does one normally change in response to success?
Previously: Iowa From 1000 Feet
|WHAT||Michigan vs. Iowa|
|WHERE||Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan|
|WHEN||7 pm Eastern, Wednesday|
|LINE||Michigan -2 (KenPom)|
|TV||BTN (PBP: Eric Collins; Analyst: Stephen Bardo)|
Right: Fran McCaffery, delightfully unhinged.
THE LAW OF GUS
Is canceled, unfortunately. The Big Ten went so far as to send out a press release last Thursday letting us know Gus Johnson would be joining Stephen Bardo on the BTN broadcast. However, Johnson's flight was canceled today (damn you, weather), so instead Eric Collins will be on the call. This shouldn't prevent the game from being wildly entertaining:
Tonight's doubleheader on BTN is not to be missed. Iowa/Michigan has the 2nd-highest thrill score of the season, per @kenpomeroy (UL/UK 1st)
— Josh and Mike (@bigtengeeks) January 22, 2014
KenPom's thrill score doesn't even account for the inevitable Fran McCaffery tantrum. Speaking of...
Last year, Brian created the Bo Ryan Index:
THE BO RYAN INDEX. Take the first three rows of Google Image Search and calculate in what percentage of those shots is the coach looking enraged, incredulous, furious, or otherwise unpleasant to referees or his team. Bo Ryan's Bo Ryan Index: 65%, and I think some of the misses could be sarcastic smiling.
John Beilein checked in at 25%, Tom Izzo a shockingly low 19%, and since-fired Bill Carmody registered a zero. How you lookin', Fran? [click to embiggen]
Using the first-three-rows method (I couldn't help but include a fourth), Fran's Bo Ryan Index is at 52%, and that's giving him the benefit of the doubt regarding some incredulous-looking stares. Equally remarkable is that there's zero in-between for McCaffery—he's either chewing out an official or locked in a tearful embrace. Fran McCaffery may not be emotionally stable.
We're not done yet, either. The woman giving the proverbial WTF hands in the last row is, you guessed it, Mrs. McCaffery. They're quite a match:
Margaret McCaffery first made headlines in 2006 when she and her husband were ejected from a game at Hofstra. After Fran McCaffery was tossed for what he said was the first time in his career, his wife was ejected later in the game after a tirade at officials that included profanity. She was escorted from the arena by a security guard.
Long live the McCaffery dynasty.
Oh, right, the actual game. Iowa is a very deep squad that can throw out a variety of looks without losing effectiveness; 11 Hawkeyes have scored in double figures in a game this season—eight of them at least five times—and they'll roll out each of those 11 guys at some point in the game.
The straw that stirs the drink is 6'6" guard Roy Devyn Marble, who starts at shooting guard but also gets plenty of run at the point. He's the key to Iowa's transition game—more than a third of his shots and well over half his assists come in the first ten seconds of the shot clock, per hoop-math. While his shooting percentages are an underwhelming 44%/37%/65%, he's a solid passer, rarely turns the ball over, gets to the line frequently, and scores 19 points per game by virtue of carrying much of the halfcourt load—he's attempted almost twice as many non-transition shots as any other Hawkeye. Marble also boasts the #27 steal rate in the country, generating a lot of his own fast break opportunities.
Iowa's most efficient offensive player is 6'9" forward Aaron White, who will inevitably be called "deceptively athletic" because he's a white guy with mad bounce—YouTube features a preseason dunk-filled highlight mix set to DMX(!!!):
White averages 14 points per game despite picking his spots carefully, attempting just over seven field goals per game. He does this by being incredibly efficient, ranking second nationally in true shooting percentage thanks to a 69% mark from two and 86% rate on a considerably high number of free throws. Not only is he a great finisher at the tin (75%), he shoots an excellent 53% on two-point jumpers. Splitting time between the three and the four, White also rebounds quite well.
The obvious choice would be to stick Glenn Robinson III on White for the duration, but 6'7" rebounding machine Melsahn Basabe complicates matters greatly. Despite being two inches shorter than White, Basabe is the nominal starting power forward—yes, this team is big—and his primary attributes are stellar rebounding, shot-blocking, and a pretty decent post game, albeit in a low-usage role. He's enough of an interior presence that Iowa will occasionally play him at center.
6'1" sophomores Mike Gesell and Anthony Clemmons split time at the point, with Gesell starting and playing ~50% of the team's available minutes. Gesell's assist rate is just outside the top 100 and, unlike Marble, the vast majority of his dimes come in halfcourt sets. He doesn't add much else offensively—his 46.4 eFG% is not very good—but is second on the team in steals to Marble. Clemmons has seen his minutes wane in Big Ten play; over the last four games, he's played 28 minutes and scored one point—Gesell and Marble are absorbing most of his playing time against quality competition.
Iowa features three solid bigs in addition to Basabe. 7'1" center Adam Woodbury is the starter, though his rebounding and shot-blocking have taken a surprising plunge into mediocre territory after a solid freshman campaign last season. He's not much of a factor on offense, averaging 3.3 points against Big Ten teams not named Northwestern.
6'10" junior Gabriel Olaseni gets just about the same number of minutes; he'd rank third nationally in offensive rebounding rate (19.1%[!]) if he played just a tiny bit more to qualify, and his block rate would place within the top 50. While he's shooting just 46% from the field, he gets to the line at a very high rate and shoots 70% at the stripe.
6'9" sophomore Jared Uthoff plays over half of Iowa's minutes coming off the bench at both the four and the five; he's basically what Aaron White would be with more range and slightly less touch inside the arc, posting a 57%/52%/85% shooting split while getting to the line at a high rate. He's also an excellent defensive rebounder and shot-blocker.
The Hawkeyes also have plenty of depth on the wings. 6'7" small forward Zach McCabe is a 35% three-point shooter who crashes the boards well. After missing the team's first 12 games with a foot injury, 6'5" junior Josh Oglesby has shot a lights-out 12-for-20 from beyond the arc, though he could fall back to earth hard considering his career 31% mark; thus far this year he's thrived as a spot-up gunner in transition. He's taken a lot of minutes away from 6'6" freshman Peter Jok (just 16 minutes in Big Ten play), who hasn't done anything particularly well aside from making free throws.
There's your 11-man rotation. I need a Gatorade.
[11-man rotations require a jump. So... JUMP.]
Should old B-Dub bowls be forgot,
and never brought to mind?
Should old TFLs be forgot,
in days of auld lang syne?
It's a brand new year full of not last year. Let's enjoy it.
RPI Effect Only Teams:
UMass-Lowell (2-12) picked up their first win over a D1 team. South Carolina State (4-9) played South Carolina close but lost. Houston Baptist (3-11)… don’t ask. are below the 300 mark to KenPom, and Coppin State (4-10) lost by only 2 points to Towson, but remains in a really really sketchy part of Baltimore. Long Beach State (4-10) were actually just down two points with five minutes left to Missouri, but couldn’t close the deal. Holy Cross (6-8) lost a very patriotic week, dropping games to Boston and American. Charlotte (9-4) downed North Carolina A&T.
Big Sorts of Teams:
#9 Iowa State (14-0, 2-0 Big 12)
This week: Beat Texas Tech (73-62); Beat #7 Baylor (87-72)
Iowa State is now the second-best team on Michigan’s non-conference schedule, both in the polls and on KenPom. The Cyclones dismembered Baylor at the Hilton Center. They led the entire second half, pulling away late. Point Guard DeAndre Kane had a monster game, going for 30 points, 9 assists, and 8 rebounds.
This was the start of an absolutely brutal stretch for ISU. They play Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Kansas twice, and Oklahoma twice in the next thirty days. The Big 12 is pretty good this year.
Florida State (10-4, 1-1 ACC)
This week: Lost to Virginia (62-50), Beat Clemson (56-41)
FSU dropped from 24th to 39th in KenPom on the heels of a home loss to Virginia. They shot only 30.8% from the field and had 16 turnovers to only 8 assists. Weirdly, they only got 14 shots out of their front court, making only 5. Maybe they forgot that being really tall helps, or they thought they had an unfair disadvantage being so very very tall.
#16 Dook (12-3, 1-1 ACC)
This week: Lost to Notre Dame (79-77); Beat Georgia Tech (79-57)
|This guy > Jabari Parker|
The Blue Devils lost to Tom Crean Memorial Disappointing-NCAA-Tournament-Run Award Winner Mike Brey and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 79-77. Jabari Parker scored only 7 points on 2-10 shooting. He was outscored by ND freshman Steve Vasturia. Do you have enough canned goods? You should probably purchase more canned goods.
Duke did manage to squeak by ACC palate-cleanser Georgia Tech by 22 points.
#1 Arizona (16-0, 3-0 PAC 12)
This week: Beat Washington State (60-25(!)); Beat Washington (71-62), beat UCLA (79-75)
Washington State isn’t very good. They’re basically Northwestern, but farther west and not as good academically. And sure, they have the offensive efficiency of a cat chasing a laser pointer dot. But they held the #1 team in the country to 28 points in the first half… and still trailed by 21 points. Only one Cougar had more than one make from the field; Junior Longrus scored his team-high six points on 2-for-6 shooting. Amazingly, no one on either team made more than three shots or had more than three assists all night, and the game featured only one player in double-digits (Caleb Tarczewski had 11). For the PAC-12, this game was very B1G.
Stanford (9-4, 0-1 PAC 12)
This week: Lost to Cal (69-62)
Stanford fell out of the KenPom top 50 after a 7-point home loss to rival Cal. This isn’t a huge problem for Michigan given Michigan’s win over Minnesota and the continued improvements of Iowa State. Still, Stanford being good would be good.
[Jump for the Big Ten]
Crimson and Crodcast. I appear on CrimsonCast talking about the game. I'm not very audible early, unfortunately.
FRAN! I ALREADY TOLD YOU THE MORTGAGE RATE WILL ADJUST IN FIVE YEARS HOW HARD IS THIS TO UNDERSTAND
GET OUT OF MY BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANK
(Iowa beat Penn State too narrowly for McCaffery's taste.)
Glory grasped. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl champs, man.
It doesn't get any better than this you guys.
Statistical indications. Dylan's hookup with Synergy Sports makes me all jealous and stuff, because he can tell you that Indiana's not real good at defending the pick and roll:
The Hoosiers rank in just the16th percentile nationally while defending pick and roll ball handlers. Michigan happens to have one of the best ball screen offenses in the country including the two best ball screen scorers in the league. …
For comparison, Ohio State – who stifled Michigan’s ball screen offense – surrenders just .56 PPP to screen and roll ball handlers (89th percentile) and .82 PPP to roll men (77th percentile).
There's still something that seems strange with those number since it seems impossible that allowing 0.84 points a possession on anything is, like, bad, but the percentiles are the percentiles. When it comes to the pick and roll, Indiana finds themselves squarely between Northwestern and Penn State:
Not where you want to be. Also note that Michigan's the best team in the league at defending the pick and roll what with their hard hedging.
Anyway, Burke and Stauskas's proficiency with the P&R will hopefully force Indiana to do things they don't want to—like play zone—or lead to lots of that scoring stuff.
Dylan also brings up a salient point from last year: Crean put Christian Watford on Burke, like, a lot. Given the relative success Illinois had at holding Burke's numbers down by switching Nnanna Egwu onto him in the pick and roll we might see something similar, at least until Mitch McGary rebounding against Yogi Ferrell becomes a bit of an issue.
More indications of how this is probably going to go. Barry Alvarez is on record that he would like to see Wisconsin play Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska yearly in the Rhombus of Hate. Add that to the pile of evidence suggesting the Big Ten will tear up the Where Is Wisconsin and Why Is Wisconsin Here divisions for the conference's brief stop at 14 teams.
Speaking of The Big Ten, Too model:
“Based on the last three years I’ve been in this business, you’d be crazy not to think about it," Michigan athletic director Dave Brandon said. "But it’s hard to model anything because you don’t know what to model. The minute you get yourself convinced that you’re going to go from 14 to 16, for all you know you’re going to 18, and a lot of people think the ultimate landing place is 20. Who knows?"
I guess it's a better ideal than this bit.
Gene Smith's still pushing for ten conference games, BTW.
Frieder: still mad. Bill Frieder's been making the rounds this week and seems to have a little bit of bitterness left over from his matchups at Assembly Hall back in the day:
"The hostility of that crowd and everything else you have to go against at Indiana (is tough)," he said. "You usually won't get good officiating at Indiana, you usually get a bad call or something bad with the administration along the sideline. There's something to do with the shot clock or the clock not starting on time.
"You'll have everything going against you, so you'll have to play extremely well to win the game. ... When you play Indiana at Indiana and they're a top five team, you're going to be the underdog, no matter where you're ranked."
If the second half goes anything like Illinois's against MSU last night I won't stop twitching for weeks.
Etc.: MSU guard Travis Trice apparently fine after nasty hit to head last night. More on the "catfishing" story, which I stopped caring about a lot faster than everyone else. Everyone's in a tizzy about whether in fact the term was used. Indiana-Michigan previews from Inside the Hall and the Crimson Quarry. Also UMHoops.
HHHHYARRRR! A reminder from BHGP why you should generally root for Iowa basketball:
Avast! Mizzen the wizzenhench and agglomerate the septicules! NAVAL SPEAK MEANS GET OUT OF MY BANNNNNNNNK
Our good feelings are not helping them reach the tournament, unfortunately.
I dare you to release that Big Ten Network poll, then. In other Big Ten Expansionfiasco news, athletic directors claim that everyone likes having to figure out which division they're in via mnemonic:
"When the Leaders and Legends were first announced, people were like, 'What the heck does that mean?'" said Penn State athletic director Dave Joyner. "I think people are starting to learn it, though. … I don't hear much from fans writing in and saying, 'You've got to change the names now,' or anything like that."
Some ADs, like Barta and Purdue's Morgan Burke, say they actually like the Leaders and Legends monikers.
We have a "faintest praise imaginable" winner. Men responsible for deciding to call something something admit—in public and everything!—that they like what they did. I bet 90% of the people who responded to the BTN's survey Strongly Agreed that "Leaders" and "Legends" were as good an idea as bringing Jim Bollman back to the Big Ten, but Morgan Burke probably likes that too.
Slight pessimism from Evanston. Rodger Sherman is not feeling the Wildcats' chances tonight. Reasons:
Even though Northwestern doesn't help heavily, Northwestern has a tendency of losing shooters: Hey, it's Nik Stauskas! Announcers like to mention that he's "not just a shooter!", because he sometimes does other stuff effectively, but that's like saying Rambo isn't "just an unkillable death machine" because he has lines of dialogue.
Northwestern's best defensive weapon is running the 1-3-1 to throw teams off: MICHIGAN RUNS THE 1-3-1 AND WILL DESTROY IT LIKE THE TASMANIAN DEVIL RUNNING THROUGH ONE OF THOSE BIGASS HAMS WITH THE BONE STICKING OUT OF IT. Even if they didn't run the 1-3-1 and know exactly what to do against it, they're one of the best teams in the nation at not turning the ball over and have a lot of guys who can shoot, so this would be an awful idea.
They do have Reggie Hearn tonight, and unlike last time the Michigan starter who's supposed to be out (Hardaway then, Morgan now) is actually going to be out. Even so, it's an extreme uphill battle that awaits them.
Power rankings. Luke Winn's latest power rankings have Michigan #1, leaping a Jayhawks team that had a close call against West Virginia, and focus on Trey Burke's jumpers off the dribble. Turns out he's good at basketball:
If Michigan wasn't the killer offensive team it is, the step-back twos that rubbed me the wrong way against Illinois might not be bad shots. 124 > 111, so they remain a little frustrating. Especially since there are threes going in at approximately the same rate as the twos mixed into the above chart that prop up the overall PPP.
If you've already run your offense and that's what you've got with five seconds on the clock, it's a great backup option. If you've got other avenues to try, like Nik Stauskas pick and rolls dumping in 1.6 PPP, you should try them.
When I rewatched the Illinois game it did seem that Burke adjusted more quickly than it felt live. He was robbed of a few assists by fouls, fumbles, and Jordan Morgan going down in a heap. Winn includes the step-back at the end of the first half as a GIF, which was both pretty and strategically a better idea than certain other shots since Michigan was holding for the last shot.
Other bits from Winn's power rankings:
- Tim Hardaway is the nation's second-most-efficient scorer in transition.
- Burke is ninth when it comes to transition possessions used per 40 minutes, which is pretty impressive given the pace Michigan plays at. I expect to see Arkansas's BJ Young at the top of that ranking; not so much the point guard for a team hovering in the mid-200s of pace rankings.
- Duke's defense has collapsed without Ryan Kelly.
- Somewhat indirectly: Winn mentioned a stat put together by TeamRankings that averages offensive and defensive rebounding together to get you an overall rebounding stat. Michigan is outside of the top ten, but only just, at 12th.
- #HotCaochTakes. Jeff Goodman assembles the always-entertaining anonymous opposing coach evaluation article on the Wolverines. Ace points out we have a Not Just A Shooter™ reference:
"Burke, but don't sleep on (Nik) Stauskas. He's not just a shooter. He much more than that. But Burke is the guy for them. You can't shut him down, but you need to find a way to slow him down."
The article is filled with lots of praise and some wishful thinking:
“They're not a very deep team. And if you take away their wide-open shots, and make them execute, that's when they'll struggle.”
“Try to get them in foul trouble. They don't want to have to think about picking up an early foul or two.”
The equivalent of telling someone you're going to stop the run when that run comes from Alabama: easier said than done. There's also a lot of stuff about how they are either tough enough or not as tough as last year. Winning ugly and that.
It is a concern, IME. Take that Nebraska game and make the opponent a Michigan State or a Wisconsin and I can see things going down to the wire.
Er. Nyet. GRIII is up to 18th on Chad Ford's NBA draft board. That's a rise from 25th and starting to get into that guaranteed-first-round area that gets scary. Ford still acknowledges he could benefit from another year:
Robinson is still scratching the surface as a basketball player. But his elite athletic ability (YouTube his 360 dunk versus Minnesota last week), rebounding ability and improved shooting touch all have scouts drooling. If teams are looking for a player who could be a home run down the road, Robinson could easily end up in the lottery. He's not ready yet, but all the pieces are there.
Hardaway doesn't show up in Ford's first round or his "next five in," FWIW.
Etc.: Top tailbacks seem to have two outcomes: great and headcase. I'll take those chances when the average NFL draft slot is a second-rounder. Kenpom continues crusade to have three-point defense recognized as pretty dang random. Michigan State is not their usual selves this year.
Hockey : (