chance of bowl: 13.6%
2010 ohio state
(Sorry for the double whammy, I've been working on these for a couple weeks and now they're done.)
Part two of the double feature. This should be a little more positive than the defense UFR, if only because the offense doesn’t consist of Martin, Roh, and RVB, then true freshman, walk-ons, and duct tape. I planned to get all philosophical about the defense, and ended up talking about coaching change and scheme. Why? Because I just love watching Michigan football. I watched the 2009 Michigan/Illinois game on Big Ten Classics before the season started. I told my wife “I must be crazy, because I know they’re going to lose this game and I’m watching anyway.” So call me crazy, but I want to watch this group of kids work their butts off and do crazy stuff on offense and hopefully win some games.
Onto the festivities.
Mercy. Tate comes back in, manages one more good drive, but Michigan has 2 TODs and a punt.
So, big-picture, waxing philosophical stuff yet?
The first two drives Michigan rolled down the field. Michigan did stuff like this:
Dear OSU, you are about to get 0wn3d.
Everybody got somebody? Good.
Bye Michael! Let us know if there’s anyone out there.
Stiff arm? Stiff arm.
The only reason they didn’t get points was because of FG kicking (or lack thereof). Then a bad punt, and they still scored a TD. Then OSU returned a kick for a TD, Roundtree never got the butter off his gloves and Denard hurt his hand. They had to play a perfect game and didn’t. I still don’t care. If OSU and Wisconsin are road-graders, this team is fireworks. And I’d rather watch fireworks than road construction any day.
Speaking of fireworks, how about some dilithium?
Damn, I wish that had been the TD. I also wish ABC hadn’t missed the start of that play.
Honestly, no. Whatever I say will be spun into a constant “Fire the coach/keep the coach” argument, so I’ll just shut up. We saw some new plays, they moved the ball well against an established defense, lots of great individual effort, and lots of hope for next year. Yes, they stalled out in the second half, with an injured Denard or non-Superman Tate. Yes, Denard was 8/18 for 87 yards. Pick your stat, it wasn’t the greatest game of the year. I still say “Great job, kids” and proudly applaud my team for leaving it all on the field. Hail to the victors valiant, hail to the conquering heroes, hail, hail, to Michigan, the leaders and best!
(Misopogon, if you can fix my tables, I'd appreciate it)
Alright class, I’m going to be your substitute teacher for the day, since Mr. Cook is taking some well-needed R & R. Consider this my Christmas present to you all, as I jump on the grenade that was the Ohio State game for the second year running.
Reviewing this game is like being Billy Pilgrim in Slaughterhouse Five looked at life, or like the plot of Lost ended up: the end is pre-determined because you’ve lived through it, and you are powerless to change it. You know what’s coming, but you have to sit through it anyway. I honestly didn’t really go into this game with a realistic expectation of victory. The team is/was too young, too small, too slow. Greater upsets have happened, but when I heard that Hagerup would be out, I just put my feet up to cheer for good plays and progress. Were there any? Let’s see. Michigan kicks off.
Mercy. OSU runs out the clock and punts twice. I don't think there's anything more to be gained by charting the rest of this.
Great, I’ve got to do Brian’s internal monologue now?
Yes, now make with the chart
There will be no chart for the following reasons: 1. Just doing the play chart is hard enough. Give Brian more money for doing this. 2. Since the chart is subjective, my opinion on people’s performance is largely worthless to compare to anything. I think it was net positive for tackling, probably slightly negative for coverage, RPS slightly negative, with Demens, Kovacs, Avery, Roh and Gordon being mentioned most often.
Alright then, do you have any opinion on coaches, scheme, players or anything?
I think that except for the OSU drive in the second quarter where OSU went hurry-up and the defense seemed to scramble around, they really played pretty solid. I mean, one kickoff for touchdown, one touchdown from a shanked punt, and maybe two blown coverages are the majority of the points. Comparing OSU’s defense to Michigan’s has some validity. I got to the point that I was typing in 3-4 before even starting to watch the play. Aside from goalline, there were only a few instances where OSU played anything other than base 3-4, with one LB standing on the line strongside, and one LB lined up over the slot receiver. That, compared to what Michigan did/does, says a lot. While I won’t go so far as to say that the 3-3-5 can’t work in the Big Ten, I will say that there seems to be a lot to learn to run it, and that would be hard for young players to pick up. Now, I don’t know if a simple 4-3 cover 2 would be effective, simply because you have to have the players to put into positions. I’ll give the coaching staff the benefit of the doubt and assume that they looked at the talent on the roster, the available spots for the defense, and decided that trying to keep the opposing offense guessing is/was a key to victory.
Wow, that was long. So, fire GERG or what?
I may have an opinion on that, but ultimately it’s pointless to argue about it, since I don’t have a vote. The defense held OSU to 3-and-outs to start the game and ended three drives with field goals. Look, it’s not world-beating, but it’s a far cry from the Illinois game already. I’m maybe not excited, but maybe cautiously optimistic?
+1’s for everyone!
Though we're not one of them, being one of the few teams that had to play all three Big Ten 2010 Champions, and since we generally hate all three, I figured Michigan bloggers might be in a good position to adjudicate the mess atop our conference this year.
Base comparisons are as follows. I would appreciate any comments, and would like to change it up based on your opinions.
|Loss||6-37 @ Iowa (-2)||18-31 @ Wis.||24-34 @ MSU|
|Ohio State's loss to Wisconsin was by more, but Wisconsin won the turnover battle by 3 and still lost to Michigan State by 10. They're pretty much even. Michigan State got beat much worse (-1) by a worse team (-1)|
|BCS OOC||34-31 ND||36-24 Miami (+1)||20-19 ASU (-1)|
|Notre Dame and Miami are both erratic, 7-5 teams against tough schedules but Ohio State didn't make it close, while MSU needed a fake punt conversion (that was covered!) to beat ND. I count both of those as better than ASU, who will finish 5-7 most likely a tough (-1) to Wisconsin, though they get the benefit of the doubt next close one.|
|Big Ten 1||34-24 Wis (+1)||20-17 @ Iowa (-1)||31-18 OSU (+1)|
|The Iowa game is Ohio State's biggest win, and it wasn't that great of a win -- as close as the 3-point spread looks (-1). MSU/Wis and OSU/Wis were dominating wins over Top 10 teams. (+1)|
|MICHIGAN||34-17 @ Mich||37-7 Mich||48-28 @ Mich (+1)|
|Easiest comparison to make. Ohio State and Michigan State both dominated thanks to Michigan mistakes, while Wisconsin made its trip to Ann Arbor a bloody affair (+1) from kickoff.|
|Purdue||35-31 Purdue (-1)||49-0 Purdue (+1)||34-13 @ Purdue|
|Ohio State murdered (+1), Wisconsin held serve, Michigan State (-1) needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat a worse Purdue team than either other one played|
|PSU/Iowa||28-22 @ Penn St||38-14 Penn St||31-30 @ Iowa|
|Iowa's a better 7-5 team than Penn State, but the close road win didn't tell us much. Ohio State got the Lions at home when they were worse, but they did better. 0s all around.|
|Minn||31-8 Minn||52-10 @ Minn (+1)||41-23 Minn|
|Pasting, bigger pasting on the road (+1), pasting.|
|Illini/NW||26-6 Illini||24-13 @ Illini||70-23 NW (+1)|
|Illinois is better than Northwestern. MSU came on late but came on. Ohio State made it a lot closer. But Wisconsin's 70-point finale against a worse Northwestern team (+1) is more impressive.|
|Ind/NW||35-27 @ NW (+1)||38-10 Ind.||83-20 Ind. (+1)|
|MSU looked to lose to Northwestern right up until the end, but they're a much better team than Indiana so (+1). Ohio State did what it was supposed to, but Wisconsin put up 83 (+1)|
|OOC||38-14 WMU||45-7 Marshall||41-21 @ UNLV|
|Pasting, pasting, slightly worse pasting but on the road.|
|OOC||30-17 Fl.Atl (-1)||43-7 Ohio||27-14 SJSt. (-1)|
|FL-Int. kind of made it close (-1) and so did SJ State (-1) while OSU rolled over Ohio|
|TomatoCan||45-7 N.Colo||73-20 EMU||70-3 Austin Peay|
|Doesn't count -- any FBS team but EMU might give Ohio State a|
It's not a perfect line-up, but it gets the job done, giving us some close and semi-close apples and oranges to compare. The +'s and -'s are simply numeric comparisons for how the teams did against each other on that line, i.e. they say how much each team disguished itself from its two conference competitors in that comparable.
You can argue a lot of my conclusions.
So Michigan State's resume, lined up as best as I can, is substantially behind that of Ohio State and Wisconsin. I wouldn't feel bad about ranking them several slots behind the other two if there are some other 1-loss teams. Remember above where I said Wisconsin gets the benefit of the doubt? There you are. I'd put them slightly over Ohio State, whom they defeated. The late-season murderous rampage worked.
Okay, bloggers. Fisk away.