preview 2014

Hello. You have made it to the end. This year's edition checks in at 43,424 words.

THE STORY

Memories Of Butter. Let's punch a cow until it gives us butter, because it's hard to remember the right way to do it.

OFFENSE

Quarterback. Protect this man for great profit.

Running back. Emerge from the swamp and claim your birthright.

Wide Receiver. I will not compare Devin Funchess to Megatron… okay maybe just a little.

Tight End And Friends. Waiting for Budot.

Offensive Line. The catch.

5Q5A, Offense. The madness of last year and leaving it behind.

DEFENSE

Defensive End. Secret Agent Clark is the key to the whole thing.

Defensive Tackle. We have the meat. We have the ogre. Unleash the meatogre.

Linebacker. Four starters for two and a half spots. I like 'em both.

Cornerback. In ur face jammin ur doodz

Safety. In this solitary case, Nickelback does not suck.

5Q5A, Defense. Making the case that this is the year to kick ass.

MISCELLANEOUS

Special Teams. Hagerup leg cannon returns.

Podcast 6.0. We may still be recording this, it's that long.

Heuristics and Stupid Prediction. I say 9-3.

THE HORROR II

Previewed by Ace.

ELSEWHERE

MGoVideo on the Salvadorean marching band that saved the 1998 Rose Bowl.

One of my favorite annual pieces is always Orson's season kickoff post. He outdid himself this year. I had the fortune to read it in my feed reader, which meant the GIFs embedded in the post just ran; on SBN their normally very wise GIF-handling software only runs them when you mouseover the image. This is unfortunate, as the gifs give the piece a wonderfully haunted air.

I wasn't really prepared for the last one.

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Oof.

I know I've been pissed off you guys about the increasingly aggressive moneychangers in the temple, but goddamn that is heartstopping. I want to go there again. I want to see the mountains in the background as the sun sets in the third quarter and feel that awe and privilege that this place exists and I have a reason to be here.

And now I feel like there is still something sacred out there, and that is why we all gravitated to this thing in the first place. The bowl goes up and up and it is just impossibly full of people. The thing in front of us is happening right now and I will remember this as glory or death until I've forgotten my own name. The thing is still in there. You just have to look a little harder these days. Rummage around. You'll find it.

Go Blue.

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[Eric Upchurch]

Previously: Podcast 6.0. The Story. Quarterback. Running back. Wide Receiver. Tight End And Friends. Offensive Line. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. Five Questions and Five Answers, Offense. 5Q5A, Defense.

Heuristicland

Turnover Margin

NotreDame-Rees-fumble-vs.-Michigan[1]

The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.

Year Margin Int + Fumb + Sacks + Int - Fumb - Sacks -
2007 0.15 (41st) 14 15 2.46(33rd) 14 13 2.17 (67th)
2008 -.83 (104th) 9 11 2.42(33rd) 12 18 1.83 (57th)
2009 -1.00 (115th) 11 5 1.83(68th) 15 13 2.33 (83rd)
2010 -0.77(109th) 12 7 1.38(98th) 15 14 0.85(10th)
2011 +0.54 (25th) 9 20 2.31 (29th) 16 6 1.38 (33rd)
2012 -0.69 (99th) 7 11 1.69 (69th) 19 8 1.38 (28th)
2013 +0.38(33rd) 17 9 1.9 (64th) 13 8 2.77 (109th)

Michigan did very well in this category considering that sacks allowed number. Pressure equals turnovers, and Michigan suffered all of the pressure last year. Their INT rate dropped significantly despite that, though a big part of that was five picks on 22 attempts by Russell Bellomy and Vincent Smith that did not repeat.

Michigan's interceptions were largely built on the craft and ability of their corners, who return and are being pushed hard from behind. Pass rush should improve with a season of a healthy Jake Ryan and both defensive ends coming back; Michigan gets its QB back for his senior year; the line… welp. The line.

If Michigan can pass protect reasonably well they should expect to be on the positive side of this ledger, perhaps significantly. If they can't…

Position Switch Starters

Jibreel Black Ohio State v Michigan 8THB4vo8SwAl[1]

Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. When Notre Dame moved Travis Thomas, a useful backup at tailback, to linebacker and then declared him a starter, there was no way that could end well. Wisconsin's flip of LB Travis Beckum to tight end was less ominous because Wisconsin had a solid linebacking corps and Beckum hadn't established himself on that side of the ball. Michigan flipping Prescott Burgess from SLB to WLB or PSU moving Dan Connor inside don't register here: we're talking major moves that indicate a serious lack somewhere.

The dossier:

Things that already happened like Funchess to WR, Brennen Beyer to DE, Braden to tackle, Magnuson to guard. Fret level: these already happened.

Various small moves associated with the change to an over defense. Fret level: minor. Michigan played a lot of over fronts last year and Brennen Beyer will be more comfortable in that front; the minor differences between WLB in an under and SAM in an over shouldn't be a problem for James Ross.

SAM Jake Ryan moves to MLB because over front. Fret level: moderate. It is a big change for a guy who was a terrific player at a spot Michigan no longer really has, and I worry it'll blunt his effectiveness.

SDE Keith Heitzman moves to TE because need blocking. Fret level: moderate. It makes sense because Michigan needs blocking desperately at TE and Heitzman was surplus to requirements at DE. I am just fretting because this reminds me about the TE blocking.

MLB Desmond Morgan to both ILB spots because Joe Bolden. Fret level: zero.

And that's it. Very stable. Shortest this section has been in a long, long time.

An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt

Worst Case Barring Extreme Injury Scenarios

The offensive line is a pile of doom that takes the offense down with it as Michigan experiences a near-replay of last year: Gardner does stuff to win games by himself sometimes, there is a star receiver, real defenses turn Michigan's rushing offense off. The defense is still better than last year, deeper and less prone to collapse against… uh, the best rushing offense in the country. Michigan gets swept in their three road rivalry games, drops the Penn State game at home, and loses another game somewhere on the schedule to finish 7-5.

Best Case

The offensive line holds up okay, giving Michigan a functional rushing game that develops as the season goes along. One of the backs stepping up helps this a lot; the receiving corps is great; Gardner still gets put in too many long-yardage scenarios for the offense to be great.

The defense is lights out. Michigan beats up a depleted Notre Dame team in game two, sweeps the home schedule, beats a freshman JT Barrett in Columbus, and still loses to MSU to finish 11-1.

Final Verdict

This will be a significant step forward for both units. That will not get the offense to anything better than tolerable except for two games in which Gardner and Funchess go nuts. The defense should be very good… at worst. This is put up or shut up time for those guys.

With special teams looking fine to good, the main issue is the schedule. It's tough to lose five games with it and tough to win ten. It is a lot easier now that Braxton Miller doesn't lurk at the end of the year, Northwestern is losing critical players weekly, and there is a possibility that Notre Dame will be down a number of players from an already wonky-looking defense, but it feels like there are a couple games in there that the offense will clunk away.

OOC
8/30 Horror II Must win
9/6 @ Notre Dame Tossup
9/14 Miami(NTM) Must win
9/20 Utah Lean to win
Conference
9/27 Minnesota Must win
10/4 @ Rutgers Must win
10/11 Penn State Lean to win
10/25 @ MSU Probable loss
11/1 Indiana Lean to win
11/8 @ Northwestern Lean to win
11/22 Maryland Must win
11/30 @ Ohio State Lean to loss
Absent:

Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa, Nebraska

I've got 9-3. Before the Miller injury I would have said 8-4 was more likely than 10-2, but now… I think 9-3.

Previously: Podcast 6.0. The Story. Quarterback. Running back. Wide Receiver. Tight End And Friends. Offensive Line. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. Five Questions and Five Answers, Offense.

1. CAN WE BE AGGRESSIVE MAN I JUST HAD EIGHT RED BULLS AND I'M FEELING RATHER AGGRESSIVE

I think so! I mean, if they're not radically changing their approach to defense they're doing the best job ever of faking it. They have been in the grill of receivers at the spring scrimmage, at both fall scrimmages, in the practices our insider got to check out, and at the coaching clinic. Either they've wasted a lot of time or the passivity we saw last year is out the window.

Jourdan Lewis:

“We have a new scheme and a lot of in your face coverage … With this new style of play, let’s ball and see what we got. …

“Last year we were a little bit conservative," he said. "We have talent... let’s use it. You put your best against our best and let’s ride out -- lets go get it. That is the mindset that our coaches have instilled in us for this season. Our practices are more intense -- we go hard, we go faster, and our coaches are really pushing us more. It is not just for the starters but for the backups as well -- everyone is getting pushed and that is what we like about it."

This is not a situation where this is meaningless blather from a new defensive coordinator before he knows what he's got. Mattison knows his personnel and this is what he thinks they'll be best at. It's happening.

The upshot: a lot of man coverage, more man blitzes, many fewer cushions, and a lot of pressure both ways. This is in part a reaction to Michigan State's success with an aggressive, handsy secondary, and it will draw flags. Mattison:

We want to be so physical that it is going to happen… you’re going to get a penalty.  That’s going to happen. As I mentioned, I think Coach Nussmeier… I think they might have thrown the ball 200 and some snaps this spring.  We have officials every practice.  I think in the spring we had a total of 20 interference penalties. …

An official calls (interference how many times?)  Is he is going to call seven, eight, or nine times?  It never happens.  We would never let you do that.  So why not be aggressive?  The only reason you wouldn’t is if you’re worried about well, the coach may get mad at me if I get a penalty.  You’re not going to be disappointed with the young man unless he did a stupid thing when he didn’t need to do it.

Michigan took some silly ones in both the spring and fall scrimmages, something that has been expressly tolerated so far. When the live bullets start flying that may not be so easy to let fly—some of the flags were completely unnecessary.

So it will be a work in progress. It is still a terribly exciting idea. We're coming at you.

[After THE JUMP: is this it? Is this the leap?]