fair point that
As I was reading through fellow fans' reactions to recent recruitment news, someone had mentioned that 'recruiting doesn't really matter.' I'd read that several places, and in the back of my mind I probably didn't believe it. So, I decided to see if the quality of the class as measured through the eyes of a scouting site really did matter.
Turns out, it may not really matter. (Note: This isn't an end all be all of an analysis, and I'm not an expert on Statistics, Recruiting or Women. I also only looked at the top 12 as this takes a lot of time, plus it afforded me another opportunity to disrespect Ohio.)
What?! How dare thee suggest class rank doesn't matter! I'd kindly refer you to the table.
What is this table that thee speaketh of? Uh, chart?
|2011 AP||Team||Average Class||Difference||2011 Rank - 2007/8 Class||2012 Class||2011 Class||2010 Class||2009 Class||2008 Class||2007 Class|
Alabama and LSU have consistently strong classes, and the oversigning debacle probably helps them out some more. They along with USC seem to perform commensurate with expectations.
Some of the interesting items are the massive difference between expectations and results for a few select schools: Boise St, Michigan St, Texas, Florida, Oklahoma St and Notre Dame. You can see for yourselves, but Boise St rocks it with classes that are rarely in the top 50%. Their average class is sitting at 70. Texas and Notre Dame have the opposite problem.
You clearly need to have quality players. However, strong coaching, an eye for talent and knowing how to use and motivate that talent go far. Also, it may suggest that these recruiting services "one size fits all" approach to ranking players and classes is largely irrelevant to a team's performance. There's a long list of 5* failures and world beating 3* guys.
I didn't do a regression analysis as I'm a) lazy, b) not The Mathlete and c) things seem fairly obvious after perusing the data. Also, any laser focus on a single aspect of a team's record will probably miss the forest for the trees, but I'm just trying to provide some evidence on this point specifically.
Let's talk data sources and definitions. I used the final AP Ranking for this past season. The class ranking data is from Scout. I imagine it would be easy enough to bump this against some of the other scouting services to see what they say, as well as perhaps the Coach's Poll and whatnot, but I my imaginary army of minions was busy doing something else. So, this is what we're left with.
The "Average Class" is the class average from 2007 through 2011. I felt that the 2012 rankings, while somewhat finalized, aren't really part of this equation, yet. More just a "that's kinda interesting" rather than a "I think there's something there."
The "Difference" is the difference between that aforementioned "Average Class" and the final 2011 AP Ranking.
The "2011 Rank - 2007/8 Class" is the 2011 AP Ranking minus the average of the 2007 and 2008 Recruit Class.
So, what do you think?
Michigan is #17 and #16 in the AP and coaches poll respectively. Anyone else worried(If we win) that we might not get to #14 after OSU to qualify for a BCS Bowl? Give me your thoughts
EDIT: Good points. Beat Ohio
And in the newly released BCS Standings, we are at 15
Rumor has it that Craig James has Michigan ranked the highest of all the AP voters, at 16.
See what I did there?
Edit: Google search for "rumors about craig james". We've made history here, folks...
Although we may despise Notre Dame there have been some valuable contributions by Notre Dame football blogs. One of the best was the Pick Six contest that the now defunct Notre Dame blog Blue-Gray Sky used to operate. Before the season you pick 5 ranked teams and one unranked team that you think will end the season with the highest rankings after the bowls are done.
I enjoyed entering the contest when Blue-Gray Sky was still around so with Brian's approval we're bringing Pick Six to MGoBlog.
- A: Oklahoma, Alabama, Oregon, LSU, Boise State
- B: Florida State, Stanford, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Nebraska
- C: Wisconsin, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, TCU, Arkansas
- D: Notre Dame, Michigan State, Ohio State, Georgia, Mississippi State
- E: Missouri, Florida, Auburn, West Virginia, Southern Cal
The Associated Press Top 25 Poll
Updated: Sunday October 03, 2010 12:21 PM
Rank Team Record Votes Previous
1 Alabama (58) 5-0 1,497 1
2 Ohio State (1) 5-0 1,401 2
3 Oregon 5-0 1,379 4
4 Boise State (1) 4-0 1,341 3
5 TCU 5-0 1,250 5
6 Oklahoma 5-0 1,183 8
7 Nebraska 4-0 1,172 6
8 Auburn 5-0 1,045 10
9 Arizona 4-0 898 14
10 Utah 4-0 860 13
11 Arkansas 3-1 825 15
12 LSU 5-0 819 12
13 Miami (FL) 3-1 769 16
14 Florida 4-1 681 7
15 Iowa 4-1 670 17
16 Stanford 4-1 663 9
17 Michigan State 5-0 607 24
18 Michigan 5-0 555 19
19 South Carolina 3-1 450 20
20 Wisconsin 4-1 316 11
21 Nevada 5-0 286 25
22 Oklahoma State 4-0 173 NR
23 Florida State 4-1 162 NR
24 Missouri 4-0 99 NR
25 Air Force 4-1 94 NR
Others Receiving Votes: West Virginia83, Kansas State69, USC52, Texas33, Northwestern25, Oregon State12, Baylor10, Virginia Tech8, UCLA8, North Carolina State4, Penn State1
The headline is self explanatory.
Kansas is #1, MSU #2.
Others of note: