there would have to be some to wash away
1/9/2013 – Michigan 62, Nebraska 47 – 16-0, 3-0 Big Ten
on mah grind (Bryan Fuller)
also note all five Nebraska players are in this shot looking at Burke
Yesterday's game was an ugly slow-it-down slugfest that brought one particular game to mind: Michigan's matchup with that 2005 Illinois team everyone brings up when they attempt to put this year's offense in historical context. The Illini were 23 games undefeated, Michigan was 3-6 in the league and so injury-wracked that walk-ons Sherrod Harrell, Ashtyn Bell, and John Andrews got 51 minutes between them. Collectively they attempted three shots.
Michigan's strategy consisted of taking the air out of the ball, giving it to Dion Harris with the shot clock winding down, and vaguely hoping. It darn near worked. Michigan kept contact the whole night, leading at points, and eventually went down to a narrow six-point defeat. It was an extreme underdog kind of strategy willing to trade possession-to-possession efficiency for increased variance, because over time Michigan was just going to die.
Better to up the randomness: no turnovers, no transition buckets, all half-court jump shots which can do things like rim out. If basketball had innings, you'd lose by more, on average. It doesn't.
So Nebraska came out determined to make this basketball game an exercise in half-court blithering. Michigan obliged, clanking a series of threes and free throws. They were never really threatened and pulled away for a comfortable win at the end—more comfortable than those amazing Illini, by some distance. By the end they'd fallen a few points short of Kenpom/Vegas, understandable in a game with a mere 57 possessions. By comparison, Michigan's only other game in the 50s this year was Binghamton. Give them the extra ten opportunities at the basket they had against Iowa or Northwestern, and change the tempo of the game to get them, and… well, yeah.
This is what it's like to be the overdog against a team that knows they're nowhere near your level. The opponent tries to whittle down the time and opportunities you have to display your superiority, and when your keep coming up craps on your shots things get a little sticky. This game serves as a reminder that the great hand of fate is waiting to crush you, but shouldn't impact expectations going forward much, if at all.
Redundant Bullets Header Section
Photos. From Bryan Fuller:
Concerns: do we have them should we have them what? Yeah, a couple. One: Michigan had only six assists on 21 makes. At times it seemed like too much of the offense was guys going one on one. Maybe that was just Nebraska's defensive philosophy? I don't recall much help defense or switching. Six is a really low number, though, and I don't think that was all on shots that usually go down not doing so.
Two: Nebraska was able to keep their turnovers way down (just six). Turnover avoidance is the only bright spot on their offense, so again this may be part of their extreme underdog philosophy. It would be nice to have a defense that could pick up steals to spur Michigan's excellent transition offense; at this point that does not seem to be in the cards.
Pounding the glass. Michigan's offense actually reached a respectable 1.1 PPP by the game's end despite subpar shooting everywhere because they had their usual lack of turnovers and they pounded the offensive boards. Michigan grabbed 41% of their misses, with three to each of the frontcourt guys (McGary, Morgan, Robinson) and a whopping five "team" offensive rebounds that IIRC were mostly Mitch McGary being a possession-generating animal. Like that one where he was roaring out of bounds and flung it off a Nebraska player. That's probably a "team" rebound.
Because of that, McGary's impact on the box score was considerably lower than I expected it would be after watching the game: 1/4 shooting, three OREB, three DREB, a block, a steal, 18 minutes. That looks like not much, but my eyes are all like "he is rounding into form as a monster possession-generator." Back to back with the Iowa game it's exciting to see him round into a guy who makes an impact whenever he hits the floor, which he will do literally at times. Frequently, even. I bet he dives at squirrels on the Diag if they're orange enough.
Remember when Zack Novak won the Michigan dunk contest?
Tweet of the night #2:
I feel like I just watched a Michigan State football game
Tweet of the night #3, in response to #2:
[ed: reference to this]
Tweet of the night #4, in re: Minnesota:
Please write your own term papers, please write your own term papers, please write your own term papers...
And Tweet of the night #5, in re lol:
Periodic Hardaway complete player alert. Just one assist in this game, which is not a huge surprise with six total, but made up with an 11-DREB double-double. Nebraska got just 18% of their misses, which is fantastic. Also it is perhaps further evidence of extreme underdog strategy: the Cornpack was so focused on getting back to prevent transition opportunities that there was almost never anyone on the glass.
KNITTING LADIES OF CRISLER, WE SALUTE YOU. A Michigan woman comes prepared for commercial breaks.
yeah you know I made this scarf myself
This is becoming a thing.
Periodic bitching about long twos. Gonna do it: in this game there were several instances in which it seemed a player—Burke and Hardaway generally—passed up a good look at a three for a two just inside the line that was at least as difficult a shot. Burke in particular can get that eighteen footer whenever he wants, so unless the shot clock's under ten keep working.
Also in complaints: it seemed like Nebraska went under screens all night and Burke too frequently allowed them to do this instead of pulling up for the three. No hedge and guy goes under screen means that screen is not disrupting the balance of the defense, and the driving lane isn't great since the guy isn't trying to fight through over the top. I'll take an open three from Burke any time.
Stauskas. I'm watching Stauskas get to the basket and dish impressive assists and wonder a bit about next year. If Burke and Hardaway are gone, isn't he going to be the primary creator on offense? I guess it'll depend on how good Derrick Walton is and how much GRIII develops his handle. Smooth out some of Stauskas's rough edges with an offseason, though, and he's a credible shot creator.
Gauntlet: now. The next month of Michigan's season:
- @ OSU
- @ Minnesota
- @ Illinois
- @ Indiana
- @ Wisconsin
- @ Michigan State
Here it is. Purdue and Northwestern should be slam dunks, and I'm not too worried about Wisconsin no matter where it is this year. Then you've got a couple should-wins (OSU at home, @ Illinois) and the four road games that will decide damn near everything. Win all the should-wins and go 2-2 there and you've got to be feeling good about winning the league. In all likelihood there are three losses in this stretch, though, and it'll come down to holding down home court against Illinois, State, and Indiana to finish out the year.
Ah yup. I've seen this in my twitter feed a half-dozen times but if you don't have it, here's Chris Paul apropos of nothing:
Honestly, if Burke went in the top ten would you blink? I would be like "yep."
I regret I only have but one life to give for excessively elaborate charge calls. Ed Hightower is fine after an incident in which, well:
If there's a purple heart for referees, there shouldn't be one. Also Hightower has it.
Last night West Virginia shot 15% on their 3s and 38% on their 2s on the road. And won.
Texas is horrible. Meanwhile, Illinois is all like OH NO NOT AGAIN:
Illinois just crested 1.0 in that OSU game, BTW. They kind of are thrash.
|WHAT||Nebraska at Michigan|
Ann Arbor, Michigan
|LINE||Michigan –23 (Kenpom)|
The N stands for "nope."
Brandon Ubel must have gotten lost on the way to Wisconsin.
Also, two years ago Nebraska played something called Peru State.
According to Kenpom, the Huskers are the worst team in the league and only a Tim Frazier-less Penn State is anywhere close. A plurality of Nebraska's attempts will come from 6'5" senior Dylan Talley, who has Burke-like usage but shoots 35% from two. No doubt he is the guy saddled with late shot clock heaves that Nebraska's slow-it-down offense obtains plenty of. When he gets a three he knocks it down at a decent 35% clip.
Backcourt partner Ray Gallegos is mostly a standard-issue distance gunner—shots are two-thirds threes, no TOs, assists, or free throws. Unfortunately for the Huskers his plentiful threes are dropping at a 32% rate. When he does get a shot from inside the arc it tends to go down.
Center Brandon Ubel is probably Nebraska's best player. he gets to the line pretty well, hits 80% from there, and hits a little better than half of his relatively frequent twos. His rebounding is only okay and he doesn't do much defensively, but if there's a spot on the floor where Nebraska has any sort of size/athleticism advantage it's in an Ubel-Morgan matchup.
5'9" freshman point guard Benny Parker is almost nonexistent on offense. A third of the time he registers in the box score, it's because he's turned it over; in 15 games he's launched a total of 52 shots. For context, he shoots less often than Spike Albrecht.
There isn't really a fifth starter. Wing David Rivers gets just over half of available minutes; he is a statistical non-entity. 6'6" wing Shavon Shields is a turnover machine as well; his game looks like rim or nothing. Andre Almedia is the most interesting bench player because he's frigging enormous—6'11" and at least 350 despite being listed at 314—and manages to get off the ground enough to have a top-100 block rate and be the team's most effective rebounder on both ends of the floor. He only gets 40% of available minutes, likely because any more would kill him. I'd look for Michigan's athletic bigs to run the floor against the guy.
Finally, junior Mike Peltz makes me wish Kenpom tracked lowest usage: in 15 games he has put up 14 shots despite being on the floor a third of the time.
Nebraska's best wins are against Valpo and Tulane, fringe KP100 teams. They've lost to Kent State, Creighton, Oregon, and UTEP by double-digits and got blown out by OSU in their Big Ten opener. They did beat Wake Forest and USC—two of the worst major-conference teams in the country—and led Wisconsin at the six-minute mark before falling 47-41.
This is a major-conference version of EMU with a grim offense and okay defense:
|eFG%||Turnover %||Off. Reb. %||FTA/FGA|
|Offense||46.8 (216)||18.6 (75)||25.6 (321)||29.2 (300)|
|Defense||48.2 (176)||18.7 (265)||24.9 (7)||36.2 (187)|
An okay defense relative to the rest of college basketball, that is. Nine Big Ten teams are 52nd are better; only Northwestern and Penn State are worse. They are the worst offense in the league by some distance.
They can't shoot threes, don't shoot many, keep opponent threes to a relative minimum, and offensive rebounds are minimal at both ends of the floor.
Drilling down, the best news for Nebraska is that they own the country's 18th-best free throw defense. Clutch, you guys, clutch.
Show up. The game will proceed from there.
Sag if you want to. Talley's the only guy on the team who's even mediocre at threes.
Iso Burke if you want to. This Parker kid is going to have to check Burke, which good luck, or switch on to a 6'5" player. Either way, he doesn't have a prayer of not getting lit up.
Don't wander off at halftime. Challenge: challenging.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 23
Why even pretend Burke has to compete for the Bob Cousy award? Moreover, if there are 20 "finalists," what do you call the guys when you cut it to ten and then five? I hate award PR.
NESBITT ASKS THE IMPORTANT QUESTIONS
When did it become OK to coo about Michigan basketball?
MY ANSWER IS SIX
Well, Mr. Baumgardner, I think Michigan will respond to adversity by not having any.
Gasaway: Michigan is good on offense. #science