eastern michigan

Formation notes: I usually don't try to determine what personnel the opponent has on the field because it's nearly impossible and the TV announcer men never tell you. So EMU may have just run the same sets of folks out there the whole game, I don't know. I do know that I dubbed this the "nickel" look:

The guy over the slot receiver there is in man. This would normally leave only six in the box but EMU would walk a safety up, as you can see. The "base 4-3" is basically this with the linebackers slid over and EMU in a two-deep shell. Why would Ron English do this against a high powered spread run offense? I don't know. Ask Armanti Edwards YES I'M STILL A LITTLE BITTER.

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M49	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Brown	30
This basically never happened last year no matter how much Michigan tried: this is an outside zone that gets outside the tackle. When that happens it's nice play by the tackle in question, so +1 for Huyge. Also excellent work by Molk(+1) to seal the playside DT—reach block—and Koger(+1) to crush the OLB to the playside. Brown has huge space, darts into the secondary, and is on his way to six points when a diving safety manages to trip him up from behind.
O21	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	Inc
With EMU not directly over the slots this is open, though there's a chance a crappy block by the outside WR ends this play near the LOS. We never find out, though, as Forcier throws it way high. (IN, 0, screen)
O21	2	10	Shotgun 2-back	0	2	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Brown	4
Ortmann(-1) fails to cut the backside DT and the playside guy is slanting really hard; Molk eventually does get a seal but it's too late for there to be a crease. The hard slant opened up a cutback lane and Schilling(+1) cut the MLB to ribbons, so Brown's got a lane he takes. The backside DT tackles from behind.
O17	3	6	Shotgun empty	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	QB draw	Forcier	-3
Eastern waiting for it, blitzing right into it. Forcier can't make the blitzer miss and loses three. Their rock, our scissors.
Drive Notes: FG(37), 3-0, 10 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M40	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read inside	Brown	6
Maybe? This could just be a quick read; I'm not great at differentiating inside and outside zone plays. Anyway, the backside DT gets playside of Ortmann but it doesn't matter much because EMU is not running a scrape exchange and the DE, pulled upfield, leaves a big cutback lane for Brown. He takes it, slashing upfield and into a couple of linebackers for a good gain. Help here from experts and laity requested.
M46	2	4	Shotgun empty	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Grady(19)	3
Hard-charging EMU corner forces Grady to cut it up inside of Webb, who does a good job blocking the guy. Grady's got a choice between slamming it upfield for a first down and not much more or trying to pop it outside for lots. He picks the latter and gets taken down; mistake on his part. (CA, 3, screen)
M49	3	1	I-Form covered twins	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Off tackle (Down G)	Brown	14
Oooh, look, a pulling guard. This is our version of that EMU play, I believe. EMU's playing this pretty soft, with both safeties relatively far back and the linebackers off the LOS. They are trying to slant inside and Michigan catches them with an off tackle play. Huyge(+2) gets an excellent downfield block and Webb(+1) seals away the slanting DL, leaving Grady and Schilling on the edge against one EMU player; Grady(+1) takes him out. Brown makes a quick cut upfield into lots of space. Huyge's block is really excellent.
O37	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	13
Michigan again gets outside the tackle, so give Ortmann +1 and another +1 for Molk, who sealed his guy on a reach. Second level blocks from Schilling and Ferrara are good; Huyge manages to push his guy past Minor as the trio comes together a few yards downfield and Minor runs through the traffic for another first down. First time I've seen Michigan get outside the tackles consistently in the RR era.
O24	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read inside	Minor	5
Virtual replay of the earlier Brown run where EMU slants hard to the playside, leaving a cutback lane because they're not scraping.
O19	2	5	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read inside	Minor	3
Here Molk(-1) gets blown back into the backfield as the playside DT gets an outstanding jump. Minor's forced to cut up way inside of where he wants to go, and the timing of the play is blown up. Only reason this isn't a bigger loss is that Michigan down-blocked with Ferrara and pulled Huyge around him to get to the second level, so there was no pursuing backside DT this time. Shows some faith in Huyge to expect him to be agile enough to make this block.
O16	3	2	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Rollout hitch	Grady(19)	11
Zone read fake with Schilling pulling out to provide some pass protection on Forcier's rollout. He delays the backside DE, giving Forcier time to zip an accurate bullet to Grady for eight or so plus a little YAC. (CA+, 3, protection 1/1)
O5	1	G	Shotgun 2-back	0	2	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Brown	-4
On Forcier, I think, as the EMU DE sells out on the stretch, as does the rest of the defense. A keeper has Forcier 1-on-1 with a linebacker and is either a touchdown or close to it. EMI has thrown eight guys at this and it's pretty well blown up; if I had to finger one blocker I think it's Ferrara(-1), who got blown back and allowed the backside pursuit to be relevant when Brown tried to cut back
O9	2	G	Ace 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Off tackle	Brown	9
Michigan might have gotten away with one as Huyge moves what looks like a fraction early. He downblocks the DT, blowing him off the ball (head start probably helped); the unblocked DE gets confused by a Grady end-around fake, opening up a lane for Brown that he runs straight up into, getting chopped down just as he crosses the goal line.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 10-3, 2 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M31	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	0	2	3	Base 4-3	Pass	PA Corner	Odoms	26
Michigan's trying to take advantage of the EMU linebacker on Odoms and running routes on him as he's in man coverage. This coverage is actually pretty good but Forcier lays it in there and Odoms makes a tough catch along the sideline. Excellent execution except maybe on the route. Odoms should be more open than this. (DO, 2, protection 1/1)
O43	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read keeper	Forcier	2
EMU shows cover one, so there are seven in the box. Forcier reads the crashing DE and pulls it and Huyge's out to block the WLB. Forcier doesn't read that aspect of the play and takes it too far outside. Slicing upfield immediately would have gotten him into the secondary one-on-one with a single safety; instead his outside angle allows the WLB to come around Huyge and tackle for little gain.
O41	2	8	???	?	?	?	?	Pass	Hitch?	Hemingway	7
Miss this entire play for a replay of the last one. Here's a guess from memory: (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O34	3	1	Ace	2	1	2	4-3 under	Run	Inside zone	Shaw	22
Poor job by Ferrara(-1) of sealing his guy to the outside; he just gets beat, which means the hole Schilling(+1) blew open by crushing the other DT is not open. Shaw(+2) cuts back into an unblocked safety, then makes him look stupid. Damn that kid is fast. Steps out, barely, or this is a touchdown.
O12	1	10	Ace	2	1	2	Base 4-3	Run	Inside zone	Shaw	7
Extremely aggressive by EMU, with nine guys in the box. A similar result to the last play except with all the guys jamming the LOS the lack of creases is understandable. Shaw again goes backside, picking up good blocks from Ortmann and one of the TEs—can't make out who—before the ninth guy, unblocked on the backside, tracks him down from behind.
O5	2	3	I-Form covered twins	1	2	2	4-3 under	Run	Down G	Shaw	5
Same play as the earlier I-form, with Schilling pulling around as everyone else blocks down. EMU SLB must be in man on Koger or something because he runs himself a couple steps inside when Koger blocks down, which just about takes him out of the play. Koger and Huyge crush the playside DE; Grady(+1) blasts the SLB, taking another linebacker out with him, and Schilling picks off a filling safety; Shaw into the endzone.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 17-10, 9 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M10	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone counter dive	Brown	90
You know this play, as it's been discussed in Picture Pages. Michigan runs it again, with Webb(+1) kicking out the DE, Schilling(+1) pancaking the DT, Ortmann and Molk(+1 each) getting solid second-level blocks on the EMU LBs. One EMU safety is charging to the line on a scrape exchange with the DE and the other one heads outside a bit in anticipation of a stretch. Maybe the latter guy recovers against Brandon Minor, but not against Brown. Woop. Gone.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 24-10, 7 min 2nd Q. OH NOES THE TIME OF POSSESSION. Robinson gets the next drive.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M13	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Throwback screen	Mathews	Inc
Great playcall that drags nine EMU defenders to Robinson's side and is one Schilling block on a safety from being six points. Robinson's throw is way outside and high though; instead of leading Mathews back inside where the corner can get walled off by Ortmann he throws a pass that's too high to catch and too outside for the corner to get blocked. (IN, 1, screen)
M13	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	QB draw	Robinson	11
EMU has adjusted and is now dedicating a player to the slot receiver and walking up a safety. Robinson reaction? Also why the hell couldn't English figure this out against Armanti Edwards? One thing English hasn't figured out: aggression. All three LBs sit back and wait for the play to come to them; easy double for Schilling and Molk gets the playside DT out of the picture and Shaw(+1) pops the MLB, springing Robinson into the secondary. Robinson impressively drives for an extra three or so yards. BONUS: WMU replay sees color guy compliment Robinson for—no foolies—having the “headiness to pick the ball up.”
M24	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read stretch	Shaw	-1
Mplk(-1) driven back by the DT and Ortmann(-1) also gives ground, forcing Shaw to cut it up into a linebacker who Schilling can't block because the players in the backfield have robbed him of his angle.
M23	2	11	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Rollout corner	Odoms	Inc
Man coverage on the receivers; Odoms gives a good shimmy to the inside, getting the corner to turn his hips and breaking himself open outside. Robinson lays it in excellently; Odoms bobbles it and on replay the play comes back. (CA+, 3, protection 1/1) Ugh. On replay, this is a dodgy overturn. It looks like Odoms secures the ball and still has a foot down. CONSPIRACY
M23	3	11	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Post	Odoms	Int
Live I thought this was a horrible decision; it's not. Odoms is two steps inside the defender and a step past him with no deep safety. If this ball is on the money it's a touchdown, but it's way short, undercut, and intercepted. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Interception, 24-10, 4 min 2nd Q. Well... if you want to look at the bright side, if Robinson ever completes a pass it'll go for huge yardage because the defense is freaking out about him.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M31	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	PA TE flat	--	-9
Ends in a sack as EMU is shooting a safety towards the line of scrimmage to cover the TE (was he the contain on a scrape?) and he's covered despite the man coverage that would normally see him burst open. Playside LB is charging hard, forcing Forcier to hold up and attempt to reverse field. He's surrounded and sacked. Interesting note: Brown was wide open on a wheel finishing his route here. Wonder if we see that added where Forcier pulls up on the rollout and hits that on a throwback. Forcier(-2) fumbles, BTW. (TA, 0, protection N/A)
M22	2	19	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone counter dive	Brown	14
Same play as the touchdown; this one is a great example of the scrape backer running himself out of the play and giving the tailback huge room. Safety takes a better angle this time and prevents another touchdown.
M36	3	5	Shotgun empty	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Webb	4
Either Webb's got to run this past the sticks or Forcier has to look at the guy on a hitch right next to him who's open for two more yards and a first down. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 24-17, 1 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Slant	Stonum	10
Our zone-read-bubble-fake-to-slant play, which gets Stonum open for a nice gain. Good timing, good catch. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M35	1	10	I-Form 3-wide	0	2	3	Nickel	Run	Zone counter dive	Brown	7
This is a modified form of the dive play that Brown took for 90 earlier with Grady(+1) functioning as the H-back and an end-around threat from Grady(er...) supposed to hold any potential scraper outside. This is M beating the EMU coaches, as the playside EMU DT is slanting away from the hole and gets blasted downfield by Schilling(+1). Good downfield blocks from Molk and Ortmann help; good safety fill holds this down somewhat.
M42	2	3	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Brown	3
Seven guys in the box and a blitzing corner—aggressive run D—to the stretch side. Molk(+1) manages to get his reach block on the playside DT; Brown has a hole to shoot up into but I think he's trying to take it outside the tackle, which has been closed off by the CB blitz, and he's a little late hitting it, allowing the crashing DE to tackle from behind. Momentum takes them forward and to the first down.
M45	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Tunnel screen	Mathews	Inc
Excellent play by the DE to the playside to avoid a cut from Huyge(-1) and leap in the passing lane, forcing Forcier to throw it high and uncatchable. Poor downfield block from Koger would have seen this blown up anyway. I'm filing this as a TA since it could have gone a lot worse and I'm giving Forcier the benefit of the doubt. (TA, 0, protection 0/1, Huyge)
M45	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Fly	Stonum	Inc
Great protection; Forcier loads up and tosses it to Stonum, who does have a step on his guy. Forcier leaves it short. I'm grabbing this just so people can maybe talk about Stonum's adjustment to this. I think it's poor. He misjudges the ball and doesn't slow up enough and turn, which would probably have led to the DB running him over and a PI call. Mike Floyd catches this, right? (MA, 1, protection 3/3)
M45	3	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Sack	--
EMU gets a delayed, looping blitz and drops into an effective zone on the short side, where Forcier's first read is. Neither the slant nor the wheel is open, so Forcier hesitates, at which point the blitzer is on him. Time to take the sack, and he does. (TA, 0, protection 1/3, team -2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 24-17, 13 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M47	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	0	2	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Shaw	-1
Molk(-1) gets blown back and into the running lane, forcing a cutback into the crashing DE and no gain. Bubble was open, FWIW.
M46	2	11	Shotgun 2-back	0	2	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read keeper	Forcier	3
Forcier pulls it out and runs into the scraping WLB near the LOS. He heads outside and manages to pick up a few.
M49	3	8	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Seam	Webb	Inc
Weird camera angle so I can't tell you much. Webb gets hit between the numbers, though, for easy first down yardage, and drops it. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 24-17, 10 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M40	1	10	Shotgun 2-back Twins	1	2	2	Base 4-3	Run	Inside zone	Brown	4
This is something different, with Michigan shooting the FB backside but apparently intending this to go more up the center, possibly into the A gap between C and G on the strongside. Schilling and Ortmann are doubling the backside DT but can get him to the ground and he dives over Schilling to tackle Brown; Brown could have taken this outside, maybe, but wasn't expecting the DT.
M44	2	6	Shotgun 2-back Twins	1	2	2	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Brown	3
Koger pushed too far back to take it outside; Molk gets a seal and Huyge/Ferrara scoop the playside DE; so Brown's got a crease. Lot of guys in a small area, though, and Huyge(-1) actually gets blown back on his attempt to block a LB downfield, so not much room.
M47	3	3	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	Scramble	Forcier	20
Excellent protection gives Forcier some time and then a lane to step up into when he can't find anyone open downfield. With EMU in man Forcier recognizes the tons of space and just takes off. (TA, NA, protection 2/2)
O33	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	7
Been wondering why they haven't gone to this a little more when EMU shows it's open. Here they do and Forcier takes the simple play. (CA, 3, screen) Good block from Stonum.
O26	2	3	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone counter dive	Shaw	18
Man, we're just gashing people on this all the time. Wonder how it will hold up during Big Ten play. Pretty much the same thing: TE pulls and blows out the crashing DE, line downblocks, and the scrape backer pulls himself out of position. Shaw zips into the secondary and puts a sick, sick move on the safety that doesn't result in a touchdown because the safety reaches out and manages to get a desperate handful of jersey. Robbed of a TD. I like that Shaw tries to juke these guys; seems like Brown and Minor just run into 'em.
O8	1	G	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Run	Zone read stretch	Shaw	0
Ortmann(-1) lets his guy way upfield and forces a cutback; Huyge couldn't do anything to impede the backside DT and he and the backside DT converge to tackle.
O8	2	G	I-Form 3-wide	2	0	3	Nickel	Penalty	False start	Schilling	Pen -5
Multiple guys move, actually.
O13	2	G	Shotgun 2-back	2	0	3	Nickel	Run	Reverse	Odoms	13
Odoms comes across the formation as M shows a speed option look. He gets the pitch. Backside guys are the DE, who is crashing and just gone, the WLB, who Savoy(+1) crushes, and two members of the secondary that Ortmann and Grady take care of. Odoms sets up his blocks well and cruises into the endzone.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 31-17, 4 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O21	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel	Pass	PA rollout	--	Inc
Zone read fake an a rollout on which Forcier is contained and needs to get rid of the ball. He's got a little out for at least four and maybe more if Grady(19) can beat the guy in man on him, but instead of throwing it he starts running around, eventually getting crushed as he attempts to throw it way. Filing this as a mild bad read. (BR, 0, protection NA)
O21	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone counter dive	Brown	8
Robinson in. Ferrara(+1) blasts the DT down the line, Webb(+1) again pops the crashing DL, and the linebackers 1) follow Webb in man, 2) attempt to scrape on Robinson, and 3) shuffle anticipating a stretch. Brown into the secondary; quick safety fill.
O13	3	2	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	QB draw	Robinson	13
Not sure if this is improvisation or misdirection as Brown shoots up towards the right side of the line, which draws some linebackers from that side but the hole opens up on the left; Robinson sees it and jets, moving too fast to be seen or caught. Good blocks from Molk(+1) and Schilling(+1) to open the crease.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 38-17, 3 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M5	1	10	Ace twins	2	1	2	4-3 under	Run	Inside zone	Shaw	5
Good read from Shaw as the backside DT slants too heavily and the DE to that side is sealed away; he hits it up. He should probably try to go between the linebackers, who both have blockers on them, but heads outside and is chopped down by CB pursuit.
M10	2	5	Ace	2	1	2	4-3 under	Run	Inside zone	Shaw	-2
Nowhere to go as both Schilling(-1) and Ferrara get banged back and Koger(-1) slips. Shaw runs into Schilling's back and goes down.
M12	3	7	Shotgun 2-back	1	2	2	4-3 under	Run	Pass	Fly	Mathews
Safe either get the first down or punt stuff. Borderline interference, way way worse than the Cissoko one, but not called. (CA, 0, protection 2/2). Actually, yeah, this is totally interference as the CB is riding Mathews to the sideline.
Drive Notes: Punt, 38-17, 8 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	TE	RB	WR	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O46	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	Zone stretch	Smith	10
DL again slants into the backfield, leaving Smith nowhere to go. Smith should get crushed by the backside DE but zips around him and to the outside where Robinson gets a block on an OLB and springs Smith for a good gain.
O36	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Base 4-3	Run	QB draw	Robinson	36
Weeeee. Double on the NT drives him back and blitzing linebackers attempt to fill both holes; Smith(+1) gets a pad-popping block on one and Robinson shoots into the secondary, where he is not caught because obviously.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 47-17, 7 min 4th Q. All backups for the rest of the game so charting stops here. Robinson's bomb is filed IN 0 and is at Roundtree. Here's Cox's run, though.

We kind of sucked, couldn't complete a forward pass, and still put up 45 points on an opponent. Woo spread 'n' shred?

Woo spread 'n' shred. The last time Michigan rushed for that many yards was the 2003 Houston game that preceded the 38-0 shellacking of Ty Willingham and ND that saw the student section chant "Houston's better" at the Irish, which latter point I bring up for no reason whatsoever. Remember this?

Before the Ohio State game I mentioned a remarkable statistic: in this year of safeties living in the box and injuries and a makeshift offensive line and just all-around disaster on offense, Michigan actually had a higher yards per carry than they did the year before.

!!!

It was close, though, and Ohio State stomped that. Michigan finished the year averaging 3.91 YPC. 2007 beat that out by six hundredths of a yard. Okay, that's still pretty remarkable. Here's a pop quiz: where does that YPC rank over the past eight years?

# Year YPC

1 2006 4.27

2 2003 4.25

3 2007 3.97

4 2008 3.91

5 2005 3.89

6 2004 3.83

7 2002 3.82

8 2001 3.59

Fourth! Above average!

#	Year	YPC
1	2006	4.27
2	2003	4.25
3	2007	3.97
4	2008	3.91
5	2005	3.89
6	2004	3.83
7	2002	3.82
8	2001	3.59

Through three games, Michigan is obliterating every mark on that list by more than a full two yards. They're currently cranking out 6.39 YPC. Yes, two of those games were against MAC opponents and the third was against the nation's #74 rush defense, one that would rank considerably worse if they were going by YPC, etc etc etc. And yes that number is going to come down precipitously as Michigan churns through Big Ten play.

But the question here isn't "will this be Michigan's best rushing offense of the decade?" It's "by how much will this be Michigan's best rushing offense of the decade?" Here's another handy—

Chart?

—chart I put together for Hail To the Victors 2008 comparing the rushing offenses of West Virginia, Northwestern, and Michigan over the same timespan:

Year	West Virginia		Northwestern		Michigan
Year	YPC	Nat'l Rank	YPC	Nat'l Rank	YPC	Nat'l Rank
2001	4.19	36th	4.1	45th	3.59	78th
2002	5.16	8th	4.31	39th	3.82	66th
2003	4.6	19th	4.65	18th	4.25	44th
2004	5.14	9th	4.64	26th	3.83	68th
2005	5.23	11th	5.03	14th	3.89	57th
2006	6.68	1st	4.04	52nd	4.27	42nd
2007	6.15	1st	3.61	85th	3.97	61st

Northwestern ran the exact same offense Rodriguez did and crushed Michigan in YPC every year until Randy Walker's untimely death and Northwestern's ensuing descent into disarray. Four of Northwestern's seven marks on this list would be Michigan's best rushing year in the 21st century, and they never had the luxury of playing their own generally-horrible defense. Leap. This is it. The leap.

Okay, woo spread 'n' shred is stipulated. But how, exactly, is Michigan doing this?

I've beaten one aspect into the ground over the first month of the season: Michigan has devised a suite of highly effective counters to the scrape exchange that exploit the opponent's over-reaction to the frontside and backside of the play to gash defenses not quite right up the middle but slightly to the left or right of the middle.

The other bits are an extension of what was happening at the tail end of last year, when Michigan's run game went from abysmal against Not Notre Dame to above average. The line learned their assignments better and stopped being such a sieve. Brandon Minor RAGED his way into the starting lineup and blasted through tackles instead of meekly submitting to them. The quarterbacks… uh… were the quarterbacks. So this year you've got a pair of senior tailbacks and and improved, non-gimpy version of Mike Shaw. You've got a line of veterans, though Molk's injury will provide some drag over the next 4-6 weeks. And you've got a pair of quarterbacks who either add to the YPC themselves (Robinson) or force opposing defenses to stop selling out against the run (Forcier). A reminder: over the second half of last year Michigan's rushing offense was about 30th nationally. The leap up to third is a fluke of scheduling and fortune, but once it settles down in the 10-20 range it's likely to stay there.

Surely you have more charts?

Charts, but they're not very useful since all the offensive charts focus on the passing game.

(Hennechart again; MA is "marginal", screen results are in parens.)

TATE FORCIER

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
Western Michigan	2	14	1	2	1	2	-	3
Notre Dame	5	20 (6)	2	4	3	3	-	4
Eastern Michigan	1	8 (2)	1	1 (1)	1	4 (1)	-	-

DENARD ROBINSON

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
Western Michigan	-	1	1	1	2	-	-	-
Eastern Michigan	-	1	1 (1)	2 (1)	-	-	-	-

Forcier was just 7 of 13 for 68 yards but his chart isn't too bad. Our Downfield Success Rate is 7 / 11 = 64%, which is about on par with what he's been doing so far, and one of those TAs (throwaways) was actually a 20-yard scramble. Forcier did zing a screen high, though.

Robinson… well. I don't actually think he made any bad decisions, he just made bad throws. On both of his interceptions he had guys running open downfield and left the ball way, way short. And he did mess up a tunnel screen throw that would have been vast yardage if he'd gotten it right. And the did lay a pretty pass in to Martavious Odoms only to see Odoms juggle it and (eventually) drop it. But I am searching for a bunch of excuses for an 0/4 2 INT day.

Receiverchart:

	This Game				Totals
Player	0	1	2	3	0	1	2	3
Hemingway	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4/4
Mathews	2	0/1	-	1/1	4	1/4	1/1	6/6
Stonum	-	0/1	-	1/1	1	0//1	1/2	4/4
Savoy	-	-	-	-	1	-	0/1	2/2
Odoms	2	-	1/1	1/2	3	1/1	1/1	5/6
Grady-19	-	-	-	2/2	2	-	1/1	5/6
Roundtree	1	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
Rogers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Koger	-	-	-	-	-	1/1	1/1	5/5
Webb	-	-	-	1/2	1	-	-	1/2

Minor	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Brown	-	-	-	-	-	1/2	1/1	3/3
Shaw	-	-	-	-	-	-	0/1	-
Smith	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Moundros	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

This was a less than great day from the receivers, as in limited opportunities two balls got filed as straight drops: the corner route to Odoms that was overturned on review (I still think he actually caught it but it's really close and result-based charting) and the seam to Webb that hit him between the numbers.

Also, let's talk about Darryl Stonum, deep threat. I mentioned this in the play minutiae most of you don't read so let me replicate it here:

Okay, Forcier left this short and Stonum had a step or step and a half on a guy that can't press him. But from above:

I'm grabbing this just so people can maybe talk about Stonum's adjustment to this. I think it's poor. He misjudges the ball and doesn't slow up enough and turn, which would probably have led to the DB running him over and a PI call. Mike Floyd [or Braylon Edwards] catches this, right?

Even if there's no catch, Stonum should at least give himself an opportunity to get both hands on it. And then there's this from the Notre Dame game:

Stonum is running a fly down the sideline with a guy sort of in tow and plenty of room to the sideline and Forcier gets it to him. Stonum turns inside and ends up doing a 360 on a ball that was perfectly placed to the outside. He turns a very catchable ball into a circus attempt. It was open.

Unfortunately, I didn't get a clip of this; it was worse than the above. Stonum's got speed to burn and a great frame, so what's preventing him from being Michael Floyd is the stuff you see above. Floyd is huge, great at adjusting to a ball in flight, and brilliant at using his body as an asset. Same with Braylon Edwards. Mario Manningham was probably the best I'd ever seen at it; he was as good as those guys without having their height. Stonum doesn't have it, at least not yet. I don't know if that's talent or coaching or a combination of both. Junior Hemingway seems pretty good at it. Could just be a thing you've got or you don't. If Steve Breaston had it he would have won the Heisman.

Anyway, that's why I think Stonum is behind where you'd expect he'd be given his recruiting profile.

Offensive line whatnot?

The most useless protection metric ever:

PROTECTION METRIC: 17/20, Huyge –1, Team –2.

Nothing to see here.

Heroes?

Pick a tailback, any tailback, and an offensive lineman, any offensive lineman.

Goats?

Well, you know… made of dilithium and all but Denard Robinson did throw two interceptions.

What does it mean for Indiana and the future?

The Hoosier's run defense is currently #15 nationally but it's hard to tell how legit that is when the opening opponents are Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan, and Akron. Given that we're talking about Indiana, the answer is probably "not particularly legit." Michigan wants to continue the pounding ground game against the Hoosiers without showing more of their hand, and you'd imagine they'll be able to. Not to the tune of 10 YPC or even the 7.6 Michigan got outside of the third-longest run in Michigan history, but 5-6-7 in a game where Michigan hopes to spend the second half running out the clock would be fine.

We did get further indication that Denard Robinson is not a suitable replacement for Tate Forcier at the moment, though I figure at this point he's got to be above Sheridan just because I've seen him move.

John Ferrara did pretty well in his first start of the year, though it was against weak competition. The dropoff from the starting line to the Molk-free line might not be too severe. (Though I am pumped to hear Rodriguez describe Molk as not only one of the team's best linemen but "one of the team's best players" when discussing his injury. I lived in moderate fear that the insider reports about Khoury pushing Molk were anywhere near accurate, which would have been a black eye given the David Molk Hype Machine that lives in my keyboard. Then I am not pumped because Molk is out for a month.)

Farther down the road, Michigan looks in excellent shape next year at tailback, where all three backups performed well. Shaw was especially impressive; you could tell that all the stuff about being slowed by a sports hernia was no BS. Guy looked Brown fast. Maybe even faster. Smith and Cox had impressive runs as well, and Fitzgerald Toussaint's highlight tape from high school is a 0.8 McGuffie.

Personnel notes: Michigan didn't change much at all from the Notre Dame game. Leach played basically the whole game for Mouton. Kovacs again got the fourth quarter when Mike Williams tweaked his ankle. Substitution on the DL continued as before. The only difference is that JB Fitzgerald did get in some as a replacement for Leach or Ezeh.

Michigan did debut a couple of new looks in this game, as described by Steve Sharik earlier this week. One was a pure 3-3-5 look that could have come right out of the West Virginia salad days; the deathbacker played as a MLB. The other was an aggressive eight-man front run defense Sharik calls "split" that M ran against a lot of their ace sets. I noted the 3-3-5 stack somewhat but not the split, which looked like an under to me. I'll work on it for next week. If Robinson stops adding packages I'll eventually be able to ID them consistently.

BTW: This completes Michigan's collection of fronts: They've run even and under 4-3 fronts, a 3-4, and the 3-3-5. Robinson was not kidding about "multiple fronts." The under is still the base, though.

Steve also talked about the "Down G" play that EMU ran a lot. The basic principle here is much like the basic principle was against Michigan State's power ground game the past two years: you are an unblocked DE; there is a guard pulling around who wants to kick you out and open up a crease inside you. You have to get into the guard and make the tailback bounce it outside, where a linebacker will pursue and clean up.

BONUS! In my never-ending quest to make UFR more complicated every year I've added a third defensive metric: tackling. Missed tackles get minuses, as do routine tackles on which the ballcarrier picks up YAC. Open field tackles, tough tackles, and tackles where the guy goes down right where he's hit get pluses. It's very experimental.

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O20	1	10	Ace trips	4-3 under	Run	Zone stretch right	Van Bergen	9
Michigan in a two-deep shell and in man over the WRs so this is six blockers on six defenders even without the QB counting. RVB(-1) gets doubled momentarily and falls to the ground, opening up a lane, and Ezeh(-1) is tentative, which gives the OL sliding to the second level an angle; Ezeh attempts to go around him and takes himself out of the play. RB jets to the second level. Good open field tackle(+1) from Williams(+0.5).
O29	2	1	Ace	Base 4-3	Run	Zone stretch right	Williams	0
Eight-man front from M with press man free on the outside. Williams(+1) times a blitz well and shoots into the playside OT before he can peel off Martin, knocking the OL back and erasing any potential lanes. On the bounce, Graham(+0.5) cleans up.
O29	3	1	Ace	4-3 under	Run	Zone stretch left	Martin	2
Martin(+0.5), slanting, slips past a momentary block from the center and avoids getting scooped, which along with a quick reaction from Ezeh forces a cutback. RVB is flowing down the line behind Martin & Co and makes a good tackle(+1), but momentum carries the back forward for the first.
O31	1	10	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Fly	Graham	Inc
Williams rolled up and press man on the outside again; EMU attempts to test it. M blitzes Williams, drawing the OT, and a RB has to attempt to cut Graham(+0.5, pressure +1), who dives over the cut and gets into Schmitt a bit, causing him to shorten his follow-through. Receiver has a step on Cissoko (-1, cover -1) and room to the sideline, but it's overthrown.
O31	2	10	Ace Twin TE	4-3 under	Run	Power off tackle	Martin	-3
Tackle blocks down on RVB(-1), blowing him out immediately, and the guard to that side pulls around as EMU tries to attack the gap between RVB and Roh. No dice though as Martin(+2) shoots into the intended hole, forcing a bounce into Roh(+1), who's held up well and drives his man back. The bounce takes a circuitous route, allowing Brown(+0.5) to read everything and come up to make a solid, no-YAC tackle(+1).
O28	3	13	Shotgun 2-back	3-3-5-ish	Pass	Screen	--	Inc
Graham(+1, pressure +1) comes around the corner too fast for this screen to develop properly and forces Schmitt to throw it inaccurately. Looked like Brown and Leach had this well sniffed out. (Cover +1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 12 min 1st Q. This drive is actually pretty solid, with one bad play followed by five good ones that saw Michigan defeat Eastern instead of Eastern defeat itself.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	Zone stretch right	Van Bergen	-3
Eight man front. Michigan slanting into the play here, which gets Van Bergen(+1) and Martin(+1) deep into the backfield directly in the RB's intended path. Surrounded, he's got no choice but to end up in RVB's arms. (Tackling +1) Martin twists an ankle and is replaced by Sagesse.
O22	2	13	Ace 3-wide	3-3-5-ish	Pass	Hitch	Ezeh	10
Six yard hitch Ezeh(-1) is about four yards off of when it's thrown, allowing the TE to turn it upfield and pick up four more. (Cover -1)
O32	3	3	Shotgun 2-back	4-3 under	Pass	Slant	Ezeh	2
Ezeh(+1) reads Schmitt's eyes and immediately takes off for the slant, arriving in time to tackle(+1) short of the sticks. (Cover +1) Very decisive here.
O34	4	1	Ace	4-3 under	Run	Dive	Sagesse	22
Michigan still getting into alignment as the ball is snapped, which seems like poor planning since the snap comes with two seconds on the clock. Eight man front with press man and big spreads between the DL; Michigan is coming after it. Sagesse(-1) steps inside and gets sealed. This cedes a big crease with help from similarly creased Brown(-1). No linebacker help since everyone's selling out on fourth and one, and the RB is into the secondary immediately. Woolfolk takes a good angle and comes up to tackle after about ten, but misses it (-1, tackling -1), giving up another ten before Warren can haul him down.
M44	1	10	Ace	4-3 under	Pass	Fly	Cissoko	Inc (Pen +15)
Eight man front. Can't say M's not being aggressive here, though on this play the corners have backed off. You've seen this before. Cissoko(+1, cover +1) is running this guy's route and gets called for the world's worst PI. Roh was working his way to the QB, FWIW. Not plus-warranting but pressure was coming.
M29	1	10	Ace	3-3-5-ish	Run	Zone stretch right	Sagesse	-1
Sagesse(+2) shoots past the center's block and slants past the attempted scoop from the backside guard, jetting into the backfield and forcing the RB outside. With help from Roh(+1, tackling +1), Michigan picks up a TFL.
M30	2	11	Ace 3-wide	3-3-5-ish	Pass	Hitch	Cissoko	9
Michigan sends three rushers against max protect so there are eight zone defenders and only three guys in patterns and there's still a wide open hitch five yards downfield that Cissoko is five yards away from at the catch. I usually don't give out personal negatives on zone coverage I can't see but here's a stern look (cover -1).
M21	3	2	Ace Big	3-3-5-ish	Run	Zone stretch right	Sagesse	-4
Slightly less impressive on replay than it was live because it's revealed that Sagesse was basically let into the backfield unmolested, as he's lined up in a zero tech (directly over the center) and slants right into the play. It's a good angle and he makes an excellent tackle(+1) so here's a +1. Graham(+1) also burst through so this was truly going nowhere.
Drive Notes: FG(42), 3-3, 5 min 1st Q. Not bothered by this drive, which was basically a couple of sloppy zone coverages, a gamble EMU won and M lost, and the world's worst PI call. Note that Michigan's running a lot of their 30 front and slanting directly into the stretch plays. This is progress from last week, when M had to discard the stretches because the angles were poor, and I'm betting is an adjustment EMU will make after this drive to open up their run game.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O21	1	10	Ace	Base 4-3	Run	Down G	Banks	2
Pulling guards and whatnot, a very Dantonio/Carr play. Michigan stunts, shooting Banks(+1) into the backfield and forcing the back away from the hole. Herron(+1 tackling) cleans up on the cutback.
O23	2	8	Ace	3-3-5-ish	Pass	PA TE flat	Warren	2
Graham is unblocked and flies upfield at Schmitt after he diagnoses the play action, hypothetically opening up the TE flat sort of play that got Koger a big gainer last week but M is in cover two and Warren(+1, cover +1, tackle +1) reads it well and pops the guy as he makes the catch.
O25	3	6	Shotgun 2-back	Base 3-4	Run	Zone read keeper	Brown	13
Brown(-2) overplays the zone fake badly and loses contain, opening up huge space for a first down. Worse: this is the backup FR QB, so obviously the run is a preferred option. Very poor.
O38	1	10	Ace 3-wide	3-3-5-ish	Run	Inside Zone	Martin	2
EMU finally tries to run right at this three-man line. Leach(+0.5) kind of sort of cuts off an outside hole, which causes a cutback into a doubled Martin(+2), except Martin's shucked his blockers and tackles(+1) at the LOS.
O40	2	8	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	PA Cross	Leach	7
Play action with a rollout and this is on Leach(-1, cover -1) for vacating his zone and aimlessly running forward to contain a rollout Banks(+0.5) has covered.
O47	3	1	Ace tight	4-3 under	Run	Dive	--	4
Fully ten guys in the box as EMU lines up in a tight set with both wideouts acting as quasi-TEs. They run right at a sizeable gap between Martin and Graham that Leach(-0.5) doesn't attack fast enough. Looks misaligned or mis-called or something because this didn't seem like a defense likely to prevent a quick burst up the middle.
M49	1	10	Ace	3-3-5-ish	Pass	PA rollout scramble	Ezeh	24
Man, I don't know what the hell Ezeh(-2) is doing on this. Okay, I do: he's way over-reacting to where Schmitt's looking downfield. He takes himself so far out of his zone that he can reach out and touch Herron, opening up acres of space for Schmitt to either dump off to the running back or take off; he chooses to take off, getting huge yardage. (Cover -2, pressure -1)
M25	1	10	Ace	4-3 under	Run	Counter pitch	Heininger	0
Yeah, this is a counter, with an H-back pulling backside to block the defensive end as you've seen in Picture Pages frequently. Heininger(+1) reads it, gets into his blocker, and pushes him upfield, necessitating a cutback. Martin(+1) gets blown back by a double team before shucking his guy, reading, hopping to the LOS, and tackling.
M25	2	10	Ace	Base 4-3	Run	Off tackle	Martin	10
Eight man front. Can't blame Ezeh on this one, as he reads and fills and probably had this snuffed out for little or no gain except for a cutback from the tailback that's open because Martin(-1) got chopped. Leach(-1) failed to read the play and got hooked by a downfield OL, leaving him out of position to deal with this slow-developing play and getting EMU's tailback into the secondary.
M15	1	10	Ace	4-3 under	Run	Down G	Graham	4
Trap blocking on this; Graham(-1) comes in unblocked but fails to read the pulling guard and doesn't get under him to spill the play outside. RB shoots untouched through the line where Leach(+0.5) makes a solid tackle(+1). This could be on Ezeh, actually... depends on what was called. He was heading outside, though, so I think Graham has to spill the play.
M11	2	6	Ace tight	4-3 under	Run	Zone read keeper	Graham	11
Well, one: Graham(-2) irresponsibly charges after the tailback, opening up the QB keeper. Weird how this basic zone read defense step is one we can't get right. And two: JB Fitzgerald(-2) makes just an epically bad read, fighting to the inside of his blocker two seconds after everyone else on the defense is chasing the QB.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 10-10, 11 min 2nd Q. I'm actually way less bothered by this drive than I thought I'd be. It's basically four dumb plays, two on QB contain, two on boneheaded zone drops, and not any sort of EMU-blowing-M-off-ball sort of thing.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O27	1	10	Ace trips bunch	4-3 under	Run	Down G X 2	Roh	2
EMU pulls two linemen around to the outside but the tailback just shoots straight upfield. Miscommunication? Roh(+0.5) charges from the backside to tackle; Graham(+0.5) had read the play and helped out, too. (Tackling +1)
O29	2	8	Ace	4-3 under	Run	Dive	RVB	4
Running right at the gap between Martin and RVB; RVB (-0.5) gets trapped and creased; can't spill the play outside. Ezeh(+0.5) reacted swiftly, though he wasn't blocked, to tackle in the hole.
O33	3	4	Shotgun 2-back	3-3-5-ish	Run	Triple option dive	Ezeh	1
I don't know if this is good play or bad from Ezeh since there's a triple option going on outside and the only contain is Brown; this is probably not assignment football. But he's right, and results based charting and all that. Here he attacks the dive aggressively(+1), getting into the RB's feet and helping Graham(+0.5) pursue to the ball and stop EMU short of the first down.
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-10, 7 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O25	1	10	Ace tight	4-3 under	Pass	PA Sack	Roh	-5
Roh(+1) is unblocked on the backside, reads the play, and tackles(+1) as soon as the QB turns around to survey downfield. Excellent read and good job to keep under control to make the sack. (Pressure +2)
O20	2	15	Shotgun empty 2TE	30 front	Pass	Hitch	Warren	13
This is a whatever hitch for five yards if Warren(-1) makes a tackle(-1); he does not. Receiver spins around and picks up eight more because of the error.
O33	3	2	Ace	4-3 under	Pass	Hitch	Warren	Inc
Warren(-0.5) one on one with the WR; turns his hips and gets beaten by a little hitch route just past the sticks (cover -1). Ball is dropped.
Drive Notes: Punt, 24-10, 5 min 2nd Q. Rough couple plays from Warren there.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M36	1	10	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Run	Down G	Fitzgerald	11
Well... dammit. They've stuck JB Fitzgerald in the game and it's clear why he doesn't get more playing time. Herron(+0.5) gets into a pulling guard early enough to close off any potential off tackle crease, spilling the play outside where Fitzgerald(-2) should be there to clean up. He's come down inside and run himself out of position so he can't make what should be a TFL. The play springs outside for first down yardage.
M25	1	10	Ace Big	3-3-5 stack	Run	Counter off tackle	Leach	9
They run a counter, pulling a guard across; Banks(+0.5) again gets into him and spills the play but Leach(-2) has gone into a pass drop already and is eight yards downfield before he realizes this was a bad idea. He runs around some blocks; Ezeh(+0.5) is the WLB here and runs from the backside to tackle. Good athleticism there from Ezeh.
M16	2	1	Ace Big	4-3 under	Run	Zone stretch right		4
Pretty good job by Sagesse(+0.5) and Banks(+0.5) to hold up against blockers and force a cutback, but there's no one on the backside to clean up because Williams(-1) got clocked. Cissoko cleans up.
M12	1	10	Ace Big	4-3 under	Run	Counter off tackle	Williams	6
Michigan cramming the box now; Banks(-0.5) blown off the ball by a double team and Herron(-0.5) sets up too far outside to squeeze the hole and spill the play. Still, Williams(-1) is sitting unblocked in the hole and fails to tackle(-1) at the LOS, turning this from like two into five. Michigan TO.
M6	2	4	Ace	4-3 under	Run	Down G	Leach	2
Slight variant here with EMU blocking down on the DE and bringing one guard around into two linebackers. Leach(+1) reads the play and attacks it, closing in at the LOS and tackling(+1) with help from Ezeh. Michigan TO.
M4	3	2	Ace Big	4-3 under	Run	Off tackle	Williams	4
This is just tough when they line up two TEs to one side of the line and the three guys you've got over there are Roh, Williams, and Cissoko. Roh(-1) gets doubled and blown back; Williams(-1) gets crushed into the endzone, which prevents any chance of LBs flowing over. M should have been in a goal line set here. Error by Robinson.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 24-17, 2 min 2nd Q. Note the timeouts! Rodriguez has played enough XBox 360 to understand when he can get an extra possession out of the first half. Can you imagine Carr taking these? There is one run play before halftime but it's academic and not charted.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O12	1	10	Ace trips	30 front	Run	Dive	Williams	6
Williams(-1) is half-rolled up and fills on this simple dive play; a solid tackle means this is like three yards (Leach(-0.5) crushed out of the hole by a G), but Williams lets the guy spin through (tackling -1) and pick up extra.
O18	2	4	Ace Twin TE	4-3 under	Run	Inside Zone	Graham	-1
Graham(+2) blows through his guy and crushes the play in the backfield with help from unblocked Roh(+0.5) on the backside. (Tackling +1)
O17	3	5	Shotgun 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Hitch	Warren	Inc
Warren(+1) reacts considerably more rapidly to this hitch than the last one and appears to get a hand on a poorly thrown ball breaking it up (cover +1). Effective blitz got a couple edge guys in (pressure +1) and may have contributed to a hurried throw.
Drive Notes: Punt, 24-17, 11 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O9	1	10	Ace Twins	4-3 under	Run	Off tackle	Ezeh	3
Michigan slanting away from this so a little fortunate to hold this down. Only one player to the second level, who takes out Leach; Ezeh(+1, tackling +1) has a free flow to the POA which, to his credit, he attacks swiftly and makes a solid tackle at.
O12	2	7	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	TE cross	Herron	5
I'm not sure what they're running here as it looks like man with Ezeh dropping into some sort of zone and Leach freaking out and attacking the LOS once the RB sets up to block a blitzing Williams. Fire blitz? Herron's in man on the TE, close enough to force a tough throw and no YAC, which is a win, I think. +1 for him, but not on the cover.
O17	3	2	Ace Big	4-3 under	Run	Dive	Williams	-2
Williams(+1) times a blitz well and shoots into the backfield, keeping under control and snuffing this out in the backfield with help from Martin(+1), who just crushed his guy, and Ezeh(+1) who aggressively sought the play out and cut through trash to make this a party in the backfield.
Drive Notes: Punt, 24-17, 7 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O20	1	10	Ace Twins	30 front	Pass	PA TE cross	--	Inc
EMU finally goes to a bootleg and gets Schmitt on the edge. Ezeh comes up to contain but not quickly so Schmitt has time to find the TE running open for a decent gain. Poor throw and an incompletion. (Cover -1)
O20	2	10	Ace 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	PA Hitch	Warren	4
Martin(+0.5) and Roh(+0.5) are busting through the line to force a quick throw (pressure +1) on a hitch; Warren(+0.5) tackles(+1) immediately.
O24	3	6	Shotgun 3-wide 2TE	4-3 under	Pass	Deflection	Ezeh	Int
Michigan sends a zone blitz, getting Ezeh(+1) in unblocked. He leaps in the throwing lane and bats the ball skyward, directly to Roh(+1), who brings it in for an INT. (Pressure +1)
Drive Notes: Interception, 31-17, 3 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O40	1	10	???	???	Pass	???	???	9
We totally miss this play. Arbitrary cover -1.
O49	2	1	Ace Big	4-3 under	Pass	PA Fly	Warren	Inc
Going for the home run with an almost-free play. Warren(+2) runs the guy's route for him(cover +2) and this has no chance of success. FLAG? Lol jk no.
O49	3	1	Ace Twins	4-3 under	Run	Down G	Roh	3
Kovacs is in the game for Williams, BTW, and will play the rest of the game. EMU goes back to their down G play, running right at Roh. Roh(-1) is in good position to squeeze the gap and force a bounce but basically gets run over by the G, which provides enough crease for the first. Should go low here, I think.
M48	1	10	Ace Twins	4-3 under	Pass	PA Fly	Banks	Inc
Banks(+1) blows through the line on a slant, getting hooked and drawing a holding flag. Schmitt flushes from the pocket and chucks it deep to a double-covered WR, who falls. Woolfolk almost intercepts. (Cover +1, pressure +1)
O42	1	20	Shotgun 2-back	30 front	Pass	Screen	Ezeh	9
Only rush four but playing man behind it so Ezeh is the only one looking at the tailback here and he's got a tough job against two OL. I guess you can ding him for reacting slowly(-0.5). He does force the play inside, where it dies after a good gain.
O49	2	11	Shotgun 2-back	4-3 under	Pass	Hitch	Graham	6
Graham(+1) bursts around the corner (pressure +1), forcing a quick throw. It's open in zone; Brown and Warren tackle(+1) immediately.
M45	3	6	Shotgun empty 2TE	4-3 under	Pass	Hitch	Woolfolk	13
Brown gets a free release on a blitz as Michigan goes man with no safeties; Woolfolk is playing off (cover -1) a bit and Schmitt makes a good throw for the first. Woolfolk(-0.5) then struggles to tackle(-1), providing another three or four.
M32	1	10	Ace Big	4-3 under	Pass	Flare	Lynch	9
Little flare screen on the edge sees Kovacs(-1) and Leach(-1) both get engaged by blockers who drive them off the screen and entirely out of the play. Cissoko has no help and all he can do is delay the RB and wait for help to arrive downfield. (Cover -1)
M23	2	1	Ace Twins	4-3 under	Run	Down G	Kovacs	0
Kovacs rolled up. He attacks the pulling guard, standing him up and delaying the back. He tries to bounce outside, where Lynch is, and eventually just runs up into Kovacs(+1) for a loss.
M23	3	1	Ace Big	4-3 under	Run	Inside Zone	Martin	3
Martin(-0.5) gives a yard or two, as does Ezeh, but that's not really his fault, and there's enough of a push up front to get the first.
M20	1	10	Ace 3-wide	3-3-5 stack	Run	End around	Brown	5
Not sure who's got the contain here but it's either Brown(-0.5) or Graham, and I think it's probably Brown's late reaction that barely opens the corner here for an okay gain.
M15	2	5	Ace Twins	4-3 under	Penalty	False Start	--	Pen -5
Oops.
M20	2	10	Ace Twins	4-3 under	Run	Down G X 2	Brown	11
Variant of the down G here that's supposed to get outside the tackle. TE downblocks on Roh and the T and G both pull around into Brown(-1) who gets planted as you might imagine a safety playing LB would, and the play heads outside with ease. Ezeh(-1) also misreads the play and runs himself into a block.
M9	1	G	Ace Twin TE	4-3 under	Pass	PA rollout	--	5
Zone stretch fake into a rollout that finds no one despite(cover +2) no pressure(-1) for a long time. Schmitt is able to cut it up for a few yards.
M5	2	G	Ace	4-3 under	Run	Off tackle 2	Warren	2
Same play that just got 11 yards with a bonus blocker as one of the WRs motions in. So close to the goal line the secondary is active, though. One of the pulling blockers is picked off by Graham(+0.5) getting some penetration. Woolfolk pops up under the last guy, forcing a bounce into Warren(+0.5) who tackles well but does allow the guy to fall forward.
M3	3	G	Goal line	Goal line	Run	Down G	Brown	-2
Wing blitzes from Kovacs(+1) and Brown(+1) jet past blockers and the two meet the RB in the backfield for a TFL.
M5	4	G	Ace	4-3 under	Pass	Fade stop	Cissoko	Inc
Receiver does get Cissoko to bite on a fade by turning his head inside, then whipping around to get open at the start of the endzone but can't keep his feet and the throw isn't perfect so it's incomplete. (Cover -1)
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 38-17, 9 min 4th Q. Jeez that was a long, uncomfortable drive. More on it later.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M47	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	3-3-5 stack	Pass	Sack	--	--
The ugly play where Schmitt tears his ACL for no reason.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 38-17, 7 min 4th Q.
O14	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	4-3 under	Run	Triple option keeper	Roh	3
Roh(+1) is unblocked, reads the dive fake, and comes out to tackle the QB by himself. Athletic move there; this is not a guy you want to read, I don't think.
O17	2	7	Shotgun 3-wide	4-3 under	Pass	Hitch	Graham	Inc
Graham(+1) is in the passing lane and bats it down. (Pressure +1)
O17	3	7	Shotgun 2-back	4-3 under	Pass	Screen	Leach	7
Leach(-1) drops in his zone, reads it slowly, and can't recover to tackle. (Cover -1)
O24	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	4-3 under	Pass	Scramble	--	5
No one open (cover +1); decent pressure flushes the QB and he scrambles for a few.
O29	2	5	Shotgun 2-back	30 front	Run	Zone read keeper	Fitzgerald	14
Fitzgerald's(-1) the guy with the QB, but reacts slowly, takes a block, and gets cut behind as the QB cuts it up.
O43	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	30 front	Pass	Hitch	--	Inc
Wildly inaccurate for no particular reason.
O43	2	10	Shotgun 2-back	4-3 under	Pass	Scramble	--	5
Replay of the scramble earlier in the drive (Cover +1)
O48	3	5	Shotgun 2-back	3-4 Base	Run	Triple option dive	Banks	1
Banks(+1) shucks a blocker and delivers a thumping tackle.
Drive Notes: Punt, 45-17, 4 min 4th Q. Charting ceases as the second team is put in for the rest of the game.

So that was concerning, wasn't it?

Slightly, yes, but after looking at the tape I'm more encouraged than I was immediately after the game.

How can that be?

To explain that I think I need a—

Chart?

Defensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Graham	10.5	3	7.5	Very little opportunity to get after the quarterback. Was good against the run, though he was one of the people responsible for Schmitt's touchdown run.
Heininger	1	-	1	Made one nice play.
Patterson	-	-	-	Scrub time only I think.
Roh	6.5	3	3.5	A couple of nice plays when EMU put him on the edge and tried to fool or read him. Athleticism should be an asset against zone read teams.
Herron	1.5	.5	1	Eh, ok.
Martin	7	1.5	5.5	Much better job getting off blocks this week and more active; this is probably because of the competition. Still, he's promising. Probably needs another year before he's truly an anchor.
Van Bergen	1	2.5	-1.5	Not holding up very well against doubles.
Banks	4.5	.5	4	Rodriguez mentioned he'd been playing well last week and he did make some plays here.
Sagesse	3.5	1	2.5	Big fourth down stop was a gift but made some other plays. Needs more PT.
TOTAL	31	11.5	19.5	Nice number, so the rushing yards were on…
Linebacker
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Ezeh	6	5.5	0.5	Well, at least it's positive.
Mouton	-	-	-	DNP.
Brown	1.5	4.5	-3	Blew a zone read contain for some of his minus points, and got blasted back by guys 60 pounds heavier than he is on some others. Didn't think he played that bad.
Fitzgerald	-	5	-5	Yipes. Huge missed reads for all five negative points. Looked lost. Athletic, but lost.
Leach	2	7	-5	Didn't make any of his tackles near the LOS, did the Mouton thing where you go into a pass drop on a run play.
TOTAL	9.5	22	-12.5	Could have gone better.
Secondary
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Warren	5	1.5	3.5	Mostly run support and a couple open hitches/blanketed deep routes.
Cissoko	1	1	0	"Hey, that guy isn't Michael Floyd."
Floyd	-	-	-	Scrub time only.
Turner	-	-	-	DNP
Woolfolk	-	1.5	-1.5	Almost zero to in coverage. Missed a couple tackles but nothing serious.
Williams	2.5	4	-1.5	Like Brown, got a share of minuses just for being 100 pounds smaller than the guy blocking him.
Emilien	-	-	-	DNP
Kovacs	2	1	1	Hasn't cost Michigan anything yet..
TOTAL	10.5	9	1.5	Almost had the day off.
Metrics
Pressure	10	2	8	Probably why they hardly passed.
Coverage	12	13	-1	Also a reason.
Tackling	18	5	13	No idea if this is generous or what to compare it to or what. I'm just building data here.

So… there you go. I'm still working on the tackling bits, obviously. I wouldn't take the minuses on the safeties too seriously.

Why does this make you less concerned than you were before?

We already knew that Ezeh is the kind of guy to get dragged out of position and open up a 24 yard scramble, and we had a strong suspicion that even though the starting linebackers were poor their backups were worse, and all this bore out. Most of the defensive line played up to expectations except Van Bergen, and Banks may add some additional interior depth going forward. The secondary was par for the course, too, and the tackling was pretty good.

Come on, look at that 36-yard all-run touchdown drive. This is Eastern Michigan!

Is that a question?

This is Eastern Michigan?

Fine, fine, okay, yes. It's not like I expect the defense to be good or anything. It's just that the EMU game didn't reveal anything particularly surprising or new. And ten of their points were on the world's worst pass interference call and a thirty-six yard drive. They gained under 300 yards and Michigan outgained them by 180-some. I'm fine with what happened, mostly.

The most disturbing bits were the zone read breakdowns. How does that happen when you practice against it all day every day? I don't know, but when any EMU QB pulled the ball out he had plenty of space.

Any hope for defensive depth in the future?

In the secondary and at linebacker, no. Leach slotting in ahead of Fitzgerald and Fitzgerald proving that wasn't a crazy decision with some really bad play indicates that there's no cavalry coming in the backups. Michigan is riding with Mouton and Ezeh, like it or not. Pray they improve. (To his credit, Ezeh was better at hitting the hole in this game. Baby steps.)

Meanwhile in the secondary, Michigan went the whole game with the starters until Williams got tweaked and Kovacs returned; no corner other than the starting pair saw a snap until uncharted garbage time, and that didn't even include uber-frosh Justin Turner. I did include converted WR/RB Teric Jones, whose redshirt is burned. Burning that redshirt is a whopping statement about where the secondary depth stands: next to Charlie Weis on a precipice, looking down at disaster.

The line, though, looks like it might pick up another contributor in Greg Banks and at some point you figure they will unleash Will Campbell on short yardage. He was part of the goal line set that saw a few snaps and probably should have been in on a few more. He's a tough guy to move.

So… no on Fitzgerald?

Not yet, at least. Watch the linebacker to the top of the screen (not the guy on the line, the guy lined up on the 32, which is Fitzgerald) here:

Michigan was playing that play to spill all day, spilled it, and Fitzgerald was nowhere to be found. He is not mentally ready to play.

The safeties look halfway competent, don't they?

Um… well… mentioning this will probably doom them forever, but maybe? None of ND's long plays can be blamed on the safeties, though part of that was the defensive scheme and part of that was the ability of Notre Dame to exploit an injured, short Cissoko in his first start against a good offense. And Eastern didn't find anything long. The only play on which a safety got a big negative was the long Western touchdown. Just MAC teams, sure, but by this point in any other season there would have been two or more plays from the safeties that make you groan and clutch your rosary. Obi Ezeh's "so we got that going for us" quote about Woolfolk may be accurate.

Heroes?

The starting defensive line outside of Van Bergen, who didn't do much.

Goats?

All linebackers not named Ezeh, who was decent.

What does it mean for Indiana and the future?

I'll keep it brief since this was a game against Eastern Michgian and you overrate it at your peril: the team is basically what we thought it was. If you want to load up against it and grind down the field you'll have success doing it, though I wonder if teams will manage to score a lot of touchdowns with that sort of approach. Michigan's going to bend a lot; hopefully they won't break.

Greg Robinson is busy installing all sorts of different stuff and slants and various games to cover up for the fact that he's got no depth, two seniors, and three walk-ons contributing. I think we're going to see a lot of instances where the games work and Michigan swarms something and a lot of instances where Michigan gets caught and gashed. There are places to attack this defense, and the safeties are going to have to do a lot of cleanup in Big Ten play.

Is there any upside for these guys? Maybe. It is a new system so Michigan is behind mentally and should improve more than veteran units whose failings are more likely to be physical shortcomings than mental errors. Look at Eastern's long touchdown drive: mental error after mental error. If Michigan can fix those things—or, more conservatively, mitigate them—they appear to have the horsepower to be completely mediocre. Again: getting Ezeh and Mouton up to a level where they are decent is the key to the defense's season.

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Upon Further Review: Offense vs Eastern Michigan

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