quarterback controversy

My answers ran long on NIL and transfers and Michigan’s clans, so I broke this mailbag into parts. The first is here, and this is the second, focused more on the Michigan 2022 questions. There were enough questions about Michigan’s scheme that I might pop out a third next week, or decide to save them for Neck Sharpies over the offseason.

Program Direction?

UofM Die Hard in Seattle asks:

Do you, Brian, Alex, etc …feel like this ship is finally ready to run on all engines, consistently year in and year out? Do you believe Jim when he says this feels like a beginning?

I can’t speak for the others but I do not, no.

It is the nature of college football to create narratives to fill in for chance. Flip a coin five times; if the first four are tails, Coinflip fans will argue whether the flipper or the coin needs to be replaced. Turn up heads on the fifth flip, and that’s the one we make a Teams podcast about.

“How great was 2021?” and “How good is the program that produced it?” are different questions, however, and the second requires acknowledgement that there’s a lot of variance. I think Michigan was a little lucky to win this time, and very unlucky that only one of five Harbaugh teams that played at this level came out champions. You know close they came. Alter an inch in 2016 and a Piggy 2pt conversion pass in 2018 and Harbaugh has two Big Ten East championships before Chris Olave ever lined up across from Brandon Watson (now Rusnak).

One good exercise when you’re trying to sanity-check the results of a season is to flip all the one-score games, and see how you feel about the season. We now have losses to Rutgers, at Nebraska, and at Penn State, but a win at MSU. That results in 9-3/6-3, 2nd place in the B10 East, and probably a Peach Bowl. Somewhere between that hypothetical (and still satisfying) season and the one we got was 2021’s peak distribution. Do that for the last seven years:

• 2015: 10-3, beat Utah and MSU, losses at Minnesota and Indiana
• 2016: 12-1, lose to Wisconsin, beat Iowa, OSU, FSU (probably in the playoffs)
• 2017: 9-4, beat MSU, lose at Indiana, beat S.Carolina to preserve the B10 bowl sweep.
• 2018: 10-3, beat Notre Dame, lose at Northwestern (blame “The Call from Mars”)
• 2019: 8-5, lose to Army and Iowa at home, beat Penn State on the road (probably doesn’t get Bama)
• 2020: 2-4, beat MSU, but no Rutgers comeback.

…and it looks like Harbaugh’s had Michigan playing at a B+ or A- level every season except the one where they had to play all true sophomores, and the one with all the COVID. The 2019 team was a lot better than the flip-it record.

There’s zero shame in coming out better than the flip hypothetical  —not only were we due, but it’s a mark of intangible things like timely decisions and plays. That’s where you get into things like Aidan Hutchinson’s leadership, how the players liked their coaches, how this team had fewer disgruntled players than others. I don’t have any way to measure that, or to know if it will continue, so it goes in the luck bin, but I believe in it. Also 42-27 was no fluke.

In the short term they’ve got fresh and upcoming talent at DT and CB—two talent-based areas we’ve been fretting about since 2018—and a ton of upside in JJ McCarthy and the receiver room Gattis put together for him. All four linebacker spots are sus, and Grandpa Hawkins’s stabilizing presence is an underratedly hard thing to replace. Past that they’re set up to return most of the 2022 team in 2023, but getting there requires navigating treacherous waters with new dangers, like the possibility LSU comes and buys your starting DT (like they did Mizzou’s this week). Depending on McCarthy’s development, the next few years could be a peak.

Long-term, it’s hard to say while we’re still waiting out Harbaugh. That’s gone on long enough that I now believe he probably does want to get back to the NFL, but the NFL isn’t biting. What version of Harbaugh does Michigan get back after that? People slow down with age and security, even The Jackhammer. I think Michigan’s climbed back to their Carr baseline, or where Dantonio got Michigan State, but the next step is the hardest, and the gatekeepers to that level are very keen to keep us out. Something more fundamental would have to change, from an expanded playoffs, massive schedule realignment, or new way of doing things at the NCAA that makes Michigan’s (and Penn State’s and Notre Dame’s) peculiar advantages into the most important ones.

If there is a difference now, it isn’t the underlying strength of the program but the fanbase’s mental fortitude. College football rewards highs and punishes lows, producing a few fanbases that can only experience relief when they don’t lose, and many losers whose only joy is others’ sorrow. Michigan fell down long enough to shed their hubris, and got back up with love receptors intact.

Intellectually, 2021’s may have been a Michigan team like many others. But to a new generation of fans, the experience gave them heroes and stories of their own. You don’t need statues, Seth & Sap, or other crusty old men to know what Michigan glory feels like anymore. A hundred thousand people saw it, and million more will one day claim to have. You get to tell those stories now. You were there. And will be for awhile yet. Long live snow.

10/25/2021 – Michigan 33, Northwestern 7 – 7-0, 4-0 Big Ten

Michigan is 7-0 and has just dispatched an inferior opponent in almost exactly the manner expected to pregame. The Vegas spread was 23.5. The actual spread was 26. Michigan outgained Northwestern two-to-one even if they gave up a 75-yard touchdown. So naturally the Michigan internet is on fire in more or less the same way they would be if the team was hewing close to preseason expectations. (IE: they were butt.)

This is because of a quarterback controversy that currently exists only in the minds of fans. I could explain it but we're Michigan people so someone's already made graphs.

Cade McNamara is the game manager with limited upside and limited downside who will not lose a game to Northwestern or defanged Penn State or Indiana; JJ McCarthy could be anything and therefore gives you a better shot of cashing this season in at the end of it. The diagram further asserts that McNamara's overall level of play is a titch better than McCarthy's but that doesn't matter for the relevant question.

Because we are Michigan fans the diagrams top out at a 10% chance of beating OSU, and therein lies the mania. For most other programs, this level of performance would be cause for celebration. The quarterback hiccups would be small blemishes on an otherwise impeccable resume, because the last game of the season would not be a gallows. (Or, in Auburn's case, the last game of the season is a gallows that they will escape due to a brief, inexplicable failure of quantum mechanics.)

For Michigan in this moment, every missed deep shot immediately induces not only frustration in the immediate circumstance but reinforces the dread certainty that this guy ain't beating OSU. This would matter less if the team was butt and nobody was beating OSU—although in that circumstance they'd still be calling for the five-star freshman since nobody is beating OSU. You can't win when you're in front of the guy with the woo woo on his 24/7 profile.

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this is Cornelius Johnson, not RJ Moten [Bryan Fuller]

I can see both sides of the QB debate. On the one hand I'm pretty negative about McNamara's performances to date, though not as negative as PFF:

McNamara earned a 57.8 passing grade and led the Wolverines to negative expected points added (EPA) per pass play. The Wolverines signal-caller earned a 37.9 passing grade on passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield, as he completed just 1-of-6 pass attempts for 12 yards. At this point, it is painfully obvious that McNamara will not be able to carry Michigan to victory when they need to win through the air. …

McCarthy did miss a couple of throws, but he has already shown his upside in the vertical passing game — he has thrown fewer than 25 passes this year but already has multiple big-time throws. Overall, McCarthy has earned a 90.5 PFF grade in his limited snaps this season.

On the other, "did miss a couple of throws" seems to undersell McCarthy's wobbliness so far. He hasn't felt more accurate overall than McNamara; he just uncorks an eyepopping throw here and there that obscures the other stuff. Also this felt like a reason he's on the bench:

pic.twitter.com/K5uK4q1rx8

— Due# (@JDue51) October 24, 2021

While cool in the moment—before it got called back for a blindside block—that is bonafide High School Crappe that will get you wrecked if you do it too much. There were a couple games early in the Devin Gardner era with similar escapes, and we were very hyped about them. Then Gardner turned in one of the worst plays in Michigan history* against Notre Dame. That's not going to fly. In a telling post-game moment, McNamara was asked about the above "wow" play and flatly said it was dangerous. This is accurate and not fun at all.

Back to the first hand: the picture that above was McNamara throwing an open post way long when his receiver had inside position and the safety had sucked up on a dig. McNamara threw into double coverage to Sainristil when his other option on a two-man-route was open. He put a throw to an open Schoonmaker down the slot in the wrong spot, etc. Thus the PFF grade. Meanwhile McCarthy appears to bring better-than-functional ability as a runner. The thought of combining the extant ground game with a mobile quarterback is really appealing.

I understand that this switch isn't happening until circumstances are dire, and that there are likely good reasons that it hasn't happened already. I also understand people who want to damn the torpedoes and see what Michigan's got. Likely this is moot. All of this is entering Approaching The Lucy Football territory, which is inadvisable since OSU has the top offense in the country by 4.5 points per game according to SP+.

It's possible that "could beat Ohio State" isn't actually the best metric to go on since approximately zero plus 50 percent is still approximately zero. People have differing risk tolerances. Football coaches do not, and that's another way things are moot. It'll be McNamara until it can't be McNamara anymore.

*[Standalone category. IE: how bad was this play in a vacuum, without game context.]

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

[Fuller]

you're the man now, dog

#1(t) Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum. This was not planned but seven games into the season these guys are tied in the points standings here. Each turned in spectacular plays in their milieu: Haskins stayed upright in a rugby scrum that turned a four yard run into a 19 yard one while Corum repeatedly WOOPed guys in the hole and then WOOPed the safety coming down trying to put the fire out. Five points each, they're made up and don't matter.

#2 Aidan Hutchinson. This section threatens to become fairly boring. It's going to be one or two running backs and Hutchinson in some order, with game heroes sprinkled in. But, I mean… what can you do? Hutchinson sent the right tackle out of the game with a broken soul. He also got half a sack, further proving that numbers cannot encompass his play.

#3 DJ Turner. Hey, here's someone new. Turner got a thumping TFL early, made a spectacular interception late, and in-between was the target of the worst penalty call in a Michigan-Northwestern game since Karan Higdon got called for holding.

Honorable mention: Erick All was a reliable underneath option and erased some dudes on the edge. The OL kept the QBs clean with one notable exception and consistently delivered guys downfield, except when NW overplayed and it still didn't matter. Josh Ross delivered a number of sticks to NW RBs, nearly had an INT, and could have had a sack but for some holding.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

28: Aidan Hutchinson (HM WMU, #2 Wash, #1 Rutgers, #1 Wisc, HM Neb, #2 NW)
18: The OL (#1 Wash, #1 NIU, HM Neb, HM NW)
17: Hassan Haskins (HM WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU, #2 Neb, T1 NW), Blake Corum (#2 WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU, HM Neb, T1 NW)
8: Ronnie Bell (#1 WMU), Brad Hawkins (#1 Neb)
7: Dax Hill (#3 WMU, HM NIU, HM Rutgers, HM Wisc, HM Neb)
6: Nikhai Hill-Green(HM NIU, #2 Rutgers)
5: David Ojabo (#2 Wisc), Brad Robbins (HM Wash, #3 Rutgers, HM Wisc), Jake Moody (HM Wash, HM Wisc, #3 Neb), Josh Ross (HM Wash, HM NIU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb, HM NW)
4: AJ Henning (HM WMU, #3 NIU)
3: Donovan Edwards(T2 NIU), Roman Wilson (#3 Wisc), DJ Turner (#3 NW)
2: Cornelius Johnson(HM NIU, HM Wisc),
1: Andrew Vastardis (HM WMU),Mike Sainristil (HM WMU),  Mazi Smith (HM Wash), Gemon Green(HM NIU), Chris Hinton (HM Rutgers), Erick All (HM NW)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Difficult selection since Michigan didn't have a scrimmage play longer than 24 yards, but for my money it's the Corum third down run right before Michigan broke up M00N 2, because just look at this:

Blake Corum jukin fools.

My goodness. pic.twitter.com/EUoo12OhJR

— Due# (@JDue51) October 24, 2021

That turned a dicey redzone proposition into a touchdown, as Michigan just went hurry-up and dove in with Corum right after the above.

Honorable mention: Rugby scrum run, Hutchinson dump truck sack, the other Corum run where he WOOPed two guys, James Ross breaking up a third consecutive third down screen.

​MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Northwestern gets a 75-yard touchdown that sets Twitter on fire for halftime.

Honorable mention: Michigan's drive after the 75-yard TD ends in a fumble on some cute perimeter stuff. McNamara misses various deep shots. Egregious PI call on Turner is egregious.

[After THE JUMP: 1 and 3]

THIS ARTICLE HAS A SPONSOR: If you haven’t yet met the guy on the right, that’s Nick Hopwood, our MGoFinancial Planner from Peak Wealth Management. Since I made MGoBlog my career I’ve acquired a spouse, a house, and two kids, and a ton of questions about our financial future.

So I talk to Nick. In turn, Nick—who’s been reading this site since nearly the beginning—has a lot of questions about Michigan. So the deal is we go to him for financial strategies, and he gets to ask us Michigan questions. These we’ll answer in whatever format works: This Week’s Obsession, What Is, Neck Sharpies, Basketbullets, whatever. Anytime it’s a Nick question, we’ll let you know. Anytime you’ve got a financial question, let Nick know. And while you’re at it, if you also have Michigan question you’d like to be given the full MGoBlog treatment, well, Nick’s buying!

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Nick’s First Question:

Does Michigan have a new quarterback?

[Patrick Barron]

BiSB: This is a bit of an Allegory of the Cave situation. We only see a small fraction of the available evidence, and we see it with only a fractional understanding of what should be happening. The coaches have much more information about both of these guys, and they clearly thought - right up until the moment he was origami'd by that Purdue defender - was that Speight was better. So I don't think I'm even qualified to guess in this situation, though that has never stopped me in the past.

My blind-ass prediction is that he gets the start against MSU, and his performance in the first game or two determines what happens when Speight is 100%. Two things I will mention in favor of the premise of the dawning of the O'Korn Era. The first relates to a name that hasn't been mentioned much recently: Colin Kaepernick. Alex Smith missed a start because of a concussion, and he never got his job back. The second point, which is related to the first one, is that O'Korn has the kind of mobility that Harbaugh has traditionally enjoyed with his quarterbacks. If he can extend that mobility to include mobility in the pocket the way he flashed against Purdue, I think he has a good shot to keep the job.

[Hit THE JUMP to see what we see]