I'VE HAD JUST ABOUT ENOUGH OF YOU SONNY
So maybe showing up early and waiting in line isn't such a bad thing afterall?
For 6 years, former UM students have now won half of all the AP male athlete of the year awards.
Phelps just beat out Lebron James, winning now for the second time. Brady also won in 2007, joining athletes such as Jordan, Bird, Woods, Montana, Mays, Mantle, Dimaggio, and---another UM alum: Tom Harmon.
Note that former UM students also won 3 of the last 9 SI Sportsman of the year awards (Brady, Phelps, and Derek Jeter—who said he may yet return to UM to get his degree (see link).
*ADDENDUM REVISED: Is Phelps a "Michigan Man"?
The link below provides some additional evidence suggesting that
1. Phelps took courses in marketing and management at UM for 2 years (2004-6)—and it is hard to believe he did not do at least one semester’s work in those two areas over a two year period--which technically would make him an “alum” according to most universities’ definitions.
2. Indeed, even if that were not the case, many of us did not do in our later careers exactly what we did or studied in school. In fact, many who came to Michigan—like Brady Hoke—were not even students at all. Yet, their experience at Michigan molded their characters and contributed greatly to their future successes. Just ask Brady.
3. Moreover, Phelps actually came to Ann Arbor because that enabled him for many years to work with the UM swimming coach. So, from a training perspective, he was as much a product of UM as any other UM athlete. So, not only can a good case can be made Phelps is an alum but, for all intensive purposes, a “Michigan Man.”
(PLEASE READ LINKS IF YOU NEED TO VERIFY THESE STATEMENTS)
Lloyd Brady keeps his streak alive. Looking bemused Saturday night in State College. Is it possible Lloyd has given up?
Edit: Oh yeah, some Penn State fans are idiots. Can't they tell the difference between Maize and yellow?
This blog previously considered the question whether or not one should go for it on 4th and goal from the 2. I recall the analysis, among other advantages, showing that, from NFL stats, the chance of making a touchdown (7pts) was about .6, yielding .6*7=4.2 pts on average, which exceeds the score from a made field goal.
Now Bill Belichick is being fried by the talking heads in New England for making a similar decision to go for...but to go for it not on the goal line but in his own territory (30 yd line) on 4th and 2 with 2 minutes left in the game vs IND, who is down by 6pts. Brady's pass was complete but marked inches short when it was bobbled, enabling IND to have a short field (30 yards) to score the winning TD. I know that Belichick's decision to go for it violates intuition and almost universal coaching practice. But was the decision really a mistake, as so many claim?
According to my VERY ROUGH and QUICK calculations and the graphical link below, the chance of NE winning was .68 with the decision to go for it vs. .5 if he decided to punt. So, I think Bill made the right choice. I'd be interested to know if anyone has different opinions about the chances of winning based on the assumptions, I have made below.
Note: Remember that, if NE succeeds on 4th and 2, the game is virtually over as they can run out the clock. I've assumed a 40 yard punt and no unforeseen turnovers. I considered that Peyton Manning had a hot hand, the NE defense was tired, and that IND had a higher than usual chance of making a TD, whether it was from 30 yards out (after NE fails on 4th and 2)(Pr=.8) or 70 yards out (ie after a punt)(Pr=.5).
Summary: NE had a greater chance winning by going for it on 4th and 2 (.68 vs. .5)
Analysis of the 2 possible decisions:
1. NE goes for it P(make 4th and two )=.6 =Chance PATS win immediately
Pr(don’t make 4th and two) = .4
p(Ind TD with 30 yard drive)=.8, Pr(IND does not make TD with 30 yard drive)=.2
Pr(IND fails to make TD on 30 yard drive and Pats fail on 4th and 2)=.2*.4=0.08
TOTAL CHANCE PATS WIN=.6+.08=.68
2. NE punts
Pr(IND TD with 70 yard drive)=.5* Pr(IND fails to score on 70 yard drive)=.5
TOTAL CHANCE PATS WIN=.5
Here's an article on the game decision.http://www.nj.com/sports/ledger/politi/index.ssf/2009/11/new_england_patriots_coach_bil.html