Attrition

So, the football roster changes all the time. We have already seen attrition, which can be categorized in at least six ways:

1. Academic (Tate Forcier?)
2. Health related (edit:  had Terrence Robinson, wrong name)
3. Fit with coaches, scheme, dealing with coaching change (Je'Ron Stokes?)
4. PT, or probably lack thereof (Posada?)
5. Behavioral (Kellen Jones?)
6. Unrenewed 5th year.

Now we see Chris Barnett leaving, seemingly for reason 3 (lack of fit with coaches.)

That means attrition of 3 in the last few days, in Stokes, Posada, and now Barnett. There was also the non-enrollment of Kellen Jones, and a couple others gone for health related reasons, reported at the beginning of Fall practice.

I have two questions:

1. Do insiders know if more attrition is expected this year? (no names, position groups, or other hints needed or wanted.)
2. If one of you has access to the numbers, I'd like a sense of the running average for attrition over the last 10 years.

Some have suggested that all the recent attrition is pretty normal, and I can buy that. But I'd like to see the numbers. I'm wondering at what point there should be "concern" over the current level of attrition.

Why was I so feared, and you so loved? What was it? I was no less honorable. I wanted to do good. What betrayed me? My mind? My heart? Why do I condemn myself so? I swear, on the lives of my children: Give me a chance to redeem myself, and I will sin, no more.

If you have followed this series, you are now familiar with the message: light but focused recruiting plus really bad attrition equaled a defense with some really great players and some suicidal kittens.

Here's a question: based on recruiting and retention from 2006 to the present, how good will Michigan's defense be this year?

This diary will look at the talent on Michigan's roster in 2010 versus that of 2009, plus that of two rivals in that time, to try to get an idea of what kind of team we will be looking at this coming season.

In the first, we met the family.

In the second, we saw that family destroyed.

Today, I bring you Part III.

You know, the one that's chronologically incompatible with the other two, with the substantially lower production values, that rehashes old characters and plotlines from the previous flicks in order to squeeze more cachet out of the franchise.

In the third (and final?) installment of the Decimated Defense Trilogy, I will look to the future, comparing Michigan's 2010 defensive roster and attrition numbers against those of last year, and also against 2009 and 2010 for two relevant rivals: Ohio State and Michigan State.

Still interested? [ED: YES YOU ARE.]

So we're not who we thought we were. Well, we're who we thought we were in August, but definitely not the team we thought we were in early October. Is it really all that horrible? Are we doomed for the next decade? Will there be a "Weis Diet" before we are in a New Years Day bowl game? Will JoePa say "You know what? I think I've done this long enough, I have other stuff in my life that I can do besides stomp around on the field and act like a coach" before we win a Big Ten title?

Very possibly. More so the latter than the former, but still. We're not good. Not even that close, really. We'll get better and better, but if the attrition rates continue to be what they are, it might be some time before we're going to have a double-digit win season.

I know the issue of attrition has been beat to death lately, but I figured I'd take one more whack at that dead horse with some colorful, insightful-
Charts?

Charts.

Original table and rankings is derived from Scout's ranking service, and the Modified Rankings I did by myself. If you don't agree, that sucks. Make your own damn diary.

NC stands for "Not Contributing" and can mean anything from "transferred" to "kicked off the team" to "buried so deep on the depth chart we're not even sure he still plays for us".

2006 Recruiting Class



Not a bad class by any means, half of the 20-man class was 4 and 5 star prospects. Then this happened:

Schilling- 5* to 4*

Graham- LB to D-Line

Slocum- NC

Mouton- 5* S to 4* LB

Boren- NC

Brown- 4* DB to 4* LB

Patterson- NC

Mixon- NC

Cone- 3* to 2*

Mathews- 3* to 4*

Banks- NC

Patilla- NC

Ezeh- 3* RB to 4* LB

Dorrenstein- NC

Wright- 2* to 3*

Kates- NC

Woods- NC

Andddd we got this:

We lost nine players, including four 5*s and both secondary players. Some pretty good foreshadowing for a few years down the line. And this is after both Greg Mathews and Obi Ezeh were bumped from 3*s to 4*s.

2007 Recruiting Class

Another pretty darn good recruiting class, with 14 of the 20 prospects rated 4* or higher. I wonder how this could get messed up. I mean even losing a few players here and there.. we had 12 4* prospects for god's sake- OH DEAR GOD

Mallett- NC

Helmuth- NC

Williams- 4* to 3*

Clemons- NC

Watson- NC

Webb- 4* to 3*

Rogers- NC

Herron- 4* to 3*

Babb- NC

Panter- NC

Evans- NC

Chambers- NC

Horn- NC

Huyge- 2* to 3*

Sagesse- 2* to 3*

And that led to this:

We dropped from fourteen total 4 and 5*'s to FOUR. I mean jesus. That's just awful. Half of the entire 2007 recruiting class is either gone or not being used. And besides Donovan Warren, the last two recruiting classes have now combined for a grand total of two 3* players in the secondary. Again, I am starting to see why we're not doing too well this season.

2008 Recruiting Class

Again, not a bad class at all. Fourteen 4* prospects alone in this one. And a nice, big 25 player class. Things are looking up in Ann Arbo- SWEET JESUS NOT AGAIN.

Cissoko- NC

Smith- 4* to 3*

McGuffie- NC

Fitzgerald- 4* to 3*

Wermers- NC

O'Neill- NC

Witherspoon- NC

Robinson- 4* RB to 3* WR

Mealer- NC

Cox- 4* to 3*

Hill- NC

Floyd- 3* to 4*

Morales- NC

Feagin- NC

I don't want to look at it, either. But that led to..

Ten fewer players yet again, zero 5*s (thanks, Boo-Boo) and six 4*s. And that's because I gave JT Floyd a fourth star. Just horrendous stuff.

So in those three recruiting classes (I'm not doing '09 just yet), the eight 5*s are now two, the thirty-one 4* players are now sixteen, and the 65 players total are now 36. Not exactly what anyone had in mind when the classes were actually coming in.

If the '09 class turns out to be a good one, and we lock up a few high-caliber players in 2010, I think we'll be alright in a few years. For this season (and potentially next), however, it's kind of easy to see why we're struggling against the likes of Indiana and Illinois. 

We don't have the depth that we should because our stellar signing day lists are down to almost nothing a few years down the line. I don't know what RichRod or any of the coaching staff can do to make sure future players stay out of trouble and on the field, but if these numbers don't improve significantly over the next few years, it's going to be a while before we're playing in January.

Any and all comments are welcome. Thanks for reading.