panic and run around in circles

Well this sucks for the team that's been fretting about defensive tackles and natural interior pass rush since Mo Hurst was unleashed on the NFL.

pic.twitter.com/rgn2mjO6JS

— Michael DwumFour (@HON5H0) January 14, 2020

Dwumfour caused a medium panic when he was spotted at the Detroit Lions game instead of bowl practices a few weeks ago, until it was announced he didn't travel with the team for a medical issue. Those medical issues held back a breakout that was always just around the corner, never more so than the 2018 offseason when more "Mo Hurst but big" hype was emanating from Schembechler Hall than even we could disbelieve. A potential breakout that season and this one were derailed by a nagging plantar fascia issue that apparently bothered him all 2018. Tweaking that held him out of the Peach Bowl, the entire 2019 offseason, and the beginning portion of this year. When Dwumfour returned for Big Ten play, he was decent against Iowa and still mistake-prone against Illinois. Late in the season Michigan went to more three-man lines or, when that wasn't an option, freshman Chris Hinton.

At his commitment in 2016 Dwumfour was unfairly considered a carrot for luring best bud Rashan Gary. In truth the defensive tackle depth chart after Hurst's graduation was reason enough to flip Dwumfour from a Penn State verbal. Like Hurst, Dwumfour was a quick first step they hoped to grow into a penetrating nightmare. We got glimpses, but the injuries kept their DT a development project even through this, his redshirt junior season. The hope for next year, as it has been every year since 2018, was that Dwumfour could remain healthy long enough to pick up the finer points of run defense. The first step was as advertised, and there were moments here and there that certainly made you wonder what he might look like as a senior:

Michigan is out that opportunity, and running short on chances to rebuild a DT depth chart like the Glasgow/Hurst/Henry/Godin group that Don Brown enjoyed his first two seasons here. While the Wolverines bring back Kemp and Hinton, that's an undersized warrior and a true sophomore for a position where talent, experience, and depth all directly correlate to team production (see: LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, and the two times Harbaugh teams fared well against Urban Meyer). Well-regarded freshman Mazi Smith, who redshirted, is the only other guy on the roster next year expected to able to take on a larger role. Rising junior Donovan Jeter disappeared from the rotation after a miserable debut, Phil Paea never even cracked that rotation, and if the 2020 class produces any DTs they're all a good few years of training table away. With Kemp and Dwumfour injured, Michigan started walk-on/converted OL Jess Speight in the Citrus Bowl. Various developmental SDE types down the roster like Julius Welschof and Michael Morris might also have grown into DTs since last we checked in.

If doing so didn't already precipitate Dwumfour's decision, Michigan is almost certain to hit the grad transfer market. Grad transfer Michael Williams, a 6'2"/290 nose type who's fleeing Stanford after a season of six TFLs and a sack, had Rice, Vandy, and SMU appear to be the competition. Teammate Jovan Swann (7 TFLs) is also in the portal. Via 24/7's Brice Marich, Michigan is pursuing those two as well as Uche type Quincy Roche from Temple.

[DATELINE: THE BURNED OUT HULK THAT USED TO BE ANN ARBOR.]

CONNECTION SHAKY. MASS PANIC AND RIOTS. WHOLE FOODS RAIDED. SINGLE ENDIVE LEAF ALL THAT REMAINS. ATHLETIC DEPARTMENT BUNKERED IN WHAT IS LITERALLY FORT SCHEMBECHLER NOW. TAKING POTSHOTS AT PASSERS-BY THEY CLAIM ARE ZOMBIES. SOME ARE. SOME.

SEND DVDS OF 1997 SEASON. ALSO WATER.

IF… IF I DON'T MAKE IT TELL CHARLES WOODSON I LOVE HIM.

I kid you not, GIS for "looting" and this guy in an off-brand Michigan jersey shows up

Brian,

Let me know when I should start panicking. I am ready at your command.

Peter

Okay this is where I'm at. I've got a go bag ready. Passports, about 10k in cash, various fake mustaches and sunglasses. I'm up do date on all my vaccines. Are you up to date on your vaccines? I can be in Laos in 15 hours, never to be seen again. Rumors of the white tiger of the jungle will flourish. I will become known only in song and legend.

BUT: note that I am not already in Laos. I am sticking around to see what this season has in store, because weird things happen against Notre Dame and—and bear with me here—this game actually felt much less bad than some hammerings from last year. There are some obvious problems at cornerback and Gardner has to play better but when things went wrong it was mostly one thing going wrong, not eight. So it might get fixed. There is no reason to demand a coaching change right now. Let the season play out and see what happens. If Michigan does catch fire in the crappy Big Ten this game will be a footnote.

Meanwhile, there's no reason to assume a coaching change is coming unless you're literally 75% of my inbox…

A true Michigan Man keeps his promises about the Austro-Hungarian Empire circa July 1914.

Brian,

You may recall that I said I would never write to you about Michigan football again after the BW3 Bowl and my comparison of Michigan football to the Austro-Hungarian Empire circa July 1914.  Since the last part is still true, I won’t make this long.  But your entry today about coaching prospects caused me to think about my second school (the Syracuse Orange).

Here are a LOT of assumptions, but (a) assuming the tire fire rages, (b) Hoke is fired, (c) none of the few big names worth watching (i.e., Miles, the Harbros) is/are available, and (d) Syracuse goes 8-5 or better again this year with a mid to late-December victory, what about a guy like Scott Schafer?  He’s in his mid-40s.  He runs an attacking style defense.  He’s from the Midwest.  He favors an up-tempo offense.  He has to coach against Clemson, FSU, Louisville (and ND this year).  He picked up the pieces after Doug Marrone ran off to the NFL with half of his coaching staff last year.

Might he be someone to watch?  I know the experience as Rich Rod’s DC did not work out.  But given his success running the defense at SU (particularly following GROB), that seems like it was more an issue of Rodriguez trying to make him run a defense he didn’t want to run.  He left with grace and took the blame that may not have been 100% his.

Just a thought – I’m grasping at straws . . .

Dan G

UM ‘85

Syr. Law ‘88

I don't think Shafer has a track record to get excited about. He did improve the Syracuse defense upon his arrival but he hit a ceiling pretty quick. FEI rankings for his defenses at 'Cuse:

2009: 70th
2010: 38th
2011: 39th
2012: 39th
2013: 65th (as head coach)

In FEI there are a lot of schedule adjustments so 39th isn't nearly as good as it is in straight yardage rankings. Meanwhile he'd have two years of head coaching experience, the first a 7-6 season, and the second an 8-5 one. I liked Shafer and know for a fact he got a raw deal from Rodriguez's defensive assistants, and then Rodriguez himself. But even if you don't hold that against him his resume is thin.

He is a guy to track, since he is a poachable head coach not in the MAC. That he's worth tracking is a good summation of the available talent this year.

[After The JUMP: I REGRET TO INFORM YOU YOU WILL NOT STOP DRINKING.]

How last week shoud have ended.

So: do we panic? Where is the 2014 season now on a scale of imminent raptor* attack?

1. "What species is this?" "It's a velocirapator." "You bred raptors?"
2. "They were testing the fences for weaknesses, systematically. They remember."
3. This jello is shaking. Hey is that a shadow?
4. Oh it's just Samuel L. Jackson's arm. Wait, why isn't it attached...
5. "Clever girl"

Ace:

I really don't want to overreact to one game, especially a Michigan-Notre Dame game, as I think we've all learned that series is about as predictive as a dart-throwing monkey. Plus, this game had an especially bizarre box score—Michigan outgained Notre Dame! In a 31-0 loss! The run defense kicked ass! So I'm defaulting to a three because, yes, there are serious concerns—not finding a way to score on a defense that had multiple coverage busts against Rice, for instance—but the schedule remains manageable and it's not like the Big Ten as a whole impressed last weekend.

The big concern, to me, is that this team couldn't do two of the things they spent much of the offseason talking about: breaking the huddle on offense with enough time to properly survey the defense and successfully playing press man in the secondary. The good news: these are things than can improve, especially for a still-young team that's learning new schemes on both sides of the ball. The bad news: man, did I expect both areas to look a lot better than that.

Plus, there were those positive signs. The offensive line looks... not terrible? Let's go with not terrible. The defensive front seven appears to be quite good. If Matt Wile can keep his plant foot planted and Michigan jumps on that muffed punt—HEY A SPREAD PUNT WOULD BE NICE I'M SURE YOU HAVEN'T READ THIS HERE BEFORE—that game could play out very differently. We're not staring a velociraptor in the eyes. Not yet, at least.

This could be a one-game anomaly, because Michigan/ND, above all else, is freakin' weird. This could be a sign of very bad things to come if the secondary doesn't shore the man coverage and Gardner continues to look that skittish. This is me throwing up my hands and saying I don't know why the jello is shaking so much.

[after the jump, must go faster]