I thought that myself when I read that article that talked about a Data Scientist(tm)
Previously: S Jeremy Clark, S Allen Gant, S Jarrod Wilson, CB Terry Richardson, LB James Ross, LB Royce Jenkins-Stone, LB Kaleb Ringer, LB Joe Bolden, DE Chris Wormley, DE Tom Strobel, DE Mario Ojemudia, DT Matt Godin, and DT Willie Henry.
|Kansas City, MO – 6'3", 336|
|Scout||4*, #7 DT, #65 overall|
|Rivals||5*, #3 DT, #2 MO, #14 overall|
|ESPN||4*, #16 DT, #5 MO|
|24/7||4*, #6 DT, #2 MO, #51 overall|
|Other Suitors||Alabama, Florida, Ohio State, Oklahoma, USC, MSU|
|YMRMFSPA||Gabe Watson, but fast!|
|Previously On MGoBlog||Hello post from Tim. I talk about how Pipkins might see Michigan move to a hybrid defense where he two-gaps while others one-gap.|
|Notes||Originally from Saginaw.|
Army Bowl stuffs:
And the already-legendary Hoke impression:
Also there is an hour of stuff on hudl.
The only thing larger than Ondre Pipkins himself may be his personality. I mean, the Hoke impression. It's right above these words. Click it. Again, if necessary. There's that, and then there's Pipkins running his mouth about OSU commit Tommy Schutt…
"Tommy Schutt ate turf," Pipkins said. "He ate turf the whole time."
…OSU commit Kyle Dodson…
"I gave a little bit to what's his name, Dodson," Pipkins said. "He ran away from me. That's what they do. They run their mouth, and then when they meet up with the belly of the beast -- I call myself that because I am -- then they run away. When it comes to reality, they want to run away."
…and OSU itself:
"Are you talking about those people down south? I don't want to give them the time of day."
He also opened up an interview with Mike Farrell by eating an ice cream cone symbolizing Ohio State or something. Hopefully you've got your fill of Pipkins wackiness, because now that he's on campus he'll be kept as far away from microphones as Brady Hoke can manage.
The reason Pipkins gets to demonstrate that personality at place like the Army All-American game is that a person his size should not be able to move in the way that he does. One of many scouting reports emphasizing this, this one from Allen Trieu:
"Pipkins is a big-bodied space-eater that can command double teams, but he's quick enough and light enough on his feet to penetrate and disrupt," said Trieu. "Once he learns to really use his hands and consistently play under people, he's going to be an even tougher guy to move and block. Right now he's rated the No. 16 defensive tackle nationally, but he does have a chance to move up higher. Big kids like him that are 320 pounds and move the way he does are very rare."
A little later in that Sam Webb article, Pipkins says Michigan State was recruiting him for three tech. Yeah.
Appropriately, then, Pipkins's main highlights in the Army game were a pair of sideline-to-sideline track-and-tackles, one of them on five star jitterbug WR Stephon Diggs. While those were aided by a goofy defensive scheme that saw Pipkins looping outside the tackle on almost every play, his ability to trundle at speed made him probably the breakout star in San Antonio. Everyone raved.
Incoming maize boxes. A practice report from Rivals($):
…continually drew praise from the coaching staff and was able to split double teams in line drills. He has a great combination of strength and speed and proved very tough to block.
Guy was compared to a couple of guys who went top ten in the NFL Draft after the first day:
1. ONDRE PIPKINS, DT, KANSAS CITY (MO.) PARK HILL
Pipkins is a monster physically - he already looks like B.J. Raji or Vince Wilfork. He is one of the most physically imposing defensive tackles we have seen in awhile. At the point of attack, he is impossible to get on his heels and he penetrates quickly and athletically for a big man. Pipkins is going to be a load for the East offensive line to handle; he was simply dominating a good group of West lineman in the early session of practice.
Further Rivals reports note that he "moves much, much better than a player his size should," noted his "nonstop motor," and named him the #1 riser from the game. They followed that up by putting him in the top 20.
Pipkins also stood out to a couple of 247 analysts…
…Pipkins had the best case for top performer honors. He is a wide-bodied, stout defensive lineman that is much more than a bull-rusher or space eater. When engaged with offensive linemen, Pipkins usually dictates the movement. He also beats interior linemen with his quickness on plenty of occasions.
… Pipkins was as disruptive as anybody in his ability to get in the backfield and blowup blockers and diagnose plays. Physically he's a very stout defender and he uses that frame to take up a lot of space while still showing quickness that is really rare in interior guys. He is a tough kid to block.
“The Ondre Pipkins kid in the middle has really been impressive but all of those kids have really done a good job of reading blocks and picking up what we’re trying to do. He’s the one guy that I think has been the most impressive of the group.”
That's unprompted, and suggests that Pipkins is The Ondre Pipkins. As in, there are no more Ondre Pipkinses around here. There is The Ondre. There are no other Ondres.
After all that, 247 and the rest of the services slid him up significantly. ESPN didn't bother because ESPN is a fire-and-forget service unless you go to the UA game; in situations where a kid surges on all the other sites I tend to ignore the static evaluation provided by the WWL. ESPN did bump him a bit; when he committed he was a generic three star to them.
There's a ton of additional stuff out there from the various camps Pipkins hit up before his senior year, all of it in the same vein as the stuff above:
- "power and quickness creates nearly unstoppable upfield momentum"
- "when he decided it was time to get upfield, no offensive lineman showed the ability to stop him."
- "…wide and powerful and he will demand multiple blockers and free up his linebackers behind him. On Saturday, Pipkins used that powerful frame and added good explosiveness, agility and power."
- "Ondre is strong and quick off the ball, and when he can latch onto an opponent and stay low, he can take care of some gaps for sure."
Ondre heard it himself:
Pipkins on what college coaches are telling him: "At 320 (pounds) you move. What I've been told is, 'I've never seen a kid who is 320 pounds move like you do.' I run a 5.1 (seconds) 40 (yard dash) and I bench 360 pounds. That's rare for a defensive tackle in his junior year. I'm very strong, very explosive and I have a lot of quickness and speed. It all ties into me being an athlete in the offseason and me working hard."
- You get the idea, and hope it will fling opposing guards backwards for four years.
So what's the catch? There must be a catch. Even the bluest of blue chips flame out regularly. I think you might find it between the lines of this high praise from an opposing coach:
"That kid has great explosion and punch off the ball. When he's tuned into the flow of the game, it's impressive the plays he makes. He'll chase players from gap to gap. He had a nice play on Evan - here's this 300-pounder chasing down a 160-pound running back, diving for him, getting him by the back of his jersey and throwing him to the ground.
"There are times where he chooses to go, go go and he's pretty destructive in the middle of the field. Almost unblockable, even with two or three kids. I can understand why everybody in the country is so enamored with him."
- I closed out one of my many many Ondre Pipkins tabs in a fit of "argh so much" that I wish I could locate again in which Pipkins's coach talks about how he had some frustrating times with the kid trying to get him to show effort.
- That's the best I've got, and it goes hand in hand with the fact he's a massive defensive tackle. It is, however, something that I think all Michigan fans were frustrated with during the above-mentioned Watson's career. He was really good, but when he decided to be great, he was great. And that wasn't often enough to be GREAT.
If Pipkins ends up in the same fan memory bin as Watson, the ability to give effort on every play will be the main reason… and he'll probably still be a multiple-time All Conference performer.
Tremendous (sort of interrupting): Michigan State is pretty close to home too though, right?
Ondre: I grew up a Michigan fan. They are not Michigan over there.
Pipkins features in the closest thing to Catlab that is not Catlab. Preps KC documents his nomadic high school life. Signing Day article from the KC Star. Long freebie sample of GBW magazine features Pipkins. AnnArbor.com profile notes the weirdest thing he heard during his recruitment:
"I like big, angry black guys on my D-line."
Two out of three, I guess?
Why Gabe Watson? Michigan nose tackles have not often been the run-clobbering battleship sorts who hover around 330 pounds and can play effectively at that weight. Gabe Watson is the only guy in program history who has. Terrance Taylor was a shorter fireplug sort, Alan Branch a 6'5" penetrator, Mike Martin a slab of quick-twitch muscle. Guys before Watson were never that big, either. He stands alone as a Michigan comparable.
People remember Watson as a disappointment but if he was one it wasn't much of one after being named first-team All Big Ten twice and getting drafted in the fourth round. His specialty was taking one on one blocks and depositing them on their ass many yards upfield, and that's what Pipkins will do if successful.
If you want to add a dash of Alan Branch, okay, since it seems Pipkins is a little smaller and more athletic than Watson.
Guru Reliability: High. All Star appearance.
Variance: Low-plus. With guys the size of Pipkins there's always a chance weight becomes a persistent issue. If that isn't a problem it's hard to see him not being a very good starter.
Ceiling: As massive as Pipkins himself. Potential NFL first rounder.
General Excitement Level: Very high. Obvs.
Projection: Won't redshirt with very little behind Campbell and Pipkins seemingly the obvious choice to replace him next year. Probably starts off a little slow due to conditioning issues and general freshmanhood, starts coming on midway through the year, and does some stuff towards the end of his freshman season that get everyone revved up about year two.
From there he's likely a three-year starter somewhere between pretty dang good and All-American.
The 2012 Football Media Guide was released last night. Like all media guides it has lots of information reporters will Google/Bentley anyway if they ever need it. This one also comes with an extensive section on 100-yard rushers and 100-yard rushing duos in case, you know, anyone needs to write an article this year about two guys rushing for over 100 yards in a game or something. It also has a roster. A ROSTER!!! OMIGOD OMIGOD OMIGOD OMIGOD, OBSESSIVE ATTENTION TO ROSTER NUMBERS, GO!
Baquer Sayed not on it again. This same thing happened last year and then he turned up back on the team so this could be nothing. (UPDATE: Confirmed he has left the team.) Baquer was in the Spring Game and caught one of those passes listed as "unknown" in the box score. He was a 2010 preferred walk-on, one of those tall, loping-type receivers who look like they're hunched over until they extend to unworldly lengths. He turned down MAC offers to walk on here. Tim Sullivan interviewed him on MGo a few years ago. Yes, that Fordson.
Devin Gardner a junior, not RS soph. You shouldn't expect him to be since they won't say until he applies following the 2013 season, but I always look anyway.
WDEs the Biggest Gainers. Brennan Beyer is now 252 lbs., up 27 from the Spring roster, meaning he has gained the mass of the world's biggest lobster. Space fact: it now takes as much extra energy for Beyer to jump as it takes an astronaut in his space suit to jump from the surface of the moon. Frank Clark is up 32 lbs. for a listed 260. In other guys moving down the line, Jibreel Black is up to 276 (+16) and Roh is listed at 278 (+9).
Holy Ondre! Ondre Pipkins, at 337 pounds, is the biggest dude on the entire roster. For reference, Will Campbell arrived at 309, Richard Ash was 320, and freshman Gabe Watson was 358.* Other freshmen arriving much larger than advertised are Willie Henry (6'3-302, from 6'2-270), Ben Braden (6'6-319, from 285), Erik Magnuson (6'6-290 from 275), Amara Darboh (6'2-218 from 190), A.J. Williams (6'6-282 from 270), The Funchess (6'4-225 from 6'5-205), and James Ross (6'1-225 from 6'0-209). Only RJS arrived smaller than sites said (6'2-206 from 215).
* "That's all?" —everyone my age who ever played against Southfield
On to the fully digit-ed freshmen!
|12||Allen Gant||S||6'2||196||Nice compromise btw dad (14) and cousin (2)|
|13||Terry Richardson||CB||5'9||154||154 pounds = 11 stone, $239 U.S., "small"|
|15||James Ross||LB||6'1||225||Much closer to LB size than as a recruit (209)|
|19||Devin Funchess||TE||6'4||225||Much closer to TE size than as a recruit (205)|
|49||Kaleb Ringer||LB||6'1||230||Spring - up 11 lbs. since|
|52||Royce Jenkins-Stone||LB||6'2||206||Winner of "I'm Ray Lewis" sweepstakes among Mattison LB recruits. Guessing redshirt.|
|53||Mario Ojemudia||DE||6'2||223||Wore 53 in high school|
|56||Ondre Pipkins||DT||6'3||337||He asked for 56 - for Woodley|
|69||Willie Henry||DT||6'3||302||How did they miss a kid that size at a program like Glenville?|
|71||Ben Braden||OL||6'6||319||Is this OT depth is see? Size: yes. Technique: unlikely.|
|78||Erik Magnuson||OL||6'6||290||Same as with Braden.|
|82||Amara Darboh||WR||6'2||218||I was so sure he'd take 15|
|84||A.J. Williams||TE||6'6||282||Is it legal to make a guy that size an eligible receiver?|
You are welcome to see how wrong I was at guessing. Or you can burn that. You know what, burn that.
Not as many as in years previous.
|Name||Pos.||Was||Now||This is not the reason|
|Drew Dileo||WR||26||9||Step 1: Get assigned locker next to Gallon. Step 2: Steal cloaking device.|
|Devin Gardner||QB||7||12||Bought a Gutierrez jersey in '04 before he got his Henne one. Recently discovered it in back of the closet.|
|Paul Gyarmati||FB||99||31||Inaugural "Name Legends" jersey, will include patch honoring Herman Everhardus (1930-'33)|
Meet the Walk-Ons:
The new guys. Those listed were not on the spring roster.
|3||Bo Dever#||WR||6'2||189||FR||Lake Forest, Ill. (Lake Forest)|
|6||Brian Cleary#||QB||6'3||202||FR||Detroit, Mich. (Detroit Jesuit)|
|18||Devon Micou||WR||6'0||184||RS FR||Ann Arbor, Mich. (Huron)|
|31||Andrew Offerdahl||S||5'11||192||FR||Fort Lauderdale, Fl. (Cardinal Gibbons)|
|46||Chris Maye#||DB||5'11||178||FR||Union City, Mich. (Union City)|
|59||Mark Lawson#||LB||6'2||207||FR||Ada, Mich. (Forest Hills Eastern)|
|63||Ben Pliska||OL||6'3||267||FR||Kirkland, Wa. (Lake Washington)|
|79||Dan Gibbs#||OL||6'7||311||FR||Birmingham, Mich. (Seaholm)|
|91||Kenneth Allen#||P||6'3||205||FR||Fenton, Mich. (Fenton)|
|91||David Mitropoulos-Rundus||TE||6'2||242||RS FR||Ann Arbor, Mich. (Pioneer)|
|95||Anthony Capatina||K||5'9||181||RS SO||Novi, Mich. (Detroit Catholic Central)|
|96||Ryan Glasgow#||DL||6'4||285||FR||Aurora, Ill. (Marmion Academy)|
# = preferred walk-on. Interesting note: Glasgow is listed at DL, though the little chatter about him on the interwebs expected him to be an interior offensive lineman.
Counting Things on Scholarship
(note: Brink, Heininger and Kovacs counted as scholarship players)
31! Thirty-one scholarship players with junior (19) or senior (12) eligibility, ah ah ah! Last year was 18 juniors and 15 seniors; 2010 was 14 and 11. This year there are only 11 sophomores (since few redshirted in '10 and many did last season.
38! Thirty-eight players left from the '08-'10 classes, ah ah ah! This roster is already mostly Hoke's. Show? Show.
|Total on Scholarship||78||80||76||74|
7! Seven receivers on last year's August roster who are now gone. Odoms, Grady and Hemingway by graduation, Stonum by action, Stokes and Williamson by volition, Terrence Robinson by unrenewsion. AHHHH!
14! Fourteen scholarship players at defensive back, ah ah ah! As opposed to nine on the roster in 2009.
44! Forty-four of the guys pictured in the Media Guide with facial hair, ah ah ah! This has to be a new record since the '70s.
Team 133 Photo Day
THE THREE STAGES OF BEARDLINESS:
They are Demens, Allspach, and Mealer.
TEAM DREAD-FLOW 133!:
(EDIT: Almost forgot:
They are Wolverines with lions' manes sticking out of their helmets, soaring through the air in much the same way Odre Pipkins doesn't. They are: J.T. Floyd, Chris Eddins, Gibbons U PUT IT THRU THE UPRITES, Denard with something on his upper lip that shouldn't be there, Roh's left eyebrow, Roh's right eyebrow, Hopkins, the Jake (love the Jake), and Bolden. Here's some dudes trying to get into the club:
T-Gordon, Gallon, Jarrod Wilson, Dennis Norfleet, Justice Hayes, Seth Broekhuizen.
NO LONGER PART OF TEAM DREAD-FLOW:
I KNEW THERE WAS A REASON I CHOSE HIM AS MY TOTALLY UNREASONABLE NAME ON NOBODY'S LIPS TO GET ALL EXCITED ABOUT
Delonte Hollowell. Somebody get this man a bow-tie.
Ribs. Meyer and Hoke ate them.
also via Mike Rothstein. For whatever reason, pictures of football coaches eating == MONEY
Those dudes look like they know what they're doing in re: making ribs. That's from the Sound Mind, Sound Body camp, which Ace attended and will have a report on later. One of the main themes of the day was "I can't believe this is legal":
Because the Sound Mind, Sound Body event is a charitable camp, college coaches are able to attend and provide instruction to the campers -- something that's outlawed at most public camps throughout the country.
As a result, Borges spent most the of the day giving pointers to Shane Morris. If that's legal, expect one of two things to happen: it's quickly outlawed or similar camps multiply like weeds.
Meanwhile, this seems cute given Michigan's lockdown on state of Michigan prospects whose fathers didn't play at State:
Michigan, especially under Hoke, has developed a reputation of having recruiting success in Ohio over the years. Now, Meyer says, it’s his aim to return the favor.
“I know this area real well," said Meyer, who once coached at nearby Bowling Green State University. "As for Ohio State ... we have some very good players from this area.
“If we have not, we will."
Not ribs. Via Blake Countess, poor Pee Wee and his grim salad of raw-looking broccoli and stuff:
It will all be worth it when you're ragdolling Alabama OL in fall. (Please.)
KYLE MEINKE IS GRIM. The AnnArbor.com reporter got screencapped by the youtubes looking like he's about to heroically tackle a terrorist or Mark Dantonio:
Cue the crack Free Press investigatory teams. Michigan has again claimed that unspecified academic performance is good and stuff:
Michigan athletic director Dave Brandon said last week the Wolverines registered the best "academic performance" in their history under first-year coach Brady Hoke last year. He didn't cite specific numbers.
The last time this happened the Free Press hammered at Michigan with FOIA requests until they scuttled the claim. Here's guessing that doesn't happen this time around.
UMass reinforced. You probably already know that Mike Cox transferred home to UMass for his final year. They've also added former touted ND recruits Deion Walker and Hafis Williams, a wideout and a DT. They still shouldn't be a problem now that Michigan has one of those defensive coordinator things.
Longsnapper rabble rabble 'Bama what? If you're still slightly peeved that Michigan expended a precious scholarship slot on a longsnapper this might make you feel better:
According to BamaOnline, Saban did something at last week's special teams camp in Tuscaloosa that he's never done in his 17-year career -- offered a scholarship to a long snapper.
"I snapped really good during the camp and Coach Saban told me in his office that they were going to offer a long snapper within the next two days after a staff meeting," Mazza told BamaOnline. "The next day I called him and he told me he was going to offer me."
I'm confused about how these guys are suddenly valuable enough to warrant scholarship slots, but apparently they are.
[HT: Holdin' the Rope.]
How can you do the divide. This from Orson's introductory course on bad sports rhetoric is a truly amazing screenshot from the World Wide Leader in having no idea what that slash thing under the question mark is for:
Cram the data into your meme. The data doesn't fit? Yes it does.
NFL draft stuff. Michigan recruits feature in the United States Of Hockey's American top ten. Defenseman Jacob Trouba:
Michigan-commit Jacob Trouba is a bruising defenseman who showed what he can do with his big frame at the National Team Development Program. He also proved he can play above his head by his performance at the World Junior Championship. Some are considered Trouba relies on his physicality too much and that there might not be much offensive upside. However, for a physical defenseman, Trouba can skate well and has good agility. His hockey sense has vastly improved, even though he’s still prone to the bad decision now and again.
Sounds more like a Komisarek type than another Merrill-style puck mover.
Forward Boo Nieves:
…a 13-game stint in the USHL confirmed some of the concerns that Nieves struggles with the physical aspects of the game. The thing is, he has some filthy puck skills and a really nice 6-2, 185 frame. Nieves could have calmed concerns in a long USHL playoff run, but he had to return to Kent to finish his schooling so he could get into Michigan for next year. Still, those puck skills allude to some nice potential, but he’s still a likely mid- to late-second round choice.
Michigan's going to need scoring punch from him right away; hopefully he can deliver despite his issues in a short USHL stint.
In other hockey recruiting news, Michigan picked up a 2014 commit from Dexter Dancs, a BCHL kid from the same team that provided Michigan with Brendan Morrison, amongst others. Michigan used to make a habit of grabbing high-scoring forwards out of that league but hasn't taken a BCHL player in a while. College Hockey Prospective got a quote out of his coach that provides some insight into what kind of player Michigan's getting:
“Dexter Dancs is a big, young, raw power forward with an excellent skating stride and an equally as good set of hands and shot,” said Hengen. “Dexter will as easily take the puck hard to the net, set up a play or drop his gloves to stand up for a teammate. Dexter will be another one of many Michigan Wolverines that they will develop to have a chance of playing pro hockey.”
Don't get too excited if Dancs puts up video game numbers next fall, as the BCHL is a notoriously high-scoring league.
Irish secondaries are thin. After recruiting defections and plenty of graduation, Notre Dame's secondary is a major concern this fall. It's one that just got more concern-y after Austin Collinsworth's availability next fall has resolved itself:
Notre Dame junior safety Austin Collinsworth has undergone shoulder surgery and is expected to miss a significant portion of -- if not the entire -- 2012 football season, ND director of football sports information Brian Hardin confirmed Wednesday.
Collinsworth suffered a torn labrum in his left shoulder during ND’s wrap-up to spring practice, the Blue-Gold Game, on April 21. When the condition didn’t improve with rest, surgery was scheduled. Recovery time is projected to be four to six months.
Collinsworth was probably going to be the nickelback, possibly the starter if Jamoris Slaughter was forced to move to corner.
Etc.: MGoUser informs world that Michigan has acquired walk-on WR/TE Michael Jocz. Will Campbell takes the misdemeanor plea, obviously. Surprise: football recruit who commits without ever visiting is just using you as a placeholder. What everyone wants from a playoff.
All-Americans and presidents: the future of ALL our recruits.
Every year during Spring Practice, because I'm exactly that kind of geek, I start trying to predict what the jersey numbers will be of incoming freshmen. This probably started back when I was still buying annual versions of the EA Sports game that they're still labeling a year off, which meant my virtual freshmen needed to be in iconic jerseys while real freshmen were in prom suits/coed naked t-shirts/whatever they're wearing these days.
This is an exercise fraught with danger, and likely to be 80% to 90% incorrect given all of the variables like current players changing numbers, walk-ons getting shoved out of the way, numbers with special meaning, and the randomness of the universe, etc. What we have to go on are the traditions of the coaching staff (for example Rodriguez was much higher on repeating digits between units; Hoke seems more like Carr in limiting these), high school numbers, birthdays, actuary tables, and the general availability of digits.
Let's start with what's not available. I'm guessing it's unlikely that a freshman is going to receive a "Michigan Football Legend" number (so far that is just 21). I'm also giving walk-ons the benefit of the doubt if someone from another unit is already wearing their number. (Right: from SI's best college player for each number)
Numbers they can't have: 1 (Edwards scholarship goes to current players), 4 (Steve Wilson and Cam Gordon), 5 (Justice Hayes and Courtney Avery), 7 (Gardner and Hawthorne), 8 (Bellomy and J.T. Floyd), 11 (retired for Wisterts), 14 (Jack Kennedy and Josh Furman), 27 (Jon Keizer and Mike Jones), 38 (Thomas Rawls and Al Backey), 40 (Nate Allspach and Antonio Poole), 47 (retired), 48 (retired), 57 (Elliott Mealer and Frank Clark), 87 (retired), 98 (retired).
Special Teamers' numbers: You can't have two players with the same number on the field at the same time, so very rarely will you see a special teams starter's number shared with another player, else that player might not be able to play on special teams if needed. The exception here is quarterbacks (e.g. former KOS Troy Nienberg shared 10 with Clayton Richard in 2003 and '04). Special teamers who don't start don't count (e.g. Nienberg shared 6 with Victor Hobson and Alijah Bradley in '01 and '02). This year those numbers are 34 (Gibbons), 43 (Hagerup), 45 (Wile), 46 (Broekhuizen), and 54 (Jareth Glanda, long snapper and sometime immaculate receiver).
How Do the Football Legends Work Now? 21 is open on both sides of the ball.
Available on Defense Only: These are the numbers already held by scholarship players on offense. They are unlikely to be used because Hoke doesn't seem to like repeating numbers across units: 2, 10, 12, 16, 17, 26, 28, 33, 36, 52, 56, 58, 60, 65, 75, 77, 80, 83, 89, 94.
Available on Offense Only: 3, 6, 18, 20, 22, 24, 25, 30, 32, 35, 37, 41, 44, 49, 55, 67, 73, 76, 88, 90, 92, 95, 97
Just a Walk-On in the way: Walk-ons who make the two deep often change their numbers; those who don't often have a scholarship player take their numbers. There are exceptions; for example Mike Kwiatkowski is working his way into the tight end rotation and it's not like anyone desires 81 that much. I left out Burzynski who's on the projected two-deep already. The rest: 13 (Alex Swieca), 19 (Charlie Zeller) 23 (Floyd Simmons), 42 (Dylan Esterline), 61 (Graham Glasgow), 69 (Erik Gunderson), 70 (Kristian Mateus), 81 (Mike Kwiatkowski), 85 (Joe Reynolds), 93 (Chris Eddins), 96 (Baquer Sayed), 99 (Paul Gyarmati).
Currently Unused (Most Likely to be taken): 9, 15, 29, 31, 39, 50, 51, 53, 59, 62, 63, 64, 66, 68, 71, 72, 74, 78, 79, 82, 84, 86, 91
So here's the dudes who need numbers:
|Name||Pos.||# in HS||Tea Leaves||Best Guess|
|A.J. Williams||TE||88||n/a||88 – Open on offense; Roh will be gone next year.|
|Allen Gant||S||7 and 14||Father Tony wore 14||14 – Not filled with confidence re: Furman (I don't know any more than you do)|
|Amara Darboh||WR||15||Wore 415 at Nike Camp, favorite athlete is Carmelo Anthony who wore 15 in Denver||15 - book it.|
|Ben Braden||OL||51||Wants to play right away||51 - it's open now so why not|
|Blake Bars||OL||67||Wore 542 at Army game||72 - Honestly I'm just assigning OT numbers.|
|Chris Wormley||DE||47||Wore 842 at Nike camp, 44 in hoops||84 or 68 – This one has me stumped.|
|Dennis Norfleet||RB/KR||21||Wears 2 for hoops team, wore 80 at BoMW camp. Received his Michigan offer on 2/1. Born on 2/8||21 if available, or 31 - I don't know how they'll use Legends numbers now. If freshmen can have them it's an easy pick.|
|Devin Funchess||TE||5 and 15||No. 5 TE according to ESPN||85 - Move over Joe Reynolds.|
|Drake Johnson||RB||2 and 18||Was a QB at first and chose 18 for Peyton Manning, then 2 for Woodson. His college # will be someone good||32 or 6 or 23 - Drake is well versed in M RB lore|
|Erik Magnuson||OL||77||77 in US Army game, 714 at NFTC, 74 at Nike camp, 31 in hoops||78 - See Bars|
|James Ross||LB||6||Born 6/26. Wore 34 at Intl Bowl||36 – Going out on a limb with this one.|
|Jehu Chesson||WR||5||Wants the 1. Wore 357 at Army Bowl, 164 at NFTC||82 - with an eye on changing one day?|
|Jeremy Clark||S||2||Born 6/29||29 - Woolfolk-ish player, birthday, open, fits.|
|Kyle Kalis||OL||67||67 here, 67 there, 67 everywhre.||67 - Brink has it on D so no problem|
|Mario Ojemudia||DE||53||Twitter (when he had it) was @akaRio53||53 - Another easy fit.|
|Matthew Godin||DT||62||Was 774 at Nike, 408 at Army Combine||62 - it's available|
|Ondre Pipkins||NT||71||Publicly says he will wear 56 for Woodley||56 - book it|
|Royce Jenkins-Stone||LB||10||Wore 10 at Army Game. Twitter handle has 10 in it. Wore 54 at Intl Bowl||10 - seems special to him for some reason.|
|Sione Houma||FB||35||Is a fullback.||41 or 32 or some fullbackian number|
|Terry Richardson||CB||3 and 6 and 9||Wore 28 in Intl Bowl., #1 at UA Bowl. One of 9 kids.||9 – pretty good guess.|
|Tom Strobel||DE||36||40 and 52 in Basektball.||63 or 93 or 86.|
|Willie Henry||DT||74||Not much out there on him.||74 or 68 - (YMRMFSPA Mike Martin) so why not.|
Guess away. If we can be 50% correct when these things are announced in late July/early August, well, we'll be really special nerds.
no pressure, Ondre
As part of the run up to the Super Bowl, Smart Football posted a Grantland article detailing the Patriots' defense. It's not much good at football, that defense, but it is pretty interesting from the Michigan perspective for two reasons.
Reason one: it provides an excuse for Chris Brown to talk about techniques in an easy to understand way.
"Gap" refers to the area between offensive linemen. A 1-gap technique is just what it sounds like: The defensive lineman lines up in front of the gap he is responsible for and his job is to attack and control it. If nothing else, a defender must not allow a runner to go through his gap. While defensive linemen attack their gaps, the linebackers behind them are responsible for their own gaps. These are the defense's "run fits," meaning how they fit into an offense's blocking scheme to take away running space.
Courtesy of Chris Brown
The 2-gap technique, by contrast, sounds physically impossible. How can one player occupy two separate gaps? He does it by controlling the blocker. At the snap of the football, a two-gapping defensive lineman does what Wilfork did to Birk. He leads with his hands, gets leverage on the offensive lineman, and takes control of the blocker. From there, the advanced techniques kick in. On run plays, the defender reacts to where the blocker tries to take him. If he is double-teamed, he'll try to split the blockers and either shoot into the backfield or occupy the blockers, thus freeing up his teammates to make tackles.
In short, while a 1-gap player attacks gaps, a 2-gap player attacks people. Football's conventional wisdom states that an effective 2-gap lineman, particularly one who lines up in the middle of the defense like Wilfork does, must be enormous. Coaches refer to them as "war daddies." But size is actually less important than athleticism and smarts. The line between touchdowns and stops in the NFL is exceedingly thin, and it's footwork and feel that are the difference. It is the most violent, most complicated, and most beautiful ballet I can think of.
Count the war daddies on the Michigan defensive line. You come back with a true freshman and an inconsistent former five star who can't play consistently without standing up straight. The other guy who would be two-gapping in a 3-4 is… Nate Brink? Jibreel Black? A true freshman? Not happening.
This matters much more than a surfeit of linebackers when you're trying to pick a defense to run, especially when moving to a two-gap system does not get more of them on the field. The 3-4 is not coming to Michigan.
At least not in total. We might see bits and pieces, though…
Reason two is an interesting adjustment the Patriots have made to adapt to their personnel. Wilfork is a monster they would like to use to the maximum extent possible, which means two-gapping him. Asking him to be Mike Martin is a lot like asking Ondre Pipkins to run a bunch of goofy pass-rush stunts like he did in the AA game. But because of deficiencies elsewhere Bill Belichick (mainly a 3-4 guy) feels compelled to run a 4-3, which generally means one-gapping.
What to do?
The Patriots run a 3-4 to one side of the field and a 4-3 to the other, all on the same play. The key to all this is Wilfork. He lines up over the center and assumes his traditional spot of run-stuffing, blocker consuming, two-gapping war daddy. Belichick fills out the rest of the pieces based on the strengths and weaknesses of his other defenders.
Create a hybrid. This is the Patriots' under front, one similar to what Michigan ran this year except with one planetoid defensive tackle and one strong-and-good strongside defensive two-gapping. This might be something we see from Michigan next year. Getting maximum production out of Pipkins basically demands something similar.
The problem here is still the same one we have when we theorize about moving to a 3-4, though: there is no SDE on the roster with a prayer of being able to two-gap anything. If you try to get clever by flipping Campbell out there you're asking for it when that tight end goes in motion to the other side of the line and you're either rearranging the entire DL on the fly or running this:
Your weakside DE is not a pass rush threat at all. So don't expect this next year.
HOWEVA, even if you shouldn't go around calling the defense "basically Belichick's" yet, we should expect Pipkins' deployment to be radically different than Martin's. That should mean fewer blocks getting to the linebackers and more plays from that unit. If the ILBs find a surge in productivity it will be because of Pipkins—not because he is a better player than Martin, but because he's a different one.
You'll be able to tell if this is happening by Pipkins's alignment. Martin played a "shade"—he aligned in the gap between the center and guard. If Michigan wants Pipkins to be Wilfork they'll put him nose to nose with the center and say "sic 'em."
This is where disclaimers go. Even with New England doing this a major theme of the first half in the Super Bowl was that one-gap backside tackle getting doubled (often on zone runs) and blown up. It is never as simple as "this guy gets one on one blocking." All you can do is change the equation so that doing that exposes someone else to a tough assignment. You can't entirely cover up for a sucky player.
Pipkins may be talented but there's more to playing nose tackle than talent. You can dominate your guy, push him into the backfield, and still screw up if you lose control of one of your gaps. Usually this happens when the DT gets pushed too far in the direction he wants to go and opens up a cutback lane behind him. When one of these players is Gabe Watson and the other is Pat Massey, pain results. It's not too hard to envision that happening what with Will Campbell still a rotation player you're a little afraid of. At least he's not 6'8"*.
It may make more sense to start Pipkins off with the easier assignment (always one-gap) and hope to make him impactful in two gaps later in his career. That'll be one of the interesting tactical decisions we unveil against… oh, Christ. Alabama. Yay!
*[Who in the hell looked at a 6'8", 260 pound player and put him on defense? That is either a tackle or a tight end or a man who should be playing basketball.]
If Strobel/Pipkins/Godin/Wormley/Ojemudia had Mii's
Body Mass Index (metric weight divided by height-squared) isn't supposed to apply to athletes. It's a health heuristic used to calculate obesity, and according to the health professional I asked, it's not really that good at calling you fat because it doesn't say how much of that weight is muscle. It just guesses that your ratio is normal; for athletes that ratio is definitively not normal. Fortunately I'm not interested in whether our extant and incoming defensive linemen are in shape; I care about identifying which DL are what shape, how this applies to what positions the 5-man 2012 DL class* will likely play, and what the success/ failure/ mehness of similar looking players might suggest what we might expect out of next year's linemen.
* There's a chance Ojemudia may move but for now I'm counting him as a WDE.
The data. Thanks to Bentley we have an historical record of player weights: Google doc'ed here for your ease. For our purposes I'm taking the mid-'90s—when player size made its big leap—through the present. Height and weight data are bountiful, but making any use of them has been hard going. However the BMI seems to have one good use in determining who plays what spot in an unbalanced defensive line. Right away there's a noticeable difference among the playing BMIs at the four DL positions:
|Pos||Ht.||Wt.||Fr BMI||Playing BMI|
|1T (Nose Tackle)||6'2 2/3||299.4||35.4||37.7|
|3T (Def. Tackle)||6'4 2/3||291.6||32.1||35.0|
|7T (WDE)||6'3 2/3||260.4||29.4||32.0|
As you go from outside to inside height remains steady as weight goes up. Interestingly NTs are the shortest on the line as well as the largest, speaking to a certain shorter/stouter body type preferred at the position. Reported heights are not always accurate but the listed height on Rivals tends to match the freshman heights in Bentley's database, so I've used those across the board; the DL I expect has the least amount of height gain (most of these guys have more facial hair at 18 than I could produce at 22). It tells the story:
Lots of these guys moved about too, especially between SDE and DT, but you can kind of see why. What I'd like to do from here is take a position-by-position look at the size of all of these guys as freshmen versus the Class of 2012, and their growth over their careers (to test if hanging weight on a large frame can "build" a great DL) and finally put the playing BMIs versus the guys left on the roster to see if the 2012 DL at least looks like defensive lines of yore.
Renes talking down to lil bro | Bowman not being held | Watson being gravitational
Nose Tackle (NT, Nose Guard, 1-Tech) is the guy usually lined up shaded over the center. This job (most recently Mike Martin's) in a 4-3 under and 3-4 is similar in that the lineman must often stand up to double-teams or fight off a single-block lined up playside of him in order to cover two gaps. (Current players in bold, 2012 recruits in italics).
|Name||Class of||Ht.||BMI as Fr.||BMI-Ply||% Change|
Good news: Ondre Pipkins is as large as any NT to come in, in the top group with Watson, Kates and Ash. Watson and Ash both were asked to lose weight (Ash is now being rebuilt) while Kates lost his ability to play after adding another 4.1% to his body weight. The comparable here is something between freshman Gabe Watson (2002) and freshman Terrance Taylor (2005). The recruiting hype is in that range as well, but this is a kind of hard position to rank out of high school because most of these dudes just murder your typical suburban offensive linemen/future economics majors. They also get chopped a lot. Watson's high school career is responsible for at least three later shoulder surgeries I know of.
This is not necessarily such good news. Both Watson and Taylor played as true freshmen which suggests Pipkins's size should make him instantly plug-in-able. However they both had to wait to become starters; Watson was behind Lazarus and then Bowman before playing as a junior, and Taylor sat behind Watson (and Pat Massey at DT) for a year. The other guy with the same BMI as Pipkins—in fact he's almost identical—is current depth guy Richard Ash. But then here's where knowing the background of the players helps because Ash was kind of an out-of-shape flier expected to be Barwicized , while the book on Pipkins, like Watson and Taylor, is that he's carrying a lot college muscle already.
By BMI, Campbell is in the second group because of his height. Like OL/DL/Fck Lion Proprietor Marques Slocum, this method shows BWC's height as a disadvantage, making it harder for him to get his weight under offensive linemen. However his prodigious 5-star strength is still occasionally on display, and he admits part of his thing is effort. Quinton Washington, if he was an NT, would fit in this group.
The shorter guys in this part of the list finds some big successes among people coached by Hoke or Mattison: William Carr, Rob Renes and Mike Martin. But we don't have a guy like that right now.
The ones that had to be built—Bowman, Patterson, Wilson, Lazarus, Miller and Horn, came in about the size of Godin and Wormley and put on a lot of weight to be productive as upperclassmen (or in Patterson's case, a much needed body with functioning circulation and eligibility). Wormley could turn into a Lazarus or Wilson, who like Chris had the proverbial "frames" to put on a lot of muscle, and did so.
Next week: the DTs, the SDEs, and the WDEs.