scot loeffler

I suppose there are two storylines tonight: one that revolves around generally sluggish play from the heavily favored Michigan Wolverines best exemplified by a disastrous outing by QB JJ McCarthy and another that focuses on the mockery that this game was, more of a scrimmage feel than any other cupcake game in recent Michigan memory. Bowling Green opted to kick field goals on 4th & short twice in the second quarter, which more or less revealed that the Falcons weren't even trying to win. They were quickly down to a third-string, walk-on QB and spent the whole second half running the same rushing play over and over again. BGSU wanted it to be over and so did Michigan. Neither team even ran 60 plays. That sort of game. 

Bowling Green started the game with Camden Orth at QB, Connor Bazelak sidelined with injury. For a time, Orth found himself in decent rhythm, hoisting balls up for receivers and perfectly locating them, giving his guys a chance. He hit Odieu Hiliare for 30 on the first play of the game but the drive stalled out after Orth fumbled the ball on 3rd down. He recovered the ball, but was sacked by Keon Sabb, forcing a punt. 

Michigan's offense went to work looking to establish the run and did it in beautiful fashion. Blake Corum ran for 54 yards on his first carry, then Michigan ran a reverse for Donovan Edwards, JJ McCarthy kept it himself down to the two, and Blake Corum punched it in. Four plays was all it took for a touchdown and a quick 7-0 lead.

Momentum continued for Michigan as it seemed to be smooth sailing, forcing a quick three-and-out on defense triggered by a Mike Sainristil sack, and then Tyler Morris returned the punt 22 yards into BGSU territory. Michigan then marched all over the Falcon D inside the ten, McCarthy showing his arm off and Donovan Edwards keeping the offense on schedule through the ground game. The Wolverines got down to 2nd & goal at the 5, when things started to deviate from the expected script. McCarthy dropped back to throw, saw Roman Wilson running open in the end zone, and threw the ball. Unfortunately, he didn't see corner Jalen Huskey, perhaps because AJ Barner obstructed his view, but the ball was easily intercepted by Huskey and Michigan came up empty. 

[David Wilcomes]

Bowling Green got the ball and had their first truly successful drive of the game. On 3rd & 10, Orth heaved the ball again and connected again, this time on a bizarre circus catch by Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim despite decent defense from Sainristil. That got the Falcons out near midfield, and they again converted a 3rd & long after Michigan left TE Levi Gazarek wide open on a seam route. Ta'Ron Keith picked up 11 yards on the ground on 2nd & 10 two plays after that and BGSU was now in scoring position. Surprisingly, they opted to kick a field goal on 4th & 2 once Michigan's defense finally forced a stop and it was now 7-3. 

Michigan didn't get the ball back. The kickoff by Jackson Kleather was pooched up in the air and short to Max Bredeson, who caught it and started to run, getting decent yardage but it was punched out Trent Simms and recovered by Bowling Green's Patrick Day. BGSU now had the ball on Michigan's 33, in good position to possibly take a lead. It wasn't to be, though, as the Michigan defense stepped up, stopping an option play on 3rd & 1 and again HC Scot Loeffler opted to kick a cowardly field goal instead of going for it. The kick was good, but it was the first indication that Bowling Green was not playing to win. 7-6. 

Michigan was thoroughly out of the usual rhythm as a team by the time they finally got the ball back. The next drive didn't break them out of the funk, only serving to send them deeper in it. The drive started off-balance when another short kickoff was fumbled, this time on the catch by Braiden McGregor, though he recovered. JJ McCarthy found Cornelius Johnson for a catch and Blake Corum got the team past midfield, but then McCarthy took a deep shot. Despite having Roman Wilson running open for a touchdown, he forced the ball to a not-open Cornelius Johnson and then mis-placed the ball. Intercepted by BGSU corner Jordan Oladokun, the third Michigan turnover and we were only in the second quarter. 

[David Wilcomes]

Any chance for Bowling Green to win the game had gone out the window, though, when QB Camden Orth left the game. In came Hayden Timosciek, a former walk-on RS Freshman who spent time at Purdue before transferring to Bowling Green. The Falcon offense had no hope with Timosciek in the game, opting for extremely short passes and rushing plays only, punting it right back to Michigan quickly. This time McCarthy got his groove back, following three Blake Corum runs with a 22 yard pass to Colston Loveland and then a play-action bullet to Roman Wilson that found the end zone from 33 yards out. 14-6 Michigan. 

Bowling Green picked up their first first down with Timosciek in the game on the next drive, but then revealed why they absolutely did not want him to throw: Timosciek's pass for Hiliare on 3rd & 4 was intercepted on a great play by Quinten Johnson, who locked onto the QB, read his eyes, and snatched it away before the receiver could get his hands on it. Michigan now had good field position (their own 45) with two minutes to go and a chance for more points before halftime. In a game of offensive struggles, it didn't happen. McCarthy saw a wide open Tyler Morris running down the sideline for a certain TD, but missed him. On the next play, BGSU sent a blitz that Donovan Edwards was totally unaware of and, when compounded with Karsen Barnhart getting beaten clean, resulted in the first McCarthy sack of the season. It was 14-6 at halftime. 

Michigan got the ball out of the break but the offense didn't look any better. McCarthy waited and waited and waited on 3rd & 6, eventually bailing to scramble and was brought down short of the sticks. Three-and-out. Thankfully, the Michigan defense decided it was time for the game to no longer be competitive. Bowling Green tried to run a slip screen but Timosciek's pass was snatched out of the air by Kris Jenkins, who rumbled down to the two yard line. Michigan needed one play for Blake Corum to plunge into the end zone to make it 21-6. With the BGSU offense completely shutdown with an incapable QB, the game was over. 

[David Wilcomes]

That said, there were plenty of intriguing things still to come. A Jaylen Harrell rush around the RT Alex Wollschlager got to Timosciek and knocked the ball out of his hand, which Michael Barrett recovered at the Bowling Green 26. After Michigan was the turnover factory early, the Falcons had committed three turnovers in rapid succession spanning the late 2nd quarter into the early 3rd. Michigan used the positive field position to get points, but again the offense was flailing. A holding call on AJ Barner backed them up and Michigan ran the ball on 3rd & 14, settling for a 42 yard James Turner field goal, which split the uprights. 24-6. 

There were still 25 minutes to go in the game, but Bowling Green's main objective at this point was to get it over with and go home. Not just had they lost two QBs to injuries, but star EDGE rusher Demetrius Hardamon suffered a scary injury that required a stretcher and an ambulance ride. For Scot Loeffler, the game couldn't end soon enough. To end the game more quickly, the Falcon offense was content to run the same rushing play three times in a row and punt. If they got a first down, it was merely because of a bust from the Michigan defense. 

After another BGSU three-and-out, Michigan ran a flea flicker that JJ McCarthy threw towards Cornelius Johnson. It wasn't really open, but the ball bounced around off both Johnson and the DB before landing in Johnson's arms as he walked into the end zone for a circus catch TD. 31-6 Maize & Blue and the lopsided score was about to emerge.

BGSU punted it right back to Michigan after another three-and-out, and the Michigan offense had a chance to build some rhythm. Again this did not come to pass due to mistakes. Donovan Edwards started the drive on the ground and then Alex Orji got some time at QB to run it. JJ McCarthy came back on the field and authored the play that defined his night, a scramble straight backwards, avoiding pressure, then rolling to the sideline and instead of throwing it away, tried to force it to Colston Loveland on the sideline, which was intercepted by Avi McGary, who toe-tapped to secure the catch. The third INT for McCarthy. 

[David Wilcomes]

That play, at the very end of the third quarter, was the last pass McCarthy would attempt. Bowling Green stitched together a 5+ minute drive that didn't end in points but got them closer to their goal of ending the football game, and when Michigan got the ball back, Jayden Denegal was playing QB. Cole Cabana got his first career NCAA carry, which is notable, but Michigan punted. BGSU got the ball back with just under seven minutes left and again went on a long and slow drive that chewed the clock. It soaked up 6.5 minutes and ended with a sad field goal attempt with 15 seconds left. The 36 yard attempt for Alan Anaya was no good, Michigan kneeled it down, and the game was over. 

For many, the takeaway will be McCarthy's performance. After the ECU and UNLV games were the best of McCarthy's career, today was his unambiguous worst game, a shocking showing of inaccuracy and poor decision-making. McCarthy only attempted thirteen passes and completed eight of them (62%), going for 11 Y/A. That all looks good, but three of the five incompletions being INTs does not look good. That a fourth incompletion was a missed TD to a wide open receiver makes it even worse. 

The first INT may have been bad luck, if Barner's positioning in the end zone indeed shielded McCarthy from seeing the lurking defender (I'm not sure, but it's plausible). The other two were dreadful, forcing a ball in to a covered receiver instead of the open man and then a high school mistake forcing a ball instead of throwing it away while on the run. McCarthy was limping at one point, his arm mechanics looked off, and the way he was running straight backwards from defenders was unusual too. Tonight's performance was 2.5 years worth of progression in McCarthy's game regressing in one three hour span. What should we make of that? I don't know. Maybe it's just a law of averages, that if McCarthy threw two no-hitters in a row to start the season, he needed to have one game where he gave up 8 earned runs in 4 innings to average it out (pardon the baseball analogy). 

[David Wilcomes]

But the rest of Michigan's team wasn't terribly sharp either. BGSU's lack of interest in attempting to win muddled things a bit, but the Wolverine defense had some hiccups early on that we hadn't seen this season. Reflective of a team still sitting a number of players with injury, but still unusual compared to what we've seen from this generally solid unit. The secondary left a few receivers more open than you would've liked, most notably a dropped TD by Hiliare who got free from Josh Wallace on the third Falcon drive, one that would've tied the game. Toss in the two fumbles on special teams and a possible third fumble by McCarthy that was never reviewed and you get a sloppy, sluggish game from a team that seemed to lack intensity and energy. 

Regardless, style points are imaginary and a number of top teams in college football struggled today besides Michigan. All that matters is the win, which Michigan got, and in terms of yardage and score, it wasn't really close either. A lot of handwringing over a game that ultimately wasn't in doubt. Michigan is 3-0 and extends their long winning streak at Michigan Stadium to 18. Next week begins conference play and a visit from 3-0 Rutgers, also the return of Jim Harbaugh from his suspension. That game is at noon and is slated to be broadcast on Big Ten Network. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Box score]

One more non-conference game to go! Bowling Green comes to town this weekend for a homecoming with Carr-era coaches and assistants of yore, starting with head-man Scot Loeffler and continuing down to the likes of Erik Campbell and Steve Morrison. The BGSU Falcons are 1-1 on the season and coming off a 6-7 campaign where they qualified for a bowl for the first time in the Loeffler era but were defeated by New Mexico State in Detroit in the Quick Lane Bowl.  

The Film: Bowling Green has played two games so far this season, Liberty and Eastern Illinois. One of those teams is an FBS squad and one of them is an FCS squad. Not much choice on which game to go with this week. Better than last week, where there was no choice altogether and we got locked into a meaningless game with a low-level FCS team, but there is still a large gap in quality of opponent between Liberty and Michigan. Oh well. 

Personnel: Click for big. 

The Bowling Green Falcons are led by Connor Bazelak at QB, the same QB from Indiana (and previously Missouri). My preseason hopes that Bazelak could find a home with Scot Loeffler and return to his higher quality of play from his SEC days has so far not come to fruition. His performance in this game against Liberty was ghastly (albeit, with shoddy pressure as a factor). Bazelak was much better against EIU but hard to know how much of that was strength of competition related. Loeffler took Bazelak off the field after three interceptions against Liberty and gave Camden Orth a shot, but they are not a 1:1 substitution; Orth is a more mobile QB so if he comes on the field, it's probably a tip to the D. 

At RB, the Falcons have been dividing carries heavily in the first two games, with Terion Stewart, Jaison Patterson, PaSean Wimberly, and Ta'ron Keith all with between 17 and 7 carries this season. In the game I watched, I was not able to distinguish between these players in any major way. They all seemed competent. PFF really likes Keith, but we're going off of just seven carries for him. Not enough of a sample size to speak confidently about. 

The WR core is where we find the Dangerman, Odieu Hiliare, a second team All-MAC receiver last season who caught 58 balls for 747 yards and 6 TDs in 2022. He's not a big dude at 6'0", but you can line him up inside or outside and he probably represents the best receiver Michigan has faced this non-conference. Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim, a transfer from Alabama A&M (where he played with Hiliare, who transferred from there the prior season), has caught six balls so far this season but didn't catch my eye in this game. BGSU plays in 12 a lot thanks to an affinity for TEs, but when they're in 11 the third receiver is normally Austin Osborne. Farther down the depth chart is Finn Hogan and Jaylen Tillman, but neither have a catch this season in their ~25 snaps each over two games. 

Like I mentioned, Loeffler does like his TEs, Harold Fannin Jr. being the main catchy TE. I wasn't terribly impressed with Fannin as a blocker, but he is a decent pass-catcher and the Bowling Green offense loves to get him the football. Fannin leads the team with nine catches and 138 receiving yards through two games. Andrew Bench is the larger, #2 TE on the depth chart who was perhaps marginally better as a blocker, but neither impressed me in that regard. Levi Gazarek is the clear #3 with no obvious #4 behind him, but in terms of usage, it's the Fannin show and then everyone else at this position. 

The offensive line put up a solid showing on the ground against Liberty, part of the team's overall excellent rushing day, but was dreadful in pass protection. LT Kamren Stewart played only part of the game before exiting for presumably performance-related reasons (read: he was godawful). LG Tunde Fatukasi, brother of one-time Rutgers standout ILB Olakunle Fatukasi, has been rotating in and out of the lineup because he is also quite bad. Cedric Dunbar II is the rotational replacement for Fatukasi and didn't seem much better to me. The remainder of the IOL consists of C Alex Padgett and RG Nate Pabst, the latter of whom slid out to LT to spell Stewart against Liberty for part of the contest. Both guys were pretty up and down. Reserve G Bronson Warner is another player who can jump into the mix but I don't have many thoughts on him. RT Alex Wollschlaeger had just enough moments on the ground in run blocking to keep him above cyan status, but was also quite worrying in pass pro. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: some clips]

The prayer forced. Michigan's communication and Jon Teske's unexpected switch and quick hands forced Northwestern into a chuck:

**Video Breakdown: How Michigan stifled Northwestern’s final possession in their road victory over the Wildcats** pic.twitter.com/serXxvl4lw

— Eric S (@eric_shap) December 6, 2018

Anonymous quotes about basketball's defense. Right this way, via Jeff Borzello:

"They're so much further ahead of everyone right now, it's not even funny," one opposing Big Ten coach said, referencing their experience. "What they were doing at the end of the year has carried over." …

"They have an alpha male at the point in Simpson," a Big Ten assistant said. "He holds those guys to what I would call a gold standard. He doesn't allow them to slip. When they don't do something correctly, he makes sure they know about it."

"Zavier just plays his ass off," another opposing coach said. "He may be smaller, but he's dialed in every possession, and they put a lot of length around him. He's a junkyard dog."

Michigan's 23-1 run stretching back to last year would be the #1 efficiency D in the history of Kenpom if it was a single season. And it seems like the bit from last year is the "bad" part.

Beilein's greatest enemy returns. NBA draftniks have started talking up Ignas Brazdeikis, who slides in at the end of the first round in SI's latest mock draft:

27. IGNAS BRAZDEIKIS, F, MICHIGAN | FRESHMAN

Height: 6’7” | Weight: 215 | Age: 19 | Last Rank: NR

As has been widely noted, Brazdeikis turns 20 in January and is only technically a freshman, after doing a prep year in Canada. The good news is, it doesn’t really matter. Brazdeikis has been Michigan’s most consistent scorer and impressed with his ability to hunt shots off the ball. He can shoot it from outside or face up and attack the basket, and profiles as a useful offensive-minded role guy in the pros. His competitiveness and feel stand out, The big question with him is perimeter defense, as he will probably need to be parked on fours in the NBA. Regardless, if the Wolverines continue to play this well, Brazdeikis won’t have to stick around long.

Matthews (#38) and Poole (#51) also show up in their top 60, though Poole is in the you-should-return range and the author admits even that is "speculative." 

The Athletic's Sam Vecenie is more skeptical of Iggy as a one and done, placing him 50th in his latest top 100 and causing a blizzard of HEY WHAT ABOUT IGGY comments that he responded to at length. A portion:

Here's where I'm worried: Athleticism here is still a pretty real NBA concern on defense. Iggy is smart on that end and has taken to what Yaklich/Beilein want him to do well. But it also says something, IMO, that Michigan has been better on defense with him off the floor as opposed to when he's been on it -- especially in their games against high-major competition (vs. Nova, PC, UNC, Purdue, NW, Michigan had a 74 DRTG with him off the floor, and an 88 DRTG with him on it). That's a bit noisy, and the overall number is still good at 88. But I think Michigan has done more to insulate him rather than him being a true difference maker on that end, too.

On offense, over 75% of his offense has come from spot-ups, transition opportunities, back-cuts, and O-Rebs. The spot-up stuff is useful obviously, as he's a terrific shooter who can put the ball on the deck and attack a closeout.

Brazdeikis has done good work as a college four checking guys like Paschall and Maye but might not have the lateral agility to keep up with NBA wings. The stat about his offense seems… wrong, though? That's probably from Synergy and is therefore meticulously charted but it certainly feels like Iggy's creating a lot of his own shots. He dug Michigan out of some trouble against Northwestern by getting to the rim with frequency.

Vecenie says that if Iggy can maintain his effectiveness once he's 1) scouted and 2) the primary focus of opponent defenses he'll shoot up his board. One thing that hurts his stock—his age, which is a year older than most freshmen—is the kind of thing that makes you leave instead of makes you stay.

Let us resolve to enjoy the rest of this season.

[After the JUMP: potentially better NFL draft news?]