position switches
Previously: Podcast 14.0A, 14.0B, 14.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Offensive Tackle. Interior OL. Defensive Interior. Edge. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A Offense. 5Q5A Defense.
Heuristicland
Turnover Margin
The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.
| Year | Margin | Int + | Fumb + | Sacks + | Int - | Fumb - | Sacks - |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 0.15 (41st) | 14 | 15 | 2.46(33rd) | 14 | 13 | 2.17 (67th) |
| 2008 | -.83 (104th) | 9 | 11 | 2.42(33rd) | 12 | 18 | 1.83 (57th) |
| 2009 | -1.00 (115th) | 11 | 5 | 1.83(68th) | 15 | 13 | 2.33 (83rd) |
| 2010 | -0.77(109th) | 12 | 7 | 1.38(98th) | 15 | 14 | 0.85(10th) |
| 2011 | +0.54 (25th) | 9 | 20 | 2.31 (29th) | 16 | 6 | 1.38 (33rd) |
| 2012 | -0.69 (99th) | 7 | 11 | 1.69 (69th) | 19 | 8 | 1.38 (28th) |
| 2013 | +0.38(33rd) | 17 | 9 | 1.9 (64th) | 13 | 8 | 2.77 (109th) |
| 2014 | -1.33 (124th) | 5 | 5 | 2.4 (49th) | 18 | 8 | 2.2 (63rd) |
| 2015 | -0.31 (92nd) | 10 | 2 | 2.5 (32nd) | 10 | 6 | 1.4 (28th) |
| 2016 | +0.54 (24th) | 13 | 6 | 3.54(5th) | 7 | 5 | 1.69 (39th) |
| 2017 | -0.31 (90th) | 10 | 7 | 3.23(8th) | 10 | 11 | 2.77 (111th) |
| 2018 | +0.38 (35th) | 11 | 6 | 10.5% (3rd) | 9 | 3 | 5.4% (43rd) |
| 2019 | +0 | 9 | 11 | 9.0% (16th) | 9 | 11 | 6.1% (61st) |
| 2020 | +0.38 (35th) | 11 | 6 | 10.5% (3rd) | 9 | 3 | 5.4% (43rd) |
| 2021 | +0.14 (56th) | 8 | 8 | 6.8% (62nd) | 5 | 9 | 3.3% (6th) |
Despite having extremely good turnover avoidance Michigan was almost dead even a year ago. The QBs and most of the OL return so sack avoidance should still stay high. The pressure number for Michigan is distorted by the inevitability of Hutchinson—most teams did a lot of dinking. I mostly include this in case Michigan is extraordinarily lucky or unlucky and can expect some regression. This doesn't look like much of anything, projection-wise.
This has got to be our last one right? Here’s the offense, but I have some late-breaking bits to add. Some of that was from Steve Lorenz and Brice Marich on their recent podcast. The rest was from Harbaugh, either speaking to the Detroit Athletic Club, or when sharing the same information on Jansen’s pod that only us bits reporters listen to, and you don’t have to because one of those reporters is tireless transcriber Isaiah Hole of WolverinesWire. I left 90% of it at the link because you should be reading him.
- QB: Via the DAC, Harbaugh seems legit excited for Cade. Villari’s playing some special teams. Harbaugh mentioned a special Run QB package for him.
- RB: Corum and Haskins are co-starters, expect some Edwards packages. (via both Pod, DAC)
- WR: Roman Wilson was banged up this spring, via the 24/7 podcast.
- TE: Just gonna quote the DAC guy: “Erick All has really elevated himself. He’s a great catcher. Specifically said that he would be disappointed if he didn’t get 70-75 targets this year. Also mentioned he could really block.”
- OL: This is all from the pod: Zinter, Hayes, and Stueber have locked in OL jobs. Barnhart, Keegan, Filiaga, Vastardis, Rumler, and Trente Jones are the others in the mix, and Crippen got himself on the two-deep then Atteberry asserted himself. Lorenz said it felt like to him that Zinter’s heading towards starting there, and that Keegan is probably the leader at left guard. He too heard Willie Allen leaving was about getting passed by Trente Jones($), something I was guessing at earlier. Harbaugh admitted they have a scoring system for the OL and the versatility means they think they’ll end up going with the five highest scores.
- In general: A lot of players missed time for contact tracing, some quite a lot of it. Nothing to be done.
The most interesting bit is Andrew Vastardis isn’t among the locks (and presumably not one of the top five scores). I agree with Lorenz: that can only mean they really want Zinter to pick up center. Gun to my head, the starters against WMU are (L->R) Hayes-Keegan-Zinter-Stueber-Barnhart, with Jones a darkhorse to pass Barnhart.
The parts about All are nice but probably just mean he’s still the starter. The stuff about Villari garners attention because he’s a quarterback, but it’s not hard to read this one: 1) Harbaugh likes how Villari practices and wants to reward it, and 2) They had three scholarship QBs this spring, two teams in the spring game, and most of the family members who saw practice couldn’t tell you much more of what they saw than who was under center.
Let’s do the D.
[After THE JUMP]
They put out a spring roster. It only has a few things of interest in it but we respect tradition so here’s your jerk:
Here’s my comprehensive roster file, and our updated Depth Chart by Class.
POSITION CHANGES
Jack Stewart OL—>“DL”. It looks like one of the bench guards is going to take a shot at the much shallower depth chart at defensive tackle. Stewart was kind of a lost man at guard, where Zak Zinter played as a true freshman and several more touted guys in Stewart’s class like Barnhart, Keegan, Jones, and Rumler have gotten a lot more mention.
David Ojabo “DL”—>”LB”. This is not much of a change. Ojabo arrived late in practice last year and when he was technically a SAM and in fact just an edge rusher. The move to more of a base multiple has a job for that called linebacker.
[Hit THE JUMP for weight changes, early enrollees, departures, # changes, and other things that matter a great deal]
Someone create a Drake Johnson/Stephen Spanellis podcast next year please
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