will johnson

FORMATION NOTES: The UFR Glossary is here and you may want to brush up because DeBoer made me bring out rare formations like a true under-center Single-Wing, and weird notations like Z->Y means the WR and TE have switches spots. This is the Go Go setup (aka Single-Wing RB) that UNLV was running way back in September.

I put covered players in parentheses, but Washington also managed to get away with some illegal formations where nobody was covered, in which case I just put a question mark in there, e.g. Go Go Right (?).

"Hide H" was a trick where Rome Odunze hid out at tight end and got M to align in a mismatch. That's him trying not to be noticed as the H-back on the top of the formation (where all the Michigan players are pointing).

I'm using "Flex" for a TE split out wide for a 2x2 set. "Demi" means the TE isn't tight but neither is he in the slot (see #37 on the left). Also we were treated to a skycam version of this game, so I can provide a few canonical examples of terms we're often flinging around, and some new ones. Michigan in the above is in an G front, which means the nose is head up over the guard. Sometimes he was over the tackle, which I call Wide, where the DT is lined up over a tackle.

Letters or numbers (A, AA, 0) in the defensive front that means they've added LBs on the line of scrimmage in that alignment (A gap, both A gaps, head up on the center, etc). Another nuance I can capture with greater accuracy than usual is the difference between Kirby Smart's "Mint" front and a true 404 where the DL are heads up on the tackles—I think a lot of the Tites I charted this year were actually Mint. Michigan got creative too. This is "Crable":

I'll also try to note in the text when Michigan used sim pressures, since that's going to be relevant.

[After THE JUMP: Winning a natty.]

Previously: Offense.

DEFENSIVE END

A paring of Derrick Moore and Josiah Stewart might not be particularly far off the legendary Hutchinson-Ojabo pairing from 2021. Stewart and Moore were already Michigan's top edge guys per PFF, and they were more or less indistinguishable from the departed Braiden McGregor and Jaylen Harrell in UFR grading.

Neither was exactly a star in 2023, but it's not hard to extrapolate them from very good rotation players into stars with another year of development They had pass rush win rates of 17% (Stewart) and 15% (Moore), which was good for 18th and 43rd, respectively, amongst 251 P5 edges with at least 100 snaps. Meanwhile, you may remember some grousing in this space about Stewart not holding the edge in a couple early games but once he got that figured out he was an excellent run defender.

Also: the way Michigan ran its pass rush last year probably put a cap on just how highly they could grade out. Guys like Chop Robinson and Bralen Trice are sent off the edge over and over; Michigan played a ton of games up front to take advantage of their DT's rush and a lot of snaps had DEs diving inside in ways that aren't likely to get an individual pass rush win but could, say, lead to six sacks of Jalen Milroe.

Moore in particular has a flight path that makes you expect a first round draft selection after 2024: highly touted recruit, contributes as true freshman, basically interchangeable with a draftable senior as a true sophomore, ignition time. Stewart will be entering year four and probably doesn't have the ceiling Moore does but he doesn't have to get a whole lot better to vie for All-American-level output.

The main question is depth. There is no shame in getting locked behind Michigan's elite foursome last year but it does mean we have vanishingly little data on any of the guys vying for rotation snaps been Moore and Stewart. TJ Guy did look solid in about 80 garbage time snaps a year ago.

If the main problem here is "who is the backup anchor" I think it'll be okay.

[After THE JUMP: mmmm DTs]

Bang, bang. Donovan Edwards put up two 40 yard touchdowns on Michigan's first two drives, and they were more or less the same thing: duo that sucks in Washington defenders followed by Edwards being insanely explosive. Number one:

There was an undercurrent of sardonic amusement amongst the twitterati after this one because it felt like Edwards missed the hole and only got to it by luck after making a mistake, but this is only a touchdown because Edwards initially presses the A gap. That action sucks in three different defenders and when Edwards changes direction, it's over. This is all I want from Donovan Edwards: change direction. If he does that he wins because no one is as explosive as he is.

Number two is all of the gaps (all of the gaps):

That's two TEs, a bonus OL, and Cornelius Johnson. If Zak Zinter was healthy I guarantee you Cornelius Johnson would not be on the field.

Washington does not know what the hell to do with this. They've clearly prepped for the Big Big Boys; all 11 defenders are within six yards of the LOS. But they do not see this and scout team only gets you so far. Edwards again presses a gap he is not going in. The LB level bites on the initial action, and when Edwards cuts back there's nothing but daylight.

There's a fair chance that Edwards scores even if the backside linebacker doesn't fling himself into the line, because that is a truck lane.

These two runs combine with the Penn State explosive to indicate a path forward for Edwards at Michigan if he does decide to return. Yeah, run at a friendly butt. Then do something else. Touchdown. Hooray.

[After THE JUMP: more stuff]