yes plz
2010 predictions
A look back at preseason expectations
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from http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/last-chance-looks-stupid-predict-record-2010
Some people predicted the regular season and the bowl game, some predicted just the regular season, and some predicted both. To deal with that, I split predictions into ones that didn't account for bowl games and ones that did. "8-4 + bowl win" type predictions were applied to both categories and so did predictions of 5-7 and below. That makes the losing predictions overrepresentative, but what can you do...
Exclusively regular season: 187 total
| Record Predicted | # of predictions | % of whole |
| 12-0 | 8 | 4.2 |
| 11-1 | 2 | 1.1 |
| 10-2 | 9 | 4.8 |
| 9-3 | 18 | 9.6 |
| 8-4 | 51 | 27.3 |
| 7-5 | 66 | 35.3 |
| 6-6 | 21 | 11.2 |
| 5-7 | 7 | 3.7 |
| 4-8 | 4 | 2.1 |
| 3-9 | 0 | 0 |
|
2-10 |
1 | .5 |
|
1-11 |
0 | 0 |
| 0-12 | 0 | 0 |
Regular season + bowl (if 6+ wins): 168 total
| Record Predicted | # of predictions | % of whole |
| 13-0 | 8 | 4.8 |
| 12-1 | 3 | 1.8 |
| 11-2 | 9 | 5.4 |
| 10-3 | 20 | 11.9 |
| 9-4 | 43 | 25.6 |
| 8-5 | 57 | 33.9 |
| 7-6 | 11 | 6.5 |
| 6-7 | 5 | 3.0 |
| 5-7 | 7 | 4.2 |
| 4-8 | 4 | 2.4 |
| 3-9 | 0 | 0 |
| 2-10 | 1 | .6 |
| 1-11 | 0 | 0 |
| 0-12 | 0 | 0 |
Things that interested me in Table 1:
- 47% of posters predicted 8-4 or better.
- About 62% of posters predicted either 7-5 or 8-4
- 81% predicted at least 7-5
Thing from Table 2:
-
Very few people predicted bowl losses.
Notes: I counted 13-0 and 6-7 as also being predictions of 12-0 and 6-6, respectively. The only prediction I didn't count was gordie bell's 0-13 since it's mathematically impossible. I might have miscounted once or twice, but cut me some slack. I'm not Mathlete, people.
Post Week 6: Yardage Analysis and Predictions + Score Predictor
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A quick recap of what week 6 was and what was predicted... Week 6 predictions found in previous diary here.
Prediction vs. Actual
UM offense: 553 yards vs. 377 yards = 68%
UM defense: 495 yards vs. 536 yards = 108%
While UM ended up short of their predicted yards based on ridiculous output to date, they were still able to gain more yards than Sparty typically gives up in a game. (377 vs. 350). On the flipside, the UM defense gave up nearly 100 yards more than Sparty typically gains. Needless to say, those are not good numbers. When you combine them with three turnovers, the likelyhood of a win is slim.
On a positive note, UM left 18 points on the field in the form of a dropped TD by Hemingway and two INTs thrown by DR in the end zone. In other words, UM was three mistakes from being dead even in this game.
My predictor came up with a final score of 40.5 for UM and 39 for Sparty. Not much analysis needed here as score is based entirely on yardage. On to week 7.
Charts?
Charts...
Because of the poor numbers, both on offense and defense, Michigan's yardage lead slid nearly 50 yards to Iowa. The Hawkeyes join OSU as the only teams predicted to outgain UM. At this point, Michigan still has a favorable matchup against Purdue and Penn State. The recent success of Illinois has really made that game quite a tossup.
As with last week, I added an offensive and defensive ranking based on yards. MSU moved up 2 spots to number 8 after the UM game. The game this week against Iowa should prove to be another huge test for the Michigan offense.
At this point, with the score predictor, I'm inclined to throw away the "hybrid 2009/2010" stats. We have just edged past the halfway point of the regular season and teams have started to display an identity. As many yards as UM is putting up this year, they just haven't scored as much. It is definitely taking UM more yards to score the same amount of points. Because of the special teams woes [Ed: and bad defense] UM is finding itself in bad field position game-after-game.
Predictors...
Yards:
UM - 407
Iowa - 454
Score:
UM - 28
Iowa - 35
