sam mcguffie

Photoshop is a very dangerous tool if left in the wrong hands, which is why nobody should've ever let me get a copy of CS5. Seth's post this morning contained this nightmare-fuelish mashup of Jordan Kovacs and Ernest Shazor, his version of the Bill Walsh ideal strong safety:

Most people's instinct, upon seeing such a picture, is to turn and run and not stop running until they've reached a technological wilderness that makes it impossible to see said picture ever again. Because of my tenuous grasp on sanity, especially during the offseason, I decided instead to create a few more Frankenplayers. If these three rather horrifying creations ever donned the winged helmet, Michigan's offense would be unstoppable, albeit a bit strange-looking:

TOMNARD BROBINSON

Denard Robinson and Tom Brady took wildly divergent paths to quarterback stardom. Denard's running exploits were the stuff of legend, while his passing left something to be desired, especially when he was out of the comfy confines of Rich Rodriguez's spread offense—one perfectly tailored to his strengths. Brady, meanwhile, was never fully appreciated during his time in Ann Arbor despite his pinpoint passing—only in retrospect, after multiple Super Bowls, was he fully acknowledged as an excellent college player. As a runner, though... he was a great pocket passer.

So what do you get when you jam Brady's upper body onto Denard's legs? (While, of course, still harnessing the power of the dreadlocks.) Only the most fearsome dual-threat quarterback in college football history, not to mention one charming franken-guy.

SAMICHAEL McHART

As a college running back, Mike Hart was just about everything you could ask for—productive and durable, coupling great vision and agility with surprising power and an inability to fumble. Despite lacking in top-end speed, Hart famously made the journey from three-star recruit to Michigan's all-time leading rusher.

Sam McGuffie, on the other hand, came in with a world of recruiting hype and plenty of athletic talent—his high school highlight tape featured him jumping over linebackers when he wasn't able to use his top-end speed to simply take the top off of the defense. Unlike Hart, McGuffie had the potential to be unstoppable in the open field. When it came to absorbing punishment, however, McGuffie fell short at Michigan, transferring to Rice after a disappointing and injury-plagued freshman season in 2008.

Stick McGuffie's legs (not pictured) onto Hart, though? Now we've got the production, durability, between-the-tackles running, and open field explosiveness no Michigan running back has possessed since Tyrone Wheatley. Do you want to claim Samichael McHart wouldn't front-flip over Will Gholston in the open field if given the chance? I thought not.

JEREMY TACOPANTS

Jeremy Gallon emerged last season as Michigan's best wide receiver, proving especially productive when Devin Gardner took over at quarterback. The former high school option quarterback is both shifty and fast with good hands and explosive leaping ability. Unfortunately, he's also about 5'8", which limits his potential as a downfield threat.

Enter Tacopants, Jason Avant's 11-foot tall imaginary friend whose career high point was Chad Henne's inconsistent sophomore season. Combine him with Gallon, and, well—it's a giant wide receiver, guys, he's going to be pretty good.

In sum, it's barely May and I've already stooped to this for offseason content. I'm so sorry. Carry on.

David Guralnick/The Detroit News

Continuing my theme of getting super-meta this offseason, I decided to take a look back at the MGoBlog recruiting recaps from the class of 2008—hello, blogspot!—and see how they stand up now that those players have either moved on from the program or are fifth-year seniors. 2008, of course, was the franken-class of Lloyd Carr and Rich Rodriguez recruits, a bizarre blend of pro-style plodders and size-challenged spread speedsters. While it boasted 17 four-stars among 24 commits, finishing a very respectable tenth in the Rivals team rankings, the class would prove to be an unmitigated disaster, ravaged by attrition and marked with disappointment.

So, let's go back to a time when Michigan fans still held out hope for landing Terrelle Pryor—when these were written, still holding out for a better contract mulling his decision a month after signing day—to spearhead this newfangled spread offense. Today, I'll take a look at Brian's offensive evaluations, and the defense will be covered next week. For reference, links to the original posts: Quarterback and Running Back, Receivers, Tight Ends, Offensive Line. If you're anything like me, perusing those is a remarkably fun way to waste time.

Easy Joke Is Easy

With a major change in offensive scheme, Michigan was in desperate need of a dual-threat quarterback. Pryor was the ultimate prize, and Rodriguez was forced to hedge his bets with Justin Feagin, an under-the-radar athlete from Florida whose best offers were to play wide receiver at LSU or defensive back at Miami (YTM).

Projection: Someone's going to play Tebow to Threet's Chris Leak this fall; unless Carlos Brown locks that down, it'll be Feagin. I have no idea what to expect, but think his future is probably somewhere other than quarterback.

Namely, the inside of a courtroom. ZING! (Really, when it comes to the 2008 quarterback situation, dark humor is the only option lest you want to break down in tears.)

Ironically, it was his off-field actions that made Feagin one of the recruits Brian was "baselessly excited about in defiance of recruiting rankings and reason," due to late-night workouts and multiple quotes expressing no concern about potentially having to compete with Pryor for the starting job. It was noted that Feagin required "a ton of developing to be a legitimate quarterback," which was readily apparent during his brief appearances as a freshman. Then came the cocaine stuff and subsequent boot, so we'll never know whether Feagin could've turned into a passable receiver.

NEVER FORGET

I started following recruiting seriously when a friend showed me Noel Devine's highlight tape during my senior year of high school. Since I had little understanding at the time about how recruiting actually worked, I was bitterly disappointed when Devine seemingly had zero interest in Michigan (and vice versa), eventually ending up at West Virginia. I swore never to get my hopes up about highlight tape heroes again.

So the next year, when another atom-sized running back took the YouTubes by storm, I had little hope that this Texan doing heel-clicks on the backs of linebackers would even consider donning the Maize and Blue. Even so, I'd watch his tape on repeat, sharing it with friends whenever the opportunity arose; seeing their eyes bug while asking what in the hell they just watched never got old. This is what they saw [NSFW audio warning]:

Then, of course, the impossible occurred: Sam McGuffie signed with Michigan, though not before nearly shattering our dreams during a signing day flirtation with Cal. Brian, however, was nonplussed, proferring this muted reaction to McGuffie's inclusion in the class:

General Excitement Level: AAAAIIEEEE! Man... this offense is McGuffie's jam, man, and the Church Of Barwis will excommunicate anyone who doubts his his's ability to get up to 200-some pounds without compromising his lightning quicks. Steve Slaton says what.
Projection: He's the man, man. Will battle Brown and Grady for carries at first; probably a Noel Devine role his first year.

Oh. Unfortunately, you all know how this one went. McGuffie showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman in 2008, but also the durability of a paper bag. After finishing the season as the team's second-leading rusher, he decided to transfer closer to home, ending up at Rice, where he'll be a redshirt senior in 2012. Not exactly what we'd all envisioned when the guy who frontflipped over J.B. Shugarts at the Army Game hit campus.

McGuffie wasn't the only back in the class, however, as he was joined by two other intriguing prospects. Rich Rodriguez earned the "snake-oil salesman" moniker for snatching Roy Roundtree from Purdue (more on him later), but his other signing day surprise was pulling Trotwood-Madison RB Michael Shaw away from Penn State. You'll never guess what Brian noticed on his film [emphasis mine]:

I am not a scout, but in the Shaw video at Scouting Ohio I saw a guy with a knack for catching the flare, good speed, and exactly one move: an upfield cut followed by a bounce-out that got him outside high school defenders with regularity.

And thus we find the origins of bouncebouncebouncebounce.

The final back in the class was a relative unknown from the football hotbed of Avon, Connecticut. Mike Cox's name required a disclaimer in the notes section of his profile—"Degree of difficulty applies on all jokes about his name. (IE: please no "Mike Cox is huge" jokes.)"—while his school's sporting pedigree invited a healthy dose of skepticism:

There's almost zero reliable data on Cox. His high school conference is well known for hockey -- read full of rich white guys named "Higginbotham" (no, literally) -- and is awful at football.

Until reading the profile, I had completely forgotten that Michigan took Cox over four-star Detroit Country Day product and eventual Notre Dame commit Jonas Gray. In retrospect, I think it's safe to say that was a mistake, even though Gray wasn't a major contributor until his senior season. At least we got four years of stale dick jokes, though.

NEVER FORGET, Part Deux

Rodriguez's hire brought to Michigan the era of the waterbug slot guy, which promised to be great fun for a fanbase used to watching tiny track-star guys tear it up only for opponents. The recruit expected to come in and make a big splash early was four-star Terrence Robinson out of Klein, Texas, and all it took was one physics-defying play to see why:

Commits pulling Hakeem Olajuwon post moves at warp speed during a football game understandably cause a fair amount of excitement. Brian busted out the obligatory Breaston comparison and projected him to be in the mix at both returner and slot receiver. Robinson finished his Michigan career with one catch, two kickoff returns, and one punt return for a grand total of 94 all-purpose yards.

Michigan's other slot ninja was Pahokee's Martavious Odoms, whose profile contains endless testimonials about his rabbit-chasing speed. Brian's comparison is Devin Hester and also a version of Steve Breaston that actually catches the bombs:

General Excitement Level: Moderate++. He's never going to be Braylon Edwards but if he's as fast as his reputation he could be a dynamite returner and even a deep threat: remember Steve Breaston's ill-fated career as the target of bombs? Well, he was open by yards time and again because opposing players got smoked by his moves and always dropped the ball. Odoms looks like he's pretty good at hauling in deep balls.
Projection: Will press for time as a returner immediately and is 50-50 to be the designated bubble screen guy, with Terrance Robinson the other option. Starts off with an advantage on Robinson because he's spent the last four years as a receiver.

Evaluation severely lacking in mountain goat blocking praise.

Despite the excitement over the tiny slot guys, the biggest expectations were reserved for consensus top-100 receiver Darryl Stonum, who chose Michigan over Florida, Alabama, USC, and Florida State. Breathless hype part one:

Natural change of direction? Fluid hips? Comes down with jump balls? A mix of Braylon Edwards and Mario Manningham... which, like, dude.

And part two:

General Excitement Level: Maximal. The second most likely kid in the class to have a long, productive career at Michigan, IMO, behind Dann O'Neill.

Stonum's production disappointed, even after it was discovered that he'd been playing half-blind and needed contacts, and his career came to an untimely end after a string of alcohol- and driving-related arrests.

The last of the four receiver recruits was Roy Roundtree, another Trotwood-Madison star whose projection was the closest to the eventual reality:

General Excitement Level: Moderate. Never going to be a gamebreaker, but a likely contributor. Has to add a lot of weight to be an effective player.
Projection: Redshirts, plays sparingly his second year, and is 50-50 to emerge into Michigan's #2 WR.

Roundtree redshirted, then led the team in catches in each of the next two seasons, though this was more the product of the offense—Roundtree was the main beneficiary of QB Oh Noes—than him being a true #1 receiver, though he may be forced into that role this season.

Caveats Apply

The 2008 class also featured two four-star tight end recruits, though both came with significant question marks. For Brandon Moore, the third of the Trotwood trio, the question was whether he was the future star who earned top-100 rankings and big-time offers after a standout junior season or the potential bust whose stock slipped significantly during a disappointing senior year. Scout actually started out with Moore as their #98 overall prospect before dropping him all the way to three stars and the #43(!) tight end. The verdict:

General Excitement Level: High, with caveats. Moore is a boom-or-bust guy with much potential but a long way to go.
Projection: Great success, great failure, or somewhere in between. Specific cat is specific.

Barring an out-of-nowhere breakout season in 2012, bust it is.

Meanwhile, Michigan took a head-to-head battle with Ohio State for Toledo Whitmer's Kevin Koger, but it was unclear whether he'd stick at tight end or eventually make a move to defensive end:

It must be said: Koger is widely regarded a prospect of equal or greater merit at defensive end, and with Nick Perry's escape to Southern Cal Michigan finds themselves with one defensive end recruit across two classes. Though it's possible one of the linebackers -- most likely Marcus Witherspoon -- could end up with his hand down, Michigan is critically short there.

A down-the-line move was projected, but that was largely based on the assumption that Moore would pan out. Instead, it was Koger who'd get the lion's share of the snaps at tight end for the next four years.

Brian's O-line Knowledge Has Come A Long Way

One of the staples of the recruiting recaps is the "YMRMFSPA" section, in which Brian compares the recruit's style of play to a notable former player (usually a Wolverine, but not always, as evidenced by the Hester comparison for Odoms). With Michigan pulling in six offensive linemen in 2008, coming up with the proper approximation got a little difficult:

Dann O'Neill: YMRMFSPA Jake Long. No pressure.
Kurt Wermers: YMRMFSPA Matt Lentz?
Elliott Mealer: YMRMFSPA Matt Stenavich(?)
Rocko Khoury: YMRMFSPA Uh, that other un-touted guard person.
Ricky Barnum: YMRMFSPA Rod Payne?
Patrick Omameh: YMRMFSPA ????

Dave Petruziello and Leo Henige feel very neglected, man.

As you can see above, before Taylor Lewan was the Next Jake Long, that distinction went to Dann O'Neill, a top 100 recruit from Grand Haven. Not only was O'Neill quite a talent, his services were desperately needed along a thin offensive line:

Dann O'Neill might be Michigan's most critical recruit. The only tackles in the last two recruiting classes are incumbent RT Steve Schilling, three-star Perry Dorrestein, and two-star sleeper (as in "only had offers from MAC schools" sleeper) Mark Huyge. Finding two starting tackles from that group once the Zirbel-Ortmann class graduates in two years was looking very risky.

Brian projected O'Neill to start "at some point, hopefully later (say, as a redshirt sophomore) rather than sooner (say, this fall)." Instead, he never played a down as a Wolverine, transferring to Western Michigan after his freshman year. He would eventually earn a start at Michigan Stadium in 2011, but as a member of the Broncos.

The other future washout on the line was Indiana guard Kurt Wermers, whose off-field hobbies were not exactly typical of a football player [emphasis Brian's]:

Wermers was also named to the stupidly named "Offense-Defense Bowl" in Miami. The OD bowl appears to be a sort of second-tier all star game. Big whoop, except for the press release announcing the selection:

"Wermers, a veritable renaissance man whose hobbies include weightlifting, playing guitar, singing, and reading, also enjoys spending time on the virtual field of battle in the wildly popular massively multiplayer role-playing game World of Warcraft when not battling in the trenches on the football field."

This dovetails with information from May about Wermer's participation in... an a capella group:

"I love it," Wermers said of singing. "It gives me a chance to get away from big jocky athletic guys and hang out with a different group of people."

I don't think we'll be having any discipline issues with young Mr. Wermers. It's just a feeling.

Wermers left the team before the 2009 season, saying he decided to transfer because Rodriguez was "bringing in a lot of different kids that were not my kind of crowd," and running the team like a business (Wermers signed when Carr was the coach, but obviously never played under him). It was later revealed that Wermers was academically ineligible when he announced his transfer, probably because he was playing WoW instead of going to class. Discipline issues: check.

The player who's actually panned out was the lowest-ranked among the six, Patrick Omameh, a two-star DE to Rivals and the #87 OT to Scout. There wasn't much comment on Omameh beyond addressing his sleeper status; speculation about his future position turned out to go 0-for-2:

There are conflicting reports as to whether Omameh was recruited as a center (where his intelligence would help with the line calls) or tackle; that will get sorted out somewhere down the line.

As you know, Omameh is entering his third year as the full-time starter at... right guard.

Finally, Ricky Barnum peered into the future and got a serious head start on his future team's biggest rivalry:

Various people are probably irritated with Ricky Barnum: Urban Meyer, for one. Also OH OL Zebrie Sanders, who tried to commit to Florida but was told to talk to the hand because Barnum and another player had filled Florida's OL quotient for the year. Sanders, also rejected by Georgia for the same reason, ended up at Florida State and Urban ended up short one highly recruited interior lineman. Not that anyone will ever shed a tear for Urban Meyer.

Well done, Ricky.

The fortune cookie of articles. Does it seem like this description of Shaun Alexander's recruitment should end with "…in bed"?

Alexander drove through a snowstorm to Michigan, where the school’s recruiting hostesses greeted him in their standard-issued khaki pants and golf shirts.

A week later, Alabama representatives picked him up in a private jet. On the way to Tuscaloosa, the pilot slid over and let Alexander fly. Once on campus he was greeted by a group of sundress-wearing co-eds named the ’Bama Belles. The young lady assigned to Alexander was the reigning Miss Alabama runner-up.

I'm pretty sure I know what that infamous golf shirt outfit looks like (right):

Michigan has since replaced those shapeless… items with something more appealing. Maybe they allow the hostesses to wear something other than cotton garbage bags these days.

Michigan would get the last laugh when Ryan Pfluger shanked an extra point in the first overtime of the 2000 Orange Bowl, and in 2004 the NCAA would significantly restrict the ability of schools like Alabama to fete their recruits Paris Hilton-style. 

Show me your jets. There's been a lot of scuttlebutt about how Michael Shaw's injuries saw his abilities decrease in his intermittently-impressive freshman year, but I believe this is the first confirmation of such a thing from the man himself:

"I remember the Minnesota game, and nine times out of 10 that's a touchdown," Shaw said, referring to his 48-yard run, which led to his season-best 71-yard day. "I broke a long run and got dragged from behind. It was then that I was like, 'I'm really hurting. I've never not been able to run, not been able to explode.' " …

"I had significant playing time last year," Shaw said. "With those two guys (Minor and Brown) in front of me, it's up for grabs, and camp is a great platform for me to show I can still play and I'm ready. ... I'm about 90%. I'll be 100% by camp."

Yes. Remember that Mike Shaw is also made of dilithium. Last year he fumbled and disastrously tried to bounce it outside a few times each, but when he wasn't forcing facepalms out of the fanbase he was slashing into the secondary and picking up 20 or so yards a couple times per game.

Shaw's unlikely to wrest the starting job away from the two seniors unless both succumb to injuries. A good sophomore year would see Shaw remain healthy, rip off the occasional long run whilst spotting the two co-starters, and throw down the gauntlet for anyone who presumes to challenge him in 2010.

More for the great leap forward. The latest effort of Football Outsiders' college guru Bill Conolly tackles tailbacks and has a number of data points relevant to Michigan. The stat in question is "Points Over Expectation." The brief summary: it's a metric that rewards you for rushing for lots of yards over many carries. It's something midway between YPC and yardage. (You can get a longer explanation at the link above.)

The notes of interest:

1. Sam McGuffie checked in with the seventh-worst POE number in the country last year.
2. Brandon Minor had the 12th-best POE number, and is the tenth-best returning tailback.
3. !!!
4. Javon Ringer ran a lot, but to little effect:
   

   Ringer was fourth in the country in rushing yards last year, but where did he stack up in POE? A whopping 137th, between Ball State backup Cory Sykes and Colorado backup Demetrius Sumler. Ringer's 390 carries merited a POE of -0.3, meaning an average college running back would have put up exactly what he did in 390 carries. While there is certainly skill (or at least good genes) involved in managing 30 carries per game without breaking down, it is unlikely that the skills Ringer possesses will in any way translate to pro success

In football numbers always require interpretation. Mine: the difference between McGuffie and Minor is partially, maybe even mostly, due to the radical improvement of Michigan's offensive line as the season progressed. The vast bulk of Minor's carries came in the second, effective half of the season. McGuffie was stuck running behind some super-confused guys.

But, man, the size of that gap is epic. Minor was more effective by leaps and bounds. This may something anyone who watched the two could tell you anecdotally, but if last year's Michigan's running game was the 12th-most effective in the country when Minor got the ball that's an accomplishment nearing magnificence. I've been making the case here that we should expect the rushing offense to take a considerable step forward this year; these numbers support that, possibly even to an extent I haven't dared suggest.

On Ringer: I think most people who saw a lot of Ringer would disagree with Connolly's conclusion at least somewhat. Ringer's lack of per-carry production was a product of extreme overuse, predictable playcalling, and being backed by the "threat" of Brian Hoyer*. I've also heard from a couple of educated Michigan State fans that the reason last year's Michigan State team had about one run play—power off tackle—was the ineptness of the offensive line. That's all they could do. He was not put in a position where he could succeed, and he managed to get drafted despite Dantonio treating him like a pack mule. Ringer has talent—probably not NFL-level, but you could say that about a lot of tailbacks with much better POE numbers.

It'll be interesting to see whether the repertoire expands next year or if they're the new Rock, Rock, Rock of the Big Ten. I lean towards the latter. Dantonio may have herded the cats at State into something resembling a competent defense, but offensive creativity does not seem like a specialty.

*(Brandon Minor gets to deploy all these excuses as well since Michigan ran two-thirds of the time when he was the feature tailback, largely because the alternative was having Threet or Sheridan throw. And yet… the numbers. I'm going to go breathe into a paper bag for a while and then write "I will NOT predict 9-3" on a chalkboard 500 times.)

Ah, Doyel. I've previously called Gregg Doyel a junior-high version of Christopher Hitchens and that he remains, but goddamn if it isn't satisfying to read a Christopher Hitchens piece when his strident personal morality happens to intersect with yours. So, yeah, Doyel's latest is a rip job on the inane Meyer-to-ND meme personally started by professional provocateur Paul Finebaum, and I like it.

I want to highlight this bit:

Finebaum's source? He doesn't mention one. Because he doesn't have one. His source is either Spurrier's "rumor down there," or that vast empty space Finebaum calls his skull. …

the Meyer rumor won't leave. Newspapers in Gainesville, Fla., Nashville, Tenn., and Orlando, Fla., have written about it, all in the past six days. Why? Because of Spurrier. And Finebaum.

This is pretty much the exact thing newspaper partisans get upset about when a baseless rumor flies about the blogosphere, reproducing willy-nilly despite a total lack of evidence or credibility. This is not a bug unique to the internet. Like everything else, it just happens much more slowly in newspapers.

In a way it's even more likely to result in untruthiness. Scratch the right sort of Notre Dame, Michigan State, or Ohio State fan and eventually he'll say something along the lines of "lol, Shredriguez" because last year a West Virginia newspaper published an embarrassingly credulous story about Rodriguez invading the Sacred Single Hardcopy Room and destroying all evidence that West Virginia even had a football program. The thing in question takes on a patina of reality due to the institutional momentum behind such a meme—it in a newspaper, it must be true—even if it's purest crap.

Etc.: Terrific UMHoops post on the three-point line move and Michigan's bombing ways.

A disclaimer on the "You May Remember Me From Such Players As": YMRMFSPA is supposed to be a rough estimate of what kind of player the recruit could turn into if he pans out. It is not a projection. The players listed tend to be very good because no one knows what kind of player Doug Dutch is; we just know he can't get on the field. I am not saying that I expect Martavious Odoms to be Devin Hester, the best return man in the history of the NFL. I'm saying that Odoms is sort of like Devin Hester and if we roll a second critical hit on our critical hit roll he might be half as good.

End disclaimer. On with shew.

Justin Feagin

Delray Beach, Florida - 6'0" 190
		Scout	2*, #93 S
		Rivals	3*, #41 ATH
		ESPN	NR
		Lemming	NR
		Other Suitors	Rutgers, Syracuse, Miami (DB), LSU (WR)
		YMRMFSPA	Pat White, obvs. Or Reggie Ball with less fail.
Previously On MGoBlog	Thursday Recrutin'
Notes	Pronounced "Fay-gin." Like Faygo. He was destined to come up from birth. No word on if he likes ICP or not. Hopefully not.

Justin Feagin is Not Terrelle Pryor, and he is at the moment the only quarterback recruit in the class of 2008 and one of only three that will be on Michigan's roster this year. A small-school star largely ignored by the recruiting services, Feagin is the "dual" in Michigan's upcoming Dual Threet offense.* Zing!

I've said this before, but this is one of the recruits in this class I'm baselessly excited about in defiance of recruiting rankings and reason. If you're so inclined you can see Feagin doing squats until two in the morning in his quotes. Feagin on Pryor:

"What if he does go to Michigan? Shame on me if I sit back and think he's better than me. If he wants to play quarterback, we'll have to fight each other for the job. If I win the job, then I'll know I beat out the No. 1 quarterback in the nation."

Feagin on... Pryor:

"I hope, and it would be better for me, if he goes to Michigan. That really lets me see where I stand as a quarterback and if I have really enough potential. He's a good player, and if he goes there that means I have to work twice as hard to get what I want."

This seems something other than the standard blah blah bleur bleur, and I've read a lot of blah blah bleur bleur in my time. Highlights:

Feagin was also heavily involved in his team's state championship, running for 200-some yards and getting burned for a couple touchdowns by Alabama recruit Melvin Ray. He finished third in Florida's Mr. Football voting this year despite playing in the state's smallest classification.

Feagin's recruitment got off to a slow start but by his senior year he had offers from a dozen schools, most prominently LSU (for wide receiver) and Miami (for defensive back). Feagin wanted a shot at quarterback and waited, at which point I think the big schools pulled their offers due to space concerns. (Miami was so full they were trying to jam Martavious Odoms in their class by offering him a track scholarship.) Michigan was left with Rutgers and Syracuse and won that battle.

Feagin sounds like the kind of guy who will thrive under the pressure of the Rodriguez regime and is clearly a high caliber athlete. However, he'll take a ton of developing to be a legitimate quarterback, especially at his height, and I expect that he'll serve as an insurance policy for Threet until such time as the coaching staff can bring in some more highly-touted guys, at which point he'll find a home at wide receiver or in the secondary.

*(Anyone wanting to fight me about that sentence is welcome to.)

Guru Reliability: Dude, like nil. I don't care if he's not an actual quarterback, anyone who has offers from Miami and LSU is not a two-star prospect, Scout. And ESPN didn't even evaluate him.
General Excitement Level: Moderate overall, meh at QB.
Projection: Someone's going to play Tebow to Threet's Chris Leak this fall; unless Carlos Brown locks that down, it'll be Feagin. I have no idea what to expect, but think his future is probably somewhere other than quarterback.

Sam McGuffie

Cypress, Texas - 5'11" 180
		Scout	4*, #7 RB, #63 overall
		Rivals	4*, #10 all purpose back
		ESPN	79, #30 RB
		Lemming	#29 overall
		Other Suitors	USC, Alabama, Texas A&M, Cal
		YMRMFSPA	Noel Devine
Previously On MGoBlog	The very first mixtape appearance. McGuffaggedon is nigh. The liveblog of his HS game.
Notes	Good... bad... he's the guy with the gun.

The most obscure member of Michigan's 2008 recruiting class, little-known Sam McGuffie had a moderately successful junior year devoid of highlights, long touchdown runs, and Superman-like feats. Please enjoy this five minute compilation of three yard off-tackle runs:

Mmmm, second and seven.

Despite all of that above -- part of a remarkable junior season in which McGuffie ran for 3,121 yards and 43 touchdowns -- Rivals cited his size and controversially omitted him from their initial top 100, then several more editions of the list before relenting after a Nike camp where McGuffie impressed.

When the season rolled around, McGuffie picked up a high-ankle sprain and a shoulder separation, missing large portions of the first two games before blowing up for 500 yards in the next two. Scout shot him up into their top 50; Rivals dropped him down 100 spots. When McGuffie's nationally televised game rolled around, he limped through an entertaining loss to another team with the word "Cy" in it somewhere. By that time his shoulder injury had gotten so bad that his attempts at pass protection consisted of falling at blitzers' feet. when it looked like he was going to get hit, he spun away from it and went back-first into tacklers. It was weird, and disappointing until the extent of his injuries came out. He probably shouldn't have been playing at all.

Rivals dropped him out of their top 250.

I'm not one of those who scoffs at recruiting rankings, but their continued skepticism about McGuffie is puzzling. He has the offers (Michigan, Florida, USC amongst a host of others), the stats at perhaps the highest level of competition available in high school football, and reel after reel of jaw-dropping highlights. He has the fourth-highest SPARQ rating in the history of whatever the hell a SPARQ rating is because he showed up at a combine before his junior year of high school and ripped off a 4.32 40, a 3.83 shuttle -- I'm not exactly sure if my calculations are correct, but I believe this means he finished the shuttle before he started it -- and a 41' vertical leap.

Though the guys around McGuffie aren't exactly household names yet one, Josh Haden, just got done starting his freshman year as a Florida cornerback. And though McGuffie weighed in at just 164 pounds at that combine, this year he was supposedly up to 185. Stature didn't keep Rivals from ranking Noel Devine the #15 prospect of 2007.

I don't get it. Plenty of offers, spectacular performance when he's not injured, eye-popping combine performances, and the most electrifying highlight reel of the year equals diss. I'm with Scout and Tom Lemming: Sam McGuffie is awesome.

With McGuffie's supply of awesome established, we can turn to how he fits in the spread 'n' shred. Even skeptical Rivals gave McGuffie the nod as the year's best RB in space:
Other observers thought it odd he was going to Michigan instead of a place like Texas Tech that would spread the field and take advantage of his particular talents.

Uh... check.

Guru Reliability: Two warring camps, so low.
General Excitement Level: AAAAIIEEEE! Man... this offense is McGuffie's jam, man, and the Church Of Barwis will excommunicate anyone who doubts his his's ability to get up to 200-some pounds without compromising his lightning quicks. Steve Slaton says what.
Projection: He's the man, man. Will battle Brown and Grady for carries at first; probably a Noel Devine role his first year.

Mike Cox

Avon, Connecticut - 6'0" 203
		Scout	4*, #35 RB
		Rivals	3*, NR
		ESPN	77, #69 RB
		Lemming	NR
		Other Suitors	UConn, Maryland, BC, Penn State(?)
		YMRMFSPA	Mister Simpson
Previously On MGoBlog	Meet Mike Cox? Also there is a sort-of transcript of a Facebook interview.
Notes	Degree of difficulty applies on all jokes about his name. (IE: please no "Mike Cox is huge" jokes.)

All that sarcastic stuff about McGuffie above actually does apply to Cox, who showed up at Michigan's camp a complete unknown and left a Michigan commitment. Cox grabbed a RB offer from highly touted instate back Jonas Gray despite Gray's blazing 4.3 forty. Gray was given an "athlete" offer; Cox was the guy Michigan wanted.

There's almost zero reliable data on Cox. His high school conference is well known for hockey -- read full of rich white guys named "Higginbotham" (no, literally) -- and is awful at football. Adding to the uncertainty is a senior-year injury that kept him out of four of his team's measly eight games against the sweater-as-cape pricks of the world. We know the Michigan coaching staff liked him enough to offer him over Gray, but that was for Mike Debord's zone stretch extravaganza. Rodriguez runs a completely different offense.

Cox got offered by East Coast schools like Boston College and Maryland, so he's not a total flier, but... yeah, still pretty much a flier.

Guru Reliability: Nil. Cox hits all the potential sleeper checkmarks: injury, obscure school, overlooked part of the country, questionable level of competition.
General Excitement: Meh.
Projection: Cox had mediocre offers and guru rankings -- even the Scout 4* is a fringe one -- and was recruited to play an entirely different system. He seems the least likely skill recruit to contribute.

Michael Shaw

Trotwood, Ohio - 6'0" 185
		Scout	4*, #29 RB, #215 overall
		Rivals	4*, #6 RB, #102 overall
		ESPN	78, #58 RB
		Lemming	NR
		Other Suitors	Penn State, Tennessee, Iowa, Nebraska
		YMRMFSPA	Antonio Pittman
Previously On MGoBlog	Nothing, as he was a PSU commit forever.
Notes	FWIW, "Takkle" ranks him #62.

(Shaw is listed here but only nominally, as the general consensus is that Michigan will bring him in as a receiver.)

The last signing-day heist to come in for Rich Rodriguez and his wizard hat, Michael Shaw is a guy stuck between two positions. Shaw was a running back for the Trotwood-Madison program that was so generous to Michigan this year, but most observers believe he's being brought in as a slot wide receiver by Michigan.

By June, Shaw had a ton of offers. Michigan was among them and was rumored to be the favorite for his commitment, but the presence (and skittishness) of RB commit Sam McGuffie caused Michigan to offer Shaw as a DB. He didn't like that and committed to Penn State in August. In November he made a brief cameo in the Rivals 100, though he eventually ended up just outside of it. He seemed content until Rich Rodriguez was hired at Michigan; in early January he announced he'd take visits to Tennessee and Michigan. He only took the latter, then went dark until Signing Day, whereupon The Drama unfolded.

That's been hashed and re-hashed. Currently un-hashed: what does Michigan have in Shaw? Scout on Shaw after seeing him in the Herbstreit game against Kentucky Highlands:

It was not like people did not notice him while he led Alter a state championship in 2006, but the move to the "Wood" guaranteed that schools could no longer delay in making him know that he was at the top of their priority list. He was considered by many to be a "system" back, but this game should quiet those critics. He is an explosive player that is multi-faceted. His hands are amazing, he has a feel for the defenders, he has good feet, and he is undoubtedly one of he fastest players in the Midwest.

Bob Lichtenfels' impression from the same game:

The four-star running back showed his electric hips and superb vision. Shaw is not only a great back, but he is a tremendous receiver out of the backfield.

ESPN disagrees completely, complimenting Shaw's ability to get "tough yards after contact" but expressing concern about his speed. He "lacks an extra gear." Which is, like... the exact opposite of what everyone else says. WTF?

I am not a scout, but in the Shaw video at Scouting Ohio I saw a guy with a knack for catching the flare, good speed, and exactly one move: an upfield cut followed by a bounce-out that got him outside high school defenders with regularity. He's clearly fast, sets up his blocks pretty well, and has that glide cut down -- thus the comparison to Antonio Pittman above. But virtually no Shaw runs were between the tackles. Tough yards after contact were few and far between. Maybe ESPN got the wrong film or the highlight reel misrepresents Shaw's strengths... but that's a lot of outside pitches. In comparison the Sam McGuffie tape is full of spins, slashes, hurdles, and wicked cuts both upfield and outside. I can see why Shaw's projected as a wideout.

Not like that will matter hugely, anyway. In the Rodriguez system the slot guys are half running back, frequently coming into the backfield to participate in a triple option, reverse, or end-around. Darius Reynaud, WVU primary slot receiver for the past few years, replaced Steve Slaton at RB when he left the 2006 Louisville game, and was a frequent target on screens that function as running plays and the occasional end-around.

Guru Reliability: High, with the exception of ESPN.
General Excitement: Moderate.
Projection: I don't know what position he'll play or how good of a fit he'll be at either. He seems to be out-RBed by McGuffie and out-slotted by Odoms and Robinson. His high school stats (around 5 or 6 YPC) are also a little lacking compared to most high DI caliber guys.

Position Grades

Quarterback. The below assumes no Pryor. If Pryor does pick Michigan, it's an obvious A+.

D. With Rodriguez's entrance Mallett's exit QB instantly shot to the top of Michigan's to-do list and Justin Feagin isn't sufficient when your other QBs are career backup David Cone and well-regarded but unproven Steven Threet. Don't get me wrong, I like Feagin in an irrational way, but I'd like him even better as the second quarterback who could pan out but no big deal if he does or not and not, like, the only athletic QB on the roster.

Rodriguez was handicapped by his late switch and what appear to be ludicrous demands on the part of South Florida signee BJ Daniels, but this remains a results-based charting service.

Running Back: A. Your personal grade will vary based on your opinion of Sam McGuffie's talents. He's Bill Brasky to me, so up goes the A. Picking up Michael Shaw is an excellent insurance policy/secondary recruit that almost guarantees Michigan will have a high caliber tailback from this class. Mike Cox has a funny name and could contribute.

MGuffie is in.

Woo McGuffie! It's dramatic early; up and running with this altcast thing ASAP.