I thought that myself when I read that article that talked about a Data Scientist(tm)
The B1G went a respectable 7-5 ATS last weekend; while Michigan did not obviously fare as well. Wisconsin is the only team left with a perfect record ATS.
|Michigan||-31.5||59-9 (CMU)||+18.5||-5||41-30 (ND)||+6||-37||28-24 (Akron)||-33|
|Ohio||-34||40-20 (Buff)||-14||-28||42-7 (SDSU)||+7||-13.5||52-34 (@Cal)||+4.5|
|Michigan St||-28||26-13 (WMU)||-15||-21.5||21-6 (USF)||-6.5||-23||55-17 (Young St)||+15|
|Indiana||-25||73-35 (Ind St)||+13||-12.5||35-41 (Navy)||-18.5||-2.5||42-10 (BGSU)||+29.5|
|Illinois||-17||42-34 (So Ill)||-9||+8||45-17 (Cinci)||+36||+10.5||24-34 (Wash)||+0.5|
|Northwestern||-6.5||44-30 (@Cal)||+7.5||-17||48-27 (Syr)||+4||-28||38-17 (WMU)||-7|
|Penn State||-8||23-17 (Syr)||-2||-28||45-7 (EMU)||+10||-4.5||31-34 (UCF)||-7.5|
|Nebraska||-31||37-34 (Wyo)||-28||-28||56-13 (S Miss)||+15||-1.5||21-41 (UCLA)||-21.5|
|Iowa||-3||27-30 (N Ill)||-6||-26||28-14 (Misso St)||-12||-1||27-21 (@Iowa St)||+5|
|Wisconsin||-44||45-0 (UMass)||+1||-45||48-0 (Tenn Tech)||+3||+7||30-32 (@AZ St)||+5|
|Purdue||+10.5||7-42 (Cinci)||-24.5||-17||20-14 (Ind St)||-11||+17||31-24 (ND)||+10|
|Minnesota||-13.5||51-23 (UNLV)||+14.5||-16||44-21 (N Mex St)||+7||-27.5||29-12 (W Ill)||-10.5|
Penn State is the big mover; the line has increased 7 points since the open. Indiana opened as the underdog, but the market has determined that game is a toss-up. We have our first B1G match-up with Purdue @ Wisconsin. Of course with a current spread 23.5 it doesn't really set off fireworks for the start of league play. Can Michigan recover and win by 3 TD's? They may be able to cover that O by themselves.
|Penn State||-14||-21||54||Kent St|
If MCalibur, or anyone else, has the missing O/U I'll update them as they come in.
Michigan is currently a 13 point underdog to Alabama in the JerryWorld game. (Link: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120215/SPORTS0201/202150407/1131/Michigan-now-13-point-underdog-against-Alabama.)
Personally, even though I'm not much for bets, I'd take Michigan at those odds. Of course, I'm a shameless homer who only roots for Michigan, but I can't see them beating us that soundly.
I also believe that Michigan has an advantage in facing them at the beginning of the season. Denard should have a lot more opportunity to surprise their defense. Even though Alabama has many great incoming freshmen, it always takes a while for newcomers to make solid contributions. We'll see. Of course, it'll be interested to hear RDT's take on the game and the odds.
Ed-M: Bumped due to info/graphic awesome.
Diarist Note: The Pick-4 contest is up and running at the JCB. We have an assortment of good football and soccer coverage over there to set you up for the weekend. I’ll have weekend picks up later, so you’ll know exactly which teams to fade while I try to gamble my way out last week’s slump.
In a season of transition for both programs, Penn State and Michigan meet in Happy Valley tomorrow night in what could prove to be a signature game for the winner. Neither club has any Big 10 Title aspirations, but critical bowl positioning and perhaps even the inside track to the Gator Bowl, will be on the line when the ball finally kicks off in anger in primetime.
This week’s Big 10 slate is highlighted by the showdown in Iowa City between the Hawkeyes and Spartans, but this contest has implications that loom as large, just in a different venue. What happens to the loser of this game? For Penn State, it means they probably will do no better than a 6-6 record. Or worse. Will the cries for Joe Pa’s head reach the levels of 2003 and 2004 if the Nits revert to their losing ways from the early portion of that decade?
And speaking of cries for heads, how about Rich Rodriguez. There isn't a coach in the country taking more heat for a 5-2 record than Rodriguez, the remaining residue from his 8-16 mark during his first two seasons. A third loss in a row and November might end up being more kind to turkeys than the Wolverines current head coach.
5-2 by year three is just unacceptable, dear.
Everyone here knows all those storylines, so I wont bloviate on and on there. Tomorrow night’s game should be a blast and it will help define what sort of final month either club will have. Here are some of the keys to the game, as I see it through the MGo Over/Under Board. Place your bets accordingly.
First, however, it should be noted that with the conference breaking into two divisions and Michigan and Penn State being seated on different sides, this will be the last PSU/UM in at least a couple of years. Who knows when the Maize and Blue will be back in Happy Valley, so to honor the moment let’s go back in the Way Back Machine, courtesy of Wolverine Historian, and remember the Wolverines' first-ever visit to Beaver Stadium:
Ah, memories. You shall be missed, oh second-largest.
(The picks, after the jump.)
I think we win, but that seems REALLY high considering IU's offensive power.
Let's hope the money is right.
This is a message the players should get. My first reaction to UM’s predicament was to give up on the team this year. When you are expected to lose both of the next 2 games by significant margins, it’s easy to get discouraged. But then I wondered, what’s the chance that UM could still get to a bowl game this year and end up with a decent record. Given turnovers, missed extra points, injuries, illnesses, unexplained fluctuations in motivation, etc.—how likely is it that UM could steal one of the games Just think: Purdue beat OSU. Navy beat ND. NW beat Iowa…Washington(?state) beat USC….I could go on. The point is that there’s a lot that can happen that is not predictable with certainty even if one team is a big favorite. So what’s the chance that UM might finally catch a break after an otherwise heartbreaking season?
I first calculated the predicted point spreads based on UM OSU AND WI’s Sagarin Predictor ratings to get an idea about the possible point spreads in our next 2 games, as calculated below (the sagarin ratings are actually used by vegas to help set the betting lines, and the rating method chosen actually predicts the outcome of games).
I took a random game on the net that had posted both a 12-14 pt spread and odds roughly comparable to spreads I calculated for UM vs WI (-11 ) and OSU (-15).
I found that UM has a 31% chance of getting to a bowl game and the second most likely final record is 7-6.
Conclusion: A nearly 1/3 chance of a bowl is not a reason for hopelessness…in fact, it’s a far better chance than was the team's early season goal of winning the B10.
So, now is not a time for the team to get discouraged..but rather to redouble their efforts… One of their important goals is still in sight.