steve breaston
WITH SPECIAL GUEST JOHN NAVARRE
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Previously: 1879, 1901, 1918, 1925, 1932, 1940, 1947, 1950, 1964, 1973, 1976, 1980, 1985 p.1& p.2, 1988, 1991, 1999, 2011 p.1 & p.2
[Writeup and player after THE JUMP]
No Twitterverse this week. Instead, we shall plumb the depths of our collective sadness.
We live in some the headiest of times of modern Michigan fandom. The basketball team is coming off a NCAA runner-up season and it is bringing in another bumper crop of highly-ranked recruits. Brady Hoke and Greg Mattison are in the early stages of assembling some sort of Megazord. Michigan’s facilities are new and shiny and fantastic. But to move to the future, it is important to understand the pain of the past.
So, with a few weeks before anything actually happens in the sports world, this seems like a good time to try to answer a simple, cathartic question: what was the worst moment to be a Michigan fan?
Like the Highlander, there can be only one. So I guess this is our search for the Lowlander. Use whatever criteria you wish, but bear in mind what we’re trying to determine. We’re limiting the competition to the 1990’s and on. Obviously crappy things happened before that, but many of us can’t remember too much farther back. The events in question have been divided into four regions:
- The Daggers Region: It was there. It was so close. WE COULDA HAD HIM, MAN. And then... lightning bolt blue screen of death.
- The What-Could-Have-Been Region: The quantum mechanical gateway to an alternate universe in which we were showered with glory and the heavens rained Pop-Tarts and pleasing music played throughout the land.
- The Well-That-Was-Thoroughly-Unenjoyable Region: These were the games or events that hurt your soul from start to finish. Nothing about them was pleasant. Hope was crushed consistently and repeatedly, and then The Fates really went to work on you.
- The General FML Region: Generic embarrassments. A catch-all for the stuff over the years that still has you saying, "ugh, don't even get me started on ______"
We’ll cover the first two regions this week, and the other two soon enough.
I’ve included some concise arguments for and against the thing in question being the worst thing ever. As a palate cleanser, for each entry I’ve also included a comparable event that went Michigan’s way. The wonderful Yang to the craptastic Yin, if you will. When you’re done reading, Vote HERE: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/99RQK2Y.
Again: read. THEN VOTE. Then cry a little.
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Are you ready for this? I mean, we’re gonna pick at some serious wounds here. Okay. Let’s do this. (after the jump)
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Recently, Football Study Hall provided a spreadsheet of epic length to anyone who wanted it detailing not only catches and yards for the 2005-2011 seasons, but "targets"—ie, the number of times a guy had the ball tossed in his direction. FSH did this for all of D-I. I sliced out the other 119 teams to focus on Michigan.
This data spans a fascinating period in Michigan history:
- 2005-2007 are the last three years of the Henne era, except 2007 is a third Henne, a third Mallett, and a third injured Henne who shouldn't be playing but Mallett is insane.
- 2008 is the Threet-Sheridan disaster.
- 2009 is mostly Forcier.
- 2010 and 2011 are mostly Denard, with 2010 RR's best shot at a great offense and 2011 the first year of Borges.
Here's the interesting stuff that came out.
YARDS PER TARGET
The top 20 (min 10 targets). Bet yourself a dollar you can guess #1:
RK | Year | Player | Targets | Catches | YdsPerTarget | YdsPerCatch |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2011 | Junior Hemingway | 58 | 34 | 12.1 | 20.6 |
2 | 2010 | Martavious Odoms | 20 | 16 | 12.1 | 15.1 |
3 | 2010 | Kevin Koger | 17 | 14 | 11.7 | 14.2 |
4 | 2006 | Mario Manningham | 64 | 38 | 11.0 | 18.5 |
5 | 2011 | Jeremy Gallon | 42 | 31 | 10.8 | 14.6 |
6 | 2010 | Junior Hemingway | 56 | 32 | 10.6 | 18.5 |
7 | 2006 | Tyler Ecker | 15 | 12 | 10.3 | 12.9 |
8 | 2009 | Junior Hemingway | 26 | 16 | 10.1 | 16.4 |
9 | 2010 | Kelvin Grady | 21 | 17 | 10.0 | 12.4 |
10 | 2010 | Sam McGuffie | 39 | 39 | 9.8 | 9.8 |
11 | 2007 | Carson Butler Jr. | 25 | 20 | 9.8 | 12.3 |
12 | 2009 | LaTerryal Savoy | 17 | 12 | 9.6 | 13.6 |
13 | 2009 | Roy Roundtree | 46 | 32 | 9.4 | 13.6 |
14 | 2006 | Adrian Arrington | 58 | 40 | 9.4 | 13.6 |
15 | 2005 | Mario Manningham | 48 | 27 | 9.2 | 16.4 |
16 | 2009 | Martavious Odoms | 30 | 22 | 9.1 | 12.4 |
17 | 2011 | Vincent Smith | 17 | 11 | 8.8 | 13.5 |
18 | 2010 | Roy Roundtree | 107 | 72 | 8.7 | 13.0 |
19 | 2011 | Martavious Odoms | 15 | 7 | 8.7 | 18.7 |
20 | 2011 | Drew Dileo | 14 | 9 | 8.6 | 13.4 |
You win a dollar from yourself. Junior Hemingway is the king of yards per target. Not only does he share the #1 spot with Martavious Odoms, he also finishes #6 and #8. It's too bad this data doesn't go a couple seasons further back, allowing us to have a YPT battle royale between Hemingway and Braylon Edwards.
The other thing that jumps off the page is the impact of the spread. The only pro-style WR to crack the top ten was Mario Manningham's 2006 season. Tyler Ecker also made the top ten but on just 15 targets; he made his hay by catching 80% of his limited opportunities. Also, Roundtree does very well to show up at #18 despite being the target of dozens of screens. That target number is off the charts.
This is expected, since the spread came with a huge shift towards running the ball. Passes are naturally more likely to go far when you run 70% of the time.
The bottom 20:
RK | Year | Player | Targets | Catches | YdsPerTarget | YdsPerCatch |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
42 | 2005 | Antonio Bass | 11 | 8 | 5.8 | 8.0 |
43 | 2006 | Michael Hart | 22 | 17 | 5.7 | 7.4 |
44 | 2005 | Tyler Ecker | 40 | 21 | 5.7 | 10.8 |
45 | 2007 | Greg Mathews | 65 | 39 | 5.6 | 9.4 |
46 | 2008 | Greg Mathews | 73 | 35 | 5.6 | 11.7 |
47 | 2006 | Mike Massey | 13 | 8 | 5.5 | 9.0 |
48 | 2006 | Carson Butler Jr. | 32 | 19 | 5.4 | 9.1 |
49 | 2009 | Kelvin Grady | 19 | 10 | 5.4 | 10.2 |
50 | 2010 | Michael Shaw | 14 | 10 | 5.4 | 7.5 |
51 | 2011 | Kelvin Grady | 14 | 5 | 5.4 | 15.0 |
52 | 2006 | Greg Mathews | 13 | 7 | 5.2 | 9.7 |
53 | 2008 | Martavious Odoms | 90 | 49 | 4.9 | 9.1 |
54 | 2008 | Darryl Stonum | 37 | 14 | 4.8 | 12.6 |
55 | 2009 | Martell Webb | 10 | 4 | 4.4 | 11.0 |
56 | 2005 | Mike Massey | 12 | 8 | 4.3 | 6.4 |
57 | 2007 | Mike Massey | 10 | 4 | 3.8 | 9.5 |
58 | 2008 | LaTerryal Savoy | 11 | 4 | 3.5 | 9.5 |
59 | 2005 | Tim Massaquoi | 25 | 11 | 3.4 | 7.8 |
60 | 2007 | Michael Hart | 16 | 8 | 3.1 | 6.3 |
61 | 2008 | Michael Shaw | 11 | 6 | 2.9 | 5.3 |
This is mostly sparsely-used tight ends and tailbacks with the notable exception of the top three receivers in 2008 and their 200 targets between them. Also I would like to note the presence of Tim Massaquoi towards the bottom of the list. This is not his fault. Massaquoi broke his hand in 2005. Michigan kept throwing the ball at him.
MOST TARGETED
RK | Year | Player | Targets | Catches | Yards | CatchRate | Target % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2007 | Mario Manningham | 142 | 72 | 1174 | 50.7% | 35.8% |
2 | 2005 | Jason Avant | 126 | 82 | 1065 | 65.1% | 32.6% |
3 | 2008 | Martavious Odoms | 90 | 49 | 445 | 54.4% | 29.7% |
4 | 2007 | Adrian Arrington | 115 | 67 | 882 | 58.3% | 29.0% |
5 | 2006 | Steve Breaston | 87 | 58 | 670 | 66.7% | 27.8% |
6 | 2010 | Roy Roundtree | 107 | 72 | 935 | 67.3% | 26.4% |
7 | 2008 | Greg Mathews | 73 | 35 | 409 | 47.9% | 24.1% |
8 | 2011 | Junior Hemingway | 58 | 34 | 699 | 58.6% | 21.7% |
9 | 2006 | Mario Manningham | 64 | 38 | 703 | 59.4% | 20.4% |
10 | 2010 | Darryl Stonum | 80 | 49 | 633 | 61.3% | 19.8% |
11 | 2006 | Adrian Arrington | 58 | 40 | 544 | 69.0% | 18.5% |
12 | 2011 | Roy Roundtree | 49 | 19 | 355 | 38.8% | 18.4% |
13 | 2009 | Greg Mathews | 55 | 29 | 352 | 52.7% | 18.0% |
14 | 2007 | Greg Mathews | 65 | 39 | 366 | 60.0% | 16.4% |
15 | 2011 | Jeremy Gallon | 42 | 31 | 453 | 73.8% | 15.7% |
16 | 2009 | Roy Roundtree | 46 | 32 | 434 | 69.6% | 15.1% |
17 | 2010 | Junior Hemingway | 56 | 32 | 593 | 57.1% | 13.8% |
18 | 2011 | Kevin Koger | 35 | 23 | 244 | 65.7% | 13.1% |
19 | 2005 | Steve Breaston | 49 | 26 | 291 | 53.1% | 12.7% |
20 | 2005 | Mario Manningham | 48 | 27 | 442 | 56.3% | 12.4% |
Note that two of the worst yards-per-target guys—the 2008 versions of Odoms and Mathews—show up in the top 10 here. Guys, I'm beginning to think that Michigan's 2008 offense wasn't very good.
Manningham's 2007 year is a clear winner here, with Jason Avant's 2005 a distant second yet distant from the #3. In context, Avant's stats scream "guy who will be a possession receiver for 20 years in the NFL": Michigan went to him all the time, never threw him screens, and he still checks in with a terrific catch rate.
Also catch Roundtree's 2011: bad. His production fell off not only because he was targeted less frequently but because his catch percentage plummeted from 67% to 39%. No screens, no easy TDs, a lot of doubt about whether he can take over Hemingway's downfield duties.
BEST/WORST CATCHIST
[NOTE: The spreadsheet erroneously listed Sam McGuffie as the #1 player here with 39 catches on 39 attempts… in 2010. The spreadsheet is right, in a way: those are McGuffie's numbers from his 2010 season at Rice. McGuffie still finishes #1 for his 2008 season, a 19 of 22 campaign.]
Unfiltered, these are of debatable utility since all of the guys at the top are small-sample size guys. Tailbacks, tight ends, and slots dominate. Let's limit it to players with at least 30 targets in a season and see what we get. The "rank" is rank amongst everyone. There are 59 seasons in the DB.
RK | Year | Player | Targets | Catches | CatchRate | YdsPerCatch |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11 | 2011 | Jeremy Gallon | 42 | 31 | 73.8% | 14.6 |
12 | 2009 | Martavious Odoms | 30 | 22 | 73.3% | 12.4 |
17 | 2009 | Roy Roundtree | 46 | 32 | 69.6% | 13.6 |
18 | 2006 | Adrian Arrington | 58 | 40 | 69.0% | 13.6 |
19 | 2010 | Roy Roundtree | 107 | 72 | 67.3% | 13.0 |
20 | 2006 | Steve Breaston | 87 | 58 | 66.7% | 11.6 |
24 | 2011 | Kevin Koger | 35 | 23 | 65.7% | 10.6 |
25 | 2005 | Jason Avant | 126 | 82 | 65.1% | 13.0 |
30 | 2010 | Darryl Stonum | 80 | 49 | 61.3% | 12.9 |
31 | 2007 | Greg Mathews | 65 | 39 | 60.0% | 9.4 |
32 | 2006 | Mario Manningham | 64 | 38 | 59.4% | 18.5 |
33 | 2006 | Carson Butler Jr. | 32 | 19 | 59.4% | 9.1 |
35 | 2011 | Junior Hemingway | 58 | 34 | 58.6% | 20.6 |
36 | 2007 | Adrian Arrington | 115 | 67 | 58.3% | 13.2 |
37 | 2010 | Junior Hemingway | 56 | 32 | 57.1% | 18.5 |
38 | 2005 | Mario Manningham | 48 | 27 | 56.3% | 16.4 |
40 | 2008 | Martavious Odoms | 90 | 49 | 54.4% | 9.1 |
42 | 2005 | Steve Breaston | 49 | 26 | 53.1% | 11.2 |
43 | 2009 | Greg Mathews | 55 | 29 | 52.7% | 12.1 |
45 | 2005 | Tyler Ecker | 40 | 21 | 52.5% | 10.8 |
47 | 2007 | Mario Manningham | 142 | 72 | 50.7% | 16.3 |
50 | 2008 | Greg Mathews | 73 | 35 | 47.9% | 11.7 |
56 | 2011 | Roy Roundtree | 49 | 19 | 38.8% | 18.7 |
57 | 2008 | Darryl Stonum | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 12.6 |
I highlighted it this time. Roundtree's regression from 2010 to 2011 was enormous. He went from the #5 player in this sample to second-worst.
In other news, Adrian Arrington's 2006 was secretly great. And when you combine the catch rates with the yards you have a dead heat between Mario Manningham '06 and Junior Hemingway '11 as the best season in this time frame, with Avant's '05 drawing an honorable mention for moving the chains.
Speaking of…
MOVING THE CHAINS
There are two subsets provided in the data, with attempts split into "standard downs" and "passing downs." Passing downs can come on second and long but using them as a proxy for third and let's-not-run isn't going to introduce too many distortions. The top 20 security blankets:
RK | Year | Player | Targets | Catches | CatchRate | Target % | YdsPerCatch |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2007 | Mario Manningham | 67 | 34 | 50.7% | 34.0% | 20.5 |
2 | 2008 | Greg Mathews | 51 | 25 | 49.0% | 31.5% | 14.8 |
3 | 2006 | Steve Breaston | 46 | 29 | 63.0% | 30.1% | 18.9 |
4 | 2005 | Jason Avant | 50 | 33 | 66.0% | 29.8% | 18.7 |
5 | 2007 | Adrian Arrington | 54 | 30 | 55.6% | 27.4% | 19.0 |
6 | 2011 | Junior Hemingway | 31 | 19 | 61.3% | 24.2% | 21.8 |
7 | 2010 | Roy Roundtree | 42 | 22 | 52.4% | 23.1% | 19.1 |
8 | 2007 | Greg Mathews | 42 | 25 | 59.5% | 21.3% | 14.6 |
9 | 2008 | Martavious Odoms | 34 | 14 | 41.2% | 21.0% | 10.5 |
10 | 2010 | Darryl Stonum | 36 | 17 | 47.2% | 19.8% | 10.3 |
11 | 2011 | Roy Roundtree | 25 | 8 | 32.0% | 19.5% | 13.4 |
12 | 2009 | Greg Mathews | 26 | 13 | 50.0% | 17.4% | 17.0 |
13 | 2006 | Adrian Arrington | 24 | 17 | 70.8% | 15.7% | 7.4 |
14 | 2006 | Mario Manningham | 24 | 14 | 58.3% | 15.7% | 17.8 |
15 | 2005 | Mario Manningham | 26 | 12 | 46.2% | 15.5% | 19.8 |
16 | 2010 | Junior Hemingway | 28 | 13 | 46.4% | 15.4% | 12.1 |
17 | 2005 | Tyler Ecker | 25 | 11 | 44.0% | 14.9% | 18.9 |
18 | 2009 | Roy Roundtree | 21 | 15 | 71.4% | 14.1% | 16.9 |
19 | 2006 | Carson Butler Jr. | 19 | 12 | 63.2% | 12.4% | 19.6 |
20 | 2008 | Darryl Stonum | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 11.7% | 13.6 |
You get a dollar for betting that you should throw it to Jason Avant on third and medium, too. Only low-usage versions of Arrington and Roundtree bested him on catch percentage and they were far less-frequently targeted; Arrington's 7.4 YPC further implies that some of those completions were well short of the first down.
Avant has a combination of catching the ball and maintaining a great YPC that makes it totally unsurprising that he's a solid NFL player and a little wistfully sad whenever I compare yet another incoming WR to him when I know deep in the soul of my heart that there's no way Freshman X will be half as good.
BONUS: Steve Breaston would like you to take your criticisms about his hands and shove them up where Bill Hancock's head is.
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