the Proverbial Hot Seat

Beilein's seat is declared hot here:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/14186981/parrish-coache...

Fair or not?  Discuss.

If I recall correctly he was hired just after the '07 season.  Benzing aside, this recruiting class looks really weak in retrospect, at least by Big Ten standards:

http://rivals.yahoo.com/michigan/basketball/recruiting/commitments/2008/...

Of course, I realize that Cronin is unavailable.  I'm not sure he was destined to be future All-American, though.  As well, I think Benzing was an administrative long shot.

I also don't know much about recruiting cycles for basketball.  Because of timing issues, it might not be fair to judge that class too harshly.

He has done better since then, and I'd be inclined to give him more time (two seasons at least).  He's more of a system coach than most and he might need a full roster of "his guys."

Yes, the dual title is a shout-out to “Rocky and Bowinkle”.

Although this post should be totally unnecessary, idiocy abounds and the madness must be stopped.  Short of writing personal checks to players (or some equivalently massive set of rule violations), Rich Rodriguez WILL NOT BE FIRED by season’s end.  He will live to fight another day and to coach another year in Ann Arbor no matter what happens on the field this season.

I was listening to WTKA recently and they had some airhead running his mouth about how RR is on the “hot seat” this year, that he needs to have a winning record, etc.  I got ticked by his obvious ignorance of what exactly constitutes the “hot seat” and his general lack of analysis, betraying a lack of understanding of the state of M Football.  But I dismissed it for what it was:  talk radio.  They’ve gotta talk about something to justify their existence.  And the more simplistic, inane, and agitating, the better.

Then Brian linked a Phil Steele article from the Orlando Sentinel in which Phil lists RR as the #7 coach in I-A (FBS) on the “hot seat” and I couldn’t take it anymore.

FIRST of all, let’s start with the definition of the euphemism “hot seat”.  In sports, “on the hot seat” means “you’re about to get fired unless you produce like now.”  The last word in that sentence is where Phil (and others) must be getting confused.  It’s not “yesterday” or “last year”, because that’s “you WERE fired.”  It’s not “in the next 3-5 years”, because that’s a seat that’s just not hot.  Hot Seat  =  NOW … or else.

SECOND, let’s look at what Phil said about RR. 

· Phil expects M to be an underdog in 7 games.  By implication, that means Michigan would be a favorite in 5 games.  No one in Wolverine Nation would be thrilled by a 5-7 finish.  But RR won’t get fired over it either.  Why?  Because Michigan AD, Bill Martin, is a patient man.  Bill knows that his football coach is only in his second year of getting his players and his system in place.  Bill waited through 5 years of Tommy Amaker, he’ll certainly wait through 3-5 years of RR. 

· Phil thinks RR will get us to a decent bowl and make major strides just like he did in his 2^nd year at West Virginia.  We would need to go 6-6 to go to any kind of bowl, 8-4 to go to a “decent bowl”, as Phil says.  Why would that get RR fired?  That sounds like the kind of progress everyone is hoping for.

· Phil thinks that a lot Michigan alumni mistakenly assume that RR’s spread offense is a pass-first, run-second scheme (like, who exactly, Phil?).  Even if that were true, it would have exactly ZERO effect on RR being fired this season.

I'm sorry, Phil.  Why exactly is RR in your "hot seat"?

THIRD, even a major catastrophe on the field this season would not result in RR being fired.  Hypothetically, let’s envision Michigan going 0-12 this year.  That means we lose to Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Indiana, and Delaware State all at home.  Let’s just focus on those four games.  Imagine the plausible scenarios by which we would accomplish this level of devastation.  Here’s what comes to mind:

· Injuries to every starter AND Nick Sheridan and David Cone and … (Zoltan can play QB and we still beat Delaware State)

· Everyone who returns kicks/punts fumbling the ball (cf. the 2008 Wisconsin game)

· Coaches using a Ouija board to decide what plays to call

· Opponents discovering kryptonite to neutralize Zoltan’s super powers

· Pre-game F-16’s piloted by Bucknuts crashing into the Michigan bench kamikaze-style

<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> 

Last year, we beat Miami Ohio, the moral equivalent of Delaware State.  Last year, we beat Wisconsin after turning the ball over 5 times in the first half.  Last year, Nick Sheridan (bless his heart) led us to victory ON THE ROAD against Minnesota.  Last year, we had the worst football team I’ve ever seen, and we still won 3 games.

There’s no way we do any worse than last year.  Everyone on the roster has as much (true freshmen) or more (everyone else) experience as last year’s team.  Which means we make some (or “significant” according to Phil Steele) improvement this year (somewhere between 4-8 and 8-4).  Which means RR will not be fired this year.  Which means RR is in no way on “the hot seat” this year.

So give it a rest, folks.

And don’t start talking about those Michigan fans who blindly defend RR at all costs.  I’m not saying he’s the second-coming.  Heck, we’re probably looking at a 6-6 season.  I’m just saying there’s no plausible on-the-field scenario by which he gets fired by season’s end.  Get used to the idea that RR will be our coach for 2009, 2010, and probably at least 2011 before he’s at risk of being fired.  Like I said, Bill Martin is a patient man, even if you’re not.  Use your heads and cool your jets.

And GO BLUE!