable seniors? Any of these doubts could hold Michigan back from achieving their lofty goals. If these questions can all be resolved, however, Michigan should be a WCWS team, and could very well wear the crown again, just as they did 10 years ago. What we know for sure is that we’ll have a talented, disciplined, well-coached team that plays as a single unit and stays focused on one-pitch softball. February 7th cannot come soon enough!
As usual, when we need something positive to think about around here, we look no further than the softball team. This weekend the team took on a strong Kentucky squad coming off a trip to the WCWS last season in a three game set that has been billed as a "fall super-regional", in reference to the high quality of the matchup. The Wolverines dropped the first game of the set 6-3. Most of the Kentucky runs came against highly-touted freshman Tera Blanco, who gave up 4 earned-runs in one rough inning - not a big point of concern, as this was her first look at elite college hitting.
Game two on Saturday looked much better for the Wolverines, as the bats came alive in a big way. Junior superstar Sierra Romero went two-for-two at the plate, going long both times for 5 RBIs (Romo continues to put up video-game numbers, with a 6-8 weekend at the plate that included 4 home runs - you read that right, she homered twice as often as she was retired). Lawrence, Sweet, and Blanco all homered as well, and Lawrence sparkled in her newfound role as the leadoff hitter. A .351 hitter last season, Lawrence went 6-for-12 on the weekend.
The rubber game was played earlier this afternoon, and the Wolverines did not disappoint. The long-ball was again the story, as Romo delivered her third and fourth blasts of the weekend, along with one each from Montemarano & Driesenga.
All told, a solid weekend against a very good opponent. We'll want to see more from the pitching/defense in the regular season, but with Hutch spreading around the innings to some extent, especially in the first game, there is nothing to worry about, especially with such a deep and talented staff.
Anyone go to the games & have insights to offer?