weekly six

Taken moments after the final person complained about Funchess switching to #1[Upchurch]

The Four Factors*

	Field Position	Bonus Yards	Conversion Rate	Red Zone
Michigan	29.0 pts	5.9 yds/play	80%	7.0 pts/trip
App St	19.3	0.7	25%	N/A

Total domination of a weaker opponent in every category. Michigan’s huge advantage in field position is partially driven by starting a drive with an extra point after Gedeon’s blocked punt return**. But even without that play, it was a large field position advantage, especially considering Michigan didn’t force any turnovers.

The 25% conversion rate allowed is significantly better than any number from last season. Last year’s opener was Michigan’s best game when they allowed CMU 47% conversions. Both bonus yards and bonus yards allowed were better than any numbers posted during the 2013 season.

*A quick refresh:

Field Position is expected points an average team will score given the starting field position over the course of the game. Defensive/special teams touchdowns count as 7 points.

Bonus Yards are any yards gained beyond the first down yardline, a measure of offensive explosiveness. >3 ypp is elite offensively, <2 is elite defensively

Conversion Rate is first downs gains divided by first downs started, a measure of an offense’s ability to move the chains consistently. >80%  is elite offensively and <65% is elite defensively.

Red Zone is points per red zone trip. >5.7 is elite offensively and <4.3 is elite defensively. This is the weakest predictor of the four factors.

All factors except field position are only measured on competitive series (all series in the first half and any second half series that starts or ends within 15 points).

**I know some people don’t like that I include return TD’s in this number but I think if you are going to count it if he gets tackled at the 1, it doesn’t make sense to exclude it if he makes it all the way in.

Individual Performances

Devin Gardner: +13.3 expected points, +26% win percent added

Derrick Green: +2.9, +4% (+9.3 including second half)

De’Veon Smith: +7.4, +7% (+9.8 including second half)

Devin Funchess: +9.2, +18% on 8 targets

None of these numbers are opponent adjusted yet. De’Veon Smith is the highest non-adjusted total for a Michigan running back since Fitzgerald Toussaint added 9.4 points of value against Purdue in 2011.

[Jump, game chart and such]