turnovers ack

CLICK HERE for Game Recap from Kristy McNeil and other pertinent information.

What just happened (TL;DR): Michigan started slow and sloppy, finding themselves down 2-0. Towards the end of the first, they started to gain some momentum, scoring one before intermission. In the second, they came out flying and rattled off five goals in less than eight minutes. The sloppiness returned, forcing them to hold on into the late third, before finally finishing it 7-4. Opponent caveats, the offense looked strong, while the defense and goaltending left a bit to be desired at times.

FINAL CORSI NUMBERS (www.collegehockeynews.com)

Forward Notes.

-Michigan dominated attempts in the offensive zone; they just swarmed Lindenwood, especially after the opening 10-15 minutes. They look like they will be able to create plenty of chances. Obviously, there are opponent caveats to be considered, but holy fish these numbers are ridiculous.

-We’ll see how the lines pan out once Nazar returns. Mackie and Fantilli are going to be awesome to watch all year. Gavin Brindley looked fun tonight, too. Jackson Hallum is super fast and looked like he was trying to make plays for others, too. Eric Ciccolini got a goal, which was awesome after missing last year. Rutger McGroarty is going to be good, especially around the net. We’ll see who can get back and play some defense, though.

Defense Notes.

-Oof. Numbers-wise, they were mostly fine…aside from the House Shots Allowed. However, there were a number of just very goofy turnovers and sloppy plays, especially in their own zone. All of the goals could have been cleaned up with better defense. There is plenty to figure out on the backend.

-Jay Keranen played a lot more than I was expecting, especially on the penalty kill. Seamus Casey looks fun going forward, but he has some work to do in his own zone. Steve Holtz was good and times and awful at other times. Luke Hughes looked like he was pressing offensively. In the press box, we debated about who Michigan will go to in Shutdown Times. My first thought might be Truscott and Pehrson. We’ll see.

[Barron/MGoBlog]

If you’ve been reading the site for a long time you’ll remember Seth’s “Decimated Defense” series, an excellent set of posts that painstakingly detailed why Michigan’s defense was so awful circa 2009. If you’ve been watching hockey the past few seasons, something similar may have crossed your mind.

David Nasternak is our jack-of-all-trades behind the scenes, and he’s also a huge hockey fan. He asked if I’d be interested in some data he was pulling together on power play goals against, odd-man rushes, and turnovers that led directly to goals. Naturally I was; Michigan’s defense isn’t quite Decimated Defense-level bad, but I could probably write a series of posts about the past four years and no one would bat an eye if I titled them “Disappointing Defense.”

The eye test, beloved by scouts for generations, tells us that Michigan’s defense has again been lacking in 2015-16. Thanks to the data David has compiled and some additional team-level stats from College Hockey Inc. we can try and see where the breakdowns are coming from on an otherwise solid team.

[After THE JUMP: it wouldn’t be MGoBlog without charts]

Of the totally surreal and unnecessary things that could ever happen, Denard Robinson issuing an apology for his play against Notre Dame ranks right up there with Ryan Van Bergen claiming fault for the 2010 defense. Not so much that he took responsibility—I wrote in my HTTV article that personal culpability is one the hallmarks of this team—but that watching from above I felt like he wasn't entirely at fault.

Part of that was the drunk dude in my section yelling "awwww c'mon!" at Denard, to which I felt responsibility to point out things like "play-action out of the I-form" or "Schofield just got beat bad." Part of it to was my own culpability for last week's article being all "hey Denard can pass and Borges is doing an incredible job!" So in the mea culpa spirit of the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur (pretty much our Christmas) which begins tonight, I admit I have sinned, and that I'm not quite sure who sinned on all of our six turnovers this week. Let's find out where responsibility lies in this six-play al chet, using a combination of Seth's pathetic attempts at UFR-ing, with a bonus chart of culpability.

1. For the sin we have committed against you by trying to get too cute with Vincent Smith, who is not Tom Brady

When Michigan tried this against Minnesota it was from 30 yards out, and against Minnesota. It did get a guy open in the end zone, and was set up a little bit I believe by some pitch plays earlier. However leaving Te'o unblocked versus a tiny RB is a risk, but Smith has shown in games (and presumably many more times in practice) that he can throw the ball accurately enough.

What I really hated about this play call is there was no reason to get cute. This was meant to be a dagger play, just like the fake dive on 4th and 1 vs. Michigan State was meant to be the dagger in the trash storm game.

Borges likes his daggers. When Brian queried my UFR database on Michigan passing from Ace 3TE sets, I found the Funchess 30-yard (PA TE corner) and Gardner (Waggle) TDs, plus a PA dumpoff for good yards (until it was fumbled) against SD State last year. Daggers. Thing is about the grab-bag and dagger offense is that it doesn't adjust for things that are working, and until that point the offense was working. When Pompey backed out of Rome because he didn't have the troops to defend it, Caesar didn't say "oh waitaminute, this is a trap, I'm gonna go attack the Barbary Coast—ha ha they'll never suspect!" He walked into damn Rome.

Chart of culpability: Borges x2, ND Te'o is that good, Smith isn't Joe Montana

Mitigating Mitzvah: Jake Ryan sticks a receiver after he gains just 1 yard on 3rd and 4 from the ND37 to force a punt. ND shanks the punt.

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After the jump, five plays more depressing than using a day off of work to fast and contemplate what a terrible person you've been all year.