bubble watch

Now part of a recurring series. Check out jamiemac's Diary on the Bracket Matrix for more breakdowns as they specifically relate to Michigan.

Tales from Last Night

Last night went much better for Michigan than did Monday. The relevant results for the Wolverines:

• Harvard beat Penn 79-64. The Crimson are a past opponent, so we want them to do very well.
• Princeton beat Dartmouth 77-55. We wanted Princeton to lose because they're Harvard's competition for the Ivy League title and NCAA Tournament bid.

It was a small schedule last night, and everything went as expected.

The Bubble

Looks like The Matrix isn't going to update before tonight's relevant games start, so the table below comes from yesterday's update.

Per the Bracket Matrix:

	Bids	Bubble In	Bubble Out	Change
Big East	11	Marq (10)
SEC	5	Tenn (9), UGa (10),	Bama	Bama out.
Big Ten	6	Mich (12), MSU (10), Ill (9)	Minn, PSU
ACC	5	Clemson (12), BC (12), VT (11), FSU (9)	Mary
Big 12	5		Neb, Bay, Colo, OkSt
Pac-10	3	Wash (9), UCLA (8)	USC, Washington St.
Atlantic 10	3	Richmond (11)
Mountain West	3	UNLV (8)	Colo St
West Coast	2	Zaga (12), St Mary's (11)
Colonial	2	George Mason (8), Old Domin (8)	VCU
CUSA	2	Memphis (12), UAB (11)	USM, UTEP, Marsh, UCF
WAC	1	Utah State (9)
Horizon	1	Butler (12)	Cleve St, UW-Mil
Summit	1	1-bid Oakland (13)
Ivy	1	1-bid Princeton (13)	Harvard

Chart doesn't include last night's results.

Today's Games

Big day. General rule: cheer against bubble teams, and for past Michigan opponents.

• Kansas @ Missouri (Noon, CBS). The Jayhawks are a past Michigan opponent, so you want them to win.
• Virginia Tech @ Clemson (Noon, ESPN2). These are both bubble teams, but Virginia Tech has a stronger resume right now and Clemson is also a past Michigan opponent. Pull HARD for the Tigers.
• Indiana @ Illinois (Noon, BTN). You want Indiana to stay above the 200 RPI threshold, so Michigan's loss to them isn't as bad. Plus, the Wolverines own a win over Indiana but not Illinois. This game could also hurt the Illini's psyche before a possible first-round BTT matchup with Michigan. HOWEVA, Indiana ain't gon' win, so don't worry about it.
• Duquesne @ Richmond (Noon). The Spiders are a bubble team, and you want the Dukes to do everything in their power to change that.
• Georgia @ Alabama (1:30, ESPN3). Both are bubble teams, but the Bulldogs are slightly stronger right now, and you want Alabama to knock them down to their level - especially since the Tide probably lost their main at-large chance against Florida the other night.
• Iowa State @ Kansas State (1:30, ESPN3). Iowa State has no shot at an at-large bid, so you want them to do as much damage as possible to Kansas State.
• Oregon @ Arizona (2:00, CBS). Haha, most of you have to watch this instead of a game that more than 8 people care about. CBS hates you.
• Virginia @ Maryland (2:00, ESPN3). Root for the Hoos to end Maryland's chances to get an at-large.
• UTEP @ SMU (3:00). Though UTEP is a fellow bubble team, they're a past Michigan opponent so you want them to do well. If the MSU game isn't going so hot, switch allegiances to SMU, I guess.
• Purdue @ Iowa (4:00, ESPN). You want Iowa to spring the upset and stay in the RPI top 200 (not gonna happen).
• Tulane @ Memphis (4:00). The Green wave can end Memphis's hopes to pick up an at-large bid by saddling them with a bad loss.
• Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma (4:00, ESPN3). Oklahoma State is on the bubble fringe, but the Sooners can end that on their senior day.
• UNLV @ Utah (4:00). The Runnin' Rebels are solidly in the tournament, but Utah is a past Michigan opponent.
• UCLA @ Washington State (5:30). The Bruins are solidly in the tournament, and can knock off Washington State's run.
• Marquette @ Seton Hall (6:00, ESPN3). Marquette is sliding after Wednesday's loss to Cincinnati, and this could finish them.
• Princeton @ Harvard (7:00, ESPN3). The Ivy League's website breaks down title scenarios. You are a HUGE Harvard fan in this one (see top section of this post).
• Southern Utah v. Oakland (7:00). Past Michigan opponent Grizzlies kick off their conference tournament.
• UCF @ Marshall (7:00). Both teams are on the bubble, so root for UCF because they're a little further behind.
• East Carolina @ UAB (8:00). UAB is on the bubble, and you want East Carolina to knock them off it.
• Southern Miss @ Tulsa (8:00). Same goes for this game.
• Texas @ Baylor (9:00, ESPN). You want Texas to permanently knock Baylor out of the running for a bubble spot.
• Nebraska @ Colorado (9:00). Both bubble teams, root for the weaker one.
• Colorado State @ San Diego State (10:00). The Aztecs can knock Colorado State off the bubble.
• Canisius v. Rider (10:00, ESPN3). Least important game on the docket, since both schools are highly unlikely to get anything other than an autobid. Get good karma by rooting on John Beilein's old team, though.
• USC @ Washington (10:30). Since USC lost Thursday night, they're going to miss the tournament. Root for them to weaken Washington on their way out.
• Buffalo @ Bowling Green. The Falcons are a past Michigan opponent, and you want them to end up as respectable as possible.

Tons of games today, but remember that most of them mean nothing unless the maize-and-blue can emerge victorious over MSU.

Go Blue Wear Maize Beat State.

In the same spirit as yesterday's post. Check out jamiemac's Diary on the Bracket Matrix for more breakdowns as they specifically relate to Michigan.

Tales from Last Night

All the games in which Michigan had a semi-serious rooting interest last night went the wrong way (though most of those results were expected):

• Notre Dame beat Villanova 93-72.
• Florida Gulf Coast beat USC Upstate 81-65.
• Bethune-Cookman beat NC Central 73-60.
• Kansas State beat Texas 75-70. The Longhorns have singlehandedly choked their way into getting Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas State onto the bubble.
• Gonzaga beat Cal State-Bakersfield 96-49.

None of these were killers, to say the least, but Kansas State is solidly in the tournament at this point.

The Bubble

The Matrix hasn't been updated since last night's results, so consider it a day-ish behind. The information isn't changing quickly enough for that to be a huge hindrance to our purposes.

Per the Bracket Matrix:

	Bids	Bubble In	Bubble Out	Change
Big East	11	Marq (10)		None.
SEC	6	Tenn (9), UGa (10), Bama (12)		None.
Big Ten	6	Ill (10), MSU (11), Mich (12)	Minn, PSU	MSU down from 10, Mich in, Minn out.
ACC	5	BC (12), VT (10), FSU (9)	Clem, Mary	Seeds reshuffled.
Big 12	5	KSU (8)	Neb, Bay, Colo, OkSt	KSU up from 9.
Pac-10	3	Wash (9), UCLA (8)	USC, Washington St.	Washington down from 8.
Atlantic 10	3	Richmond (11)	Dayton	Duquesne gone.
Mountain West	3	UNLV (8)	Colo St	None.
West Coast	2	Zaga (12), St Mary's (11)		None.
Colonial	2	Old Domin (8)	VCU	None.
CUSA	2	Memphis (11), UAB (12)	USM, UTEP, Marsh, UCF	None.
WAC	1	Utah State (9)
Horizon	1	Butler (12)	Cleve St, UW-Mil
Summit	1	1-bid Oakland (13)
Ivy	1	1-bid Princeton (13)	Harvard	Princeton in, Harvard out.

I've excised all of the conferences that are going to have 1 bid no matter what, because they won't affect our bubble watch (unless a past Michigan opponent goes on a crazy run and wins the conference tourney, of course).

Today's Games

As always, your general principle is to root against all teams on the bubble, whether they're in the tournament for now, or just barely on the outside. Things get a little more complicated when Michigan's past opponents are involved.

• Illinois @ Purdue (7:00 ESPN). Since Michigan played each of these teams only once, I think you want Purdue to win. The Wolverines are fighting with Illinois for a bubble spot.
• Baylor @ Oklahoma State (7:00 ESPN2). Both of these teams are on the outside of the Big 12 bubble. I think you want Baylor to win, since they're more likely to lose their final game to Texas (well, with the way Texas is playing, who knows?) than Oklahoma state is to lose to Oklahoma.
• Alabama @ Florida (7:00 ESPNU). You want Florida to win. They are solidly in the tournament, whereas Alabama is a hardly-deserving bubble team. This could knock them out.
• Gardner-Webb @ Coastal Carolina (7:00 Gametracker). Gardner-Webb is a past Michigan opponent. They're facing Big South 1-seed Coastal Carolina in the first round of the conference tournament. An upset here would be nice, since this is a 1-bid conference either way.
• Kent State @ Bowling Green (7:30 ESPN3). Bowling Green is a past opponent. Kent State currently leads the MAC, but it is a 1-bid league either way.
• Missouri @ Nebraska (8:00 ESPN3). Missouri is solidly in the tournament, whereas Nebraska is barely on the bubble. This would definitely knock the Huskers out for good.
• Ohio State @ Penn State (9:00 BTN). I'm torn on this game. With a sweep of the Nittany Lions under our belt, you want them to be a top-50 RPI team. On the other hand, that means they strengthen their bubble position, harming Michigan. I still think a tiebreaker of 2-0 head-to-head between UM and PSU would swing things in Michigan's way. I'll say watch this game closely, but no clear rooting interest.
• Boston College @ Virginia Tech (9:00 ESPNU). This is another game that you could go either way on. One team will knock the other onto the wrong side of the bubble for the time being. I'll say you want BC to lose, since they have a near-automatic win (against Wake Forest at home) up next. You'll be rooting HARD for Clemson to beat Virginia Tech on Saturday.

Get your rootin' shoes on. Hopefully, it'll go better than last night. It should, as you want Kenpom's favored team to win 4 of the 7 games in which there's a clear rooting interest - he also favors Ohio State to knock Penn State down the pecking order, for what it's worth. Last night, we were pulling almost exclusively for underdogs (and a crappy Texas team).