race thompson

No photog in Bloomington, so enjoy IU/Michigan pics from last time [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Three days earlier, the 2022-23 Michigan Men's Basketball team provided us with a play that seemed to symbolize the ineptitude in late games and the general feeling that most fans got watching this team, Joey Baker's airball on a perfect look from three that would've tied the game and sent it to another OT. All you could do is chuckle sardonically at the agony of the moment and perhaps feel a little bad for the players, hopeless in crunch time yet again. It seemed like the rollercoaster experience in Champaign on Thursday was as perfect as it would get to sum up this team. 

Then we got today. After Indiana had improbably missed a fourth straight free throw across two possessions with a chance to put the game away in OT, Michigan had one more chance to tie, down two, with just four seconds left. Kobe Bufkin snagged the rebound, zig-zagged through traffic as he approached half-court, and went to pass the ball to Hunter Dickinson. The problem was, Hunter's back was to Bufkin. The ball hit Dickinson square in the back and dropped like a stone to the floor. Indiana's Tamar Bates scooped it up and time expired. Michigan didn't even attempt a tying shot. Instead they threw a pass into a guy's back. Somehow, it sums it up even better than the Baker airball. 

-------

For most of the first half, it didn't seem like Michigan would even have the spark to create a game with the potential to end in such upsetting fashion. Over the first ~16 minutes, the visiting Wolverines were a carcass. They scored just 13 points over that span, and scored just three over an eight minute stretch lasting over the middle of the half. The Wolverines battled turnovers and mental errors early on and couldn't hit a three point shot to save their lives. They opened the game 1/10 from beyond the arc and on defense, they were getting killed in the paint. Indiana had as many points in the paint as Michigan had points total at one point, and Assembly Hall was rocking. With almost four minutes left, Indiana led 27-13. 

Michigan got it together rapidly in the closing minutes though, finishing the half of a 14-2 run which dramatically changed the feel of the first twenty minutes of play. Kobe Bufkin slammed a dunk down and then hit a jumper before Dickinson engineered a personal 8-0 run, the last of which was an and-one off a beautiful pass from Dug McDaniel, one of his best out of the PNR this season. Indiana then turned the ball over, Michigan ran the floor, and Jett Howard made a dunk and Michigan went into the break down just 29-27, a stunning sea change in the game. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The momentum they accumulated in the back half of the opening twenty carried over into the first minutes of the second half, which is when the outside shooting came on-line. Bufkin hit a fadeaway two-point jumper to tie the game on the opening possession and the next time down the floor Jett Howard swished a three to give Michigan their first lead in ages. They just kept raining threes and after a Dickinson dunk made it 42-34 Michigan, Mike Woodson called timeout and Assembly Hall was silenced. Indiana made a strong charge out of the timeout initially but the Wolverines built their lead up even further, stretching it to 52-40 with 13:42 remaining. 

The next few minutes ticked away with the Wolverines retaining breathing room, even if the unfavorable road whistle was rearing its head, with Will Tschetter picking up a foul for being elbowed in the face and the officiating crew missing several out of bounds calls, giving the ball to the Hoosiers. Dug McDaniel connected on a three to put Michigan back up double digits, 59-49, at almost exactly the halfway point of the second half, and the lead was 60-51 after he went 1/2 at the line with nine minutes to go, which is when Indiana began their hard charge. 

Indiana got a three from Miller Kopp to trim the lead to six and then Tarris Reed Jr. missed the front-end of a one-and-one. The ball was rebounded down by Race Thompson, who would eventually knock down a hook shot to make it a four point game and then a brilliant pass from Trayce Jackson-Davis to Thompson for an and-one dunk left the score at 60-59. In the meantime, Michigan's offense had gone cold, poor ball movement leading to low percentage shots being jacked up. One such was a late shot clock heave by Kobe Bufkin on a long two, which Dickinson rebounded down and put back for an and-one (that was completed), finally snapping the funk. 63-59 Wolverines, 6:11 left. 

[Campredon]

The Hoosiers had an answer, a three for Tamar Bates following a sweet feed from TJD out of a double team, but Michigan had a response with a Tarris Reed putback. Will Tschetter had free throws at 65-62 out of the under four media timeout, but missed the front-end of a one-and-one. Michigan snagged the OREB but were completely unaware of the state of the shot clock, ending in a turnover where they were not even close to getting a shot away. Indiana took it down the floor and a nifty Jackson-Davis layup cut the lead to one. On the other end, TJD forced a turnover and then back on offense, Jackson-Davis hit another layup to give the Hoosiers the lead. 66-65 IU, 2:49 to play. 

Michigan wasn't done. Kobe Bufkin's three popped out, but Hunter Dickinson swatted Jackson-Davis and Bufkin would be fouled going to the bucket. He made them both and Michigan led 67-66 with 1:46. TJD would be fouled in a rather questionable call on Indiana's next possession, but the ball didn't lie and he missed the front-end free throw. Michigan fed Dickinson in the post, who rattled a hook shot home to put the Wolverines ahead 69-66 with 1:15 to go. Perhaps the biggest shot of the game came on the next possession, a Jalen Hood-Schifino stepback three that sent Assembly Hall into a frenzy.

The game was now tied with 44 seconds to play after Juwan Howard called a timeout. Out of the timeout, the Wolverines turned it over to Race Thompson in the paint, who then ran the floor, but terrific transition defense from Bufkin produced a miss. The Maize & Blue rebounded it down and now with 23 seconds left and the shotclock off, they had a chance to hold for the final shot. Howard took his last timeout to draw up a play, which seemed to be a plan to enter the post with Dickinson, but IU sold out to take that option away. Without a plan, the Michigan players ran out of ideas, dribbling it around before frantically asking Dickinson to jack up a three, who clanged it off the iron. Indiana rebounded it and called timeout with less than a second to go. Amazingly, they drew up a perfect play to get TJD a chance at the buzzer, but his half-court shot was just off the mark and Michigan would be headed to OT for the third straight game. 

[Campredon]

Overtime got off to a very poor start for the Wolverines on offense, Bufkin missing a floater, a McDaniel layup being blocked, and several horrible possessions in between. Thompson's hook shot got the scoring started for the Hoosiers and when Miller Kopp hit a two (initially called a three) to stretch the lead to 6 with 2:21 left, the home crowd was rocking. Michigan didn't make their first bucket until three minutes of OT had elapsed, but it was a big one: Dickinson knocked down a three to draw the Wolverines closer. Indiana's next shot that went up ricocheted out of bounds, but Michigan wasted the possession, which ended on Dickinson getting stuffed and Reed missing the awkward second-chance heave. 

The score was then 75-72 with a minute to go. Michigan played defense and got the stop, but tried to enter the post out of the timeout again (strange with so little time left and taking into account the score) and turned it over. They fouled Indiana, but Race Thompson missed both free throws with 14 seconds left, giving the Wolverines more life. Indiana would foul strategically with six seconds left, sending Dug McDaniel to the line. He made the first and then, in a decision presumably made by Juwan Howard during a timeout, missed the second on purpose, looking for an offensive rebound and igniting conversation online. Regardless of merits, the play was unsuccessful, as Thompson rebounded it down and was fouled again with four seconds left. This then leads us to the sequence in the opening, as Thompson improbably missed both again, gifting the Wolverines one last chance. Which Bufkin of course threw into Dickinson's back, ending the game. 

Good riddance. 

[Click the JUMP for the stats, a brief rant, and the box score]

will not be missed [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

While Michigan's 2021-22 roster is mostly set, the same can't be said for much of the Big Ten—or, really, most programs in the country between a packed transfer portal, the pandemic year option for seniors to return without counting against the scholarship cap, and up-in-the-air NBA Draft decisions.

There's been a lot of movement over the last few days, including this morning's announcement that Northwestern shooter Miller Kopp is transferring within the conference to Indiana. This week, I'll be going over where each Big Ten program's roster stands in alphabetical order, and I'll rank each team's current outlook at the end. Here are some important dates to keep in mind as players make decisions about their future:

  • May 30: Last day to apply for NBA Draft as an early entry
  • June 21-27: NBA Draft Combine
  • July 19: Last day for early entry to withdraw from NBA Draft

I made sure to note which players intend to sign with an agent, making them ineligible to withdraw, and which have left the door open to come back to school. I've also noted which players are in the transfer portal—which, as Indiana has displayed, doesn't prevent a return—and which have chosen another school. Returning seniors able to use the COVID waiver for an extra year are referred to as "super seniors."

Illinois

Key departures: G Ayo Dosunmu (draft w/ agent), F Giorgi Bezhanishvili (draft or overseas), W Adam Miller (transfer)

Key additions/super seniors: G Trent Frazier (super senior), C Omar Payne (Florida transfer), G Alfonso Plummer (Utah transfer)

Up in the air: C Kofi Cockburn (draft w/o agent), W Da'Monte Williams (possible super senior)

The Illini are going to look very different next season. Ayo Dosunmu is hiring an agent for the draft and won't be back. Kofi Cockburn also isn't expected to return after declaring over the weekend—it's rare for a player to return when they test the draft waters a second time, which is the case with Cockburn. Giorgi Bezhanishvili is going to the professional ranks too, though his role diminished in conjunction with Cockburn's emergence.

In a surprise move, former top-50 recruit Adam Miller entered the transfer portal despite starting all 31 games as a freshman. He hasn't said much since entering the portal and has been connected with Arizona, DePaul, Kentucky, and Michigan, though that seems largely based on his recruitment out of high school. He showed promise as a spot-up shooter and defender.

Brad Underwood added another former top-50 recruit in Florida transfer Omar Payne, who's mostly come off the bench in his first two seasons and was passed by Michigan transfer Colin Castleton in 2020-21. Payne blocks a lot of shots but is still quite raw; not that this is a fair comparison, but he won't come close to replicating Cockburn's production. (He may, however, try to take someone's head off.) Illinois needs big leaps from sophomores Coleman Hawkins and Jacob Grandison to have an above-average frontcourt as things stand; they're a strong candidate to hit the transfer portal for another big.

Getting Trent Frazier back for a fifth year helped shore up a backcourt that'll dearly miss Dosunmu, as did this weekend's addition of Utah grad transfer Alfonso Plummer, a 6'1 guard who's a career 40% three-point shooter on high volume and a teammate of Illini guard Andre Curbelo on the Puerto Rico national team. That helps offset the loss of Miller on offense and then some, though the undersized Plummer is unlikely to match him as a defender—his defensive metrics from Utah aren't good.

The Illini don't have much in the way of instant-impact freshmen unless someone plays above their ranking. The three-player 2021 class is headlined by a pair of 6'7 small forwards who both slipped just inside the top 100 on the 247 Composite, though recent three-star SG signee Brandon Podziemski has significantly differing opinions on his talent after posting huge numbers against underwhelming Wisconsin high school competition.

It's hard not to see this team taking a significant step back in 2022. There isn't another Dosunmu or Cockburn coming in, or even an Adam Miller. The next couple years of Underwood's tenure may make or break his time in Champaign.

[Hit THE JUMP for Indiana's wild offseason, Iowa's rough one, MSU's impact transfer, and more.]

that tourney hopes are slipping away feeling [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Current Standings (As Of Feb. 25th)

  B1G Record Overall Record B1G Efficiency Margin Record vs. Q1 KenPom Torvik NET Bracket Matrix Avg. Seed
Maryland 12-4 22-5 5.3 6-5 8 19 10 2.11
Michigan State 10-6 18-9 8.9 5-8 7 7 13 5.04
Illinois 10-6 18-9 3.3 5-7 29 27 35 7.83
Iowa 10-6 19-8 3.0 7-6 22 24 27 5.72
Wisconsin 10-6 17-10 2.8 7-8 27 23 30 7.21
Penn State 10-6 20-7 2.4 7-5 21 10 25 4.58
Michigan 9-7 18-9 4.8 7-8 10 11 22 5.63
Rutgers 9-8 18-10 2.5 3-8 32 30 34 9.71
Ohio State 8-8 18-9 1.6 5-8 11 13 19 5.88
Indiana 8-8 18-9 -3.7 6-7 37 40 52 9.36
Minnesota 7-9 13-13 -1.2 5-9 31 28 42  
Purdue 7-10 14-14 0.1 4-11 25 25 36 next four out
Nebraska 2-14 7-20 -12.6 1-12 134 126 187  
Northwestern 1-15 6-20 -17.0 0-14 132 110 177  

As we so boldly predicted when some projections had 12 Big Ten teams in the NCAA Tournament field, a couple of the teams towards the bottom are fading down the stretch. Minnesota needs a miraculous run to make the tourney, while Purdue has slid from being in the field last week to the eighth team out in the current Bracket Matrix. While Indiana has a stronger foothold after a 2-0 week, they travel to Purdue and Illinois this week—they could easily slide back into perilous territory.

On the other end of things, The Athletic's Eamonn Brennan has moved Michigan and Ohio State into tournament lock territory, joining Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, and Iowa.

Home vs. road has been so important in the Big Ten—home teams have won 69.9% of their games, second-highest of any conference—that I wanted to take a look at which teams actually perform well when outside the comfy confines of their own arena.

Splitsville: Home vs. Neutral/Road

Isaiah Livers knows when a coach is out of his element [Campredon]

As usual, shoutout to Bart Torvik for providing customizable rankings. The goal here was to see the difference in overall ranking between each team's performance in away or neutral games and their home games. Since these offensive/defensive efficiencies and the resulting BARTHAG (Torvik's overall ranking) are adjusted for venue, there shouldn't necessarily be a split between a team's home and neutral/road numbers.

That's not the case in the Big Ten.

Only four teams are better in away/neutral games than at home even when adjusted for venue. Meanwhile, five teams drop over 40 spots in the overall rankings when they leave home. This is ordered by how well teams play away from home:

  A/N Win-Loss A/N Adj. OE (Rank) A/N Adj. DE (Rank) A/N BARTHAG (Rank) Home Win-Loss H Adj. OE (Rank) H Adj. DE (Rank) Home BARTHAG (Rank) A/N BARTHAG Delta vs. H BARTHAG Rank
Penn State 7-5 114.3 (12) 92.2 (27) .9224 (6) 13-2 106.6 (85) 86.8 (8) .9133 (27) +21
Michigan 8-5 110.1 (29) 89.0 (10) .9200 (7) 10-4 113.8 (21) 91.7 (49) .9231 (17) +10
Michigan State 8-6 109.1 (35) 92.0 (25) .8766 (21) 10-3 116.6 (12) 86.4 (5) .9623 (2) -19
Maryland 7-5 110.4 (23) 93.6 (40) .8702 (23) 15-0 107.5 (73) 87.3 (10) .9166 (21) -2
Illinois 5-6 109.6 (31) 92.9 (33) .8695 (24) 12-3 106.1 (95) 89.8 (31) .8723 (40) +16
Iowa 6-7 115.5 (8) 99.1 (134) .8542 (31) 13-1 117.1 (10) 95.1 (91) .9169 (20) -11
Minnesota 3-9 106.3 (62) 93.4 (35) .8150 (41) 10-4 111.7 (26) 90.8 (43) .9160 (22) -19
Ohio State 4-7 106.3 (60) 93.8 (44) .8094 (45) 14-2 119.4 (3) 88.3 (20) .9699 (1) -44
Northwestern 2-10 110.1 (28) 99.0 (131) .7731 (55) 4-10 100.5 (200) 99.0 (161) .5439 (170) +115
Wisconsin 4-9 99.9 (175) 90.5 (15) .7578 (61) 13-1 117.4 (9) 92.1 (57) .9425 (13) -48
Rutgers 1-9 105.7 (72) 96.1 (74) .7496 (65) 16-1 106.0 (98) 85.2 (4) .9251 (16) -49
Purdue 4-10 99.2 (190) 90.9 (18) .7332 (72) 10-4 119.0 (5) 90.5 (38) .9588 (7) -65
Indiana 4-6 101.3 (155) 94.2 (49) .6969 (85) 14-3 112.1 (25) 91.8 (51) .9083 (29) -56
Nebraska 2-11 103.3 (107) 100.9 (169) .5678 (124) 5-9 101.8 (173) 97.8 (139) .6147 (138) +14

While this exercise put a dent in my Penn State skepticism, it reinforced the feeling that Michigan is primed for a run in at least one postseason tournament—the offense holds relatively steady and defense has actually been better away from Crisler. Is it a coincidence that these two have a couple of the weaker home crowds in the Big Ten? Reader, I'll leave that up to you.

Northwestern and Nebraska are the only other teams that improve when not at home. While the Huskers stay relatively level, the splits for the Wildcats are remarkable: while their defense remains exactly the same in adjusted efficiency, the offense is nearly ten full points per 100 possessions better away from Welsh-Ryan. This hasn't resulted in wins, so I wonder if this is mostly the effect of a dead home crowd making it difficult to stay in games mentally when the team is losing. Then again, you'd think that'd impact the defense as much if not more than the offense.

Anyway, let's talk teams that matter. Michigan State, to the surprise of nobody reading this site, doesn't do as well when not at the Breslin Center, but they're still a top-25 team away from home. The five that experience massive dropoffs: Ohio State (#1 at home to #45 on the road), Wisconsin (#13 to #61), Rutgers (#16 to #65), Purdue (#7 to #72), and Indiana (#29 to #85). In every case save one, the offense goes into a shell when not at home; the exception is Rutgers, which plays maniacal defense at home and merely decent defense away from the RAC.

Those five are teams you want to catch either at home down the stretch or in the Big Ten Tournament. Michigan gets some good and some bad this week; they play Wisconsin at home on Thursday before going to Ohio State, the #1 home team in the country(!), on Sunday.

Notable Games This Week

Tonight: Iowa at Michigan State (7 pm, ESPN 2)

Wednesday: Rutgers at Penn State (7, ESPN)

Thursday: Wisconsin at Michigan (7, ESPN2), Indiana at Purdue (7, FS1)

Saturday: Penn State at Iowa (noon, BTN), Michigan State at Maryland (8, ESPN)

Sunday: Indiana at Illinois (2, BTN), Michigan at Ohio State (4, CBS), Minnesota at Wisconsin (6:30, BTN)

[Hit THE JUMP for stock up/down and a WBB update, including a clean sweep of State]