josh groll
With the season unceremoniously terminated there's nothing to do but look to the future.
2020 finally sorts itself out
This annual series spent a lot of time pointing out that Michigan had a hockey team worth of hockey players lined up for 2020 and that something had to give. Various somethings did and now it's time to regard the departed, in rough order of deletion:
- F Antonio Stranges: Michigan commitment was a placeholder so he would drop to the second round and go play for London in the OHL. Currently projected as a second-round pick.
- F Cole Perfetti: Same as Stranges except an OHL team called his bluff in the first round and signed him. Projected as a top ten pick. Evidently never really a commit so that blunts the pain a bit.
- D Mitchell Smith: Never likely to stick and did not, signing with his local OHL team. Does not appear draftable.
- F Austen Swankler: defected to OHL about 30 seconds after an article in his local paper in which he seemed set on Michigan. Might get drafted late. 45 points in 59 OHL games in draft year means he had a decent shot at being a scoring line forward.
- F Andrei Bakanov: Had a rough transition to the USHL, scoring 14 points in 51 games, and then left for the OHL after going high in their import draft. Not doing so hot there, either, but potential late-round selection in the upcoming draft. 23 points in 55 OHL games is pretty meh. Moffatt track.
- F Nicholas Zabaneh: decommitted in November; twitter bio now states he's headed to BU. Had a solid USHL year with 34 points in 48 games.
- D Nick Bochen: Flipped to Quinnipiac in December, almost certainly because QU would take him in this class and Michigan asked him to defer.
- F Patrick Guzzo: Flipped to Ohio State, again because OSU would take him immediately and M probably wanted him to defer.
- F Dylan Wendt: Has decommitted and is currently on the market.
- F Cassidy Bowes. Flipped to UConn.
- D Jake Harrison has a strikethrough on Chris Heisenberg's comprehensive list of college hockey recruits but is not currently listed as a commit elsewhere. I couldn't find anything explaining why.
That is eleven decommitments, five to the OHL and six to other college teams. One (Perfetti) is elite, a second (Stranges) would have been a super fun Hensick-ish college player, three others (Swankler, Guzzo, and Zabaneh) were/are solid bets to be productive college players but are more or less interchangeable with the last couple Fs in the class. The other guys are a bit marginal.
[After THE JUMP: Larkins abound]
RIP Blazefire. Michigan and MGoBlog has lost Blazefire84 at the far-too-young age of 35. Here is his obituary; here is the board thread. Blazefire was a good guy, and a good internet person. The latter is so very hard. He'll be missed.
Good news tomorrow? The Army All American Bowl is tomorrow at 1 PM, and Michigan will have a hat on the table for CA CB Darion Green-Warren. Green-Warren has already signed and is announcing a choice that's already locked in, so in this case the tea leaves are pretty easy to read and point towards Michigan, which has 94% of the crystal balls. Might be worth tuning in.
Green-Warren is a top 200 prospect at a position where Michigan could use some reinforcements. USC is the other main player in his recruitment, and we've detailed USC's stunningly bad recruiting multiple times.
Draft entry o'clock. Now is the time when people get serious about making draft decisions. So far for Michigan, Josh Uche and Sean McKeon have foregone potential fifth years and accepted Senior Bowl invites while Kwity Paye and Nick Eubanks have announced returns. Other potential departures:
- WR Nico Collins: Isaiah Hole reports he's hearing Collins is leaning towards a return. Most other chatter has held similarly.
- WR Donovan Peoples-Jones: There's a lot of wobble in DPJ projections in what's going to be a loaded WR draft. The Athletic's Dane Brugler made it sound like he was a mid-round pick despite ranking him in the top 10 WRs; he's the first pick of the second round in Matt Miller's mock draft. There hasn't been much word on which way he's leaning.
- C Cesar Ruiz: Ruiz's draft evals are even more all over the board than DPJ's, with a lot of blue checkmarks on twitter having him in the fourth or fifth route while Tony Pauline has him as a late first rounder. When asked about the NFL in a press conference before the bowl game Ruiz gave the standard "thinking about Future Opponent" answer with no elaboration.
- CB Ambry Thomas: Thomas hasn't put it on Twitter but in a bowl press scrum he said "You can just assume I’m coming back." He did leave a little bit of post-bowl wiggle room; I don't think he had a paradigm-shifting Citrus Bowl. I'd assume that he sticks with his original decision. As of the 28th he hadn't submitted his name for a draft grade.
If I had to guess I'd say Michigan loses Ruiz and gets everyone else back. Losing Tarik Black to a transfer is a bummer but if Michigan gets their top two WRs back that's much better than I was expecting.
FWIW, our speculation that the guys who played in the 78-0 Rutgers game back in the day still could get redshirts, a group that included McKeon, does appear to have a proof of concept in Carlo Kemp. Sam Webb reports that Michigan is "confident" he will be granted a redshirt year after appearing in two games as a true freshman.
[After THE JUMP: do you like dated stuff? Because I have lots of it.]
Bakanov is a sniper
2020 and beyond
War. War with the OHL never changes. Michigan has returned to their Berenson heyday ways, picking off super high-end OHL prospects and watching some of them defect. London already signed Antonio Stranges, one of the four(!) five-star types who'd announced commitments to Michigan by the time the OHL draft rolled around. That particularly sucks because he had supposedly already signed with the NTDP, and none of the other three guys are Americans who can shelter under USA Hockey's wing until it's time to matriculate.
The big-timers, in order of likelihood to actually arrive:
Andrei Bakanov. Bakanov moved from Moscow to play AAA in the States a couple years ago and immediately drew notice thanks to his 6'2" frame and skill to pair with it. He didn't go in the OHL draft because he wasn't eligible; he probably wasn't eligible because he didn't bother applying to overturn whatever bylaw kept him out. Another Russian immigrant was technically ineligible but the OHL swiftly repaired that once he indicated he was interested in the league.
Bakanov subsequently signed a USHL tender with Cedar Rapids and will likely play there for two years before matriculating. He is a big, scoring wing.
Andrei Bakanov (02) commits to Michigan. Moskva, RUS native w/ the Oakland Jr Grizzlies 16U. Strong, powerful skill/power FWD, NHL caliber shot already, great skill set. #WhosNext
— Matt Grainda (@graindaiv) March 31, 2018
His 13-10-23 line in 18 games led the HPHL, a six-team league of major AAA teams in the Midwest, in PPG. They play relatively few games because at that age group there's a ton of going around to various showcase events; the league fills downtime between them. His full season stats are eyepopping:
Bakanov, a six-foot-two, 192-pound forward, spent the 2017-18 season with the Oakland Jr. Grizzlies, totaling an impressive 112 points (57G, 55A) in 77 total games between the program's HPHL schedule and U16 AAA schedule.
Before the draft a couple of OHL scouting sites were touting him as a potential top five pick, with Priority Selection ranking him fourth amongst OHL draft eligibles. OHL Prospects:
You don’t have to watch too long before you see his best trait, a deadly accurate, hard shot that probably gives goalies at this level nightmares. Bakanov has the Russian patience for sure, taking his time to read plays at times and then striking exactly when you least expect it, often drawing peer-to-peer comparisons to famous NHL player Evgeni Malkin. Footwork is a little heavy for Bakanov, but his smooth puck handing and decent smarts help mitigate this issue. … His goal scoring capabilities, his patience with the puck, and his NHL sized frame will be highly coveted.”
Some guy on HF Boards who seems to know what he's talking about:
…really made strides since last year when I saw him. Big kid that gets through the neutral zone with a lot of speed and he has some hands to match. He had a really nice breakaway goal against York Simcoe. Whoever gets him has a player on their hands.
Tenders skip the draft and sign with a USHL program; in exchange the USHL team forfeits their first rounder and commits to playing the tendered player for a majority of the season. The USHL is a brutal league for 16 year olds; most tenders struggle to put up points. If Bakanov can that'll be a great sign for his future.
[After THE JUMP: Swankler.]
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