justin shorter

Resources: My charting, PSU game notes, PSU roster, CFBstats

It's a Franklin team: some ludicrous skill position players, a questionable offensive line, and five-stars all over the place. The main differences versus last year is the pass protection is a bit better, they have a ridiculously tough new top-100 running back we all remember from when Michigan was trying to get him, and the Speedy Eaglet is loose. A concern is the Joe Moorhead Space Ferrari stuff still looks very hard to defend, and Ricky Rahne is starting to get more comfortable at sticking to a few of them he understands instead of randomly punching buttons. Also the new "pocket" quarterback has transformed himself into a true dual threat. Also it's a white-out night game—yes, for the fourth time in five visits—because the rest of their home schedule is Idaho-Buffalo-Pitt-Purdue-Indiana-Rutgers, and heaven forbid Pitt ever think they're a rival.

The film: Iowa. At Kinnick. At night. Where they avoided getting Kinnick'd. Which might be the scariest thing. Also this was last week, Michigan is now a Cover 2 team, and even I wouldn't want to touch that game when they got outgained by Pitt at home and won because Narduzzi thinks math is for nerds.

For this they drew the notorious John O'Neill officiating crew, who were their usual, game-overshadowing selves. I usually try to avoid these clown shows because the players know how bad they are and start using it to get an edge. I did my best to try to ignore things that would get flagged normally unless it got too egregious.

Personnel: My diagram:

PDF version, full-size version (or click on the image)

I charted the running back rotation because they're trying to find snaps for four guys. True freshman RB Noah Cain (+23/-2 on 44 snaps) got the slight majority of snaps due to taking over the 4th quarter. He's the next one of Those guys. Classmate Devyn Ford (+1,-0 on 17 snaps) is a high-acceleration complement, and Journey Brown (+2/-0, –1 pass pro in 15 snaps) should settle into a 3rd down back role—he's a quasi receiver already and the most effective blocker the rare times an RB stays in the backfield for that. Former five-star Ricky Slade (+1/-0 on 4 snaps) appears to be the odd man out. For now Franklin's going to try to keep them all happy until circumstances force him to use Cain.

The receivers are hyper-talented, starting with slot KJ "Speedy Eaglet" Hamler (455 yards, 65% catch rate, 5 TDs, 11.4 YPT, +9/-0, one drop in this game), who is justifying every time we've had to hear Ace bitch in our Slack chat about Michigan not pursuing the slippery local prospect these many years. A lot of the offense goes through him or the tight ends. The #1 is "Baby Gronk" Pat Freiermuth (203 yards, 68% catch rate, "3" but really 4 TDs, 8.1 YPT, +7/-2 as a blocker) a very lengthy New England dude with a nose for the end zone who's maybe another offseason of weights away from Mackey-level. The comparison gets senior TE Nick Bowers (136 yards, 1 TD, 17 YPT, +2.5/-2, –1 pass pro) called a blocker, which is unfair to a 60/40 receiver-type who flexes outside a lot. Shortish sophomore WR Jahan Dotson (261 yards, 67% catch rate, 3 TDs, 12.4 YPT) is effective at finding spots underneath coverage. He's very different from classmate Justin Shorter, the composite 8th overall prospect last year because he's a tight end-sized person with the speed of a 4-star outside prospect. Shorter occasionally lines up as a tight end as well. The backups only get a handful of snaps; Chisema was stolen from the track team.

[after THE JUMP: Happy trails]

BBQ Visitors: Offense

The weekend in which I can't leave my laptop for more than 30 seconds is nearly upon us. The BBQ at the Big House is on Saturday, and it features a visitor list absolutely loaded with top-end talent. 247's Steve Lorenz has the full, updated list posted for free, as well as an excellent VIP post that goes in-depth on each uncommitted 2017 and 2018 prospect who'll be on campus. I'll do my best to cover the highlights. Keep in mind that every 2017 Michigan commit save for Aubrey Solomon, Kai-Leon Herbert, and AJ Dillon is slated to be in attendance.

The headliner, of course, is #1 overall prospect Najee Harris, the California running back committed to Alabama. According to Lorenz, Bama insiders think Michigan is the top threat to flip him from his current commitment, and Harris will be accompanied by his mother on the trip. Harris won't be the only back at the BBQ; four-star UT RB Sione Heimuli-Lund is a Stanford commit who could wind up at RB, FB, or LB (or, given Harbaugh, all of them).

Michigan's top four targets at wide receiver will all be in attendance. Donovan Peoples-Jones and Nico Collins need no introduction at this point; Michigan leads for Collins and is the presumed leader for DPJ. Four-star IA WR Oliver Martin is ramping up his recruitment now that baseball season is over—this weekend should give us a good idea of where Michigan stands compared to MSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, and his other contenders. Four-star CT WR Tarik Black has Michigan in his top group, though Lorenz thinks Notre Dame and Stanford are out ahead at this point. Michigan's top tight end on the board, four-star CA TE Josh Falo, will also be at the BBQ.

With three-star AL OT Toryque Bateman naming Michigan his leading heading into his BBQ visit, the offensive line is the most likely (though far from only) source of a weekend commitment—Bateman pegged his chances of committing at 50% and potentially higher if the visit goes as well as his last trip to Ann Arbor. Four-star tackles Isaiah Wilson and Aaron Banks are also on the list; Wilson is a Michigan/Bama battle right now, while the Wolverines are hoping to lure Banks away from top-tier Pac-12 programs.

As I was writing this, Steve reported that four-star OT Henry Bainivalu will make the trip from Washington. This is the second unofficial for Bainivalu, which is especially notable for a prospect from the other side of the country—Michigan definitely has a shot, and...

...oh boy, we might have a situation here.

One prospect who'd been mentioned as a possible visitor who won't make it: five-star KY OT Jedrick Wills, who looks like a longshot at best.

In the 2018 class, four-star Oak Park OG Marquan McCall—who could also wind up at DT—will accompany his committed teammate, OT JaRaymond Hall. While I've avoided mentioning the 2019 class, early rankings have Belleville OT Devontae Dobbs as a five-star prospect; he'll be at the BBQ with a couple classmates from a program that's got a lot of young talent.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]

Vilain Shuts It Down

A few significant developments emerged from what was a strong recruiting weekend for Michigan. First and foremost is the optimism surrounding Michigan's chances with top-100 VA WDE Luiji Vilain following his weekend visit. Michigan has pursued Vilain, a Canadian import, since he was a freshman and Brady Hoke was still in charge, and they were one of the first Power 5 schools to get in on what's become a legitmately national recruitment. Sam Webb has a lengthy, free post on Vilain's reaction to his visit last weekend, and the Wolverines are in great shape:

“I came in with high expectations, but I was still pretty blown away,” said Vilain.  “It was really good.  Everything was different.  The vibe as soon as I get there, I felt that it was different. There’s change.  I guess that’s the Harbaugh effect.”

Webb issued one of his famous "gut feelings" about an unnamed recruit who will make his choice public in mid-June, and all signs point to Vilain, who told Sam that after last weekend he won't need to take any more visits before making his decision. After speaking with his parents and his trainer, he'll decide between Michigan, Virginia Tech, and USC. It would be a surprise if he didn't end up a Wolverine before the end of the June.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]