triple option

Air Force's ability to consistently get the edge on Michigan's defense was the most frustrating thing about Saturday's game, and many theories have been proffered as to what was supposed to be happening, why it wasn't, and why we will or will not die on the rest of the schedule.

I'm of the opinion that Michigan's scheme was predictable and that as soon as Air Force started blocking Kovacs they were out of ideas.

Here's Air Force's first play of the second half. Denard Robinson's just gone 58 yards to put M up 21-10 and a poor decision by a Falcon player to fall on a squibbed kickoff sets the Falcons up on their own 12 yard line. Michigan has just sat in the locker room for 20 minutes getting coached up; Air Force comes out and runs the same triple option they've been running all game.

It does not go well.

Okay: I called this "near half-flex" for Air  Force. Michigan is in their 4-4 under, which I know is actually shifted towards the nominal strength of the formation and so is technically an over. Michigan aligns to field, not strength—so they would flip their formation if it was on the other hash.

Against Air Force, Michigan brought Gordon down into the box and made their formation basically symmetrical. Mattison:

Jake and Thomas were the exact same position in our scheme. A lot of people play the same scheme.

Kovacs is playing center field. Earlier in the game, he was not getting blocked and doing Kovacs things. Like this:

Air Force was all like Eff that to the A and started blocking him. That took out Michigan's edge defender and opened up the corner. Michigan didn't really adjust.

Air Force's "triple" option" wasn't really that. They occasionally ran the dive to keep the defense honest but when they did that the QB just turned around and give it, no read. Here they're running the option with the token dive fake. Already in the above frame, bad things are happening.

Will Campbell(1) is tackling an Air Force lineman who's trying to get out on Bolden. He'll succeed at this, allowing Bolden to flow freely for the rest of the play, but he'll pick up a second defensive holding call doing so. On the edge, Gordon(2) is the optioned guy. Michigan is playing him to pitch like they have been all game. Kovacs(3), is the destination of the flexback.

In a second or two, Michigan is going to eat cut blocks:

Thanks for participating, Clark and Morgan, but you've been elimidated. Try again next play. Meanwhile, downfield…

…the ref is ANGAR at Campbell and Jordan Kovacs is decidedly not coming up to stop the pitch.

Why is Kovacs taking that angle? Why is he not attacking the run? That's an eligible receiver he is in man coverage on. He's got no one behind him, and there are two other receivers going vertical. He has to respect this guy as a receiver, or he could give up an 88-yard touchdown.

At this point it's pretty obvious, but Kovacs doesn't have good options.

Gordon forces the pitch. Michigan has Bolden ready to hit the QB if necessary, but he doesn't know that, and that's not the scheme.

The scheme is getting cut to the ground 13 yards downfield.

Presenting yet another ten yard run on a pitch. WSG Will Campbell holding flag.

Video:

[After THE JUMP: Air Force twists its mustache!]

1: pew pew pew  2: a man Al Borges isn't 3: an alternate universe

Ojemudia redshirt?

I think there is no way Mario O plays.  A ton of guys could be put on field before him.  Several combos could fill the WDE spot better, eg Ryan-Cam Gordon combo puts our best, or at least most experienced, backup on the field, Ryan-Avery is similar, or how about flip back Roh for a Roh-Brink/Heitzman/Wormley/Black(?) replacement.  Given how important a redshirt could be to Mario, I would think coaches will be creative.  

-Dirk

I agree with you philosophically. Ojemudia should get a redshirt. I get frustrated when certain players have theirs burned for what seems like no reason. I'm with you, man. But… I don't see how he doesn't get on the field if Clark's issues are severe.

The problem with the above scenarios is that they reduce Michigan's specialization by flipping guys around and they still leave Michigan an injury from putting Ojemudia on the field. Is that injury reasonably likely? Yeah. So it seems to make more sense to leave Ryan at SLB full time, where he is still getting a grasp on all the particulars, and Roh at SDE, where he needs every snap he can get to figure out how to deal with his size limitations. The immediate payoff here seems real, and given the way Michigan is recruiting they figure they will be able to insert a Taco Charlton or 2014 kid into the lineup when Ojemudia graduates without losing too much. Of course, Mattison just told everyone that he was comfortable with the idea of Ryan at WDE in practice and proclaimed his faith in Cam Gordon's ability, so what do I know?

But even with that move, you're still juggling just three players between two positions. That's not tenable. If the coaches know Clark is going to be back relatively promptly, then I can see holding Ojemudia out the first couple games and getting him the redshirt. If Clark's out until Notre Dame or later, I think you have to blood Ojemudia and worry about the consequences in the distant future.

Triple option?

Brian,

This may be a non feasible idea, but why not kill two birds with one stone by creating a triple option package for Denard and company? Everyone says its really hard to prepare for Air Force, and we could prepare our defense while surprising the crap out of Alabama. Think about it, our RB, FB, QB combo are familiar with zone reads and are a lot better than any combo air force will ever have. We surprised Ohio with the inverted veer last year, and Bama's young defense won't know what hit 'em.

In addition, I can't help but think kicking and coverage teams, plus Denard's (hopefully) reduction in interceptions will make up for the fortunate 80% fumble recovery rate. The special teams will likely improve with the influx of talent and depth we are getting, or negated by rule changes. Either way its a net gain for Michigan in special teams.

Jim

Unfortunately I think we have to file that under "not feasible." Triple option is not something you can go into halfway. Hell, Michigan's speed option last year was mostly a Denard run off-tackle that had little if any chance of getting to the tailback. The one time Denard pitched it was a fumble caused when a blitzing linebacker met him after he'd taken one step playside. While it had the excellent benefit of keeping defenses honest and shooting Denard into secondaries, calling it an "option" is being generous.

Adding a true triple option and trying to get him to better understand Borges's West Coast passing attack is way too much to bite off in one fall camp. Since Borges is what he is, he's going to do what he does, and that's get Denard to throw more accurate balls that are less frequently intercepted.

The inverted veer is a different business because it's a handoff. The worst thing that happens there is you make the wrong decision and you eat some yardage. We almost saw the worst thing with the option last year, and that's the last thing an offense trying to cut down on turnovers needs.

IN RE: making up for fewer fumbles recovered. I'm not sure the special teams will be much better than last year except in the realm of punting. Gibbons is still Gibbons, kick returns just got nerfed, and it's damn hard to have an impact punt return game these days what with everyone spread-punting their way to seven gunners. Punting should be better because Hagerup will either get his foot on straight or a quick hook for the steady Wile, but we're talking a few yards a game.

The interceptions, sure. Denard's interception rate dropped over the tougher second half of the year and he should improve somewhere between noticeably and spectacularly in year two with Borges. That still leaves Michigan treading water even in the most optimistic turnover scenario, and the schedule has taken a turn for the bear-like.

brian,

pre-bama thought experiment. in december of 2006, alabama offers rich rodriguez their head coaching job. he accepts. what happens to both alabama and michigan from then on?

trippwelborneID

Well, let's start with Alabama. They struggle through an RR-at-WVU transition year probably a little bit worse than their initial 6-6 Saban year, with Star Jackson taking over for the Bama bangs QBs midseason. Jackson doesn't end up transferring to nowheresville and becomes something like Pat White but probably not as good. No one gives six hundredths of a crap about the academics of RR's incoming recruits or Rita's jaguar pants, but RR probably still makes his fatal "I don't need Casteel that badly" error. With a somewhat more secure powerbase and money-providing demons, he does not hire GERG on try #2 and cycles through one of the then-available proven SEC DCs (Jon Chavis, for example).

This plus the better fit with his recruiting makes his defense not the worst ever assembled at the school he's coaching. He gets his QB a year earlier and has considerably better talent than he inherited at Michigan. He's replacing a total loser, one of many such since Bear. He does at least okay, probably pulls off an SEC title game or two, maybe wins it once, and sees a BCS bid or two.

He's probably still at Alabama in a Pelini-esque state: decent success, the fanbase is relatively happy with him, but they'll start to sour after a subpar year and two means you're out, buddy.

Meanwhile, Michigan finds itself adrift in the middle of the Les Miles/Bill Martin boat thing without a seemingly A-list candidate willing to jump. At that point I have no idea what they do. At the time I was muttering about how Jim Grobe mutterings were just the worst. Ferentz was out, Schiano was out, Miles was out, and Tedford was seemingly uninterested. Michigan clearly had no idea where to go, whereupon Rodriguez fell into their lap.

If Rodriguez is not there… does it matter? I'm not sure it matters. Lloyd was not Bo but he did have an impressive winning percentage, a national title, and the continuation of a record bowl streak. Would a pro-style coach have been able to turn Threet/Sheridan/no OL/nobody at all into a bowl appearance? I don't think so. At that point you're working from behind the eight ball and you have to be really fantastic to pull yourself out of that tailspin. Would Hoke have survived that? I doubt it; at that point his resume was a bunch of .500 seasons at Ball State. Would any outsider Michigan could have acquired have managed to hang on? Maybe by another year or two.

Even if we have no clue about who takes the reins in RR's absence in 2008, we can hazard a guess at their fate: similar hammering by OSU, flameout in 3-5 years, replacement. That's the way of things whenever you replace a legend, and if Carr wasn't a legend (debatable) he was definitely the continuation of Bo. It would have taken a truly A-level coach to not bomb out with no quarterbacks and no safeties and no offensive line, and it didn't look like any were available.

In the end, both programs are probably happy with the way things turned out. Alabama's case: duh. Michigan's: Rodriguez was such a terrible fit that Michigan rejected it in three years, at which point Hoke was just plausible enough to show up and shock everyone by doing everything right for going on 18 months.

Thing of the week. Introducing Vampire Denard, as MVictors dubbed him.

Formation notes: Michigan went heavy shotgun in this game. I've only got nine I-form snaps, two of which came in garbage time. As for how those snaps worked out… more on that later.

Michigan operated with a lot of 2-back sets in this game, from which they deployed a variety of zone runs; when they went three-wide with a TE he was usually aligned as an H-back a la Rodriguez.

Substitution notes: Nothing you don't already know. Line was Lewan/Schofield/Molk/Omameh/Huyge, WR rotation was the same as usual, Denard was knocked out when he hit his hand on a pass-rusher's helmet midway through the third, Toussaint got the bulk of the carries.

Show? Show.

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	DForm	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	4-3 under	Run	Triple option dive	Toussaint	0
Wow, good thing I didn't see this live: the NT times the first snap of the game. Anyway: Odoms is in the slot to the short side and comes in motion at the snap; he then appears to get in a pitch relationship with Robinson. Denard hands off on a dive to Toussaint; this is a mistake with the MLB headed to the dive. NT shoots past Omameh thanks to the snap timing and has time to come all the way around to tackle at the LOS. Toussaint had no other options because of the LB, who prevents a yard or two of YAC. RPS -1 for snap jump. RUN-: Robinson(2)
M20	2	10	Shotgun twin TE twins	1	2	2	4-3 even	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	65
The big run opened by the safety overplaying Robinson. M uses Koger and an H back and shoots him to the backside of the play to get a linebacker crashing down. Denard reads the exchange and hands. There are three second level defenders left with the scrape. One drops into coverage on the snap since the slot blitz left Hemingway open and Michigan threatens passes in these situations. A second tries to blitz the backside belly gap between Omameh and Huyge; Huyge(+1) just manages to get over to slow him down. LB is coming through because he's gotten in too fast but a significant slowdown is enough. The last guy is the free safety, who is still checking Denard by the time Toussaint bursts past the LOS. With Watson(+1) releasing downfield and sealing the cornerback there is nothing but grass in front of Fitz; the other S manages to grab his shirt because all long Toussaint runs this year end with someone grabbing his shirt. Molk(+1) and Schofield(+1) provided the frontside crease; Toussaint(+2) saw it and hit it immediately. RPS +1. I would normally give this more since there are three guys checking Denard but this is a basic spread play Illinois should not get clunked on like this. Picture paged.
RUN+: Molk, Huyge, Toussaint(2), Schofield, Robinson(0.5), Watson							RUN-:
O15	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	4-3 even	Run	Triple option dive	Toussaint	6
Denard slightly in front of the TBs, implying inside zone. Hopkins motions into a pitch relationship with Denard on the snap. This pulls both linebackers to the wide side of the field; slot guy comes in to contain and Robinson hands off. Hopkins never even looks at Denard so I don't think this is a read. Schofield(+1) kicks one DT; Molk(+1) another. Omameh(+1) comes off a momentary double to seal the SLB after he stepped the wrong way on the option fake. Lewan(+2) rides a DE five yards downfield. Toussaint hits the crease provided and hops outside... I think he gives up some yards by cutting back behind Lewan instead of just running right for the corner. RPS +1.
RUN+: Lewan(2), Schofield, Molk, Omameh							RUN-:
O9	2	4	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	Run	QB draw	Robinson	9
Slot LB stays with the slot this time; Illinois makes it up with a safety. They blitz a LB right into the intended hole; Smith(+2) hacks him to the ground as Robinson(+1) darts around him. Molk(+1) seals the playside DT; Schofield(+1) and Koger(+1) get downfield to wall off the last two guys. Lewan(-1) almost gets it all blown up by losing his guy; Robinson(+1) glides past that guy and into the endzone.
RUN+: Robinson(2), Smith(2), Molk, Koger, Schofield							RUN-: Lewan
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-0, 13 min 1st Q. Craig James says the last play is 'almost like a designed quarterback run'. O RLY?
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M47	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	4-3 even	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	7
Illinois keeps the LB over the slot and sends the guy on the short side; M runs another inside zone. The linebackers slide a little to the backside since Hopkins shooting into that end threatens both a Denard keeper and a Toussaint cutback; the corner has the frontside gap. Or at least he would if Gallon(+1) didn't read his blitz and crack down on him, shoving him past the hole and helping Omameh(+0.5) out on his WLB block. With Molk(+1) and Huyge(+0.5) not doing anything too bad on their blocks Toussaint hits the open hole for a good gain.
RUN+: Gallon, Huyge(0.5), Molk(0.5), Omameh(0.5), Toussaint(0.5)							RUN-:
O46	2	3	Shotgun 2back TE	2	1	2	4-3 even	Run	Inverted veer keeper	Robinson	1
Bubble complaint lodged. Anyway, Illinois has a corner on one side of the line with no one in his zone since the TE is offset to the WR side. He can run at this as soon as he sees the RB move away from him. He does. On the playside the optioned DE heads upfield so Robinson keeps. Omameh(+1) kicks the playside LB effectively. Cutback means the corner tackles Robinson from behind; even without that Lewan(-1) lost a downblock and Schofield(-1) couldn't get out on a linebacker. RPS -1. Picture paged.
O45	3	2	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	4-3 even	Run	QB draw	Robinson	1
Twinned WRs stacked over each other; Toussaint motions outside of them. No one really goes with him; Illinois is still playing a full two deep so it's six on six in the box. Illinois charges upfield, opening up a draw; a blitzing LB seems like he's supposed to deal with that possibility. Molk(+1) shoves him past the play. Mercilus beats Huyge(-1) upfield in a flash, which wouldn't normally be a problem but the guy actually catches Robinson from behind just as it looks like he's going to burst into the secondary. He can't tackle; he does redirect Denard into the DT peeling back. Omameh(-0.5) could have done a little better here and still made this a big play. Hopkins(+1) got a good block on the last LB. RPS +1; Michigan had this for big yardage but for Mercilus being great.
RUN+: Molk, Hopkins							RUN-: Huyge, Omameh(0.5)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-0, 10 min 1st Q. Boo punt.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M17	1	10	Ace twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 even	Pass	Throwback screen	Gallon	8
It's back. This one works because there isn't even a corner anywhere near the WR on the catch since Illinois bit hard on the play action and played soft behind it. Koger(-1) whiffs his block, unfortunately, and Lewan(-1) did not adjust to that reality; meanwhile Schofield(-1) also whiffs. Hard on these guys in space but man, I think one block here is a big, big gainer. RPS +2. (CA, 3, screen)
RUN+: Gallon							RUN-: Koger, Schofield, Lewan
M25	2	2	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	4-3 even	Run	QB draw	Robinson	-2
I think this doesn't go anywhere like where it's supposed to go because Molk(-1) cannot react quickly enough to a blitz to prevent a linebacker from getting in past him. Both RBs are headed to the left side of the line but that's no longer an option. Instead of redirecting Toussaint bangs the blitzing LB. Robinson is now alone in some space with two Illinois players. He hesitates(-2) and tries to go back to the play he had already abandoned. If he hits it up directly he may get a yard or two. Instead he loses four; the refs inexplicably say he lost only two. Refs +1, RPS –1. RUN-: Molk, Robinson(2)
M23	3	4	Shotgun trips bunch	1	1	3	4-3 under	Pass	Delayed slant	Hemingway	8
Lovely little route combo here as Odoms runs a drag across the field and Koger releases deep as Hemingway just kind of hangs out at the line waiting for everyone to GTFO. Denard stares down the drag, drawing a zoning DE, and then comes off on a wide open slant for the first. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +1) This was explained in the Football Fundamentals diary.
M31	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 under	Run	Zone stretch	Toussaint	9
Old friend. Illinois is way undershifted on the line and Molk can release immediately; Omameh(+1) cuts the NT to the ground. Molk ends up missing the MLB but only because he's charging straight upfield; he runs right by the play. Schofield(+1) adjusts to chuck the other blitzing LB to the ground; Lewan(+1) kicks the playside DE and Toussaint(+1) zips into a gaping hole. Illini have two safeties back so they combo to hold this down. RPS +1; Illinois reacted poorly to this.
M40	2	1	I-Form	2	1	2	4-3 even	Run	Power off tackle	Toussaint	3
Illinois slants to this play, which makes life difficult. Koger gets good push on a downblock; McColgan(+1) blows up the EMLOS; the two good blocks on this play give Toussaint enough of a lane to slam it up for a first down.
RUN+: McColgan, Koger							RUN-:
M43	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	4-3 even	Run	Zone stretch	Toussaint	0
Classic Molk reach(+2) sees the NT buried in the middle of the field. With the slot LB sticking to the WR and a backside blitz from the other corner plus two deep safeties there is now one player with any hope of preventing this from breaking big. Omameh(-2) runs by the guy and he makes the tackle. RPS +1.
M43	2	10	Shotgun trips	1	0	4	Dime even	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	25
The WTF Zook play. Illinois wants to defend this by slanting to the right and shooting a linebacker underneath into the belly gap to tackle for loss; Molk(+2) starts releasing left, reads this play that I don't know if he's ever seen before, and rudely ejects the LB from the box. Lewan(+1) and Schofield(+1) crease the backside DT and DE and Toussaint runs fast into a gaping cavern. RPS+2, but sort of a play where I'd like to RPS-2 Zook without giving a plus to anyone else.
RUN+: Molk(3), Schofield, Lewan, Toussaint.							RUN-:
O32	1	10	Shotgun 2back TE	2	1	2	4-4 even	Run	Power off tackle	Shaw	5
I think Michigan tips this by lining McColgan to the weak side, but whateva. Illinois blitzes the MLB to no effect. Think that's a Denard blitz. Huyge(+1) does a good job on the playside DT. There's now two Illinois players to the outside and one scraping from the inside. McColgan gets an iffy bump on the outside guys; Schofield(-1) realizes he needs to turn inside to get a scraping LB too late and lets him by. Shaw(+1) makes one hard cut upfield and runs into three arm tackles. He goes down. Did well to get yardage there and if he had a little more room could have creased this for a big gain.
RUN+: Huyge, Shaw							RUN-: Schofield
O27	2	5	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	Run	Zone read keeper	Robinson	4
The backside DE starts shuffling down the line to defend the belly and Robinson(+1) pulls. This is the right read and it takes a series of unfortunate events to hold this down. Event one: shuffling DE reads the pull and manages to bang Koger upfield. Event two: NT decides before the mesh point is complete that Denard is pulling and chucks his blocker to head backside. (This is why the handoff looked so open.) Event three: Hemingway's block on the slot guy is crappy. He gets upfield and takes Koger's block; Denard has to cut behind all this. Thanks to Lewan(+1) pushing that shuffling DE past the play he does have a cutback lane that he takes to the sticks. Unfortunately he puts the ball on the turf(-3). Addressed in a picture pages.
RUN+: Lewan							RUN-: Robinson(2), Hemingway
Drive Notes: Fumble, 7-0, 3 min 1st Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O41	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	4-3 even	Run	Triple option dive	Toussaint	6
WLB blitzes right at Molk(+1); Molk picks him up and walls him off. Triple option makes the MLB run upfield. Illinois is filling hard with a safety; Roundtree(+1) cracks down on him. Michigan has adapted to this Illinois strategy well; their WRs are picking up the right guys in the secondary. Change from last week. Anyway, Toussaint is now breaking free. Roundtree's block is tough and his man gets an arm tackle attempt that slows Toussaint; Huyge's man comes off to tackle with the corner. Omameh did a good job on the DT.
RUN+: Molk, Roundtree, Omameh							RUN-:
O35	2	4	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	Run	QB iso	Robinson	10
Schofield(+2) gets playside of a guy who is playside of him on the snap and buries him. Toussaint(+1) reads the block of Omameh and cuts inside; Robinson follows. Omameh's block is kind of crappy but as the DT is coming off he eats Toussaint. Robinson darts by. Molk(+1) takes out the MLB. Hemingway(-1) basically whiffs his block; Denard(+1) runs through that arm tackle attempt and gets a chunk more than the first.
RUN+: Toussaint, Schofield(2), Robinson, Molk							RUN-: Omameh(0.5), Hemingway
O25	1	10	Shotgun twin TE twins	1	2	2	4-3 even	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	7
Illinois now scraping down the line with that DE; I think this is actually a bad read by Denard(-1). With Odoms in the slot the corner opens up; Koger is running by the DE's block and should have any scraper DOA. (Hemingway's blocking is really an issue in this game.) Anyway, the DE should snuff this out at the LOS but inexplicably derps just as the guy with the ball runs by him. Toussaint(+1) runs through an arm tackle from that guy. That done he rides behind a great diving block from Schofield(+2) that sees the playside DT deposited five yards downfield. Half of Toussaint's plus is using this block to its fullest. Molk(+0.5) helped with a momentary double and then walled off a linebacker.
RUN+: Toussaint, Schofield(2), Molk(0.5)							RUN-: Robinson
O18	2	3	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	4-3 even	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	8
MLB blitz; Lewan(+1) shoots him down the LOS and eliminates him. Playside DT is already slanting away; Molk and Schofield help him but not plus. Hopkins(+1) walls off the DE containing Robinson. Slot LB is in no-man's land; Toussaint(+0.5) hits it up for a quality gain. RPS +1.
RUN+: Toussaint(0.5), Hopkins, Lewan							RUN-:
O10	1	G	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	2
With Koger pulling around it seems like Denard has a blocker for the scrape LB and is one on one with a safety. Anyway. Handoff is made. Molk(-2) is chucked to the ground by the NT; seems like it should be defensive holding but results based charting. Omameh(+1) is still blocking this guy but he's got a two for one. Schofield(-1) falls down and allows the backside DT to flow behind this business. Toussaint(-1) still has a lane thanks to a good Huyge(+1) kick but hesitates. For what reason I don't know. Angling outside and just slamming for whatever you can get seems like 4; he gets two.
RUN+: Huyge, Omameh							RUN-: Molk(2), Schofield, Toussaint
O8	2	G	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	6
Michigan's blocking changes, possibly based on opponent alignment. Lewan(+1) kicks the DE; Koger(+1) dives inside that block and picks off an aggressive LB. Schofield(+1) comes off a double to get another LB and Toussaint dances through the blocks to get down to the four. From there it's push the pile.
RUN+: Lewan, Koger, Toussaint, Schofield							RUN-:
O2	3	G	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	4-3 under	Run	Speed option	Robinson	2
Omameh(+2) slashes the backside DT to the ground and that is all she wrote. Molk(+1) gets the last linebacker with a chance and Robinson(+1) reads the situation for an easy six.
RUN+: Omameh(2), Molk, Robinson							RUN-:
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-0, 12 min 2nd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M41	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	0
Okay, now Illinois has this down. Shuffling DE comes down the line and tackles Toussaint as he cuts behind Omameh. M is running the Odoms end-around fake; without that—with a bubble—it seems like the keeper is open. As it is I don't even know if this is an option. RPS -1. RUN-: Robinson
M41	2	10	Shotgun twin TE twins	1	2	2	4-3 even	Pass	PA TE Flat	Koger	2
Robinson has to dump it immediately and can only be sure Koger is safe; he hits him; a cover two corner comes up to tackle on the catch. Koger fell down anyway. (CA, 3, protection N/A, RPS -1)
M43	3	8	Shotgun trips	1	0	4	4-3 even	Pass	Rollout out	Hemingway	15
Man, this rollout gets three Illini defenders running at Robinson unfettered but he does have enough time to zing a great pass into a well-covered Hemingway for the first down. Hemingway has to leap for it but it's not particularly tough catch and putting it at the height Robinson does is a good way to keep it from prying hands. (DO, 2, protection 0/2, Toussaint -1, team -1)
O42	1	10	Ace twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 even	Pass	TE wheel	Koger	40
Finally we get a derp easy play based on a team overreacting to something. M runs PA and then fakes the throwback screen. When the corner comes up hard on Gallon, Koger releases downfield and gets crazy wide open a la 2010. Denard has a touchdown... and leaves it short. To be fair, an Illinois blitz did get a guy in on Robinson, forcing him to throw off the back foot. Still... lay it a little further out here, man. (MA, 3, protection ½, team -1, RPS +3)
O2	1	G	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-3-5 stack	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	-3
Bandit type player actually looks like a DL; he charges hard at the LOS when Molk pops that head up. Another LB blitzes behind this. Both these guys get in free. Toussaint has no chance. RPS -2; Michigan dead on snap.
O5	2	G	I-Form	2	1	2	4-3 even	Run	Delay	Toussaint	-3
Guh, man. Michigan runs a delay on the five after passing like five times in this game. I'd rather just throw here. Illinois blitzes right into it and again gets an unlbocked LB into the backfield. Molk(-2) doubled a DT and was the primary culprit. Still not a fan of the call. RPS -1. RUN-: Molk(2)
O8	3	G	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	Pass	Scramble	Robinson	7
No one open, Robinson finally just runs and almost gets a huge reward for it; unfortunately he does step OOB early. Review picks up the ref error. (SCR, N/A, protection 2/2)
O1	4	G	Shotgun trips	2	3	0	Goal line	Run	Speed option	Robinson	-4
I do think the snap takes this from a low chance to zero chance but man... they didn't try to manball once on this series. If this is a good snap Robinson might pitch and then Toussaint either gets crushed by the guy flaring out or dives inside of him and drives the unblocked LB into the endzone. Still... when RR did this he threw two TEs on the line to give his runners more gaps to probe. RPS –1. RUN-: Molk.
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 5 min 2nd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M13	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	Run	QB iso	Robinson	0
Illinois shifts as Molk puts his head down, sliding one LB to the line and putting another guy right over the NT. Robinson has few good options once Molk(-1) gets beaten playside. He can wait and get tackled from behind by the shifted LB or not wait and get tackled by the NT. He chooses door #2. RPS -1. RUN-: Molk
M13	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	Run	Zone stretch	Shaw	-8
W/ Illlinois in a true even set Molk cannot reach anyone. Omameh(-3) is then tossed to the ground by the playside DT, which blows up the play. Normally you can cut to one side or the other other of that guy; here Omameh fails to exist and Shaw is doomed either way. Shaw(-3) compounds matters by not cutting straight upfield and accepting his loss of a couple. Instead he bounces outside and loses eight. RUN-: Omameh(3), Shaw(3)
M21	3	18	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	4-3 even	Pass	Sack	--	-6
Zone blitz confuses the M D line; live this looked like Huyge got destroyed but really this was just a complicated protection executed poorly. Huyge sets up to maybe block an OLB who drops off; Omameh eventually peels off Mercilus because a blitzer is coming unblocked up the middle and he does not have faith—or does not know—that Smith is about to slice the guy down. Mercilus annihilates Robinson as he delays because he isn't actually looking at the dude; ball pops up and is either recovered or intercepted. (PR, N/A, protection 0/3, Omameh -1, Huyge -1, Team -1) No replays show the routes, but M got killed on a zone blitz and had no obvious short options. RPS -1.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 14-0, 3 min 2nd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O43	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	4-3 even	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	7
Starts out with the triple stack; Odoms motions to the other side of the field. Illinois ends up with just six in the box; M runs at it. DE contains; handoff. Huyge(+1) picks up the WLB's blitz and kicks him out. Omameh(+2) gets an excellent driving block on the playside DT and a sizeable hole forms. Molk(-0.5) reads another LB blitz late and can't cut his guy off; he does impede him enough that Toussaint can run through an arm tackle. He cuts past a safety that Odoms isn't blocking in the back but is walling off; the delay allows the guy containing Robinson to come back and tackle from behind.
RUN+: Omameh(2), Huyge, Toussaint							RUN-: Molk(0.5)
O36	2	3	I-Form twins	2	1	2	4-3 even	Run	Iso	Toussaint	-2
Schofield(-0.5) gives too much ground here, making the angle of attack awkward. Lewan(-1) whiffs on a linebacker as he releases downfield, which spooks Toussaint into bouncing outside despite the fact that he's still got Hopkins and will probably get something by just slamming it up. As it is his bounce is a bad idea since it's into a guy with excellent position. RUN-: Lewan, Toussaint, Schofield(0.5), Hopkins(0.5)
O38	3	5	Shotgun trips bunch tight	1	1	3	4-3 even	Pass	Drag	Odoms	19
Part II of drag-follow, this time with the drag opening up. Illinois corner starts pointing at the Odoms motion and gets no response; he ends up having to make a hopeless march through traffic and has no shot of catching Odoms as he makes the turn upfield. Pattern got M an easy first down on a dead simple catch. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, RPS+1)
O19	1	10	I-Form twins	2	1	2	4-3 under	Run	Power off tackle	Toussaint	-2
Playside end dives under Koger(-1) and gets upfield into Schofield, picking off that puller. Aggressive MLB now shoots into the gap unmolested and Toussaint has nowhere to go. Hopkins had to flare out to block the blitzing slot guy, bubble complaint etc. RPS -1. RUN-: Koger
O21	2	12	Shotgun trips	1	0	4	Dime even	Pass	Screen	Smith	Inc
Smith gets bashed as he tries to get into the pattern and Mercilus gets a free run as Lewan(-1) is suckered by a zone blitz, so Robinson doesn't have time to let this set up or find a receiver. He throws it away. (TA, 0, protection ½, Lewan -1, RPS -1)
O21	3	12	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	Pass	Rollout fly	Odoms	Inc
Guhhhhhh. Odoms runs right by a zoning corner and is wide open for a touchdown. Denard throws it on a line and zips it just past the outstretched hands of Odoms. He deflects it but no way. If Odoms isn't 5'8” it's a TD easy. Still, Robinson had this and if he puts a little more arc on it this is an easy six. (IN, 0, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
Drive Notes: Missed FG(39), 14-0, 1 min 2nd Q. Michigan gets the ball back for a final play; Hail Mary not charted.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M42	1	10	Shotgun 2TE twins	1	2	2	4-3 even	Run	Yakety snap	--	-9
On Robinson; snap is perfect.
M33	2	19	Shotgun 2TE twins	1	2	2	4-3 even	Run	QB power	Robinson	11
Koger(+1) drives the playside end inside. The WLB is gone upfield to the other side of the line. Toussaint(+2) gets a crushing block on the MLB that blows him downfield; Hemingway(-2) does nothing with the slot LB. Robinson feints inside as that guy threatens to do bad things upfield; Omameh(+1) pulls into him, at which point Robinson bounces back outside and jets for the corner, stiffarming a safety.
RUN+: Robinson(2), Toussaint(2), Omameh, Koger							RUN-: Hemingway(2)
M44	3	8	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	Pass	Rollout what	--	Inc
Rollout just gets Robinson killed when he has to pull up since the edge is not clean, which exposes him to a free run from the backside end. Robinson pulls up and ends up chucking a ball directly at an Illinois DB, which is dropped. I have no idea what he saw; should have thrown it away. Possible this was deflected? These rollouts are more trouble than they're worth. (INX, N/A, protection 0/2, team, RPS -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-0, 10 min 3rd Q. Robinson is done for the day.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M29	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	4-3 even	Pass	Zone read dive	Toussaint	9
Hopkins comes around for the speed option; DE forms up so Gardner hands off. Toussaint(+1) squeezes through the backside hole between the OL and that DE. That's thanks to Schofield(+1) giving him some extra room. Schofield's guy eventually spins off to get an arm tackle attempt in; that slows Toussaint and allows a LB to come from behind. Lewan(+1) did a good job to erase the MLB on the play. RPS +1. Play design gets the gain here by optioning off the DE.
RUN+: Toussaint, Schofield, Lewan							RUN-:
M38	2	1	I-Form	2	1	2	4-3 over	Run	Power off tackle	Toussaint	0
Playside DT slants away from the play into Huyge, who is essentially blocked and cannot get out on the MLB. The rest of the play goes as intended but unblocked LB in the hole means a cutback into a mess for no gain because Omameh(-2) got shoved to the ground and a DT is sitting there unblocked. RPS -1. RUN-: Omameh(2)
M38	3	1	I-Form Big	2	1	2	4-3 under	Run	Power off tackle	Toussaint	0
Eight guys in the box and a safety coming down. M doubles the playside DT; Koger(+1) pops off and gets a driving block on the MLB. Playside DE slides down; Hopkins does kick him but Schofield has to slow up significantly to get through the hole. He ends up blocking the overhang corner as Toussaint(-2) runs into two unblocked players; had to follow Schofield and Koger for the first.
RUN+: Koger							RUN-: Toussaint(2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-0, 7 min 3rd Q. Runs from the I so far: 6 for -4 yards. Illinois muffs subsquent punt.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M32	1	10	I-Form	2	1	2	4-3 even	Run	Delay	Toussaint	3
Corner blitz overruns the play but the guy recovers well. Toussaint finds considerable running room at first until the DE on the edge gives it up to fill the hole; Toussaint bounces out smartly only for that blitzing corner to tackle from behind. Molk(+0.5) and Schofield(+0.5) got good looking blocks that weren't tested; Lewan couldn't really be blamed since the DE released in a way he had no ability to combat. The corner blitz gets the play. RPS -1.
RUN+: Toussaint, Molk(0.5), Schofield(0.5)							RUN-:
M29	2	7	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	Pass	Rollout hitch	Odoms	Inc
Edge acquired this time but this is going to be a five yards and immediate tackle sort of pass despite the roll. Ball winged to Tacopants. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M29	3	7	Shotgun trips	1	0	4	4-3 even	Pass	Rollout cross	Hemingway	20
I think the snap is too early here; a guy is coming across the formation but ends up not even getting to the center by the snap. He ends up useless when he's supposed to be a drag route underneath, I bet. Gardner gets pressure thanks to a Smith(-1) whiff on the cut but at least he whiffs to the outside and sends Mercilus inside; Gardner manages to run through the tackle attempt. Once he does that he lobs a wobbler to Hemingway that's brought in for a good gain. (CA+, 3, protection ½, Smith -1)
M9	1	G	Ace 2TE tight	1	2	2	4-3 even	Run	Pitch sweep	Smith	0
Pitch formation and pitch play picture paged last week, except Hemingway(-2) runs by the playside LB, leaving him to a pulling Molk, who has no chance to get this guy shooting upfield for leverage. Hemingway then whiffs on the safety. So he blocked the wrong guy and didn't even block the guy he was trying to. Smith has to cut back behind Molk because the LB has shot out to the corner; heavily flowing MLB Molk should be blocking and safety Hemingway whiffed on combine to tackle. RUN-: Hemingway(2)
M9	2	G	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	3-3-5 stack	Pass	Rollout drag	Hemingway	Inc
Blitz w/ DE flying upfield and LB coming behind it cuts off the roll and forces a quick, bad throw from Gardner. Hemingway can't haul it in; it's three yards if he does. (IN, 1, protection ½, team -1, RPS -1)
M9	3	G	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	Run	QB draw	Gardner	5
Give up and kick.
Drive Notes: FG(27), 17-0, 4 min 3rd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Shotgun 2TE twins	1	2	2	4-3 even	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	2
Playside DE contains; Koger(+1) moves out on the slot LB, who is coming down. That erases him way outside. Omameh does an okay job on the backside DT; Huyge(+1) gets a good block on the MLB, and Toussaint has a huge cutback lane... that he totally misses. Instead he runs to the wrong side of Omameh's block and turns a good gain into a crappy one.
RUN+: Omameh, Koger, Huyge							RUN-: Toussaint(2)
M22	2	8	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	4-3 even	Run	Zone read keeper	Gardner	2 (Pen -11)
Backside DE shuffles down and Gardner pulls. Depending on Hopkins's assignment his either fine or insane, because Hopkins slams that DE. Gardner now dealing with a scraping LB and a safety shooting down and has to bounce all the way outside, where he gets a couple yards. Hopkins gets a chop block PF for his block of a technically engaged DE, but I don't really blame him since the whole point of this offense is that guy is not actually blocked. So... someone's wrong. Hopkins or Gardner? I'm guessing Gardner. RUN-: Gardner(2)
M11	2	19	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	Run	Zone read dive	Toussaint	9
Illinois clearly backing out into safe coverage so M runs at a six man box. Molk(+1) and Omameh(+1) blow out the playside DT; Schofield(-1) has a tough time with his guy and he almost blows up the play but the great work on the frontside gives him a crease; Molk pops off on a LB. Toussaint does good work to make one dash cut right upfield after clearing the arm tackle attempt from the backside DE. He's into the secondary, where everybody is. Everybody tackles him.
RUN+: Toussaint, Molk, Omameh							RUN-: Schofield
M20	3	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Okie	Run	PA Scramble	Gardner	4
A blitz off the edge gets two guys in on Gardner almost before the fake mesh point and erase any thought of a throw. Gardner manages to scramble for decent yardage. PA on which you are not blocking a guy on third and ten? Come on. (PR, N/A, protection N/A, RPS -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-7, 13 min 4th Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O22	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	4-3 even	Run	Zone stretch	Toussaint	-5
Yeesh: not only does the slot LB blitz but so does the corner. Both of these guys are on the playside. Slot LB charges upfield; Hopkins(+1) manages to shove him past the play and Toussaint hops past him. With the playside DE sealed and Huyge(+1) out on the playside LB this is opening up but for that blitz; Hemingway(-1) again is watching his guy make a tackle after barely or not touching him; quicker reaction here maybe gets Toussaint a bounce. As it is he almost does before getting chopped down by an ankle tackle. RPS -2.
RUN+: Hopkins, Huyge, Omameh							RUN-: Hemingway
O27	2	15	Ace 4-wide tight	1	2	2	4-3 even	Pass	PA Whatever	???	Inc
Fake toss; WLB is blitzing upfield and is instantly in on Gardner. He chucks an ugly dangerous duck off his back foot that lands yards in front of Hemingway. He might have been open. (IN, 0, protection 0/2, team, RPS -1)
O27	3	15	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Dime even	Pass	Dig	Odoms	27
Three man rush gives Gardner all day. He gets a crease and steps up into the forever pocket, then hits a wide open Odoms breaking into the endzone. Yeesh, Zook. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +2, though again this is more of an RPS -2 for Illinois than anything else.)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 24-7, 10 min 4th Q. Game is over when M gets the ball back but for posterity...
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O40	1	10	I-Form twins	2	1	2	4-3 even	Run	Power off tackle	Toussaint	13
This is all RB. Lewan(-1) downblock is beaten by a slant; that guy cuts off the pulling Omameh. Toussaint has no crease and if he's going anywhere it's into the arms of an unblocked LB. Backside blitz should have this dead on the cutback but Illinois has two guys go after Gardner's waggle, allowing Toussaint(+2) to cut back hard and fast into the secondary. No RPSes now but this is not something that should have worked.
RUN+: Toussaint(2)							RUN-: Lewan
O27	1	10	I-Form big	2	2	1	4-3 under	Run	Iso	Toussaint	27
Everyone runs right at this and misses; Molk being a culprit. This is just here because Toussaint(+3) did silly things.
RUN+: Toussaint(3)							RUN-:
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 31-14, 2 min 4th Q. M gets the ball back and kneels. EOG.

I AM SO CONFLICTED

Illinois gives up 280 yards a game and hasn't had anyone score more than 21 against them save Northwestern; Michigan had more yards in the first half than OSU and PSU did in their entire games against the Illini; they spent most of the second half trying to strangle the game with their backup quarterback; one extra yard and one field goal pushed a little further inside and they put up 41.

Be happy.

BUT THE NO POINTS

Bothersome. Less bothersome than not moving the ball at all, like Iowa and MSU.

I THOUGHT YOU WERE SUPPOSED TO HATE BORGES

I hate the pro-style-with-Denard-and-Zoney-McOffensiveline, not the man. Are you Joe Paterno again?

IT'S NOT LIKE I HAVE ANYTHING BETTER TO DO NOW

Would you like to scream—

CHART

—chart?

[Hover over column headers for explanation of abbreviation. Screens are in parens.]

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR	SCR	DSR
2009, All Of It	1	7	6(2)	3(1)	4	4	-	-	?	44%
Notre Dame	3	25(8)	3(1)	4	1	-	4(1)	2	-	71%
Michigan State	4	14(3)	1	7(1)	1	-	-	2	2	68%
Iowa	1	11(3)	2	3(1)	2	-	1	-	-	64%
Illinois	4	9(1)	1	4	1	3	1(1)	-	-	60%
Purdue	2	12(1)	1	3	1	1	1	3	-	68%
WMU '11	-	6(1)	4	3	1	-	-	-	1	56%
Notre Dame '11	6	7(1)	1	6(1)	5	1	1	1	-	50%
EMU '11	1	10(1)	-	5	1	-	1	1	1	59%
SDSU '11	-	10(2)	-	4	2	1	-	1	-	53%
Minnesota '11	1	13(3)	1	3	1	-	-	-	-	73%
Northwestern '11	4	12(3)	1	7	2	-	-	-	1	59%
MSU '11	1	8(1)	4(1)	6	5	-	1	7	1	40%
Purdue '11	1	7(1)	-	1	2	1	-	2	-	66%
Iowa '11	2	21	2	7	1	-	3(1)	2	-	69%
Illinois '11	1	4(1)	1	2	-	1(1)	-	1	1	66%

Gardner had two CAs, three INs, and a PR.

Denard's DSR is an incredibly small sample size—4/6—so read as little into that as possible. His two bad throws were the "argh, why aren't you six feet tall, Odoms" overthrow and his last insane pass that was so off and wobbly it seems like it must have slipped or been deflected. He did have an impressive throw to Hemingway:

He gets an INC for his passing in this game, but if you look at his season trend he does seem to be getting better. The last three games he's been hovering in the md-60s, which is acceptable. The MSU debacle is a heavily mitigated outlier in a decent Big Ten season.

My problem with Denard's game was not in the air, but on the ground:

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Lewan	8	5	3	Had some mistakes in space.
Barnum	-	-	-	DNP
Molk	14	7.5	6.5	Off to roaring start and then hit a wall on the goal line stand.
Omameh	14	7.5	6.5	Had a really good day except when getting tossed to the ground on two plays that lost a ton of yards.
Huyge	7	1	6	Very solid day against Mercilus.
Schofield	11.5	5.5	6	Doing well, solid starter.
Mealer	-	-	-	DNP
Watson	1	-	1	…
Koger	6	2	4	Back to the usual after fun with Purdue DEs.
TOTAL	61.5	28.5	68%	A solid B day from the line against a good D.
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Robinson	6.5	8	-1.5	Fumble, bad reads, hesitancy.
Gardner	-	2	-2	Blew one read.
Toussaint	18.5	6.5	12	+5 on the meaningless last drive but still a quality day both running and blocking.
Shaw	1	3	-2	Turned in the ultimate Shaw run, at least.
Smith	2	-	2	Supplanted. M may have tipped screen by throwing it to him.
Hopkins	2	0.5	1.5	Marginalized in spread.
Rawls	-	-	-	DNP
McColgan	-	-	-	DNP
TOTAL	30	20	10	Good day from Toussaint; everyone else bler.
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Hemingway	-	7	-7	Huge, huge problem. I hate having him in the slot.
Odoms	-	-	-
Gallon	2	-	-
Roundtree	1	-	-
Grady	-	-	-	--
Jackson	-	-	-
Dileo	-	-	-	--
TOTAL	3	7	-4	Paging Floridian mountain goats to slot STAT
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	14	13	52%	Team 8, Omameh 1, Toussaint 1, Huyge 1, Lewan 1, Smith 1. NO MORE ROLLOUTS
RPS	18	20	-2	+8 before goal line stand; that was  big chunk and then Borges was just bleeding the game out w/ Gardner mostly. That'll happen.

So… yeah. Denard being negative on the ground is a recipe for bad things happening. A chunk of that is the fumble, but even if you take that out he barely edges above even. He danced too much and gave up yardage, he missed reads on the zone, and he didn't have any runs on which he could truly deploy his speed. That is part of Toussaint's day, obviously, but Denard's trend on the ground is now in the land of cocked eyebrow.

When the playside LB is doing this…

…and you're handing off you have messed up. That kind of thing is getting distressingly common.

Good god, I've never even seen a relevant wide receiver. What happened?

I don't know, man, but the difference between Hemingway and the little headbutting goats from Florida is stark. Having Hemingway in the slot against an opponent that loves to bring a linebacker off the corner is asking for trouble, and then there were plays that were just bad. Michigan ran that same pitch sweep I picture paged from the Iowa game to Hemingway's side; instead of blocking the playside LB Hemingway ran right to the safety. And then he whiffed. Molk had no shot at cutting off that LB when he ran free and Smith had to cut back into bodies. And then there was this:

I get that you might not be able to seal the guy to the outside but at least shove the dude somewhere. Like… touching him would be a start.

Meanwhile, Michigan's throwing go routes into the endzone at Odoms. I get moving Hemingway around a little bit but let Odoms headbutt people and catch touchdowns from the slot. Needs moar tiny bastards.

Barely relevant WR chart?

And here's the barely relevant WR chart.

[Passes are rated like so: 0 = uncatchable, 1 = very difficult, 2 = moderately difficult, 3 = routine.]

	This Game					Totals
Player	0	1	2	3	0	1	2	3
Hemingway	-	-	-	2/2	10	0/2	8/9	18/21
Roundtree	-	-	-	-	10	1/5	5/7	9/10
Odoms	2	-	-	2/2	4	-	-	2/2
Grady	-	-	-	-	4	-	0/1	2/2
Gallon	-	-	-	1/1	7	-	2/2	21/21
J. Robinson	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Dileo	-	-	-	-	-	0/2	2/3	2/2
Jackson	-	-	-	-	-	-	1/1	1/1
Koger	-	-	-	1/1	6	1/3	3/4	10/11
Moore	-	-	-	-	2	-	1/1	-
Toussaint	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2/3
Shaw	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1/1
Smith	1	-	-	-	4	0/2	1/1	7/8
Hopkins	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	1/1
McColgan	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1/1

The only thing to say to this is "whatever."

I thought running Denard on the goal line was instant touchdown, smart guy?

It's a good idea when you're in a power set… maybe not so much when you've only got five blockers against seven guys. When RR wanted to power it into the endzone he would put two TEs on the line without fail, which spread the defense further out—harder to get around the edge—and gave Denard more gaps in which to cut. Heck, Borges did it:

That is tough to stop with everyone spread out and one guy going down enough to give Denard a crease. Going four wide is asking for trouble. Think of it like a power play for the defense, which always has one extra guy to tackle: would you rather be killing a 5 on 4 or 4 on 3? (Note that this equation is reversed when there's a lot of field left and two deep safeties are back: then you've got the power play.)

The snap didn't help either, obviously.

Is it just me or do you also want to cry into the pillow when they come out under center?

It is not just you. We've been tracking the efficacy of Michigan's running game from the shotgun versus under center all year. It's been a blowout in favor of shotgun most weeks, but never so much as it was on Saturday. Michigan ran ten times from under center and collected 39 yards.

It's even worse than that sounds. 40 of those yards—ie, more than all of them—came on the two Toussaint runs after the Illinois onside kick that I only charted to demonstrate how good of a back the kid is. On the first he cut to the backside of the play on a power, which rarely goes well; on the second he had to dodge three tacklers on the backfield on an iso and bounce all the way to the sideline before finding open grass. At no point did Michigan open up the hole it wanted to from the I.

Shotgun runs averaged 5.8 yards a pop. If you take out the 65-yarder they get hacked down to 3.9… so… yeah. Take out the best run of the day and Shotgun Michigan had an average outing against the Illinois defense. Leave it in and it's the best performance of the year by over a half-yard. Under Center Michigan was two garbage time carries away for being negative on the day.

Those are the numbers.

AAARGH TEN MAN FOOTBALL

Anecdotally, it felt like all of Michigan's under-center runs were doomed from the start and a lot of  Michigan's unsuccessful shotgun runs were close to breaking long. This Toussaint zero-yarder is one easy Omameh block from being a big gain:

Guhhhhhhhhh. Omameh gets even a weak shove on the linebacker he's way playside of and Toussaint is shooting at the safeties with a lead blocker. That's thanks to the Classic Molk Reach Block, something that just about kills any attempt to defend a stretch play and a thing I hope we see more of as the season concludes.

On another Michigan caught a double A gap blitz and ran right by it.

That's playing with fire, though given the different alignments of the QB in stretch versus inside zone alert opponents might pick up on it.

To be fair, it didn't work consistently in this game. There was a nine-yarder, the missed opportunity above, the WTF Shaw play, and a late stretch that lost a chunk of yards because M was in murder-the-clock mode and Illinois blitzed not just the slot but the corner from the playside. The numbers don't suggest using it more. But I'm telling you: with its sparse use so far this season there is a big stretch play in the near future if Michigan just runs it 6-8 more times.

So they ran the stretch. Did that feel like an RR-esque gameplan?

Moreso than any we've seen so far. The TE-as-H-back was straight out of the RR playbook and allowed Koger to attack both the frontside and backside of the line depending on what was called for. The stretch came back, and Michigan used the belly to good effect. They attacked various places along the line and didn't expose themselves to the monotonous repetition of the blitz.

Will we see something similar this weekend? Who knows. Borges changes like the wind.

Is the offensive line actually any good?

Molk is very good, Schofield has been consistently above average, Lewan is solid in the run game and people don't even bother testing him on passes. Huyge… variable. Not good in pass protection. And Omameh clearly has size and strength issues even if he had a good game this time out. Watch Akeem Spence toss him to the ground on the Shaw BOUNCEBOUNCEBOUNCEDERP play:

That is a big no-no and it happened twice. He also biffed that block on the coulda-been stretch.

Despite all that I had him +7.5 on the day, so he's not just a liability. It's just that when he does something wrong it's very wrong.

Heroes?

Toussaint and the interior offensive line.

Goats?

Hemingway's blocking was terrible. Michigan needs more from Denard on the ground if they're going to win the next couple weeks.

What does it mean for Nebraska and beyond?

Do you think this will be the final straw for playing from under center? I don't, either, but there's no way either of the last two games sees play distributions like the Iowa game. Probably. We'll get the usual dosage of POWER that has no POWER and is actually kind of like A GAP ADULT CONTEMPORARY. Hopefully it will be on second and third and one and actually pick up yards, unlike this game.

But anyway: this is a shotgun running team still, and seems to be doing some more shotgun running things. The triple option stuff was clearly a decoy in this game, which is why they dumped it after it worked a couple times. If I know Borges that means an actual triple option is coming. That plus a little more stretch and maybe a return to that sprint counter once the stretch is established could break some stuff open. Look for misdirection against Nebraska—Lavonte David is fast but if you get fast running the wrong way you are in business.

We didn't learn anything about the passing game on Saturday; you might be able to put a grain or two in the "Denard isn't as bad as as it seemed early in the season" pile, but that's it.

Schadenfreuede starring you. You may be featured in TWIS…

It's time to play "MGoBlog Content Or Smiths Song?"

1. "Embarrassing really doesn’t cover what this is"
2. "If you have a pitchfork I want to talk"
3. "That joke isn't funny anymore"
4. "I've got nothing left"
5. "I started something that I couldn't finish"
6. "Searching for something to hold on to"

…but so am I so it's only fair. Also the first one isn't actually MGoBlog content, it's from MGoFootball, but it was too perfect.

What happened when that other thing was happening. If you weren't one of the sixteen people at Yost on Saturday this is what happened:

That completed a four point weekend after Michigan's last-ditch tying goal led to a shootout loss in Big Rapids. The NCAA does not use shootouts as part of the PWR formula so to them it's just 1-0-1, which is a decent enough weekend against an opponent that traditionally plays Michigan very tough at home.

Michigan heads up to Fairbanks this weekend for a tough series against Alaska (That Alaska):

The Nanooks are 5-2-1 on the year and have a win over Colorado College; they've beaten some weak teams and lost to North Dakota at home and had a 0-1-1 trip at Munn in their first and only weekend outside of Alaska. After that Michigan gets a rejuvenated Notre Dame program at Yost; the next two weeks will go a long way towards establishing just what Michigan is this year after a slightly shaky start.

Brian Kelly terror level: reduced. I'm on record saying that in Brian Kelly Notre Dame had found a real coach who was likely to whip the talented but lost Weis leftovers into a formidable team sooner or later, likely sooner. Eh… not so much. The decision to have your freshman backup toss a fade to Michael Floyd when you need a field goal to win and a Groza candidate at kicker is Weis-level outsmarting yourself. Also it was against Tulsa.

So that's one thing. More damning still was what happened in the Navy game. At halftime Brian Kelly mumbled something incoherent about the "veer" to the sideline reporter, implying that the Mids had brought out the fireworks for their big game against Notre Dame:

If you saw the game you might have thought this was weird since the Navy offense looked pretty much like the Navy offense always does except the fullback wasn't getting tackled until he was 20 yards downfield. Navy blog The Birddog, which breaks down Navy games in detail equivalent to UFR, explains what the fancy new scheme was:

Kelly and Diaco just have absolutely no clue how the Navy offense works.

Navy started the game in the heavy formation, with two tackles lined up on one side and a wide receiver in the tackle position on the other side. Contrary to Kelly’s comments, this isn’t unusual at all for the Navy offense. Offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper frequently uses the heavy formation when the defense has an inside linebacker with exceptional playmaking ability; in Notre Dame’s case, that would be Manti Te’o. … The first down lineman on or outside the B gap is still unblocked as the quarterback’s first key, and the next player out is still #2 in the count. Since it is the lineman in the B gap that is left unblocked, that’s the path that the fullback takes on his run. If that lineman steps upfield and takes the quarterback, that’s where the running lane will be.

That isn’t something new that the Navy coaches saved for Notre Dame. That is Navy Offense 101. It’s the absolute basics; the bread and butter play run in every game out of every formation. If Diaco and Kelly hadn’t seen it before, then I have no idea what film they’ve been watching, or if they even watched any at all. That isn’t even hyperbole; they thought that Navy’s fullback ran through the A gap. And that was their plan– to send the inside linebackers crashing into the A gap that nobody was running through.

The Birddog explains Kelly's odd veer comment as a fundamental misunderstanding of the Navy offense based on the idea they run the midline a ton (they did run it against ND, but only twice). Which fine he's an offensive guy but that's got to be the explanation he got from DC Bob Diaco, then, so you're just devolving the gaping incompetence to the coordinator level. (This does not sound familiar at all.) So Notre Dame goes in at halftime aware they've made a fundamental mistake when it comes to the Navy offense and they change their scheme up like so:

Those ILBs kept running into the A gap for the entire game. Once or twice Te’o scraped outside to make a play in the backfield, and I’d think,”OK, now we’ll see something else.” But we didn’t. Notre Dame would go right back to the same old thing on the next play, and the Mids would pick up a big gain.

That's how you lose 35-17 to Navy. Navy then went out and lost to Duke, rushing for 148 yards at 4.0 a pop. So… yeah. As long as Diaco's around I'm not going to be that terrified of Brian Kelly. (This is not a criticism you can level at Michigan.)

Give me back mah bukkit. Elsewhere in Charlie Weis comparisons, Danny Hope is one easily-peeved walrus:

After Purdue cut its deficit to 37-10, Illinois threw three passes on a 57-yard scoring drive, including a 15-yard scoring strike from Scheelhaase to Chris James with 1:36 left.

"I probably would not have done that but I’m not going to cry about it," Hope told reporters after the game. "That's their choice, their call. I would not have done it. He’s the coach. If it makes him feel better about him and his team, call it, chuck it and run it up."

Unlike former Minnesota coach Tim Brewster, who had a heated postgame exchange with Wisconsin's Bret Bielema after an Oct. 9 game in Madison, Hope doesn't intend to confront Zook.

"Why would I say something about that?" Hope said. "Game's over. It's his call. It’s done. I'm not going to cry about it."

Charlie Weis press conferences were laden with statements like "I'm not going to blame Jimmy Clausen for overthrowing Golden Tate, I take that responsibility myself. Another thing I'm taking responsibility for: our defensive line being comprised of mewling kittens. That's on me, and does not reflect poorly on the character of Ian Williams." Here Hope repeatedly states he's not going to cry about the thing he is crying about.

Etc.: 2011 PG commit Trey Burke continues to play well in local tournaments, going head to head with a top-50 player and coming out almost even in points (33 to 34) and seeing his team pick up the W.

Personnel notes: Omameh played the whole game at right guard; Huyge played the whole game at RT. Roundtree was the only slot the whole day. Brown saw about four plays late; he was replaced by Grady, Shaw, and Smith.

Formation notes: A lot more two-back sets without a tight end against Purdue. Don't know why.

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M19	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	10
Excellent scoop block from Moosman(+1) and Omameh(+1) seals the playside DT and gets Omameh out on the MLB. Shaw shoots up in the hole ahead of Minor and does get enough of the OLB to clear him out of the path; Minor's got a crease and takes it, raging his way until two Purdue guys close him down as he nears the marker.
M29	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Shaw	2
Purdue brings a safety to the line and blitzes two linebackers. Minor heads to the backside of the play to take out the backside DE as Purdue stunts. Ortmann(-1) can't block the DE to his side and Omameh(-1) loses the playside DT as he slants outside; those two guys come down to tackle. Good playcall from Purdue, I guess (RPS -1)
M31	2	8	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	--	-7
Purdue blitzes a linebacker right into this and he gets in on Forcier as soon as he rolls out; Forcier manages to school the guy and make him miss. Unfortunately, Minor(-1) loses the DE and that guy cleans up for the sack. Almost a great play from Tate. (PR, 0, protection 0/1, Minor -1, RPS -1)
M24	3	15	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Seam	Roundtree	26
Michigan gets to the line very quickly and catches Purdue unprepared for the snap. Roundtree immediately bursts open on the seam; Forcier is looking elsewhere. He comes off the outside receiver and goes to Roundtree, but only after scrambling forward. His pass is way, way short and gives the tampa-2 MLB a better shot at the ball than Roundtree, but Roundtree adjusts and manages to wrestle himself into a simultaneous possession call. If thrown deep this is a touchdown, as Roundtree had the deep middle by yards. (IN, 1, protection 2/2) Replay opinion: absolutely simultaneous possession.
50	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Short bubble	Roundtree	10
Differentiating here from the full bubble, which threatens to get outside the outside WR's block, and this adjustment Michigan put in after people freaked out about the bubble where the WR runs a shorter route and heads directly upfield, as Roundtree does here. This is open as the short LB is focusing on the run and the safety is in a soft, soft man on Roundtree. Roundtree's not fast but he is quick in short spaces and does a great job of getting upfield quickly here. (CA, 3, screen)
O40	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Slant	Roundtree	11
Linebacker freezes because of a Minor dive fake, which opens up a slant for Roundtree that Forcier nails with perfect timing; Roundtree brings it in and drives for another first down. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O29	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	29
They've made that adjustment I wanted them to make last week: again the lead blocker shoots up into the hole as Michigan gives the playside DT a true double. Shaw(+1) blocks the OLB and Minor hits the the gap in the line, cutting up behind Shaw's block and running through a poor tackle from the Purdue safety. Slowed, he manages to split three more Purdue defenders, stiff arm the safety, and dive in for a touchdown. Probably the first run on Minor's NFL highlight reel. BONUS: Watch Roundtree(+1) realize what's happening on the play and run downfield to truck a safety. How did Kelvin Grady ever get on the field ahead of this guy?
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-7, 10 min 1st Q. Roundtree may have already had the best game of any Michigan receiver all year. Stonum returns kick for nice field position on next drive.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O40	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	5
Same deal with the scoop block on the frontside tackle getting him sealed and Shaw taking on the OLB. Shaw(-1) ends up getting plowed over by his guy, which forces Minor outside; OLB makes an ankle tackle with help from the safety. Could have broken bigger. Omameh(+1) is doing a very good job so far.
O35	2	5	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Out	Roundtree	6
Very simple as Purdue is in man and the safety, way off the line, has responsibility here. There's no way he can close down the space before Forcier can hook up with Roundtree for a first down. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O29	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Run	Triple option pitch	Minor	-5
Sharik says that the problem here is that Forcier screws up the read because the DE is containing, not crashing, and that he needs to give on the dive. More on this later. Small problem: dive won't work anyway because Omameh(-1) blew past the slanting DT and he's into the hole; Shaw will have to cut back into that DE, I think. That, at least, is a better outcome than what happens: Forcier keeps, DE forces an early pitch, and and unblocked safety comes crashing down to smoke Minor in the backfield. (ZR -1) BWS picture-paged this.
O34	2	15	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Throwaway	--	Inc
Max pro and Purdue still gets through because Ortmann(-1) gets beaten by one DE and Huyge(-1) loses the other one; Purdue's gotten outside their rush lanes, though, and Forcier can scramble out. Savoy is covered, Roundtree doubled, and Forcier signals Savoy deep before chucking the ball OOB. Maybe had a few yards if he just took off but this is a net positive given the protection. (TA, 0, protection 0/2)
O34	3	15	Shotgun empty	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Jailbreak screen	Hemingway	Inc
Pass tipped by a stunting Purdue DT. Play was well set up, with room for Hemingway to get at least ten or so and maybe a first down. (BA, 0, screen)
Drive Notes: FG(51), 10-10, 6 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M27	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Short bubble	Roundtree	4
Same short bubble with the LB lined up over the second slot receiver getting to the outside, which is right where Michigan wants him as Roundtree again heads upfield inside. Safety reacts more quickly this time and holds it down. (CA, 3, screen)
M31	2	6	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 3-4	Run	Zone read veer	Robinson	-3
Robinson in as an RB, and they block down, leaving the frontside DE unblocked. He keeps contain; Forcier hands it off anyway (ZR -1) and Robinson gets smoked.
M28	3	9	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Nickel	Pass	Scramble	Forcier	11
Forcier has plenty of time and a nice pocket, but can't find anyone open. He's only got three options and Purdue has dropped off very deep, so no one's open. He decides to take off, and gets the first down. As per new policy, not charting good scrambling decisions as TAs. (Protection 2/2)
M39	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Dive	Minor	7
Not a read: Michigan blocks the backside DE and pulls Omameh around after Schilling down-blocks the playside DT into oblivion. LBs are not expecting this and Omameh gets a block on the MLB, allowing Minor to hit it up for good yardage.
M46	2	3	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Roundtree	4
Roundtree loses his footing as he brings this in and is unable to cut this upfield; he ends up stumbling into the WR/DB block and pushing ahead for a few. (CA, 3, screen)
50	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Penalty	False start	Mathews	-5
Mathews?
M45	1	15	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	55
Purdue shifted a bit towards the wide side of the field, where Roundtree awaits a potential bubble. Instead the stretch. Michigan cuts the lead blocker up into the hole this time as Schilling(+1) and Moosman(+1) execute an excellent scoop block on the playside DT, sealing him. Schilling releases to kick out the OLB; the MLB is hunting around the backside of the play. Grady(+1) then gets just enough of the safety to spring Minor into the secondary, where he shows a good top gear. Hurray for actually using the lead blocker on the stretch.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 17-10, 14 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M8	1	10	Ace	1	2	2	Base 4-3	Run	Zone stretch	Minor	-1
Purdue MLB is flowing very fast downhill here and Omameh has no shot at releasing into him despite going downfield immediately. Moosman(+1) has sealed the playside DT and there is a crease for Minor but that linebacker fills it and the play goes nowhere. Not sure what's wrong with this play; as designed it looks like it can't work. Waggle would probably catch guys out of position, I guess.
M7	2	11	Pro Set Twins	2	1	2	4-3 under	Pass	Hitch	Savoy	5
Don't know why this isn't from the shotgun but okay whatever. Simple rollout hitch that's basically on time; immediate tackle. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M12	3	6	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	TE Hitch	Koger	10
Excellent timing from Forcier this time as the ball is already halfway there by the time Koger turns around, which prevents Purdue from getting to Koger before he catches it; Koger even gets a yard or two after the catch. (CA+, 3, protection 1/1)
M22	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Rollout fade	Savoy	22
Michigan has run this all year; usually they end up hitting the underneath receiver running an out as they run their version of a cover-two beater. Here the CB pulls up a bit and Forcier goes for the fade. Excellent timing and location away from the safety; nice catchable ball for Savoy. Precision. (DO, 3, protection 1/1)
M44	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Deep Post	Roundtree	Inc
This is a deep, deep drop, as Forcier wanders back from his shotgun position and ends up tossing the ball ten yards back from the LOS. First time I've seen this all year. Purdue is blitzing and leaving man coverage on the outside. Michigan in max protect and sliding the coverage; Shaw and Grady both do just okay on their guys and I think Forcier has to throw this a half second before he wants to. Roundtree is breaking past the safety on a post but the ball, thrown off the back foot, is well overthrown. (IN, 0, protection 2/3, Shaw –1, RPS +1)
M44	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	QB draw	Forcier	17
With Purdue thinking pass after the last four plays Michigan goes with the draw and it opens up as Omameh and Moosman down-block the playside DT out of the picture and Grady(+1) gets a pop on the OLB; the other linebackers were heading into man coverage. Watch Omameh(+1) peel off the DT and run downfield to get a block on the MLB after the sticks.
O39	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	--	-4
Intended to be a bubble screen but the Purdue corner jumps it and Forcier decides not to throw the ball. Good decision. Better decision would have been to wing it out of bounds. Forcier starts scrambling around but that's not going to work. (TA, 0, screen, RPS -1) Need to hit them up with the fake bubble-seam thing to keep 'em honest.
O43	2	14	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 3-4	Pass	Deep Post	Roundtree	57
Michigan's got a tipoff on Purdue's blitzes or something because the Boilers bring six this time and leave two guys manning up on the RBs; it's again man zero on the wideouts. Forcier takes another deep drop and this time gets protection, throwing a 20-yard dart downfield to Roundtree(+2) on the post. Roundtree then stiffarms the safety at the 15 and rolls in for a touchdown. (DO, 3, protection 3/3, RPS +3)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 24-10, 8 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O49	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Smith	7
Purdue slants the line away from the direction of the stretch—never happens in one RB sets—and this gives Smith the corner as Huyge does a pretty decent job of sealing the playside DE and preventing him from darting into the backfield. Er. Correction: Huyge holds the hell out of him. No call. This gives Smith the corner; the MLB flows to the ball too quickly for Schilling to get out on him and makes a good tackle after a few yards; Smith almost runs through it but bangs into Minor and falls.
O42	2	3	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	--	-8
Same play that was the Roundtree TD and it again catches Purdue in man zero. Forcier pumps, which makes me think they're running a stop and go but there's no confirmation of that. After the pump he loads up to throw... and gets killed by a guy who beat Schilling(-2) one-on-one. (PR, 0, protection 0/2) Forcier fumbles and Schilling recovers.
50	3	11	Shotgun empty	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Jailbreak screen	Stonum	Inc
Stonum was dead meat anyway because a stunting DT came around and knocked Schilling to the ground as he tried to release downfield and the guy Schilling was supposed to block was coming in to murder-death-kill Stonum. Still... gotta catch the ball. (CA, 3, screen, RPS -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 24-10, 5 min 2nd Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M21	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	6
Hard to tell exactly what's going on here because BTN is checking out the suites; when we cut to the play Moosman(+1) has sealed the playside DT and Minor is heading through the gap; Grady gets a lead block on the OLB and Omameh(+1) is killing the MLB; safety comes up to clean up after seven.
M27	2	4	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	4
Virtual replay; seal isn't quite as good this time and the OLB attacks the hole more quickly; Grady ends up cutting him but Minor has to gingerly pick through the mess. He does so, falling forward for near first-down yardage.
M31	3	In	Ace 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	QB sneak	Forcier	2
Insert complaint about Illinois goal line stand here.
M33	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	0
Em... maybe some variation? Purdue slants under the play; Omameh(+1) does a good job of adjusting to it; he's getting driven back but gets playside of the guy and prevents him from making a tackle. Minor to the edge, but the MLB has again leapt past the attempted second-level block from Schilling and filled the hole, where he does a great job of forcing Minor out for no gain. Michigan's not doing enough to make him hesitant.
M33	2	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Run	Triple option pitch	--	-14
DE is totally crashing down so the pull is the right move, but the cornerback to the playside is either blitzing or has this play dead to rights because he is coming in for the triple option on the snap. He's the guy who's out on Forcier, which is weird because he should probably take Minor; Forcier does a terrible job of reading this and ends up making a huge mistake by pitching the ball; corner deflects it and Purdue recovers. (RPS -2)
Drive Notes: Fumble, 24-10, 13 min 3rd Q. Stonum gets another good return.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O46	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch(?)	Minor	1
This is like the sixth play the BTN has missed part of. This is ridiculous. Minor gets a yard; I don't know what went wrong.
O45	2	9	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Quick wheel	Minor	Inc
Looks like it's breaking open as Purdue is in cover three so the CB to this side is bailing out and Minor will get the ball with an opportunity to thump some guys; Forcier throws it at Minor's knees and he can't dig it out. (MA, 2, protection 1/1)
O45	3	9	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Mathews	28
Not going to get a first down but it's a hot read with Purdue blitzing; Mathews(+2) breaks a tackle from the Purdue CB and turns it into a big chunk of yards. (CA, 3, protection 1/1) Better read was probably the TE seam but it works.
O17	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Short bubble	Roundtree	7
Another play they miss the start of because they're showing eight replays. Michigan runs the short bubble again and Roundtree zips upfield, juking past the safety and getting down to the ten. Good timing on these things and Roundtree is good about catching them in a spot where he can dart immediately upfield. (CA, 3, screen)
O10	2	3	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Power O(!)	Minor	4
Gap-blocked play with a pulling Schilling. Omameh(+1) kicks the Purdue DL down the line by himself; Huyge releases into the MLB; Koger(-1) loses the DE and forces Schilling to block him instead of head to the second level. Good adjustment from Schilling. Minor cuts behind that and the Huyge block to plow for a first down.
O6	1	G	Shotgun Twins 2TE	1	2	2	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read keeper	Forcier	6
Excellent read from Forcier here as the Purdue DE crashes on Minor; the OLB has sucked up to the line and is eliminated by Webb(+1) and the MLB is not scraping so Forcier's got a lane. Safety hits Forcier(+1) at the two but he manages to fall in. (ZR +1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown(Missed XP... sigh), 30-17, 11 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M18	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read keeper	Forcier	1
DE crashes down so Forcier pulls it but Purdue has shifted right before the snap and brought a safety down for QB contain; he gets out on the keeper and shuts it down. A perfect play for the RPS metric. This one is a -1.
M17	2	9	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Short bubble	Roundtree	0
Back to the well one too many times; OLB is right there on the catch. (CA, 3, screen, RPS -1)
M17	3	9	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Sack	--	-7
Max pro. Purdue in zone coverage that looks like a cover-3. Forcier decides to scramble up as Koger(-1) is chucked out of the way by a DE; there he meets a guy who's shot by Schilling(-1) then come around his futile attempt to resume the block; Forcier gets sacked. Seven blockers, four rushers. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 30-31, 3 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M16	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	PA short seam	Roundtree	16
The counter to the well they went to too many times on the last drive: bubble fake, Roundtree runs straight upfield, Forcier nails him, some nice YAC.. (CA, 3, protection NA, RPS +1)
M32	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	3
Michigan now expects the MLB to have to respect the play they just ran and runs it directly where he probably shouldn't be. Play opens up pretty well but Omameh(-1) gives too much ground and Minor has to slow down as he awkwardly cuts past the mess, which gives the OLB time to react. Some seam PA would kill these guys.
M35	2	7	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Rollout scramble	Forcier	4
Roundtree's out is covered by the Purdue OLB and the deep route is doubled, so Forcier's out of throwin' options and decides to take off behind the pass block of Minor. Guy comes off the block to make a tackle as Forcier passes; nice play. (TA, 0, protection 1/1)
M39	3	3	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	QB lead draw	Forcier	4
Purdue prepared for this, with the playside DE slanting inside Ortmann and forcing Forcier outside. Minor reads it and heads outside, as does Forcier; Minor pops the MLB but Forcier has no choice but to hit it up into the same guy. Their combined momentum pushes the pile forward and over the line.
M43	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Power dive	Minor	0
Omameh pulls around. Schilling(-1) doesn't do well with his guy and Omameh gets delayed, which allows the MLB to attack his block near the LOS and forces Minor to hop around, delaying this and turning it into not much of a gain.
M43	2	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	4-3 under	Run	Zone read veer	Minor	21
This is the inverse of the play that was picture-paged Tuesday, with the line blocking down, Minor heading upfield, and Forcier the threat that needs to be contained. This time Tate hands it off as the DE is running upfield at him; to me this is an angle that makes it really hard to tell what to do. Zone read stuff is hard. (ZR +1) I think the key is that the DE here is taking an angle and running at a speed that makes it hard for him to defend anything. Anyway: handoff, Minor zips past the DE and the rest of the Purdue D is anticipating a stretch so Minor can run behind the block of Schilling; Ortmann doesn't even have anyone to take on. MLB reacts late and can only dive at Minor's feet; from there he's gone until the safety manages to make a touchdown-saving tackle from behind.
O36	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Smith	4
Play is well blocked with Moosman(+1) getting the playside DT seal he's gotten virtually all day and Grady getting out to pop the OLB that should be the last thing between Smith and a big gainer; Purdue's safety was coming up for a short zone/run contain on the snap, though, and is there to fill as Smith pops out of the crease.
O32	2	6	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Smith	1
Same play from O and D. The Purdue DT doesn't get sealed quite as authoritatively and Smith only has a small crease to dart through, that one it takes a little bit longer for him to get to. This allows the meh backside scoop block to screw up the play; Ortmann is escorting his guy down the line—delay, no seal, and when Smith pops through he's there along with the guy Schilling(-1) failed to cut downfield. No joy.
O31	3	5	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Rollout hitch	Stonum	Inc
Oh, man. Forcier does see Stonum open is and darts it to him, at which point a Purdue safety makes a great play to come up and bat the ball away from behind. All credit to that guy. Terrific play. But, a necessary consequence of that is Roundtree's wheel route opening up for a potential TD. He'd have to see it quick and get rid of it quick with a guy coming up to contain but maybe that's a play he makes later in his career? (CA, 0, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Missed FG(48), 30-31, 12 min 4th Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M22	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Scramble	Forcier	2
Forcier has to scramble out because Omameh(-1) and Moosman(-1) get split by a DT as they're trying to slide the protection, and then Minor(-1) gets owned by the DE he's trying to pick up. Forcier does well to move up, move out, and scramble for a few yards. (PR, 0, protection 0/3)
M24	2	8	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Edge pitch	Brown	6
Roundtree gets outside of the OLB, which isn't too hard because the OLB is lined up inside of him, and gets Brown the edge. Safety fills quickly, forcing Brown back into the flowing linebackers.
M30	3	2	Shotgun empty	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Scramble	Forcier	1
Thought this was a called play live but apparently not; the WRs are running routes. Forcier just sees the hole open up in front of him as a DT stunts around and thinks he can take it; he doesn't account for Huyge(-1) getting tossed aside like a rag doll and that guy making a tackle. Unfortunate; this really looked like it was an easy first down. Not charted.
Drive Notes: Punt, 30-38, 9 min 4th Q. Zoltan launches one after a stupid delay call because Michigan thinks about going for it.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O31	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	11
Purdue still fighting to the stretch side of these block and Minor gets a cutback lane as Michigan is blocking the backside DE and Schilling's(+1) escorted the backside DT away, leaving a crease. Moosman(+1) releases downfield late but manages to get a block on the MLB that Minor can cut behind. He then jukes the safety and is trying to cut behind another LB when he trips to the ground over Roundtree.
O20	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	20 (Pen -10)
Omameh and Moosman are trying to scoop the playside DT and manage to do it okay. Koger(+1) blocks the playside CB and the MLB misses a tackle, springing Minor into the endzone. For naught, as Huyge(-1) gets called for holding his guy. Stupid, as he got his arm up around the neck for no reason. This did not affect the play.
O30	1	20	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	--	-1
Michigan trying to get Purdue to bite on a bubble fake and go to the fade; Purdue is not having it. Forcier might have an opportunity to do something else but Huyge(-2) has gotten beat around the corner and he has to scramble up, where a linebacker and DT combine to sack. (TA, 0, protection 0/2, Huyge -2)
O31	2	21	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	QB draw	Forcier	11
Forcier does this mostly by himself as Minor(-1) whiffs his block and Forcier has to make the OLB miss; he does. He then spins through the corner's tackle and falls forward through an ankle tackle from another linebacker. Excellent run.
O20	3	10	Shotgun empty	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Out	Savoy	Inc
I'm not 100% sure this is accurate but it looks like it will be; Savoy stumbles out of his break and is nowhere near the ball as it falls to the turf. Argh. (CA, N/A, protection 1/1)
O20	4	10	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Nickel	Pass	Crazy Thing	Brown	8 – 5 Pen
On Forcier. He's got a pocket he can step into, and does, and no one's coming for him and it's fourth and ten and he chucks a lateral to Brown that has virtually no hope of getting the first down. Brown makes a meal of it, though, breaking a couple tackles and attempting to pitch the ball as he's going down. Huyge grabs it and gets the first but on review it's ruled a forward pass. Correct call. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 30-38, 4 min 4th Q. Hemingway gets a big punt return.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O11	1	10	Shotgun 2-backTE	2	1	2	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	2
Great reach by Moosman(+1) as the DT does not flow down the line; this opens up a crease. Lead-blocking RB heads outside. Argh. This leaves the MLB unblocked when Minor cuts up and he makes a tackle after a short gain.
O9	2	8	Shotgun 2-back TE	2	1	2	Base 4-3	Pass	Scramble	Forcier	7
This seems like a busted route by someone, probably Koger, since both WRs to that side just run right into the endzone. Maybe they're clearing out for Brown, but that doesn't work as an OLB is dropping directly into the area he is. Forcier does have a lot of room on the edge and eventually takes off, nearing the first down. Not filed as a TA.
O2	3	1	I-Form Big	2	2	1	Goal line	Run	Power O	Minor	1
Schilling pulls around as Michigan attacks the edge. He and Grady double the unblocked DE on the end of the line, blowing him into the endzone, and Minor runs through a diving tackle from the OLB, falling just short of the goal line.
O1	1	G	I-Form Big	2	2	1	Goal line	Run	Power O	Minor	1
Same play, though on this one Purdue is slanting and it's just a mess and Minor decides to head right upfield, picking up a touchdown when a crease magically opens just as he nears the line.
O3	2PT	2PT	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Sack	--	-3
Huyge(-2) gets mauled and Kerrigan comes around to crush Forcier. I think Purdue had covered the first read, Koger, and he was moving up to find another guy. After the game he said he was about to throw it. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown(Missed 2PT), 36-38, 2 min 4th Q. Last drive not charted as it is under extreme conditions.

Well, that wasn't too terrible.

No, it wasn't. And though Purdue is not a great defense they've been decent so far this year. They're currently #67 in total defense at about 370 yards per game, and Michigan gained 427 on 12 drives, 397 of those on the 11 actual drives they had before the looney tunes at the end. That's exceeding the average performance of Purdue opponents and I'll take that against anyone at this point in the year. Michigan got big gains on the ground, stretched the field vertically, broke out some new wrinkles, and didn't turn the ball over a billion times.

After 20, 21, 10, and 13 points of offensive production plus sufficient turnovers to choke a horse, this was a major step forward and the best performance from the unit since the Indiana game.

To show this I'll need some—

Charts?

Charts.

[Hennechart legend; MA is "marginal", screen results are in parens.]

TATE FORCIER

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
Western Michigan	2	14	1	2	1	2	-	3
Notre Dame	5	20 (6)	2	4	3	3	-	4
Eastern Michigan	1	8 (2)	1	1 (1)	1	4 (1)	-	-
Indiana	3	13 (3)	1 (1)	2	5	3	-	2
Michigan State	5	19 (3)	2	4	3	3	-	5
Iowa	1	8(1)	1	3 (2)	2	3	2	2
Delaware State	-	2 (1)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Penn State	3	9 (3)	-	4 (2)	4	2	1	1
Illinois	2	13 (6)	2	3(1)	2	2	-	2
Purdue	2	13 (6)	1	2	1	4	1 (1)	5

The Purdue zone read metric—still in its infancy—was +2 – 2 = 0. More on that a bit later.

DENARD ROBINSON

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
Western Michigan	-	1	1	1	2	-	-	-
Eastern Michigan	-	1	1 (1)	2 (1)	-	-	-	-
Indiana	-	1	1 (1)	-	-	-	-	-
Michigan State	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-
Iowa	1	2	-	-	1	1	-	-
Delaware State	-	2	2	-	-	-	-	-
Penn State	-	-	1	-	1	1	-	-

Screens held down Forcier's downfield throws. This week's downfield success rate: 9 / 16 = 56%. Not great, but the DSR is only a vague metric and I think this was one of Forcier's best games. One of the INs was a bomb under pressure, the BR was the ill-fated Brown pitch on fourth and ten, and the rest of it are TAs where his receivers were all legitimately covered. He didn't make a big mistake all game, and many of his unsuccessful attempts were making the best of a bad situation.

The big downer was the fumble, which was a huge error on Forcier's part but also an understandable one since Purdue blitzed right into the option and Forcier was not prepared to deal with the corner there. He should have eaten the ball and taken the loss, but he's a freshman running his second live triple option. I don't blame Forcier for freaking out, or Rodriguez for calling it; sometimes you do something well in practice and screw it up the first time you let it loose in the wild.

Receiverchart:

[Receiver chart explanation: throws are rated on how difficult they are to catch. A 3 is a totally routine ball that would induce groans if dropped. 2 is moderately difficult; you'd like to see players catch 50-70% of these. 1 is a circus catch on which the QB is bailed out by a great play from a WR or, more usually, not bailed out. 0 is totally uncatchable and mostly exists to chart how often a player is targeted.]

	This Game					Totals
Player	0	1	2	3		0	1	2	3
Hemingway	1	-	-	-		4	-	1/2	8/8
Mathews	-	-	-	1/1		8	1/6	3/4	12/12
Stonum	1	-	-	0/1		7	1/3	3/4	10/11
Savoy	-	-	-	2/2		2	-	1/2	6/6
Odoms	-	-	-	-		5	1/3	4/6	16/17
Grady-19	-	-	-	-		2	-	2/3	9/12
Roundtree	-	1/1	-	8/8		5	1/1	1/4	13/13
Stokes	-	-	-	-		-	-	1/1	1/1
Koger	-	-	-	-		-	3/4	4/6	7/11
Webb	-	-	-	-		1	-	-	3/5
Minor	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	1/1
Brown	-		0/1	-		-	1/4	2/4	6/7
Shaw	-	-	-	-		-	1/1	0/1	-
Smith	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	-
Grady-24	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	1/1

A good day from the receivers, and by "receivers" we mean "Roy Roundtree." The one drop didn't hurt much since it was on a screen that was going to get blown up anyway. Minor could have helped out by pulling in a low throw by Forcier, too. Other than that: Roundtree, Roundtree, Roundtree. The 1 he pulled in prevented an interception on Michigan's first drive of the day, converted a first down, and lead to a touchdown.

Plus he did this:

Martavious Odoms just saw his job come under howitzer fire. Odoms has been valuable, too, so he won't just go away, but Kelvin Grady's time just got eaten up and I think Roundtree is the starter even when Odoms is healthy. This might also presage some dual-slot formations that have been absent so far in Rodriguez's tenure at Michigan. Kid's pretty good, and quicker than  you'd think given the Hawthorne incident last week.

And this will come as no surprise given the 5 in PR above, but the protection metric is ugly again:

PROTECTION METRIC: 14/29. Huyge –5, Schilling –3, Minor –2, Ortmann –1, Shaw –1, Koger –1, Moosman –1, Omameh –1.

That is by far the lowest percentage in UFR history. The culprits are the usual by now: Huyge on the edge, Schilling getting blasted back into the pocket, and several other folk having individual moments of struggle. The only way Michigan could threaten deep was to max-protect and drop Forcier back like he was a Madden 2005 QB, and even on one of those play Forcier ended up throwing off the back foot because Shaw could not contain the guy. The two point conversion was Huyge getting beaten by Kerrigan clean.

Yuck. Is there any hope for the OL going forward?

Well, Omameh had a very good day, and not just for a redshirt freshman. His agility is as advertised:

He was sealing DTs with Moosman all day; he seemed to have a grasp on pass protection, too. He was so obviously  good that he's now your starter at RG, no questions asked, as Huyge and Dorrestein fight it out at right tackle. That's an important step forward for him. If he's languished on the bench as Ferrara got the start the hype on him would be heading towards Grady Brooks territory; as it is he's beaten out some more experienced options and played well as a redshirt freshman. You can now put him in pen somewhere on next year's line.

As for the rest of the line… man, the pass protection issues are not letting up and the second-most vulnerable guy other than whoever the right tackle is has been Schilling, which isn't good. You can sort of understand why a two-star sophomore who had only MAC offers is struggling at tackle. Schilling's at an easier spot and is a five-star junior. At this point he's probably not going to live up to the hype. That's not to say he's bad, but pass protection breakdowns from the LG spot are really frustrating, especially when there are many incidents where Schilling doesn't lose his guy but gets shoved so far back in the pocket that Forcier has nowhere to go when someone comes tearing around the right tackle.

Why does our option play make us die when we haven't run it all year?

I suggested in the game column that Forcier was maybe not at the point where the dive is an actual read, which has been explained to me is a very silly thing to suggest. More likely: it is a read that Forcier screwed up. Steve Sharik:

Purdue can defend it b/c the QB missed the read.  Both times the DE was shuffling, not crashing.  Tate should've handed it off on the dive both times.  Tate misses a ton of reads in the zone read scheme, and these times were no different.  We can't defend it b/c our defenders aren't sound in their assignments. So, whether it's us on offense or us on defense, the simple matter is that we aren't doing what we're coached to do and the opponent is. 

It doesn't make a difference what option it is, if you miss the first read (the give/pull) then bad things happen, especially if the QB pulls when he should've given.  If the QB gives when he should've pulled, the dive gets tackled for no gain.  If the QB pulls when he should've given, a negative yardage play is the best result.  And then if the QB compounds this error by pitching off a defender who is not the pitch key, then that pitch key is free to attack the pitch player, with a turnover the not just possible but likely outcome.

Later,
Steve

This is not hugely surprising given Forcier's lack of experience. I doubt we see this option the rest of

Heroes?

Roundtree, Forcier, and Minor.

Not so heroes?

The entire offensive line in pass protection, especially Huyge and Schilling.

What does it mean for Wisconsin and beyond?

After a brief period of suck, the Wisconsin defense has resumed being pretty good: they're 19th in rushing D and 22nd in total D. They've got some issues in the secondary—Ben Chappell just went off for 323 yards on 25 of 35 passing, and the Purdue implosion was mostly on Purdue receivers—but are good about getting to the quarterback, which means Michigan might see a bunch of receiver run open as Forcier scrambles for his life.

Michigan's rushing offense continues to be good, not  great, and I think they'll be able to grind out a respectable total if Minor is healthy. Whether Michigan scores a lot will be up to the pass protection and Tate.

For the long-term future: the sudden emergence of Roundtree and Omameh, both freshmen, is an excellent sign. The slot position now seems solid and picking up another solid lineman for next year means Michigan will have kind-of-sort-of four starters back; this is the silver lining of the Molk injury. The dark cloud: if Molk is available, Michigan probably wins at least one of Michigan State, Iowa, or Purdue, right? Aigh.

Picture Pages: you see, Rudy, sometimes you just need to break down a play that's representative of a larger trend. This series picks out a play or two per game that seem significant in the grand scheme of things, Theo, and attempts to explain why. Vanessa.

I brought this up in UFR and wanted to make it clearer so here goes. This is a first and 15 on Michigan's first drive of the day.

Michigan lines up in one of their common sets, a three-wide shotgun look. Here the tight end is lined up as an H-back. Michigan often used the h-back as a pass blocker for Forcier rollouts, but this time he's going to go with the play. Western aligns in a 4-3 look with the nickel back shaded inside of the slot receiver. Michigan will run a zone read, and Western will do a version of a scrape exchange. In brief: in a scrape, the backside defensive end will take off after the tailback instead of maintaining contain. A weakside linebacker or corner will provide QB contain, thus hopefully minimizing or eliminating the quarterback's athleticism edge over the defender he's dealing with.

Below is the handoff point. As Western did basically the whole game, the unblocked backside end takes off after the tailback. Since this is the guy Forcier is reading, he pulls the ball out. A couple points: Michigan has six blockers against six defenders here and should be content to hand the ball off. As we'll see, Brown's going to end up with a lot of room.

A few moments later we see the scraper coming in: he's the corner/LB who was lined up over Grady. He comes flying in and threatens to tackle Forcier in the backfield. The scrape exchange Michigan saw a lot last year saw the WLB head outside; this one is less vulnerable to the veer or other quick-hitting backside plays that exploit the fact that your WLB is flying around the edge. But there's an obvious cost: HOLY GOD LOOK AT THE SLOT RECEIVER.

Forcier is, in fact, looking at a spectacularly open guy on a bubble route. One of the Western safeties is coming up but he's inside of and ten yards away from a guy who's quicker than him. At best he squares up and holds the gain down. If he misses a tackle Grady is born to run.

Also note the line moving to the second level and sealing those defensive tackles. Michigan had three or four plays like this where the tailback shot up to cavernous gaps in the line of scrimmage without the ball. And this isn't a reaction to Forcier's decision to pull the ball yet; only the WLB has seen that. The frames above make it pretty clear that if Michigan had handed the ball off Schilling was going to cut this guy off.

Forcier, unfortunately, decides against the bubble and cuts directly upfield:

Molk has finished burying the playside DT and if Brown had the ball he'd be cruising, as the WLB who peeled off to Forcier was about to get his clock cleaned by Schilling. But Forcier pulled the ball and then made a poor read, so he's got one option:

Four yards.

Takeaways:

• Just because the backside DE is crashing down doesn't mean you have to pull the ball. This would have been a big gainer if Forcier handed it off.
• Scrape exchanges are not a magic pill. They pull defenders out of position and the right play call—or read—can exploit them.
• Forcier is, yes, a freshman. He made a number of mistakes against Western of this variety.
• But even so it's nice to have a guy like Forcier who can turn his mistake into positive yards. Michigan had a lot of screwups in game one but most of them still went forward. That's a huge difference from last year.