tony posada

Previously: 2008 Offense, 2008 Defense, 2009 Defense, 2009 Quarterbacks, 2009 Offense, 2010 Offense, 2010 Defense

Michigan's best offensive recruit of 2011 entered the program as a walk-on. [Barron]

It's that time of the offseason when I go back through the recruiting profiles for the class that just finished its five-year cycle, which brings us to...

Oh no. Ohhhhhhhh no. It's the 2011 hybrid RichRod/Hoke class, an underwhelming group at the time—ranked 26th in the composite—that didn't come close to living up to expectations. I promise this exercise will be less painful next year. Until then, let this serve as a painful reminder of how far the program has come in the last couple years.

This post on the offense will be mercifully short, at least; there were only seven scholarship players on that side of the ball in the class, and two didn't make it through their first fall camp.

Forcier Comparison = Accuracy

Michigan snake-oiled three-star dual-threat quarterback Russell Bellomy from Purdue shortly before signing day. By the time Brian got around to writing up Bellomy's profile, Shane Morris had already committed to the 2013 class, while Devin Gardner was waiting in the wings behind Denard Robinson. Bellomy's profile didn't exactly scream "future starter" regardless of the competition:

So what have they won? A developmental prospect. Bellomy's a bit like Justice Hayes in that he seems like a better fit for the offense Michigan just dumped. That might not be a big deal long term—unlike Hayes, Michigan actually got interested in Bellomy after the transition—but Bellomy is not Chad Henne. He's described as an "efficient spread offense QB" and completed only 58% of his passes on a run-heavy team. He rarely broke the 20 attempt barrier. Opposing coaches($) say stuff like "he was much more effective in the pocket than we expected" and "you have to respect his passing ability as well." He needs work.

Bellomy's YMRMFSPA was "pick a Forcier" due to his mobility and reputation as a "riverboat gambler." The comparison worked in that Bellomy flamed out of the program. You know the story well: Bellomy entered the 2012 Nebraska game over Devin Gardner, then moonlighting at receiver, when Denard Robinson hurt his elbow, had a disastrous three-interception performance, and never saw meaningful time again. He transferred to UT-San Antonio for his senior season, attempted ten passes as their backup quarterback, and left the program only a month into the 2015 season.

[Hit THE JUMP for, well, more pain.]

nice while it lasted

Exit one of two large grinding guards:

A Michigan athletic department spokesman confirmed Monday that true freshman Tony Posada has left the Wolverines' football program.

The spokesman did not elaborate on the departure.

You have to wonder if the reason was because of conditioning. Posada showed up at over 340; unlike Chris Bryant that was about 30 pounds more than his reported playing weight.

Posada's departure isn't immediately painful since Michigan's starting guards both have two more years of eligibility. It does force a redshirt freshman (or worse) into the starting lineup in 2013. After Barnum and Omameh graduate the guard depth chart will look like this:

1. Redshirt sophomore Chris Bryant
2. Various members of the 2012 recruiting class

Michigan now has no option but to take a sixth OL this year, something they were planning on anyway. They might even go to seven if this was unexpected—and it probably was since the kid just hit campus. This may push Michigan's number to 27 this year, which would allow them to take a seventh OL or Danny O'Brien (yes, please).

Previously: CB Greg Brown, CB/S Tamani Carter, CB Blake Countess, CB Delonte Hollowell, CB Raymon Taylor, LB Antonio Poole, LB Desmond Morgan, LB Frank Clark, LB Kellen Jones, DE Keith Heitzman, DE Chris Rock, DE Brennen Beyer, and OL Jack Miller.

Tony Posada is one of two very large persons Rich Rodriguez recruited just in time for Brady Hoke to deploy them as Wisconsin-approved donkey haters. It's unknown why Rodriguez decided to grab not one but two 340-pound mashers in his final recruiting class, but whatever the reason he's given Michigan a bit of a head start at guard as it transitions back to MANBALL.

Eventually, anyway. Three-forty is not a good weight to be if you want to play early. In high school he was listed at 320 or even 310. While 320 is the weight at which people start fibbing you lighter, not heavier, it's likely Posada put on some bad weight in the offseason. There is no weight between 320 and 340 that is good. And he was listed at 6-6 in these articles, so… yeah.

Further delaying his debut is Posada's actual height. It mean's he's a guard all the way. The recruiting rankings mostly declare him a tackle, but tackles aren't 6'4" anymore. Michigan has two junior starters at guard, so he won't be in contention for a job for two years.

If he's fit by then he's got a shot. A lot of people have written Posada off after his Godzilla-like appearance on the roster but his profile isn't actually that bad. Michigan offered Posada on Signing Day, before anyone else had. Texas Tech was his other finalist($); Missouri and USF were in the final four.

When Rodriguez got fired Mississippi State and Rutgers tried to get back in($). Posada actually took a visit to Starkville but decided to stick with Michigan after they threw him in jail for picking flowers. This is a Johnny Cash reference, not reality. In reality he is not from Mississippi and is thus unaffected by the local black hole. He also reported a Tennessee offer, FWIW. Florida said($) "lose ten pounds and we'll offer you," which is probably just a nice way to say "wait," and then he didn't and Florida moved on.

So that's a decent list of schools. Posada had more recruiting cred than Mark Huyge, who's turned into an on-and-off multi-year starter.

His scouting reports aren't bad either. ESPN($):

Posada has great size along with enough explosion and playing strength to dominate defenders at his present level of play…. Possesses enough flexibility to work out of both a two and three point stance showing the agility and balance to block quick on the line movement. Does a nice job when asked to reach front side with a quick up field first step. Can play on his feet in space however quick flow linebackers could present problems. This prospect demonstrates quick set ability from a two point stance; flashes good bend for his size, can slide and play flat footed to the deep set point without leaning in or crossing his feet. … arm length and quick hands should be an asset; does a nice job working to get his hands back inside the frame. This is a tough guy with an aggressive finishing attitude.

Even if he was 30 pounds lighter when that assessment was being made that's a thorough, positive evaluation with multiple references to good feet and "bend"—the lack of which has seen many highly touted OL flame out.

The Florida recruiting specialists at the Tha Ringer have a more reserved outlook:

- OL Tony Posada | 6'6, 315 | 2011 | Committed to Michigan
He best projects as an offensive guard to me, maybe a right tackle in a downfield running attack. His feet are really slow to get started -- speed rushers just kill him. Plays with a lot of intensity, but lets his emotions get the best of him at times. Loves to maul defenders in the run game.

Mauling defenders, you say? Brady Hoke points exuberantly!

Brady likes it

Scout's Mike Bakas has a similar assessment($), asserting that he is college-ready when it comes to the ground but will require a year or two if he's not going to get his quarterback killed:

He's very strong and has the ability to just maul defenders at the point of attack. … big enough where he could stand to shed a few pounds. He's not a kid you will often see 30-40 yards downfield throwing blocks. While he can manhandle defenders, he can also struggle against smaller, quicker guys who can give him troubles. He has more raw size, power, and strength right now than athleticism, quickness, and flexibility. … has some upside, especially in the running game, and is probably a couple years away from being ready to make a big impact in the passing game.

Coach quotes also play up the mauling. An opponent($):

"We thought maybe we had them but they made the decision in the second half to turn the football over to [five-star tailback] James Wilder and they just ran behind Posada play after play after play, and there was really nothing we could do about it."

Manatee's offensive coordinator also praised him for never taking a snap off: "When you're that big and as skilled as he is at this level you're just going to dominate and [your] biggest obstacle is really yourself because you have to decide how aggressive you'll be."

Citing a lack of film, Touch The Banner doesn't say much more than "dude is a guard."

Dude is a guard, and clearly a mauling, pounding drive blocker. He's going to have to turn a lot of bad weight into good before he steps on the field at Michigan, and it's possible his weight and pass protection struggle will condemn him to the bench forever. If he manages to slim down he could be the vanguard of This Is Physical Michigan.

His coach thinks that's happening:

"Tony's best football is ahead of him," said Plant coach Robert Weiner. "I mean he is on the upswing for sure and has gotten so much better year to year, even the last few months. He's a student of the game and has all the physical traits to be another great lineman at Michigan. We are all real excited for him."

Etc.: Commitment video. More commit video. Some guy who thinks he's 1985 John Cusack interviews him. Seems sharp in this Q&A. Photo gallery.

Some people are jerks:

"We didn't know if he still had a scholarship at Michigan," Christine Posada said. "We had other colleges calling him and telling him that he wouldn't have a scholarship at Michigan and he should come to their school.

"They were scaring this 17-year-old kid."

Don't tell Brady:

Posada also believed he was a good fit in good Rich Rodriguez's spread offensive attack.

"I like Coach Rod's offense," he said. "The offensive tackle isn't squished next to a tight end at the line of scrimmage. It's a power football scheme that still allows you to be physical and dominant."

Why Alex Mitchell? Like Posada, Mitchell was big. Mitchell was reputed to be a tackle when he was a recruit but showed up monstrous and slid inside quickly. He then emerged into a starter and run mauler before his drive evaporated. He packed on pounds, quit the team, was begged back despite being ever more corpulent, and played during Infamous Carr Denouement.

Mitchell was higher rated but didn't pan out; Posada's career hinges on avoiding the hamfate that befell his predecessor.

Guru Reliability: High. Posada was healthy; scouting reports are consistent, rankings are pretty much in the same range; Plant is uber-scouted.

General Excitement Level: Moderate-minus. The recruiting rankings and scouting reports warrant a moderate; coming in at 340 is a bad sign.

Projection: Lock to redshirt. Michigan has Khoury and Mealer at guard ahead of him on the two deep and while Chris Bryant is equally Weisian he's also rated a lot higher. After that he'll compete against Bryant and the incoming flood of freshmen for two starting jobs. He'll have a year on the freshmen, but they'll have recruiting ratings and their ability to show up at a more ready-to-play weight on their side. I'd say his shot at starting is 30%.

It's a useless tradition around here to look at the roster and see who's grown to massive size and who is lean destructive sinew because All Weight Changes Are Positive.

Presenting weight changes that are all positive. I bolded things I find interesting:

Items!

• Where is the addition of beef? I highlighted the starting offensive line above. They gained a total of 11 pounds between them, or one pound more than David Molk did last year, when he was the least inflated OL on the team. If Michigan's running power with these guys it might not go so well.
• Where is the addition of beef: answer. It's in the outside-linebackery parts of the defense. Craig Roh's added 18 additional pounds; now up 31 from his arrival at Michigan he is legitimately DL sized. The projected starters at SLB and WLB both put on around 15 pound.
• The subtraction of beef. Is where you'd expect it: the tubby tubs on the interior of the DL. Will Campbell, Quinton Washington, and Richard Ash are all relatively svelte now.
• Maybe Wilkins is eventually plausible. I was shocked to see Wilkins came in at 270 and is now 280. He got blown up in the Spring Game but in a couple years he could be a reasonable option at three-tech.
• All weight gain is good! Michael Shaw is eight pounds heavier and better able to take the pounding of the Big Ten.
• All weight loss is good! Vincent Smith lost eight pounds and will return to the jackrabbit ways he flashed as a freshman.
• BEEFCAKE. I hope Ricardo Miller loves protein shakes, because he's added 17 pounds and is still ridiculously small at tight end.

Notable freshmen:

• Tony Posada and Chris Bryant. Good lord: both enter at essentially 340. They should form a tag team themed around natural disasters. Neither can be in any shape to play right now and unless Posada sheds a ton of weight he is a guard all the way at 6'4". Also monstrous: walk-on Gary Yerden at 6'5", 333.
• Antonio Poole. With Kellen Jones gone he's got a major opportunity to play right away and at 212 he's not much slimmer than Jones. Big difference between that and the 195 he was reputed to be.
• Greg Brown. While the rest of the freshman defensive backs enter at a willowy 176 or less Brown is packing 192. Good or bad… eh, probably not so good. But he did play well in spring.
• Chris Rock. Enters at 267. Will be a three-tech by WMU.
• Chris Barnett. Enters at 278. Redshirt coming with the knee and all; will be interesting to see if that goes down next year.
• Thomas Rawls. 5'10", 219 is pretty compact. Hayes is listed at the same height and a cornerback-like 176.

Weight gains or losses are the key to domination. We has them. Get out of our ways.

With the wheels seemingly falling off the Class of 2011, it's going to take one heck of a finish for the Wolverines to end with a respectable commitment list. For current targets, commits, etc., check out the 2011 Michigan Football Recruiting Board. If you have recruiting tips or questions, tweet @varsityblue or e-mail [email protected].

Visits

With only two weekends before Signing Day left for official visits, each one carries a lot of importance for Michigan's new coaching staff. Here's this weekend's roster:

• OH TE/LB Frank Clark (pictured at right). The Cleveland Glenville product was also a target under the former staff. Rivals got a reaction to the hiring of Greg Mattison ($, info in header), so it's safe to say the Wolverines want him on defense.
• MI CB Raymon Taylor. He's an Indiana decommit who has already visited once this winter, for a bowl practice. Former teammate of Devin Gardner.
• CA CB Stefan McClure. Offered by Michigan (see below). He is a friend of former Michigan DB Leon Hall, and was a target of San Diego State. He speaks highly of Hoke and it sounds like he may have even committed to the Aztecs if they had played in a more prestigious conference.
• FL OL Tony Posada. Visiting Michigan this weekend, and plans to remain committed to the Wolverines, despite listening to what other schools have to say. He took an official visit to Mississippi State last weekend, but still says he's a Wolverine if they'll have him (and use his talents properly).
• CA K Matt Wile. Michigan has offered Wile, and the Army All-American is a strong possibility - who Michigan saw in-home the other night. With Matt Goudis out of the class, Michigan is looking for replacements. Derrick Mitchell, currently a minor leaguer in the Philadelphia Phillies system, considered walking on, but it doesn't seem likely at this point.

As always, things are liable to change as the week progresses.

Commits, Kinda Commits, Ex-Commits

TX LB Commit Kellen Jones visited Colorado last weekend and is still being recruited by Miami (YTM), Florida, and Arkansas. However, his dad says:

"I think it will have to be a really rare circumstance for Kellen to not be a Michigan Wolverine, but we have to be prepared.”

That article was published the day before Hoke was named, and after the naming of Greg Mattison as DC, Jones is excited about Michigan, canceling his upcoming visits to other schools.

MD CB Blake Countess seemed only a little iffy, but took an official visit to Penn State last weekend, and enjoyed himself enough to tweet about how it was better than expected, and "making this decision a lot harder." Michigan is in-home today, and Penn State tomorrow. By the end of the week, we should have a much better idea of Countess' ultimate plans.

MI DE Brennen Beyer sat down with Coach Hoke ($, info in header) the other day, and seems solid to Michigan.

MI OL decommit Jake Fisher visited Michigan State last weekend, and has Florida this weekend, and Oregon the weekend following that. If Brady Hoke wants to get him on campus before Signing Day, it will have to be on a midweek unofficial. Fisher has officially decommitted from Michigan, but the Wolverines are hopeful to re-secure him. According to his high school coach, he's still considering Michigan, but will take his remaining visits. Tom says it's not looking good for the Wolverines.

The next trio of former Michigan commits, on the other hand, are not going to come back to the maize-and-blue, as all have decided to take their talents to South Beach:

• OH LB Antonio Kinard probably wasn't going to be accepted as a class of 2011 commit.
• FL CB Dallas Crawford eliminated Michigan last week, and now he'll be a Cane.
• CA K Matt Goudis officially visited Coral Gables along with Crawford, and has also pledged to join Miami's class of 2011.

Finishing the Class

It sounds like Michigan is the favorite to land SC WR Hakeem Flowers. He announces on Sunday.

IL OL Chris Bryant was waiting to hear from Brady Hoke, and took matters into his own hands over the weekend. On his way home from a visit to Pittsburgh (where former Michigan assistants...), he talked with Coach Hoke, and things went well:

My parents are both comfortable, and so am I. They asked their questions and said it was a great conversation overall. I feel comfortable with him too. He was a funny guy, he's a player's coach. He's someone that you would want to coach you... I had a good relationship with the coaches there before, but coaching is a business. It's just an adjustment and you need to go on with it. Michigan is Michigan, and they're not going to just bring anyone in. I still really like Michigan.

Before the visit, Tom said there wasn't too much worry as long as it went well, so Michigan is in very good position with Bryant. He announces a week from Friday.

Michigan may have extended an offer to Minnesota commit KS QB Max Shortell, but the kid says he's only interested in Minnesota. Sounds like a similar situation to FL DT Travarris Saulsberry and his teammate, DE Jordan Williams, both of whom are committed to Tennessee.

Among other new players on the radar, CA DB Stefan McClure and IL OL Pat Flavin (an Illinois commit) are now getting Michigan attention - with McClure already netting an offer.

The Wolverines have also offered LA CB Floyd Raven ($, info in header), and are still showing interest in another Louisiana prospect at the position, Daren Kitchen ($, info in header).

Peace Out, Ya'll

Happy Trails, NJ TE Jack Tabb. He committed to North Carolina ($, info in header) after being unable to get in touch with Brady Hoke.

Auburn has accepted a commitment from NC WR/LB Kris Frost. Michigan might continue pursuing him ("hey, that other school doesn't even want you"), but he seems set on being a Tiger.

Last week, Tom said Michigan had "a great chance" with CA WR Devin Lucien, but Michigan now intends to recruit him only for defense, so it seems unlikely he'll end up a Wolverine. Lucien announces January 30th.

PA DE Deion Barnes will announce tomorrow between Georgia and Penn State. He crossed Michigan off his list with the coaching change.

With the coaching situation unsettled as it is, covering the day-to-day of the 2011 recruiting class is a little... short-sighted at this point. Instead, let's talk about the prospects already in the class, what the coaching change means for them, and the prospects whose interest in Michigan hasn't changed (or has dropped off completely) with the change. Hopefully, things will be back to normal next week. First things first:

Goodbye, Dee Hart

The writing's been on the wall for a while in this recruitment. As Michigan's season stumbled along to 7-6 after a 5-0 start, FL RB Demetrius Hart seemed to be looking elsewhere, especially to play with his buddy Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix at Alabama. Although Hart says his mind isn't yet made up, it appears that he is indeed Crimson Tide-bound - he announces a decision at the Army All-American Game on Saturday. With Rodriguez out the door, chances are nil that he recommits to the Wolverines.

Keeping it Together

Since the coaching situation is in such a serious state of flux, it's hard to know where to go from here. Among the current commits, OH CB Greg Brown is 100% to land in the class, because he's already enrolled in Ann Arbor.

Prospects who have committed since the turmoil began (MI LB Desmond Morgan, MD CB Blake Countess - strong with Michigan ($) - and CA K Matt Goudis) knew what they were possibly getting into at the time, and are also likely to be solid.

After that, most of the local-ish commits are solid, including OH DE/OL Jack Miller, OH DT Chris Rock, MI DE Brennen Beyer, and MI CB Delonte Hollowell. Though he's located in Texas, LB Kellen Jones is also a longtime Michigan fan who's likely to stick no matter what. MI OL Jake Fisher will look around a little bit, but plans to talk to the new head coach before considering a decommitment.

That leaves FL CB Dallas Crawford and FL OL Tony Posada as the largest question marks. People close to Crawford told Tom that he plans to stick with Michigan, but later opened up his recruitment, and he's told local source that he no longer considers himself a Michigan commit. Posada will wait to see who the new headman is before making any decisions. He's getting interest from Oregon, Notre Dame, and other schools.

OH LB Antonio Kinard's status with Michigan is still a question mark, regardless of who the coach is. At this time, it looks like Hart is likely to be the only defection in the class (coaching change-related, at least).

Going Forward

Michigan is in very good position with NC WR/LB Kris Frost (firing Rodriguez will only affect him a bit because he's made his decision based on school, not coach) and IL OL Chris Bryant (down to Michigan and Arizona, January 21st decision). I think those two are likely to end up in Michigan's class no matter who the coach is.

FL S Wayne Lyons also likes Michigan, but committing to a coach-less school might be too much for him, as he plans to announce at Saturday's Army All-American Game. CA WR Devin Lucien may be in the same boat, but with a decision further in the future - late January ($, info in header), which Tom nails down as the 30th.

Unfortunately, until a coach is hired, most of the news we hear from individual prospects is going to be about dropping the Wolverines from consideration, such as KY LB Lamar Dawson eliminating the Wolverines ($, info in header),

Etc.

Michigan has a couple prospects of interest in Saturday's Army All-American Game (Noon on NBC) - including some who are deciding live during the game, such as Frost and Lyons - and Sam Webb brings the latest info on those guys.

Note: 2012 updates will be on hiatus until after Signing Day.