thomas kithier

will not be missed [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

While Michigan's 2021-22 roster is mostly set, the same can't be said for much of the Big Ten—or, really, most programs in the country between a packed transfer portal, the pandemic year option for seniors to return without counting against the scholarship cap, and up-in-the-air NBA Draft decisions.

There's been a lot of movement over the last few days, including this morning's announcement that Northwestern shooter Miller Kopp is transferring within the conference to Indiana. This week, I'll be going over where each Big Ten program's roster stands in alphabetical order, and I'll rank each team's current outlook at the end. Here are some important dates to keep in mind as players make decisions about their future:

  • May 30: Last day to apply for NBA Draft as an early entry
  • June 21-27: NBA Draft Combine
  • July 19: Last day for early entry to withdraw from NBA Draft

I made sure to note which players intend to sign with an agent, making them ineligible to withdraw, and which have left the door open to come back to school. I've also noted which players are in the transfer portal—which, as Indiana has displayed, doesn't prevent a return—and which have chosen another school. Returning seniors able to use the COVID waiver for an extra year are referred to as "super seniors."

Illinois

Key departures: G Ayo Dosunmu (draft w/ agent), F Giorgi Bezhanishvili (draft or overseas), W Adam Miller (transfer)

Key additions/super seniors: G Trent Frazier (super senior), C Omar Payne (Florida transfer), G Alfonso Plummer (Utah transfer)

Up in the air: C Kofi Cockburn (draft w/o agent), W Da'Monte Williams (possible super senior)

The Illini are going to look very different next season. Ayo Dosunmu is hiring an agent for the draft and won't be back. Kofi Cockburn also isn't expected to return after declaring over the weekend—it's rare for a player to return when they test the draft waters a second time, which is the case with Cockburn. Giorgi Bezhanishvili is going to the professional ranks too, though his role diminished in conjunction with Cockburn's emergence.

In a surprise move, former top-50 recruit Adam Miller entered the transfer portal despite starting all 31 games as a freshman. He hasn't said much since entering the portal and has been connected with Arizona, DePaul, Kentucky, and Michigan, though that seems largely based on his recruitment out of high school. He showed promise as a spot-up shooter and defender.

Brad Underwood added another former top-50 recruit in Florida transfer Omar Payne, who's mostly come off the bench in his first two seasons and was passed by Michigan transfer Colin Castleton in 2020-21. Payne blocks a lot of shots but is still quite raw; not that this is a fair comparison, but he won't come close to replicating Cockburn's production. (He may, however, try to take someone's head off.) Illinois needs big leaps from sophomores Coleman Hawkins and Jacob Grandison to have an above-average frontcourt as things stand; they're a strong candidate to hit the transfer portal for another big.

Getting Trent Frazier back for a fifth year helped shore up a backcourt that'll dearly miss Dosunmu, as did this weekend's addition of Utah grad transfer Alfonso Plummer, a 6'1 guard who's a career 40% three-point shooter on high volume and a teammate of Illini guard Andre Curbelo on the Puerto Rico national team. That helps offset the loss of Miller on offense and then some, though the undersized Plummer is unlikely to match him as a defender—his defensive metrics from Utah aren't good.

The Illini don't have much in the way of instant-impact freshmen unless someone plays above their ranking. The three-player 2021 class is headlined by a pair of 6'7 small forwards who both slipped just inside the top 100 on the 247 Composite, though recent three-star SG signee Brandon Podziemski has significantly differing opinions on his talent after posting huge numbers against underwhelming Wisconsin high school competition.

It's hard not to see this team taking a significant step back in 2022. There isn't another Dosunmu or Cockburn coming in, or even an Adam Miller. The next couple years of Underwood's tenure may make or break his time in Champaign.

[Hit THE JUMP for Indiana's wild offseason, Iowa's rough one, MSU's impact transfer, and more.]

this is fine [Bryan Fuller]

I thought Rutgers would be the least likely team to find itself atop the conference standings this season. I was wrong!

Northwestern went 3-17 in the Big Ten last year. They're now 3-0 this season after following up last week's upset of Michigan State with victories against Indiana and Ohio State. Here are the results from last week's conference slate (home team listed second):

  • Purdue 55, Iowa 70
  • Nebraska 53, Wisconsin 67
  • Rutgers 68, Ohio State 80
  • Penn State 81, Illinois 98
  • Northwestern 74, Indiana 67
  • Iowa 95, Minnesota 102 (OT)
  • Wisconsin 85, Michigan State 76
  • Michigan 80, Nebraska 69
  • Maryland 70, Purdue 73
  • Indiana 60, Illinois 69
  • Ohio State 70, Northwestern 71

It was a particularly good week for Northwestern and Illinois and a rough one for Indiana, which lost to both aforementioned teams. Meanwhile, the most entertaining game of the week was Iowa's late collapse and eventual overtime loss at Minnesota. The Hawkeyes still can't guard anybody.

The Standings

Now ordered by conference record since everyone has actually played multiple Big Ten games.

  Record   KP/Torvik Avg   OFFENSE   DEFENSE
Team Overall Big Ten Nat Rk (change) Proj. B1G Rec. KenPom Torvik KenPom Torvik
NWern 6-1 3-0 46.5 (up 6.5) 10-10 56th 38th 45th 45th
WIS 8-1 2-0 3.5 (down 0.5) 14.5-5.5 9th 7th 4th 5th
U-M 7-0 2-0 14.0 (up 0.5) 12-8 10th 11th 30th 32nd
ILL 7-3 3-1 6.5 (up 3) 13-7 5th 5th 38th 47th
RUT 6-1 2-1 20.5 (down 1) 11-9 32nd 33rd 15th 18th
PUR 7-3 2-1 34.5 (down 5.5) 10.5-9.5 33rd 50th 36th 28th
IOWA 7-2 1-1 8.0 (up 2) 11.5-8.5 2nd 2nd 92nd 141st
MIN 8-1 1-1 45.5 (up 9) 9-11 22nd 45th 58th 66th
OSU 7-2 1-2 21.5 (up 0.5) 9.5-10.5 8th 9th 48th 80th
IND 5-4 0-2 20.5 (down 6) 9.5-10.5 57th 64th 10th 6th
MSU 6-2 0-2 32.0 (down 4) 9-11 11th 19th 61st 67th
PSU 3-3 0-2 47.5 (down 5) 8-12 27th 28th 72nd 61st
UMD 5-3 0-2 52.5 (up 1.5) 7.5-12.5 16th 24th 84th 117th
NEB 4-5 0-2 103.0 (up 3.5) 4-16 148th 138th 98th 48th

The top-to-bottom strength of the conference is remarkable; 13 of the 14 teams are inside the top 55 nationally when you average KenPom and Torvik rankings. KenPom predicts all 13 of those teams to finish with at least eight conference wins, leaving Nebraska—which isn't an awful bottom-end power conference team!—with a projected 3-17 record.

Even with that 3-0 start, Northwestern is predicted to finish .500 in Big Ten play. Ohio State and Indiana are projected to finish with losing conference records despite sitting just outside the top 20 teams in the country; ditto MSU at #32. It's a scarily strong league; the Big Ten and Big 12 are well in front of the rest of the pack in KenPom's conference rankings with the former topping the list. Fox Sports' latest (way too early) bracket has 11 B1G squads in the field with Wisconsin/Iowa as two-seeds and Michigan/Illinois as three-seeds.

[Hit THE JUMP for five-out Northwestern, State's terrible defensive profile, and more.]

M Among Finalists For Justin Smith

Four-star 2017 IL wing Justin Smith announced his final seven schools on Monday, and despite being the only school not to put forth an offer yet, Michigan made the cut along with Illinois, Indiana, Stanford, Villanova, Wisconsin, and Xavier. Smith was at Michigan's team camp in June and the coaches followed him closely throughout the recent evaluation period; he's expected to be back on campus August 14th, when he could very well land an offer.

In a thread on the Scout board, Brian Snow mentioned that Villanova, Stanford, Michigan, and Indiana are likely ahead of the other three schools, and official visits—Smith plans to use them—will play a huge role. Smith looks like he'd be a great fit at Michigan; he's long, athletic, and boasts impressive court vision for a point guard, let alone a 6'7" wing.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]