game preview

Braylon-catch-vs-MSU[1]Essentials

WHAT Michigan State at Michigan
WHERE Michigan Stadium

Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN 3:30 Eastern

October 17th, 2015
THE LINE Michigan –7
TELEVISION ESPN
TICKETS From $210(!)
PARKING Sold out(!). Better get on that OSU spot.
WEATHER mostly cloudy, high 40s, 0% chance of rain

Overview

Michigan State entered this season a projected juggernaut with an NFL quarterback and that ol' Spartan defense. While MSU is undefeated, it hasn't really worked out like that. MSU saw their marquee win severely compromised when Utah atomized Oregon at Autzen and then erased when Washington State beat the Ducks in overtime.

Meanwhile MSU has struggled to separate from a collection of teams that are Not Good. CMU was within a touchdown deep into the third quarter. Air Force outgained MSU by about 100 yards but repeatedly fumbled away a chance at the upset. Purdue came storming back from 21-0 to 24-21 and had two cracks at a winning drive. Rutgers led most of the way last week.

None of these teams are sneaky good. Oregon is currently the top-ranked MSU opponent in S&P at 64th. WMU and CMU look like MAC bottom dwellers. Purdue and Rutgers are Purdue and Rutgers. I guess we can give MSU a pass against Air Force because never schedule Air Force. But Michigan State looks vulnerable. Thus an approximately 14-point swing in the line from preseason.

Run Offense vs Michigan State

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McDowell gets upfield in a hurry

(This preview ignores the Air Force game for obvious reasons. Never schedule Air Force.)

Michigan State's defense is, as always, highly aggressive. MSU has overwhelmed a number of very bad rush offenses; the last two weeks they have also parted like the Red Sea for long touchdowns. They want to be in your backfield on every play, but this year they don't have the secondary to back that up consistently.

MSU runs a lot of twist blitzes with their linebackers that see DT Malik McDowell roar upfield a gap or even two outside where he is nominally expected to be. This has killed Michigan (and a lot of other teams) for a long time. It'll be interesting to see how Michigan combats that under Jim Harbaugh.

We had a brief period of competitive football last week in which it looked like he wanted to spread a similar defense horizontally and run zone at it. That was only dubiously effective, as two big De'Veon Smith runs came when linebackers missed tackles at or near the line of scrimmage and several others were blown up. But by the time adjustments should have been made, Michigan was up 28-0 and thinking about this game.

Anyway. McDowell, Lawrence Thomas, and Shilique Calhoun are all penetration-or-death types; three-tech Joel Heath is more of an OL occupier. This can lead to some big gaps when someone roars upfield and Heath gets blasted back—to my eye he's not too good. The trick is getting through that gap instead of getting nailed in the backfield.

MSU's linebackers are all okay to good. They miss Ed Davis's playmaking presence but with Yet Another Bullough and Jon Reschke they hold it down just fine.

If Michigan tries to pop outside they are going to meet a version of the fate that Karan Higdon did against Northwestern. MSU will activate the playside safety as soon as Michigan shows run action. The difference here is that Northwestern has a very solid pair of safeties and MSU does… not. The entire MSU secondary struggles to tackle.

Add it up and it's still pretty good. MSU ranks 47th in rush defense on S&P, and while their plain old numbers aren't nearly as good you should remember that we are ignoring the Air Force game, a huge distorting factor.

Michigan's end of this has been solid and uninspiring. They've willingly flung their dudes into stacked boxes for big chunks of games, both to hone their players and run down the clock. An ever-shifting series of fancy plays has helped them keep their head above water, and a penetration-mad MSU seems vulnerable to Harbaugh's wham series plus the various traps Michigan's shown to date. I'm sure MSU coaches are aware of this as well, but there's only so much you can do to revamp what you do in a week.

Michigan's OL has rounded into a B or B+ unit featuring Mason Cole and Graham Glasgow as emerging stars; their blocky/catchy crew has been at about the same level. De'Veon Smith, Michigan's lead back, had a detectable limp after the Northwestern game but will play and will probably carry the load all day. His injury is one that lingers but you can tough it out, and Smith is a tough hombre.

Michigan is going to want to get reasonable gains when they are put under pressure and hit a few big plays. Like Northwestern, down-to-down consistency is going to be tough to come by.

KEY MATCHUP: MCDOWELL and CALHOUN versus WHAM and ASSORTED OTHER HARBAUGH GOTCHA PLAYS. The prospect of a coaching matchup that is even or even slants a bit towards Michigan is on the table. Wouldn't it be nice?

[Hit THE JUMP for NOT YOUR OLDER BROTHER'S MICHIGAN STATE SECONDARY and THE GUY ACTUALLY LIVING UP TO EXPECTATIONS]

EssentialsTeam-celebrate-Cisek-sword-post-IA-12[1]

WHAT Northwestern at Michigan
WHERE Michigan Stadium
Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN 3:30 Eastern
October 10th, 2015
THE LINE Michigan –7.5
TELEVISION BTN
TICKETS From $91
PARKING From $20
WEATHER sunny, chilly AM, mid 60s gametime, 0% chance of rain

Picture at right posted in a spirit of genuine love and admiration for Bo Cisek.

Overview

Run Offense vs Northwestern

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Anthony Walker is not to be confused with Antoine

This has been up and down for the Wildcats. They've hampered Stanford and Minnesota (a combined 3.5 YPC after sacks are removed), but both Duke and Ball State gashed the Wildcats for more than five yards a carry, nearing 200 yards each. Duke's output was their best of the year on a per-carry basis; they just rushed for under a yard per carry in a 9-7 win(!) over Boston College. Ball State also just rushed for under a yard per carry against Toledo. They did not win.

So this is very different than Michigan's run D. It's not exactly bad. But it's not amazing. Northwestern is 44th in YPC allowed, and that's after facing the #35, #39, #83, and #109 rush offenses plus an FCS team. That is average performance against an average schedule. (For comparison, Michigan is fifth against #21, #32, #41, #84, and #115. IE: on another level entirely.)

Northwestern has a much more extreme version of the linebacker dichotomy Michigan does. Anthony Walker has been heroic this season, with a typical statline of 18 tackles, 3 TFLs, one baby saved from a burning building, and a PBU. Ace:

MIKE Anthony Walker flew under the radar heading into the season, but it's hard not to notice him now that he's amassed 44 tackles and 8.5 TFLs through five games for one of the most surprisingly strong defenses in the country. While he's a tiny bit undersized at 6'1, 235, he's got great athleticism for an inside linebacker, and his ability to read and react only makes it easier for him to shut down plays in a hurry:

Walker is at his best going sideline to sideline but he can also shed blocks and make plays between the tackles; he's also a solid cover linebacker.

The rest of their linebackers are nowhere near his level; I have seen them make weak tackle attempts in many games, get out of position, etc. After Walker, Northwestern's next two leading tacklers are the starting safeties. Only then do the other starting LBs come. Get Walker blocked and you can get to the secondary.

The Northwestern defensive line is fine. They're solid. They execute their assignments. They have something of a playmaker in Dean Lowry (4.5 TFLs). Ace compared him to Ryan Van Bergen and I think that's on point. I really liked RVB's game, but he's not Joey Bosa or Yannick Ngakoue. I am more optimistic about Michigan's ability to pound out yards against this defense than Ace is; the numbers for the season aren't great, and Minnesota's infinite offensive problems probably inflated the assets of the Northwestern D.

As for Michigan, Steve Lorenz is reporting Michigan should have De'Veon Smith back for this game. I have heard similar; I expect he will be available but maybe not 100% depending on his pain tolerance level.

Smith's projected return is a major boost. Michigan's anger back had his most impressive outing of 2014 in the #M00N game:

He was at his most effective against Northwestern, when he was able to slip through the line and utilize that power and balance to bludgeon the Wildcats.

One particular third and short conversion was whistled dead despite Smith still inching forward with two different Wildcats hanging off him like 300-pound Christmas ornaments.

This is much the same crew he's going up against; if he can duplicate that performance Michigan has gone a long way towards winning.

That is somewhat likely. While Northwestern's taken a step forward on defense, it hasn't shown up too much in the run game; meanwhile this is basically the same Michigan rushing offense with a much better coaching situation. Consistent production is likely.

KEY MATCHUP: DE'VEON SMITH versus THE FLAILING ARMS OF THOSE WHO PLEAD FOR HIM TO STOP HIS BLOODY REIGN OF TERROR

[Hit THE JUMP for a SIGN OF THE APOCALYPSE and a SIGN THAT NORTHWESTERN IS ALWAYS THEMSELVES]

O0nTGVDEssentials

WHAT Oregon State at Michigan
WHERE Michigan Stadium
Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN Noon Eastern
September 12th, 2015
THE LINE Michigan -15
TELEVISION National on ABC
TICKETS From $38
PARKING From $10
WEATHER low 60s, partly cloudy
10% chance of rain

Parking note sponsored by Park 'n' Party, which is your fancy same-place-all-the-time tailgate headquarters. They tell me they're now expanding into catering and equipment so they can accommodate all levels of commitment. They also say that if you wait you will not get parking and then you will wander the earth doomed for all time have to explain this to your spouse.

Meanwhile maybe Oregon State should go with some iconography, because logos don't seem to be going so well.

Overview

The Wolverines' half of the Craft Beer Battle against the state of Oregon—winner gets to relocate the brewery of their choice—comes against Oregon State's Beavers. OSU (Not That OSU) got caught up in last offseason's weirdest set of coach swaps when longtime coach Mike Riley was somewhat inexplicably hired at Nebraska; Oregon State responded by pirating a discontent Gary Andersen from Wisconsin, who went and got Paul Chryst from Pitt, and then Pitt may have gotten the best coach involved in any of this by hiring Pat Narduzzi.

Andersen's got his work cut out for him. He inherits two defensive starters and is going with a freshman quarterback on a team that went 2-7 in the Pac 12 last year. Oregon State opened the year with a worryingly competitive win (13-7 deep into the second half) over Weber State, a 2-10 FCS team that doesn't even have its punter anymore.

Run Offense vs Oregon State

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Jaswha James is the only returning Beaver starter in the front seven

While concern is clearly warranted, we are advising Michigan fans not to panic about Michigan's rushing performance against the Samoan-laden Utah Utes. If such a thing repeats against the Beavers it's time for the sackcloth and ashes. Oregon State was 87th in the country last year in rush defense and lost virtually the entire thing.

They've moved to a Real Actual 3-4 this year with 260-pound DEs and feature a safety-ish freshman WOLB. From the FFFF:

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if you're wondering, the "Peko" at NT is former MSU DL Domata Peko's cousin

Even that white-spackled lineup might oversell Oregon State's returning experience. Jaswha James, one of two guys asserted as a "returning starter," only started 7 games last year. But you roll with what you've got in marketing:

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James had 16 tackles last year and two TFLs.

That's a veteran front, which is good and not good for them. They're not freshman for the most part; hooray. Most of these guys couldn't start on a pretty bad defense that had every reason to start looking to the future about halfway through the year; boo. Also they are undersized at about five of the seven spots in the front seven, give or take a 233-pound ILB.

But things change so Oregon State could suddenly be good—Andersen's certainly a good coach. We didn't get much indication either way in the Beavers' opener, but Weber State did scratch out 4.8 YPC on just 15 carries. That's not good but neither is it definitive. OSU's best hope is probably that Peko, a JUCO transfer, is a revelation and he can disrupt Michigan's rather flailing guards.

As for Michigan, game one was confused and dispiriting. I thought just about everyone not named Glasgow was bad. Both guards got deposited yards in the backfield; Mason Cole struggled to block anyone on the sweeps Michigan had set up to break big; De'Veon Smith was all right but found maybe one or two cutback lanes the whole game and missed a couple of cavernous holes. We're going to see just how far a Harbaugh team can come over the course of the season, because they're not starting from a high point.

KEY MATCHUP: Tailbacks versus holes. I expect they'll be there because if I don't expect that I'm resigning myself to another season of painful, painful offensive football. Also, they literally have a 260 pound 3-4 DE named "Failauga."

So: Michigan is still looking for a back who can find gaps in the line that may not always be where they were supposed to be presnap. Drake Johnson may return; if so expect him to get a run out, and possibly lock a job down.

[Hit THE JUMP for A DENARD-ISH OFFENSE.]