self scouting

Hooray another one of these!

Having some video issues at the moment; a couple are up and seven more are coming; will get them up ASAP.

Let's get this over with. Chart?

Chart.

As always, the Threetsheridammit chart legend.

STEVEN THREET

Eight of those CAs were screens, FWIW, so this is not as good a day as it appears, especially because something like five of those BRs were balls thrown directly at State defensive backs. Our downfield ratio (with MAs dropped, as those were about 50-50 CA/IN earlier): 36%. You just can't sustain an offense on that.

So, yeah, ugly, ugly performance from Threet, back on the downswing from a good half against Penn State. I don't think this is all on his head, though. As Sean McDonough noted, it looked like Threet was really looping passes out to his receivers. He reminded me of no one so much as deposed Auburn starter Chris Todd, who can rainbow slants. I saw it, man.

Anyway, that elbow is obviously still bothering Threet.

Yeah, what was the deal with all the balls thrown directly at MSU players?

You'll note that with one exception those were all wheel routes; the Minor "touchdown" was also a well-covered wheel route; so was the pass interference on Minor.

Obviously 1) M loves wheel routes, as anyone who's watched them this year knows, and 2) MSU spent a lot of time in practice working on them.

And what was the deal with all the offsides?

This actually came up in a mailbag earlier this year, at which point I said this…

I’m pretty sure Michigan isn’t using no snap count whatsoever, it’s just that the count is silent. DEs don’t have license to time the snap with impunity. There will be variable pauses between the clap and the snap.

…and promptly forgot about it.

As we now know, there weren't really variable pauses between the hand clap and the snap, which allowed Michigan State to jump the snap count time and again to mostly good effect. They picked up a few offsides calls, but they also got incompletions, stuffed runs, and sacks because their guys were moving before Michigan's OL could even get out of their stances. They were offsides on another two or three plays, but didn't get called for it.

These two things indicate anything to you?

I don't like deploying the word "outcoached" because it's code for "I am a mouthbreather who listens to sports talk radio and my team done losted; I have a picture of Calvin peeing on something on my car." It, like "special," has been used so many times and so incorrectly that the term has lost all meaning.

But?

But! It's clear Michigan State was very well prepared to play this edition of Michigan; they scouted out all the wheels and such and timed the snap counts and exploited Michigan's tendencies on offense wickedly. (On defense, OTOH, Michigan broke tendencies and largely played well save for four enormous errors turned in by Stevie Brown and Boubacar Cissoko.)

Aside from varying the snap count a little and picking up those offsides calls, Michigan could do little about it.

I'm not happy about that but neither am I surprised; given the stuff Michigan's been working through this year on offense they don't have the opportunity to put in cute packages every week. The coaching staff is not focused on self-scouting, which was to their detriment in this game.

I mentioned this in the Penn State UFR: Michigan is getting shut down because their offense is not diverse enough. They add in a new package of stuff, like the wheels against ND and the MINOR RAGE against Penn State, and it works for a while because it's new; then the opponent adjusts and that's gone; Michigan isn't consistent enough at any one part of their offense to force teams into uncomfortable situations as they try to defend it. This was the hope of Minor Rage after the Penn State game; it did not work out.

So why are you not calling for the head of Magee and Rodriguez like you did Mike Debord?

Mike Debord had a record of failure when he arrived at Michigan and was working with veteran editions of Manningham, Hart, et al. He had a ton more talent, a ton more experience, and frittered it away. Yes, this absolutely goes for times Chad Henne was in the game; it goes for 2006 and Debord's first go-round at Michigan.

Rodriguez, on the other hand, has coached explosive offenses wherever he's been for ten years, and he's working with an absolute dearth of talent and experience on his side of the ball. Before the season I thought they might be okay, but as soon as the Utah game rolled around I drastically reduced expectations; there they remain.

There is plenty of evidence Rodriguez will turn things around soon enough. There was even more evidence Mike Debord was a poor choice. One season in the most trying of circumstances does not invalidate a decade of success.

Uh, more charts, right?

Yeah, more charts. Receivers:

(remember: 0 is uncatchable, 1 is a circus catch, 2 is a somewhat difficult one, and 3 is a routine one)

An okay day, with the one big drop from Stonum that would have provided Michigan a (likely meaningless) touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

And PROTECTION METRIC: 34/47. Ortmann –6, Schilling –5, Team –1, Moosman –1. Note that the tackles were often put in tough spots by the snap-jumping. Also note that a lot of this was against three-man rushes and the overall picture was pretty grim.

You mentioned something about bitching about the officiating?

Okay, I in no way want this to be construed as something that affected the game's outcome. Michigan picked up a free touchdown and was lucky to be even close at the end of the game.

Anyway: holy crap. Awful. Not only did Jim Augustyne manage to top himself, but the officials missed three offsides calls on Michigan State and called a ridiculous PI on Harrison on State's go ahead touchdown drive. I'm just mad at the state of officiating in the league, which on this day was probably a net benefit for Michigan.

Heroes?

Uh… I'm looking and I have nothing. Minor did okay, I guess, not fumbling and taking the yards he was provided but he was robbed of a number of opportunities to gash big gains by poor blocking. Odoms continues to prove himself the best receiver on the team. I thought Molk and Moosman were all right.

Goats?

The left side of the line is killing Michigan; I'd be surprised to see Ortmann keep his job once Dorrestein his healthy, and they've been trying to replace McAvoy all year. Threet had a poor day, and Stonum's drops are becoming a concern.

What does it mean blah?

This is not a good offense, and the only salvation is next year.