Al Borges is a mad magician

Ohmygod Ohmygod his tie is red his tie is red HOW CAN WE TRUST THIS MAN???!!!

I have to start Part III off with an apology: there will be FOUR parts in this series.  As I looked at the data left to review for Borges' play-calling and the cumulative data I planned to analyze in Part III, I realized it would make for a long, long post.  You people don't tend to like that.  Plus, this way, you'll have an extra distraction at work on Monday AND Tuesday.

In Part I, Borges' first years in coaching (going back to 1975) and his rise to OC at UCLA were summarized.  Part II examined Al's disastrous decision to return to Cal, his subsequent punishment as the OC at Indiana, and his triumphant and terrible years at Auburn.  Now, it's Brady Hoke's turn.

"Resigned" sounds so much better than "fired," but that's what happened to Al Borges before the 2007 season ended at Auburn.

Borges sat out the 2008 season.  It was the first time he had not been part of a coaching staff since 1974, and he had been an OC since 1985.  There is no doubt that Borges took the blame for Auburn's 2007 woes, and, while some of that is surely justified, Tuberville was part of the problem too--he got canned in 2008.  Nevertheless, Borges was the fall guy in '07, and was forced out even before the Tigers' appearance in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

If you've read Parts I & II, you know Borges is a California guy.  So after a year away from the only job Borges had ever had--still living in East Alabama where his wife served as Associate Athletic Director for Marketing and Communications for Auburn--I'm sure he was thrilled to get Hoke's call, even if it was coming from San Diego State.

Interestingly, SDSU had been among the schools that had reported interest in hiring Borges in 2005, after his record-breaking season at Auburn.  I'm not sure Brady had to be very persuasive, but all Hoke had to sell as a Head Coach at that point was an undefeated regular season at Ball State.

On Christmas Eve, 2008, Borges joined Brady Hoke.  They haven't been apart since.

The 2009 season at San Diego State was less than spectacular.  Coming off of a 2-10 performance in 2008, the Aztecs didn't seem to have much talent, and had average attendace of 24,376 in a stadium that holds over 70 thousand.  Not good.

But they did have Ryan Lindley.  In 2008, the freshman had taken the starting job and had a respectable season for the unrespectable Aztecs.  Throwing for 2,663 yards and 16 TDs, it was a decent season and earned him a 117.17 rating.  The running game?  It averaged 3.09 yds/att and accumulated a pathetic 878 yards for the season.  Denard accounts for 878 yards in like six quarters.

2009 wasn't exactly a turnaround.  SDSU doubled their win total, but that got them to just 4-8.  And the offense certainly wasn't humming, averaging just 23.3 pts/gm (#85 nationally).  Here's the final tally:

	Plays	%	Yards	% of Yds	Yds/Play
Run	328	42%	940	23%	2.87
Pass	448	58%	3163	77%	7.06
Total	776		4103		5.29

The frightfully bad running game from 2008 was even scarier under Borges in 2009, but the passing game did take some big steps.  At 77% of offensive yardage, the '09 Aztec passing attack represents the most yardage-biased phase Borges has ever coached--a full 5% greater than his 2000 UCLA passing offense.  Lindley's rating improved to 123.45 on 3,054 yds, a 54.7% completion rate, 7.0 yds/att, 23 TDs, and 16 INTs.

The running game was atrocious.  Bradnon Sullivan's 558 yards led the team.  He averaged just 3.62 ypc.  Only Borges' 2000 UCLA running offense averaged fewer yds/play.

In 2010, Hoke did what had taken him five seasons at Ball State--he turned SDSU into a winner.  The Aztecs would ring-up a 9-4 record that was close to being even better--their four losses were by a combined 15 points.  The offense would put-up 35.0 pts/gm (#19) and never scored fewer than 21 points.  They hung 35 points on #2 TCU in Fort Worth, nearly beating the Horned Frogs, and coming closer than anyone else would during the regular season (Wisconsin came within two points at the Rose Bowl).  Here are the Aztecs numbers from 2010:

	Plays	%	Yards	% of Yds	Yds/Play
Run	439	51%	2101	35%	4.79
Pass	426	49%	3840	65%	9.01
Total	865		5941		6.87

Was Al Borges dumb in 2009 and smart in 2010?  No.  Al Borges had a better O-Line.  Al Borges also had a freshman named Ronnie Hillman--now a Denver Bronco--who ran for 1,532 yards and averaged 5.85 ypc.  His 262 carries were nearly 200 more than Walter Kazee, the sophomore who was the "other" RB in the offense and had 324 yards on just 67 carries.  Sullivan, a senior and the leading rusher from the previous season, had just 40 carries for 124 yards.  Only Borges' 2005 Auburn rushing attack--the Kenny Irons year, not the Cadillac/Ronnie Brown year--averaged more yards per play on the ground.

But as good as that running game was, the passing game was better.  Lindley pumped out 3,830 yards (#7 in the country) on 421 attempts (9.1 ypa) and threw for 28 TDs and 14 INTs.  To put that in persepective, it would be the best season in Michigan history for a QB by 509 yards and three TDs.  Lindley's rating sky-rocketed to a silly 149.43, good for #21 in the country and ahead of guys like Geno Smith, RGIII, and Matt Barkley (and one spot behind...Denard Robinson).

Which brings us to...

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Most of us are familiar with Borges' trials since his arrival in Ann Arbor.  He had never coached a spread offense before, and never had a QB rush for significant chunk of his teams' yards.  Rather than summarizing those seasons, here are the numbers from 2011:

	Plays	%	Yards	% of Yds	Yds/Play
Run	560	66%	2884	55%	5.15
Pass	284	34%	2377	45%	8.37
Total	844		5261		6.23

As a percentage of plays called, Borges had never run the ball more.  Perhaps even more significantly, the ground game accounted for 55% of the yards gained in 2011--the first time a Borges-led offense had more yards rushing than passing, and 7% more than the 48% from his stinky 2003 offense at Indiana.  It was also his first rushing attack to average over 5 yards per play, and was more than a quarter-of-a-yard better than his previous best.  The flipside is that Denard's passer rating would suffer, falling almost 10 points to 139.73.  We would score 33.3 pts/gm (#26), go 11-2, and win the BCS Sugar Bowl.  Yeah, you know that.  But it's fun to look at.

Of course, 2012 was...not as good.  But it certainly wasn't bad.  At 29.8 pts/gm (#57), the 2012 offense had three parts: 1) Denard 2) Nebraska 3) DG/Denard hybrid.  It makes for a strange statistical study, and I'm not sure how significant it is, but here you go:

	Plays	%	Yards	% of Yds	Yds/Play
Run	502	61%	2389	48%	4.76
Pass	318	39%	2591	52%	8.15
Total	820		4980		6.07

This is still Borges' third-best ground game (in ypp) and a pretty good passing game (rescued by DG).  Denard's passer rating dropped again, this time to 126.63--his worst since his freshman year.  What may surprise you is that Denard actually ran for more yards in 2012 than he did in 2011.  The unfortunate accompanying truth is that no RB rushed for more than 514 yards (Fitz) or 5 TDs (Fitz again).

Perhaps more useful to examine would be the final five games of 2012:

	Plays	%	Yards	% of Yds	Yds/Play
Run	184	59%	736	38%	4.00
Pass	128	41%	1219	62%	9.52
Total	312		1955		6.27

I was surprised to see how run-heavy we remained, although, as I noted, this was really still a fusion offense, utilizing spread concepts to continue getting Denard carries.  There is no doubt that the running game suffered without Denard as the QB, just as it is crystal clear that the air attack was far more effective.  Overall, in fact, the offense averaged more yards per play than it did in 2011 and, at 32.8, just 0.5 pts/gm fewer.

So what does all this mean?  That's for you to decide.  But in Episode Part IV - A NEW HOKE, I will put the data together and attempt to find patterns and tendencies while spending some time pointing out some important potential error sources.

[Ed-S: This series has now reached the Bump Stage. Part I is here.]

"I have never considered leaving Oregon a mistake," [Borges] says. "I consider going to Cal a mistake."

That is a quote from a November 2004 Seattle Times article about former Bellotti assistants. The article is largely about Borges, and is a pretty good read.

Al Borges left UCLA for a $50,000 raise, a two-year contract, and the opportunity to be the OC for the first D1-A program that gave him a shot as an assistant (1982 season).  Born in Salinas, CA, Cal is pretty close to home for Al and must have had a special place in his heart.  That special place led him down a deep, dark tunnel.

Whatever his reasons, Borges headed back to Cal...but it didn't last long.  Tom Holmoe had been the HC at Cal since 1997.  He had been a pro football player, and had coached under Bill Walsh and George Seifert, winning a superbowl as the DB coach for the 49ers in 1994.  In 1996, he became the DC for Cal under HC Steve Mariucci.  Quite a coaching tree, that.

When Mariucci left for the 49ers in 1997, Holmoe got the HC job.  It appeared to be a perfect match.  But the Bears were bad news, and went 3-8, 5-6, 4-7*, and 3-8 the next four years, and won a total of nine Pac-10 games during that span.  And oh, the asterisk.  It turns out that in 1999 a teacher retroactively added football players to a class to keep them eligible, and the athletic department knew it.  Cal forfeited all four of their wins from the '99 season, got hit with five years probation, and lost nine scholarships over four years.

This was the mess Borges walked into.  This is where you have to wonder if $50,000 is enough.

The schedule was brutal--ranked 4th in SOS--and the team was bad.  Holmoe, a defensive coach, allowed a brutal 39.2 pts/gm (6th worst) and resigned after eight games--all losses.  The offense wasn't much better under Borges:

	Plays	%	Yards	% of Yds	Yds/Play
Run	387	47%	1345	35%	3.48
Pass	434	53%	2514	65%	5.79
Total	821		3859		4.70

Those numbers equated to 18.3 pts/gm (#90 nationally) and exactly one win in eleven attempts.  It is notable that the QB that season was third-year starter Kyle Boller, who posted a 110.3 rating and a 49.1% completion rate.  Tedford would turn Boller into a winner in 2002, but Borges was fired with the rest of the Cal staff.

Jobless, Borges was also obviously desperate, since he accepted an offer from Gerry DiNardo to be Indiana's OC in 2002.  Bellotti interviewed Borges for the Oregon OC job, but Borges took the offer from DiNardo, and left the west coast for the first time in his D1-A coaching career.

This is a long way from UCLA

After a stint at Vanderbilt, Gerry Dinardo turned around LSU.  Before DiNardo's hire in 1995, the Tigers had suffered six straight losing seasons and had not been ranked in the AP Poll since 1989.  DiNardo had immediate success, going to a bowl game in his first season where he beat  Michigan State--coached by Nick Saban.  '96 was even better--LSU finished the season ranked #12--and 1997 was magical, beating #1 Florida and thumping Notre Dame (after losing to them during the season) in the Independence Bowl.  But then he sucked ('98-99), and Saban took over.  We know how that ended.

After a year in the XFL as the HC of the Birmingham Thunderbolts, DiNardo took the HC job at Indiana in 2002, and he snapped-up Al Borges.  DiNardo was an offensive-minded coach, having been a QB, and an OC at Colorado (including when they won the National Championship in 1990).  He had been in college football coaching since 1975 when he got his start at the University of Maine.  But, Indiana.

The Hoosiers were bad, and Borges could do nothing about it.  In his first season as OC under DiNardo, Borges led the offense to 21.5 pts/gm (95th nationally) despite a pretty easy schedule (#52 SOS).  Here's the breakdown:

	Plays	%	Yards	% of Yds	Yds/Play
Run	427	49%	1413	32%	3.31
Pass	446	51%	3020	68%	6.77
Total	873		4433		5.08

Actually, one could make a good argument that Indiana's passing offense was better than it should have been.  The O-line was bad, and QB Gibran Hamdan--who had the unenviable task of replacing Antwaan Randle-El--spent a good chunk of the season on the turf.  Despite that, the Hoosiers managed over 3,000 passing yards and had two WRs with over 50 catches.  Courtney Roby had 59 recs and 1039 yards.

2003 brought in a new QB.  Matt LoVecchio had transferred from Notre Dame, and had to sit out in 2002.  As it turns out, there's a reason he left ND: he wasn't very good (he had actually transferred after a disastrous performance against Oregon State in the 2001 Fiesta Bowl).  LoVecchio threw 3 TDs and 9 INTs.  No, I did not get that backwards.  The Hoosiers would sink to 14.8 pts/gm and manage only two wins.  Here is the evidence, and it is damning:

	Plays	%	Yards	% of Yds	Yds/Play
Run	550	63%	1868	48%	3.40
Pass	328	37%	1998	52%	6.09
Total	878		3866		4.40

I'll go into more statistical analysis in Part III, but this was Borges' most run-heavy offense to date both in terms of percentage of plays and percetage of yards.  I guess that's what you do when your QB throws more INTs than TDs by a 3:1 ratio.  Courtney Roby's amazing-ness wasn't even enough to get the passing offense going, and he did not have a single TD catch (there were only four by anyone).  BenJarvus Green-Ellis was the starting RB, but split carries with two other guys, all of whom averaged over 4 yards/carry.  DiNardo would last one more season at Indiana.  Borges wouldn't stick around for it.

Tuberville, I'm going to mind-trick you into hiring me from Indiana

How that performance gets you a job at Auburn, I'm really not sure.  But that's what happened.  In 2004, Tommy Tuberville had to replace Hugh Nall.  After nearly being replaeced by Bobby Petrino in a secret coup (no joke, this is the SEC, after all), Tuberville had to make some changes, and Borges won the job.  Auburn was coming off a disappointing 8-5 season, and Tuberville was definitely in a win-or-go-home situation.

Well, 2004 was a magical season for the Tigers.  Scoring 32.1 pts/gm (#18 nationally, #1 SEC) in the SEC is a good accomplishment.  Coaching a QB to a 172.9 rating the year after he posted a 132.6?  WOW.  Jason Campbell was a talented player, and Borges seemed to get the best out of him.  Averaging an absurd 10.0 yds/att with a 69.6% completion rate and 20/7 TD/INT, Jason Campbell earned himself a first-round trip to the NFL.  Numbers:

	Plays	%	Yards	% of Yds	Yds/Play
Run	541	64%	2435	44%	4.50
Pass	306	36%	3086	56%	10.08
Total	847		5521		6.52

The Tigers went undefeated and beat VaTech in the Sugar Bowl, but that wasn't the National Championship game.  Unbeatens USC and Oklahoma played a boring game in which the Trojans dimantled the Sooners, and Auburn fans will forever bitch (I don't blame them).

Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown split carries and produced a combined 2,078 yards on the ground, and also pulled-in 55 catches for another 465 yards through the air.  The leading WR--Courtney Taylor--had just 43 catches for 737 yards.  It was Borges' most run-heavy offense (beating his 2003 total) by percetage of plays (not yards) and with good reason: he had two of the best RBs in the game.

The famed "Gulf Coast Offense" had the country buzzing about Borges, and his name was being thrown around for head coaching positions, including at San Diege State.  Yes, 2004 truly was a magical season for Auburn and Al.  The magic would never be repeated.

The 2005 Tigers had lost their QB and two starting RBs.  Their 2002 recruiting class had been strong (one 5* and nine 4*), but their fortune had been steadily declining since then, and the '04 class brought just four 4* players and 15 players with 2* or less.  There was still talent at Auburn, but Tuberville wasn't recruiting as well, and the talent was trending downward.

Starting QB Brandon Cox was a four-star recruit and had some skills.  Kenny Irons had transferred from South Carolina after growing frustrated with his role in Lou Holtz's offense, taking his four-star talent to Auburn.  Five-star Ben Obomanu was in his senior season.  And, while the offense took a step back, it wasn't bad at all--32.2 pts/gm actually bested the previous season's average (though the rank dropped to #30, still #1 SEC) and the Tigers went 9-3, with a shocking opening season loss to Georgia Tech, a 3-point squeaker to LSU, and a tough loss to Wisconsin in the Capital One Bowl.  Here are the numbers:

	Plays	%	Yards	% of Yds	Yds/Play
Run	478	59%	2338	47%	4.89
Pass	338	41%	2589	53%	7.66
Total	816		4927		6.04

This was an extremely successful running game.  In fact, it was a half-yard better per carry than the 2004 version, and Kenny Irons did most of the work, racking-up 1,293 yards and 13 TDs on 256 carries.  Brandon Cox finished with a 132.6 rating, and no receiver had more than 33 catches or 494 yards.  This was a good, balanced offense, but it didn't have Campbell, Williams, and Brown.  It was, for the second consecutive year, the #1 scoring offense in the SEC.  And for his good work without the departed stars, Borges was named the Rivals 2005 OC of the Year.

For whatever reason, things started to head south in 2006.  Certainly, recruiting was part of the problem, as Auburn's 2004 class was pretty thin (but the 2006 class would be very, very good).  Also, the strength of schedule jumped to #22 from #55.  There is no doubt that the O-line play suffered, but that alone doesn't explain a drop to 24.8 pts/gm (#56) when you are returning your starting QB and RB.  Here are the numbers:

	Plays	%	Yards	% of Yds	Yds/Play
Run	467	62%	1936	46%	4.15
Pass	281	38%	2245	54%	7.99
Total	748		4181		5.59

Brandon Cox did see his rating rise a bit to 138.7, and passing game improved in yards/att.  But the running game was not as strong, and three RBs got at least 50 carries, including freshman Ben Tate.  Courtney Taylor reprised his role as leading receiver with 54 catches for 704 yards and 2 TDs.

2007 would be Al's last at Auburn.  His fall from grace would include bad QB play (Cox's rating dropped to 116.0, mostly due to a 9/13 TD/INT).  With Kenny Irons gone to the NFL, Ben Tate took over as the lead RB.  Courtney Taylor had also been drafted.  The schedule got even tougher, moving up to #13.  It's worth noting that SOS probably underrates SEC teams, since they beat each other up so badly.  That said, a loss to USF in week two followed by a stunner against unranked Mississippi State were unforgiveable, even though the Tigers upset #4 Florida and beat hated rival Alabama.  Borges would resign before the Chick-Fil-A Bowl victory over Clemson.

	Plays	%	Yards	% of Yds	Yds/Play
Run	537	60%	2055	47%	3.83
Pass	356	40%	2317	53%	6.51
Total	893		4372		4.90

The problem for Borges wasn't just the drop in efficiency--the offense scored 24.2 pts/gm (#85)--but also the great defense.  Auburn allowed just 16.9 pts/gm, good for #6 in the country, and their defense kept them in every game save a 25 point loss to Georgia.  The offense had almost 900 plays and sputtered along at just 4.90 yds/play.  That is not good. The ground game had four rushers with over 200 yards, but limped along in yards/carry.  Rodgeriqus Smith led the receivers with 52 catches for 705 yards and 5 TDs, but there was no Robin to his Batman.

In short: Borges probably deserved to be fired.  He wouldn't be hired again until a guy named Brady Hoke called from San Diego State.