ncaa tournament seeding

Each of the two preceding years saw Michigan Hockey's season ended by COVID-19. They had a decent shot of making the NCAA Tournament in March of 2020, but then the world fell apart and the tournament was canceled. In 2021, they drew this region. Woof. Could they have won a game? Perhaps. Two? Ehhhhh...I'm guessing no. But this year...THIS YEAR...this is The Year. This has to be the year...right? Well, as much as any year is THE YEAR, this is THE YEAR for Michigan Hockey. This is the best team since at least 2008. And if not then, we're talking sometime since before Alex Drain was born. They have the #1 overall seed. They've played half of the teams in the tournament in preparation (if there is preparation for such a thing *breathes heavily into a paper bag*). There are no discernible weaknesses; they've won every conceivable type of game. All that's left to do is...win four consecutive random hockey games in WhoKnowsWhereVille USA!

Why do we do this to ourselves... 
 

The Field

[For those who want to see a more detailed bracket, click HERE]

Michigan’s Regional (Allentown, PA )

(1) Michigan, (2) Quinnipiac, (3)St. Cloud State, (4) American International: This...is a pretty nice draw, actually. They avoided all of the *GULP* teams in ND, The Other ND, and Duluth. Wow. Hey, alright. But I guess it should be, since Michigan is the #1 overall seed. The regular season should mean something, darnit! They draw the automatic qualifier from Atlantic Hockey and then would face the winner of Quinnipiac and St Cloud State...two teams who could not be more different. The Q-Pac Bobcats use the Six Goalie technique to beat up on the ECAC. St Cloud is Michigan under RichRod in 2010. Run 'n Gun, SCORES, Best Power Play in the Country...but finishes fifth in their conference. Too bad we're in...uh...*checks notes* Allentown? Yikes. Too bad we can't do this at Yost instead and, you know, actually have fans (as I've written about here: one, two, or three).

(1) Michigan vs (4) American International

This is it. Don't get scared now. [Zoey Holmstrom]

Things Michigan Needs to Do Against American International (because David is trying to steal parts from the full preview on Friday):

1. ATTACK! Alex has done some research, and we chatted about how and why these supreme underdogs upset #1 seeds. Usually, it's when very few goals are scored. The Mighty Mites sit back, defend, and try to Goalie you. So...within this insane randomness...try not to let that happen. Push the envelope and try to jump on them early and often. Score goals and change the complexion of the game from the initial faceoff. Like we've seen against Michigan State (and Notre Dame, even though they are a legit team), getting goal(s) early forces them out of their comfort zone and into an actual hockey game. Obviously, getting Goalie'd isn't something that is always controllable, but the longer you sit back and wait for perfect chances, being patient and trying not to make a mistake...the longer AIC will believe they belong in the game and all they need is a break here or there. End it early. Plus, if you make a mistake, Erik Portillo has been money shutting down chances.

2. Play With Underdog Intensity. Despite being the higher ranked and favored team in the last couple of games against Notre Dame and Minnesota, Michigan played as if they were not. They skated harder, won puck/board battles, and took charge in each of the game. One of the bug-a-boos that this team has had from time to time is complacency. Generally, the Wolverines are the more talented team that should win the statistical battle (and, I mean, the game), but not skating with a sense of urgency has done them in before...or at least created unnecessary peril. They've hopefully got four games left together. Might as well play like it.

3. Don't Take A Major. Lol. In Elimination Hockey, that's a great way to give the underdog some life. Also, Michigan leads the world in doing this (probably). Have they been called consistently OR fairly? Ha. That's not the point, though. When in tricky situations, don't make a questionable hit...like, say, when you can see the opponent's last name and numbers right in front of your face. American International has a solid power play. Maybe don't give them an extended look.

Final Thoughts: I mean, look...Michigan is the #1 overall. This is the most talented Michigan team since at least 2008 and possibly ever. They might be the most talented team in college hockey history. They are playing an automatic qualifier who would not make the tournament if every conference wasn't guaranteed a spot. On paper, this is barely worth talking about. If this game were played in November, Alex would be rolling his eyes at me note-taking. But this is March and we've got the most ridiculous tournament format known to man. Michigan wins ANY series length against AIC (and quite possibly any other opponent they will face subsequently). But in one game? Ugh. Just don't do anything drastically terrible. If they play the way they've been playing since they walked out of Compton Ice Arena in on February 27th, they should be fine. Hopefully.

Alex's Take: Michigan should win this game. As long as they play their game and put the puck in the back of the net, they should win. The Wolverines have much better players, AIC isn't a defensive juggernaut, even in their conference, they don't have a crazy good goalie, and they got smoked by UMass, who Michigan handled easily. Go out and score a couple quickly and put the game out of reach and skate into Sunday. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: All of the games that don't involve Michigan]

Three years ago, Michigan made an exciting run to the Frozen Four. Then…they finished sixth in the Big Ten. Last year, the Wolverines were on the Bubble and poised to make a run into the Tournament, again, when the postseason was canceled. Now, we’re back…to 2011? 2018? Maybe pick and choose and have a celebratory 2021? Let’s see…
 

The Field

Michigan’s Regional (Fargo, ND)

(1) North Dakota, (2) Michigan, (3) Minn-Duluth, (4) American International College: What the…death. I said on the HockeyCast last week that the two teams I wanted to avoid for their seed levels were North Dakota at 1 and Duluth at 2/3. Well…here they are! Michigan drew the Mammoth Beast, the Tournament Magicians, and…Notre Dame American International. NoDak and Duluth are also playing a few hours from home. This seems similar to 2018 when Michigan drew Northeastern and BU in Massachusetts. Hopefully, they get the same results. Still, I would prefer we do one of these instead: one, two, or three. Maybe one day.

(2) Michigan vs (3) Minnesota-Duluth

Deeeeeeeeeeeeep Breaths………sigh [James Collar]

Things Michigan Needs to Do Against Minnesota-Duluth:

1. Get shots. Michigan is near the best in the country on even strength attempts on net. Duluth isn’t ranked a lot lower in even strength corsi, but I would expect the Wolverines to be able to control the puck for stretches of this game. The Bulldogs have alternated goalies, but it doesn’t seem like they have completely settled their competition in net…probably because neither Fanti nor Stejskal have completely claimed the crease. With a couple of notable exceptions, Strauss Mann has been extremely dependable. If Michigan can force whomever the Bulldogs start in net to try to win them the game, my money is with Mann. To top that off, the Duluth Kill looks like something that Michigan should be able to take advantage of.

2. Push the Puck to the Blue line. Duluth’s defense has scored 4 goals and 37 total points. The Bulldogs get the bulk of their scoring from their depth of forward lines. In the defensive zone, Michigan needs to stay tight inside and put the pressure on the Duluth defensemen to do the play-making and shooting.

3. Hope Duluth’s Tournament Luck Changes. Starting with their victory over Michigan in 2011, Duluth has won 6 straight NCAA Tournament games if they reach OT.  They are also 8-1 in one goal games in their last three NCAA Tournaments. On top of that, they are back-to-back defending National Champions. I’m not trying to take anything away from the program that Scott Sandelin has built nor that talent he has brought in and developed over the last decade+…but at some point you can’t win every coin flip…can you?

Final Thoughts: Duluth has mostly similar numbers to Michigan, but they are slightly worse on the Kill and in net. Their draft picks are also mostly mid-to-low round choices. Against NoDak and St Cloud (the top two teams in the NCHC), Duluth is 3-6-1. This doesn’t appear to be one of Those Duluth teams, either. Michigan has a little more high end talent, is steadier on the back end and in net, and seems a notch better on each side of special teams. Is this the time to exorcise some demons? It might just be.

Alex Drain’s Take: If you renamed Duluth "Idaho State", I think most Michigan fans would feel very good about this matchup, as good as you can about a 2/3 game in a one-game, single elimination hockey tournament. But instead this team is Duluth, and with it comes the associated mojo, be it from 2011, or their back-to-back championships. However, as David mentioned, things have changed in the Iron Range. Goaltender Hunter Shepard, who was an assassin in the tournament, has moved onto the AHL. As has Scott Perunovich, Mikey Anderson, Riley Tufte, Dylan Samberg, Justin Richards, and Parker Mackay. They've still got some talent and a great coach, but they lack the obvious signs of a team that could cause trouble in this type of tournament, most notably the absence of a rock in net. Across the board they come off as a largely unimpressive middle-tier NCHC team. That's still probably a good hockey team, and one that could very easily take down the Wolverines, but I think Michigan is favored. You don't get many power plays in playoff hockey, and so it's imperative that Michigan converts when they get them. And maybe stick a pin in the Duluth voodoo doll while you're at it, too. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: All of the games that don't involve Michigan]

The Big Ten regular season title race may have come down to Indiana's inability to score 50 damn points at home, but let's check the home stretch for the three main contenders anyway. The upshot is it's almost certainly going to take 16 wins to claim a share—there's only a 10% shot someone doesn't get there, going by Torvik's numbers. Maryland and Wisconsin have razor-thin shots to grab a share, but this is a three team race. Those teams:

PURDUE

The decks are relatively clear for the Boilers, which doesn't have a game left they're an underdog in. Their stretch run:

• @ Nebraska (60% to win)
• Illinois (88%)
• Ohio State (79%)
• @ Minnesota (64%)
• @ Northwestern (72%)

Torvik has them finishing with 16 wins ~40 percent of the time; 15 or fewer is a ~40% shot; 17 is a 20% shot.

MICHIGAN STATE

Michigan State has the luxury of a half-game lead. Their closing stretch:

• @ Michigan (44%)
• @ Indiana (77%)
• Nebraska (89%)
• Michigan (69%)

These numbers don't take Nick Ward's absence into account, at least not much. By this point in the season they've got quite a lot of post-Langford MSU baked in. Thanks to the half game lead they're a slight favorite over Purdue to win a solo title. 16 wins is the most common outcome, which is a 43% shot. Their tougher schedule means 17 is harder to get to (14%) and falling short of 16 (42%) more likely. Also: Ward. 

MICHIGAN

Michigan has the hardest remaining schedule because in addition to the MSU home-and-home they've got 1) a fifth game tonight and 2) a trip to Maryland on the docket:

• @ Minnesota (69%)
• MSU (56%)
• Nebraska (85%)
• @ Maryland (51%)
• @ MSU (31%)

So their span is wider and it's much harder for them to get to 16 (30% shot) or 17(8%), although they're the main beneficiaries of the Ward injury. Winning tonight will pull them up into numbers parity with the other two teams; Purdue's schedule is easier but at that point they'd have one extra chance to lose.

[After THE JUMP: a seeding crab and the Big Ten bubble]