i have the sinking feeling this is totally useless

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[After THE JUMP: It's all Brian's fault. All of it.]

Previously: Northwestern Offense

This didn't result in a touchdown, making it different from every other clip in this post.

Michigan probably isn't going to take advantage of this because of reasons you're all very well-versed in—namely, Michigan isn't good at offense—but Northwestern gave up 38 first-half points to Iowa so I really have no choice here but to point out the the Wildcats may not be very good. I realize this will only add to the sadness, and for that.

Personnel: Diagram goes here—click to embiggen:

It's unclear if strong safety Ibraheim Campbell will be able to play, let alone at 100%, on Saturday. He was supposed to return to the starting lineup from a hamstring injury against Iowa, but was a late scratch when his leg didn't cooperate; Campbell says the "chances are pretty high" that he'll play—as a senior captain, he's certainly going to do eveything he can to get back on the field.

Also, Northwestern has an honest-to-god punter controversy after sophomore Chris Grandone was replaced by redshirt freshman Hunter Niswander after struggling against the Hawkeyes. The Wildcats are 120th nationally in net punting; there could be an opportunity or two for a big play there.

Base Set? 4-3. The Wildcats ran an over front last year, but against Iowa they played a lot of under.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]

Previously: Michigan State Offense (NOTE: C Jack Allen will play, according to Mark Dantonio.)

Kurtis Drummond's day in a nutshell: this late throw to the flat turned into a 30-yard gain

I really don't know what to do with this.

Michigan State's defense isn't as good as last year's, that much is certain. On the average play, they're still a very stout group; they're in the top five in opponent first down rate, opponent available yards gained, and 10+ play drives ceded, per Football Outsiders. FO also reveals their major problem: big plays. MSU ranks 97th in percentage of opponent drives that average at least ten yards per play. They finished ninth in that category last year.

It showed against Purdue. The Boilermakers offense either hit the MSU wall and exited with alacrity or busted a couple chunk gains on their way to scores. That ended up working out to the tune of 340 yards on 5.5 yards per play—not spectacular, but not bad, either—and 31 points, with three of the four touchdown drives covering at least 60 yards.

So, there's a ray of hope. But I also saw Purdue run multiple packaged plays with solid success, including a touchdown on a pop pass to a motioning slot receiver, and the light dims just a bit. Quite a bit. A great deal of bit, really. But hey, it's hope.

Personnel: Seth's diagram is now updated to properly reflect the amount of recruiting talent Michigan's offense is largely squandering. Click to embiggen and view Seth's pessimism regarding how M's coaches may decide to utilize their available personnel coming off a bye week in which MANBALLING may have been emphasized:

MSU keeps their base personnel on the field just about every down, with corner Trae Waynes and linebacker Ed Davis aligning to the boundary across from "STAR" (hybrid LB/S) David Harris and CB Darian Hicks on the field (wide) side. RJ Williamson and (sigh) true freshman Montae Nicholson have each earned starting nods; they're still battling for the strong safety job and both should see snaps on Saturday.

To address a typo, Kurtis Drummond is 6'1, 202 lbs., and not a three-tech masquerading as a free safety.

Base Set? The 4-3 alignment you see above. Either Harris or a safety—or both—will be shaded over the slot; an example:

Also note the depth of the safeties; in MSU's aggressive Cover 4 scheme, they tend to play relatively close to the line.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]