Michigan

Per ESPN Travis Williams has committed to Michigan, but Rivals has nothing to say on the subject and Scout only suggests that he has made his mind, if he has committed what does everyone think about this kid?

Scout Link (Info in Header)
http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=2&c=860336&ssf=1&RequestedURL=htt...

ESPN Link
http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/recruiting/tracker/school?schoolId=130&se...

Trent to the Bengals with the 179th overall pick. 6th pick in the 6th round.

It says on ESPN, according to thebigspur.com, that Michigan is on top of Cassius Mcdowell's list. I watched his highlight vid and he looks like a damn good RB. He's got dreads too so you know he's fast. Maybe not D Rob fast, but is anyone really that fast? Anyways, D Rob with dreads and now possibly Cassius with dreads. I think it's awesome that we could possibly have an all dreads backfield.

Now we are looking stacked at WR and RB with three (I'll just count Cassius for now, even though he's not really a commit) 2010 commits for each. I know we were looking at Lattimore, but he looks unlikely, but are we still able to sign more players at either position?

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/recruiting/tracker/player?page=onthetrail&...

Being draft day, and how much attention we pay to recruiting on this site, I was curious to at least subjectively explore the correlation between a recruits ranking and his chances to be an "impact" player. So looking back at the Rivals Top 100 from 2006 on this draft weekend. A preliminary list (juniors)

Drafted players (1st Day)
1 Percy Harvin
2 Andre Smith
3 Chris Wells
6 Matt Stafford
43 LeSean McCoy
73 Knowshon Moreno
92 Josh Freeman

As these players are juniors I'll include what I'd call impact players (Please point out omissions)

4 Gerald McCoy
8 CJ Spiller
12 Myron Rolle
13 Brandon Spikes
15 Brandon Graham
16 Taylor Mays
22 Tim Tebow
68 Jake Locker

Contributors
50 Charles Scott
61 Jevan Snead

I really don't watch enough out-of-conference games to evaluate the lineman and most of the defensive players on the list for now.

Michigan's 2006 Top 100 players
15 Brandon Graham
26 Stephen Schilling
39 Carlos Brown
45 Jonas Mouton
64 Justin Boren
91 Adam Patterson
93 Greg Matthews

At first look, I thought with 7 top 100 players, we would see more impact from this bumper crop, but 1 of 7 seems to match the overall hit rate at this point for the class. Comparing to matriculated classes...

2005
1 Derrick Williams
2 Patrick Turner
3 Eugene Monroe
5 Rey Maualuga
7 Mark Sanchez
10 Jonathan Stewart
12 Kenneth Phillips
18 DeSean Jackson
19 Justin King
20 Alex Boone
23 Darren McFadden
29 Mohammed Massaquoi
34 Roy Miller
45 Mario Manningham
48 Michael Oher
53 Brian Cushing
56 Travis Beckum
57 Jamaal Charles
59 Ricky Jean-Francois
62 Curtis Lofton
64 Reggie Smith (3rd Rd Pick)
68 Malcolm Kelly
78 Everette Brown
90 Rashard Mendenhall
96 Terrance Taylor (Late Round Draft Pick?)

This 2005 class seems loaded, and still only 25%

2004
1 Adrian Peterson
2 Ted Ginn, Jr
3 Early Doucet
5 Keith Rivers
8 Derrick Harvey
13 Chad Henne
18 Franklin Okam (5th Round)
19 Fred Davis
28 Marshawn Lynch
31 Marcus Freeman
36 Thomas Brown (6th Round)
37 Calvin Johnson
44 Dwayne Jarrett
47 Glenn Dorsey
50 Stephen McGee
61 Lawrence Timmons
78 Brian Brohm
79 Tony Temple

2003
1 Ernie Sims
2 Reggie Bush
4 Andre Caldwell
6 Prescott Burgess
10 Greg Olsen
14 Lamarr Woodley
17 Chad Jackson
20 Robert Meachem
23 Victor Abiamiri
25 Jarvis Moss
26 Chris Leak
28 Michael Bush
30 Steve Smith
39 Shawn Crable
40 Antonio Cromartie
48 Vernon Davis
54 Maurice Drew
57 Dennis Dixon
60 Michael Griffin
61 Reggie Nelson
68 Sedrick Ellis
69 Lawrence Jackson
79 Jamarcus Russell
81 Tavares Gooden
87 Laron Landry
90 Thomas Williams (5th Round Pick)
91 Sam Baker
96 Ryan Mundy (Gulp)

From the albeit small sample it seems like recent history suggests that 1 in 4 of Rivals Top 100 products will be nationally recognized contributors or draft-worthy. Here's hoping Matthews or Schilling can step-up into that status to match or exceed what seems to be the population mean. Going through this exercise really did solidify for me the term "Lottery tickets" when used with scholarships.

(And if you're curious about our Top 100 recruits from other classes the list is below)

2009
26 William Campbell
35 Justin Turner

2008
41 Darryl Stonum
44 Boubacar Cissoko
49 Dann O'Neill

2007
4 Ryan Mallett
25 Donovan Warren
91 Toney Clemons

2005 Michigan Class
22 Kevin Grady
37 Marques Slocum
45 Mario Manningham
49 Antonio Bass
83 Cory Zirbel
96 Terrance Taylor

2004 Michigan Class
13 Chad Henne
40 Tim Jamison
80 Alex Mitchell
96 Brett Gallimore
98 Doug Dutch

2003
6 Prescott Burgess
14 Lamarr Woodley
39 Shawn Crable
71 Clay Richard
89 Jim Presley
96 Ryan Mundy

I know that Michigan has a few walkons coming next year, some from Western Michigan, at least one from the Chicago area. Is there anything new on them? Were any early enrollees?

Quarterback - MODERATE. With Devin Gardner's commit, one more QB is needed.

Running back - MODERATE. Grady, Brown and Minor will all be gone next year. Michigan will need 2 or 3 to compliment Cox, Shaw, Toussaint, and Smith.

Power back - LOW. If Hopkins stays committed then Michigan may not need another. However, another could not hurt.

Outside Wide Receiver - LOW. Michigan already has 4 outside Wide Receiver commits in the 2010 class.

Slot Receiver - LOW. With Drake's commitment, Michigan may only need to take one or possibly two. Michigan has plenty of depth at slot.

Tight End - LOW. Michigan has plenty of depth at TE. However I can see Michigan signing one or possibly two.

Offensive Linemen - MODERATE. Always take 3.

Defensive Tackle - HIGH. With Martin and Campbell the only real options at DT, Michigan needs at least 2 to give solid depth.

Defensive End - MODERATE. Michigan signed 2 in the 2009 class, however Michigan is still pretty thin at DE. I see Michigan taking 2 in the 2010 class, maybe 3.

Linebacker - MODERATE/HIGH. With more and more players being switched to linebacker Michigan may only need two linebackers in the 2010 class. They may need more if the players recently switched don't pan out. Michigan needs a TRUE Middle linebacker.

Defensive Back - HIGH. Michigan's thinnest position. I see Michigan taking at least 4, if not more. Robinson committed, but Michigan is going to need way more if they hope to build solid depth at DB.

Kicker/Punter - MODERATE. Gibbons is signed. However Mesko will be gone soon. Michigan needs to take at least 1.