RIP. Sad week for the Michigan family, as Mister Simpson and Ryan Mallett both died far too young. Mallett drowned off the Gulf Coast—apparently one of 11 people to lose their lives to rip currents in the past two weeks. Simpson's death is under investigation by the Cincinnati police department. Keep their families in your thoughts.

Toe meets leather. Warde Manuel asserts that the changed Big Ten format will not affect The Game:

“The Game will remain at noon in the regular season when we play,” Manuel said on “In the Trenches,” a podcast produced by Michigan Athletics. “We’ve had great fan enjoyment of that game, and being at noon. Great television response in terms of numbers of people who who watch that game. I think there’s no need to move it to any other time. It’s really been become a part of that series and people sort of set their calendar, set their clock to watch that game at noon on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.”

This of course sets up the unappetizing possibility of an immediate rematch for the Big Ten championship, but aside from some wacky bloggers making wacky, impossible suggestions—Seth and I are specialists in this department—I'm not sure what the alternative is.

Also note the assumption that the Game will be at noon, which is technically not guaranteed—Fox could choose another Big Ten game for their #1 overall pick—but is about as certain as anything in this crazy mixed-up world.

Math wins. There used to be a cottage industry around here: fourth-down clucking. We still mention it from time to time, but the section on the podcast that used to mention unforgivable Brady Hoke decisions has mostly been reduced to things like "ehhh… that's really close." That's because college football has gotten a lot more aggressive on fourth down. Bill Connelly provides a graph:

Since there are occasional correct punt decisions even in the top two categories college coaches are probably approaching optimal. I also enjoy the big spike in 2020, as the college football collective decided that nothing mattered lol. Then they were like "oh… that worked" and kept going for it.

Michigan was not on the leading edge—you probably know this—but chose its spots superbly:

Meanwhile, Michigan went for it just 21% of the time (87th) but picked its spots well and profited by 5.3 points per game (ninth). Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines converted 17 of 21 attempts (81%, second in FBS) and scored 81 points after those 17 conversions. Opponents scored only seven points after the four failures.

No decision was more important, bold, and correct than Michigan going for it on fourth and one in their own territory early in the third quarter against OSU. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes:

OSU's power success rate last year: 117th.https://t.co/yCiOphiKq4

— mgoblog (@mgoblog) June 22, 2023

I imagine this is high on the list of offseason priorities in Columbus. It'll be interesting to see how that number changes this year. If it stays stubbornly low it could be a sign that Ryan Day's just a finesse kind of guy.

[After THE JUMP: yeahhhh we're just going to ignore you thanks]

[Bryan Fuller]

The title of the post still says “Post-Indiana,” but I seriously considered bucking convention and naming it “Pre-Ohio State.” With the stakes of The Game as high as they’ve been in a decade, it only felt right to look at where the two teams’ advanced stats are similar and where they’re different.

Still, it’s worth discussing what happened against Indiana. The offense took a fairly large hit in overall efficiency, falling from 23rd to 41st in success rate. The rushing offense’s success rate saw a nearly identical drop in the national rankings, falling from 21st to 42nd. The passing offense did even worse, with the success rate falling from 45.3% to 42.5% and from 26th to 50th. On standard downs, Michigan’s offensive success rate only dropped from 51.5% to 49.5%, but their ranking tumbled from 22nd to 43rd. The offense fared worse on passing downs, with their success rate dropping from 34.4% (39th overall) to 31.5% (62nd overall). The offense had a difficult time keeping on track, and their inability to pick up the necessary yardage to stay in manageable down-and-distance situations led to the drops in success rate. Of note is that the offense struggled in that department across the board (passing, rushing, standard vs. passing down, etc.) but with little impact on their other numbers, which stayed fairly stable. A few long runs helped keep the offense’s explosive play-realted numbers afloat.

The defense, already at or near the top of most categories, saw little movement. One of the bigger changes was in the defense’s IsoPPP, the number Bill Connelly uses to track explosiveness; Michigan moved up from ninth to fourth. That’s pretty much it. The defense is good. The stats are good. They both remained so against Indiana.

[After THE JUMP: how Michigan stacks up against Ohio State according to S&P+ and FEI]

About Last Week:

Upchurch

The Road Ahead:

Ohio State

When they play Michigan: This is a pretty simple week.

We can discard with the usual trappings of this column. Every other week of the season we recap the opponents’ previous games, and we analyze how frightening they are, and we look at what should worry you about those teams and what shouldn’t. Those are necessary artifices when we are trying to add some color to a game three weeks out against Maryland, or to put a win over Illinois in greater context. The Game needs no added color. It needs no greater context. It brings its own.

You don’t need me to tell you what can make you feel better about this game. Nothing can, and you know that. You don’t need me to tell you why you should worry about this game, assuming you have the power of memory. And we don’t need to recap Ohio State’s previous games, nor Michigan’s for that matter. They don’t particularly matter, nor do they tell us much of note. The Game is an entity untethered from the rest of the season. Last year, Michigan came in as a top-10 team, and got their doors blown off at home. In 2013, 6-5 Michigan was a two-point conversion away from beating 11-0 Ohio State. In 2011, it was Luke Fickell’s 6-5 Ohio State team was one overthrown bomb away from beating Brady Hoke’s Sugar Bowl team. And the John Cooper era was one long video game where the player breezes through the level but can’t get past the boss.

The rest of the season has to be played, of course. Each week the two teams dutifully clash with their respective opponents. But each does so with one eye on the other, like two Homeric heroes cutting their way towards each other on an ancient battlefield. And sometimes, when things line up just so, the teams arrive as they do this year; with each having something extra weighing on the outcome. Not since 2006 have both teams had so much relying on the final score. But that simply affects the week leading up to The Game, and the days, weeks, and months afterward.

The hatred and familiar loathing take on a different hue in light of the conference and playoff implications, but the underlying artwork is unchanged. The first time the ghastly tones of that abhorrent fight song hit your ears, or the first time some Buckeye player throws up an O-H, or (god forbid) the first time the broadcast shows that vapid, poorly-cased narcissism sausage, Big Nut, you will be transported back to the place where the context is irrelevant, and the hatred is all-encompassing. Is this 1970? 1986? 2016? Who knows. Who cares. It’s these guys. I *hate* these guys. Get ‘em. F***ing get ‘em.

For those who demand greater context? Fine. Win, and there is a fooball game next weekend. Michigan goes to the Big Ten Championship Game for the first time. You see Chris Wormley and Taco Charlton and Jourdan Lewis and Jake Butt and the rest of the seniors play to hoist a trophy. You will get to see more Jabrill Peppers. Michigan will be the favorite to earn a playoff berth. A win sends Ohio State, who entered this week as the #2 team in the playoff rankings, home as the #3 team… in their division. Lose, and none of these things happens, and the one-sided nature of the rivalry continues unabated for another year.

But that’s Saturday morning stuff. That’s just what they’ll talk about on College Gameday outside the Horseshoe. Noon on Saturday is about Maize and Blue and Scarlet and Gray and a hundred urgent, violent moments. Let God and the committee sort the rest out.

This week: Everything. Noon. ABC.

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Hawaii (5-7, 4-4 MWC)

Last week: Won at Fresno State, 14-13

Recap: Hawaii took down Fresno State, and is now one win away from Bowl eligibility (they get 13 games because they’re in the middle of the ocean and that’s how things work). To get there, they will have to win a rivalry game for the Voyages That Would Have Killed Anyone In The First 95% of Recorded History Trophy, as Umass will travel more than 5,000 miles to play the Rainbow Warriors. It would be quite something, after the entire offseason of laughter about Michigan’s no-conference schedule, if all three teams made a bowl game.

This week: vs. UMass, Midnight (Hawaii -7.5)

[AFTER THE JUMP: I told y’all about the Buffs…]