devin gardner quarterback possibility

You know those “make your all-time” lists that circulate in the offseason? I’m still making themed teams because it’s easy content and “Make a new website” and “Make HTTV” are in my job description.

Previously:

This week: Position-Switchers!

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Rules: He had to play at least a season or a snap at a significantly different position at the college level (so no ATHs), and BEFORE this position. Jake Ryan’s move from quasi-DE in a 4-3 under to the Mike in an 4-3 over counts; Matt Godin going from 5-tech to DT does not. Neither does moving between safety positions unless you’re a FS who became half-linebacker. Also no pro moves (sorry Cato June), or playing a second, non-primary position (sorry Charles Woodson) even if you won the Heisman (sorry, Tennessee fans, but he did).

Cutoff Point: Recruited Post-Bo, so I don’t have to remember positions from when I was ten (sorry Tripp Welborne).

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Quarterback: Devin Gardner

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“Wonky throwing motion” indeed. [Eric Upchurch]

In between the times he wore 7 and that awful Nebraska day, Michigan of the Denard era couldn’t resist getting one of their best athletes on the field. So despite no backup quarterback plan other than Russell Bellomy for Denard Robinson (who’d been knocked out for that nerve in the elbow before), for 2012 Mr. Gardner was shipped off to receiver. At first it looked to be a good idea: Gardner had touchdown passes in his first three games (Bama, Air Force, and UMass). He wasn’t a great route runner but with Denard getting the ball every play the receivers got a lot of one-on-one matchups, and Gardner was a big dude. Then Denard went out and we had to wait until the following week before the Devin at QB era could begin. The receiver experiment thus ended at 16 receptions, 266 yards, and 4 touchdowns.

As for quarterback, the end of that 2012 season was magnificent enough to portend great things, but the offensive line was never enough. Two virtuoso performances against Ohio State and Notre Dame as a redshirt junior, then a senior year of a lot of heart but a broken body and a coaching situation. If we do a “man I feel sorry for that guy” team he’ll be back.

Other candidates: Nope.

[Hit THE JUMP unless you’re an Iowa safety then you probably don’t want to know what’s next]

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This hurt. [Fuller]

Longtime readers will know the MGoBlog policy on sacking: sacks and sack yardage should be counted as passing, because they are pass plays, not rushing, as the NCAA and thus everybody else is wont to do. Counting sacks as passing leads to a better understanding of success and where yards come from, and prevents problems like the computer in the NCAA videogames passing every play because the sacks that generates keep making the rushing numbers look progressively more awful.

For the Hail to the Victors preview books (kickstarter coming soon) each year we put these "At-a-Glance" boxes into the opponent previews, complete with offensive and defensive stats that we've adjusted for this. Having done the calculations for that, I thought I'd share them with you.

First, the difference it makes to passing stats:

2013 Passing Unadjusted Sack-Adjusted
Team Pass Att Pass Yds YPA Rk Sacks Sack Yds YPA Rk
Indiana 470 3680 7.83 2nd 18 121 7.29 1st
Ohio State 368 2846 7.73 3rd 22 135 6.95 2nd
Penn State 409 3110 7.60 4th 22 135 6.90 3rd
Michigan 395 3221 8.15 1st 36 270 6.85 4th
Wisconsin 355 2562 7.22 6th 16 94 6.65 5th
Illinois 455 3452 7.59 5th 30 231 6.64 6th
Iowa 375 2562 6.83 10th 15 61 6.41 7th
Michigan State 430 2964 6.89 9th 17 127 6.35 8th
Nebraska 378 2557 6.76 11th 17 140 6.12 9th
Northwestern 382 2726 7.14 8th 36 198 6.05 10th
Minnesota 267 1925 7.21 7th 27 170 5.97 11th
Purdue 426 2590 6.08 12th 38 265 5.01 12th

By counting sacks as passing Michigan drops from 8.15 yards per attempt (good for the best passing team in the conference last year) to a more realistic 6.85 YPA, dropping them to fourth. Minnesota's passing game dropped from middling to awful, Iowa's climbed from the bottom to the middle.

And the difference to running stats:

2013 Rushing Unadjusted Sack-Adjusted
Team Rushes Rush Yds YPC Rk Sacks Sack Yds YPA Rk
Ohio State 635 4321 6.80 1st 22 135 7.27 1st
Wisconsin 557 3689 6.62 2nd 16 94 6.99 2nd
Indiana 458 2422 5.29 3rd 18 121 5.78 3rd
Nebraska 584 2804 4.80 4th 17 140 5.19 4th
Illinois 411 1668 4.06 10th 30 231 4.98 5th
Minnesota 586 2538 4.33 5th 27 170 4.84 6th
Northwestern 507 2069 4.08 9th 36 198 4.81 7th
Penn State 501 2088 4.17 8th 22 135 4.64 8th
Michigan State 569 2433 4.28 6th 17 127 4.64 9th
Iowa 556 2338 4.21 7th 15 61 4.43 10th
Michigan 498 1634 3.28 11th 36 270 4.12 11th
Purdue 319 805 2.52 12th 38 265 3.81 12th

Michigan's awful running game is still awful, but it no longer looks like the Scheelhaase option-running game was a disaster. Ohio State's 7.27 YPC isn't just first among the conference; OSU and Wisconsin were the #1 and #2 rushing offenses in the country. Michigan: 115th out of 125 teams.

This isn't perfect since quarterback scrambles still can't be pulled out of rushing stats, but that's not so big of a deal considering a running QB should be contributing to your rushing success.

[Jump for Devin Garder's passing season and profiles of next year's opponents]

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Orange indeed. (Title ref)

Every week we take this opportunity to do a roundtable obsessing about something, usually quarterback, center, non-Gallon receivers, and non-Gordon safety. This week we obsess about all those things.

The Depth Chart:

  • Center of everything: Brian Cook
  • Wide retweeter: Blue in South Bend
  • Fiddycentback: Seth Fisher
  • Left guardian of the database: Mathlete
  • Weaksnide lifehacker: Ace Anbender
  • Five-technical questions for you: Heiko Yang

And the question:

What position on each side will be most critical to the 2013 team's success?

Seth: We took this to mean the spot you're most focusing on with this team, not which is most important in general (otherwise everyone would say quarterback and associate editor/business manager). Also to avoid obvious things that are obvious, it is stipulated that all are agreed Gardner hurting ouches are the very worst things.

Brian: Even without the possibility of injury this is Gardner by a mile. On one hand, here's a guy who got moved to wide receiver last year and has five games under his belt. He was recruited as a dual threat guy and won't really be one.

On a couple others, dude would have had a top ten passer efficiency mark last year if he'd had enough attempts, and without any cupcakes padding out his stats. Except Iowa. He's spent the offseason hanging out with QB gurus from coast to coast, impressing NFL scouts as a top junior QB, not getting kicked out for boozing, that sort of thing.

Blue in South Bend: Outside of Devin Gardner (who remains the correct answer no matter how you phrase the question), I'm keeping an eye on the tight ends. The depth chart is really thin with the departures of Mike Kwiatkowski and Brandon Moore. They don't really have a game-ready "U" TE, and AJ Williams is the only guy on the roster who has shown the ability to kinda sorta sustain a block (and even that is... yeah). Michigan ran more 2+ TE sets and almost no 0 TE sets with Denard completely out of the lineup last year, and the odds are pretty good that Borges wants to get back to that this year.

Fuller - 8358871915_ddf4ee726a_o
But can he kinda-sorta catch? (Fuller)
P.S. What do you think of my new caption macro? Captions!

He may either have to get creative (such as putting Dennis Norfleet on Terry Richardson's shoulders under a large trenchcoat jersey) or abandon some aspects of the playbook before even taking them for a test-drive. I think we'll see some position switching to deepen the ranks, and we'll see a guy or two (cough cough Wyatt Shallman cough) moved to a U-TE/H-back role to give them some more flexibility.

On the defensive side, the answer is Devin Gardner. Beyond that, strong safety is worth watching. I really like Jarrod Wilson, and he looks good in the back end, but I don't know whether he can fill Jordan Kovacs' slack in run support. I'm sure I'm not the only one who thinks he's more of a free safety. If you re-watch the spring game, you'll notice that Wilson made exactly one tackle, and it was him hopping on Funchess' back until the whistle blew. Neither his recruiting profile nor his 2012 play screams "omnipresent tackling machine." If it becomes a problem, will it force Mattison to run more 'even' coverage schemes (cover-2 or quarters)? Will Thomas Gordon's nose for the football be enough to compensate? Or will we just return to the days where 40 yard running plays are a thing that happen sometimes? SO MANY QUESTIONS AND ITS STILL JULY.

But seriously... Devin Gardner.

Seth: Yes, Gardner Gardner Gardevinygardner has to work out but I don't know what you guys are so worried about that occurring. Most fears have been answered. Why was he moved to receiver? Because they wanted his athleticism on the field, and you know he was taking QB reps all that time. What about the awful spring games? He had a good one. No experience? He started last year against four groups of relatively competent human beings plus Iowa and put up a 160 QB rating. Can he match Denard's production? In five starts against better competition last year his metrics were better than Robinson's. Can his superior passing ability make up for Denard's effect on the running game? In the three games Brian bothered to UFR the running plays with Devin at QB indeed weren't as effective but the passing made up the difference and then some:

[Hit the jump for the table, Mathlete, Heiko and Ace]